5-16-10

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LinexGroup

4* on Florida (R.Nolasco) -1.5

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Stat Fox Betting Trend...

In May to date 9-0 Record
Any Two Teams with Winning Percentage that has opening Run line of 10 or Higher - Play The Under

5/16/2010

Minn Twins @ Ny Yankess - Opening Line 10.5 O/U
PLAY THE UNDER

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Paul Leiner Free Pick for Today

Sunday May 16, 2010

Game: Rangers vs Blue Jays

Prediction: 25* Over 8.5 Tor/Tex

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Seabass Free Play

MLB

Seattle Mariners (LEE)

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Maddux Sports

Today's Free Pick is Bos & Orl Under 189.5

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Free Silver Key Pick for Sunday ML Baseball

Philadelphia Hamels -L -145 over MILWAUKEE (8:05 et)

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Deano's HRC Smart Choice* Best Bets|Your Capping Agent-May 16th

Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)

Expected Betting Chart:
********************
2/5/8/10 DIMES
********************
Selections:

[976] Tampa Bay |5?|-135|B+0|Network N/A|1:40 pm EST

[966] Milwaukee |5?|+132|B+0|ESPN|8:05 pm EST

[970] New York |2?|-141|B+0|TBS|1:05 pm EST

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Re: 5-16-10

Ats baseball lock club 5/16

4 Units on Texas (-120)
3 Units on OVER 10.5 Minnesota/NY Yankees,
3 Units on Atlanta (-120)

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SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +1.61 over SAN FRANCISCO

Barry Zito is 5-1 with an ERA of 1.90 and it’s just not possible for this very average pitcher to sustain those numbers much longer. We saw signs of the real Zito in his last start against San Diego in which he walked seven batters in five frames and was constantly behind in the count. The real Barry Zito has average stuff at best and when he falls behind hitters he virtually has no shot because then he has to come in with a fastball that tops off at 85MPH. Zito can never be trusted laying this much juice, as he’s simply not that good and the Astros have already seen him once this season. The Astros are playing better even though they lost the first two games of this series. Prior to that they swept the Cards and won four straight and they most certainly have a legit shot at winning today. Brett Myers always gives the Astros a shot. He’s pitched at least six full innings in all seven of his starts and has gone seven full in four of those. He’s allowed two runs in three of his last four starts and he throws strikes. We find some tremendous value here going against Zito and that’s all there is to it. Play Houston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).


Washington +1.21 over COLORADO

Just the fact that Jeff Francis hasn’t pitched in the majors since September of ’08 makes the Nats worthy of a wager. Francis started just two games this year for the Tulsa Drillers in Double-A ball and allowed 11 hits in 11 innings. Not bad but this isn’t Double-A ball. He’s being used here because the Rocks are coming off a DH yesterday and they’re paying him nearly six million this year, thus, this call-up may be a bit premature. The Nats are a dangerous squad that plays hard every game. They can score in bunches and they surely could get to Francis early. Scott Olsen has been terrific with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.85 ERA over his last three starts. Olsen has great command and seldom walks anyone and in this day and age of the base on balls, a pitcher that throws strikes always has a good chance of winning. Olsen and the Nats have better than a good chance against Francis. Play: Washington +1.21 (Risking 2 units).


Philadelphia –1½ +1.15 over MILWAUKEE

The Phillies are absolutely killing it in Milwaukee with 28 hits and 17 runs over the first two games of this series. Now they’ll face Doug Davis, perhaps the Brewers worst starter and behind Davis is a bullpen that is both gassed and extremely toxic. Davis has been getting rocked every start and that’s because he’s always behind in the count and his stuff is way below average. He comes in to this one with a BAA of .343, an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 1.98. He’s also had a favorable schedule in which he’s faced the Padres twice, the Cubbies twice, the Dodgers in L.A. and the Braves. He’s been smoked against those light-hitting clubs at favorable parks and now he’s about to walk into some real fire. Cole Hamels is coming around for sure. He’s not allowed a single jack in three straight games with two of those being at homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park. He’s struck out 49 hitters in 43 innings and that bodes well here against a Brewer team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Philly is hot while the Brewers have been awful since opening day. Things surely don’t figure to change here. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).


NY YANKEES –1½ +1.30 over Minnesota

Something happens to the Twins when they go to Yankee Stadium and whatever it is, it’s about as ugly as it gets. They turn into the worst team in baseball and in fact, they’ve lost an incredible 29 out of its last 34 trips here. They were thumped in games one and two of this series and that’s with Liriano and Baker on the hill. Now they’ll send out a real stiff in Nick Blackburn and the Twins have already mentally lost this game before it even starts. Blackburn comes up with a good game about once every 10 starts. He has a 3-1 record with an ERA 0f 4.76 but those stats are as misleading as anyone’s. Blackburn has already surrendered seven bombs in 39 frames and at this Stadium against this team you can expect plenty more fireworks. The league is hitting .313 off Blackburn and that’s after facing KC twice, the White Sox and Baltimore. The Yanks have won 50 of its last 61 home games. Does it really matter who is pitching for the Yanks? We think not. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +1.20 (Risking 2 units).


Chicago +1.15 over SAN JOSE

Both teams are locked and loaded. Both are confident and both just knocked off two very good teams. The difference, however, between the Red Wings and the Blackhawks is that Chicago is younger, quicker, hungrier and its defense is wickedly sharp at moving the puck out. The Sharks road here has been a little easier especially after Detroit went a tough seven games against the Coyotes. The Blackhawks special teams can be a difference in any series. Their postseason penalty-killing efficiency is 88%, plus they have three short-handed goals in the playoffs. With Toews, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa, the Blackhawks are exceptionally dangerous on the power play. Their road power-play efficiency has been 32.1% (9-for-28) in the postseason. They're 5-1 on the road in the playoffs, outscoring the opposition 26-14. This is not the Blackhawks' first rodeo. They were in the conference finals last spring and learned much in their series with Detroit. Still, this isn't the same Sharks team that bowed out in the first round last season. Ten of those 20 skaters are gone but in what is a close contest and could easily be decided by the goalies, the pooch is the flavor of the day in this series and you really have to admire how the Blackhawks won three games in Vancouver in impressive fashion last series. Play: Chicago +1.15 (Risking 2 units).


Montreal +1.20 over PHILADELPHIA

It’s hard to go against the Habs after they knocked off both Washington and Pittsburgh. They’re actually taking a step down in class here but in no way are they the more talented squad. However, they possess the hottest goalie on the planet and they catch the Flyers after a hugely emotional game seven in which they were down 3-0 in both the series and the game and came back to win game seven, 4-3. We all saw what happened to both Montreal and Detroit in their first game back after a seven game series and it wasn’t pretty. Well, the Flyers returning is going to be extra difficult because of its epic comeback and because they’re back on the ice with only one day off. This isn't the same Montreal team we saw earlier in the season. The Canadiens have come together, buying into coach Jacques Martin's stingy defensive philosophy. The Montreal net seems to be protected by two layers of titanium. First, an opponent must find ways to get the puck through the fortress-like defense the Canadiens can construct around the net with their superb positioning, active sticks and exceptional shot-blocking. They're very good on special teams and they just always seem to find ways to get the big goal or big kill when they need it. Play: Montreal +1.20 (Risking 2 units).

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DAVE MALINSKY

PITTSBURGH over CHICAGO CUBS

Sometimes the formula for success can be a simple one – a 15-22 Chicago team, with a starting pitcher that has gone 0-3/6.50 over his last three starts, can not possibly be in this price range. And with the market rate as high as it is, we do not have to invest a lot to win a lot. Count us in.

What do the Cubs bring to the table? When Derrek Lee (.230) and Aramis Ramirez (.170) are not producing the offense lacks oomph, and they can not make up for that with speed, with only the Phillies in the N.L. having fewer stolen bases. The defense rates a lowly #27 on our best set of ratings. And Lilly may not be ready yet, with that recent slide particularly marked by the fact that he has only struck out three batters over 13 innings of the last two starts. One of those was a loss in Pittsburgh, so now the Pirates get a quick second look against a repertoire that is far more limited than the way this game is being priced.

Meanwhile the Pirates bring plenty of confidence to the table after winning the first two games in this series, and have an under-valued Ross Ohlendorf taking the hill. Ohlendorf has worked to a solid 11-11/3.88 since coming over from the Yankees, and after being on a pitch count against the Reds earlier in the week is now being given a clean bill of health. He brings more than enough to use in this price range, especially with a hungry team behind him that sits above the Cubs in the standings and will bring a lot of positive energy to Wrigley this afternoon.

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Mike Hook 5/16

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Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Sun, 05/16/10 - 1:10 PM -------------------------------- dime bet ml 954 CIN (+116) SportBet vs 953 STL-------------------------- Analysis: The Cincinnati Reds +116 is the Buried Treasure for Sunday, May 16th.

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Rocketman
5* Yankees
4* San Diego
3* Atlanta
3* Philadelphia

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Prediction machine

No normal play today

but he has Orl by 9.5

Against the Spread Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS
East Orlando Magic Boston Celtics (6.5) 9.5 55.9% Calc -->


Straight-Up Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Favorite Underdog Points For Points Against Win% SU
East Orlando Magic Boston Celtics 99.3 89.8 62.4%


Over/Under Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Better Seed Worse Seed Line Total Points Pick Pick%
East Orlando Magic Boston Celtics 189.5 189.2 UNDER 50.7% Calc -->

Key
65%+ 3X Normal Play
62% - 65% 2X Normal Play
57% - 62% Normal Play
53% - 57% Weak Play (but playable)
< 53% No Pick

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B&S PICKS
1 DIME Washington Nationals +125 ml
1 DIME Cleveland Indians -110 ml
1 DIME Orlando Magic -6 -120 buy hook

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Rudy NYC Sports - MLB 5/16

Sunday's Play:

965 Sunday, 5/16/2010 Milwaukee Brewers/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10 2 units
8:05pm EST @ Milwaukee Brewers