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Kyle Lohse (15 BPV, 0-2-5-0-1 PQS) has seen his strikeouts and walks regress and with batters getting better wood against him this year, the results haven’t been pretty. He’s needed 197 pitches to get through his last nine innings, so he clearly hasn’t found it yet. Not that he ever had “it”. Furthermore, the Cardinals are sinking faster than LeBron James’ chances of staying in Cleveland and if things don’t change soon something is going to give in St. Louis. As talked about in one of our earlier blogs, the Cards made a huge error in hiring Mark McGwire as its hitting coach. One can only imagine what the players are thinking when getting instructions from a guy that had a career batting average before steroids of .243. It’s like getting Shakespeare lessons from a high school dropout. It’s ludicrous and don’t think it doesn’t have a negative effect because it clearly has. The Cards have scored three runs or less in eight of its last 12 games. They just lost five of six games to Houston and Cincinnati and were swept by the Astros. Over its last dozen games the Cards are batting .231. Tony LaRussa is the most overrated manager ever. He’s had success only because of his pitching coach, Dave Duncan, who has taken pitchers off the scrap heap for years and made them effective. The players are being instructed by a liar and a cheat, (McGwire) or a guy with zero credibility. He was hired because he was going broke and needed a job so his pal LaRussa stepped up for him. The Cards are a go against team right now and you can be sure that the front office is putting pressure on LaRussa about McGwire. In other words, LaRussa is having a Jack Daniels right now. Kyle Lohse and the Cardinals laying significant juice is a huge risk that is not worth taking. Play: Washington +1.45 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.80 over PHILADELPHIA (1st 5 innings)
It sure is tough to pull the trigger on the Pirates over the Phillies but this one is all about taking back a big price on Charlie Morton over Kyle Kendrick. Morton (83 BPV, 0-0-4-4-4 PQS) is due a break. His 9.19 ERA is downright unfair. He’s thrown three rock solid games in a row has lasted at least six innings in all of them. Morton has 27 K’s in 31 frames. He throws strikes and when you throw strikes you always have a chance to win. So, while the line-up he’ll face tonight needs no introduction, there’s a great chance the Pirates will score some runs against Kendrick (5 BPV, 3-1-3-3-2 PQS). Kendrick hasn’t been very impressive this season nor has he ever been. He has yet to show any skills over an extended period of time. He can implode at any time and is likely to even more at home. In fact, in three home starts, Kendrick has a BAA of .311 and an ERA of 6.59. Furthermore, the Phillies might get caught napping here after a five game trip to Colorado and Milwaukee in which they won four times including a three-game sweep this past weekend. This is a vulnerable spot against a vulnerable pitcher and the price seals the deal. Because this choice is largely based on going against Kendrick, we’re going to play this one in the first half. Play: Pittsburgh +1.80 in the first five innings).
Jr. O'Donnell (RedZone Sports) free internet play:
Analysis:
JR O going powerful tonight as the Red Hot Florida Marlins, who have steam rolled 4 straight, grab #5 tonight behind Volstad. The Marlins have been hitting on a torrid pace, .325 BAA the last few games and have scored at least 8 runs in this stretch. Edwin Jackson has been awful and tonight his woes continue as he allows a ton of runs on the road and has a 13+ ERA in 3 road starts.
The -150 lead here is about as high as our camp will go. However, Jackson, 0-3 and with a 10+ ERA vs. Florida and the Marlins red hot right now, all add up to an easy FISH win. JR's power ratings on this baby have the Marlins a solid 2 run winner.
On Monday the MLB Free play is on the New York Mets. Game 903 at 7:10 eastern. The Mets have lost 5 of the last 6 after a solid 10-1 streak earlier in the season. On Sunday they were down big, but showed good resolve in gettting the score to a respectable 10-8. Tonight they send one of their better starters this year M.Pelfrey to the mound. The Mets have won 5 of his 7 starts and he has a fine 3.21 era. Atlanta counters with D. Lowe. In his starts this year Lowe has been mediocre at home with a 5.49 era. When he faces the Mets he has had little personal success of late with a 7.65 era. The Mets have won all 3 games this season vs an Atlanta team that really struggles in divisional play with a 3-9 record. The Culprit has been the offense. The Braves are hitting just .210 vs fellow division rivals and average just a shade over 2 runs per game. The Mets even with the losing streak are hitting over .290 the past 7 games and are over .500 as a road dog in this range. The Capper comes from the database. What we want to do is play against certain home teams off a home favored win of 5 or more runs that scored 10 or more runs in vs an opponent who scored 5 or more runs in a road dog loss. These home teams are 3-12. Look for the Mets to get game 1 tonight. On Monday I have a Huge 5* MLB 96% Diamond Cutter system that wins by over 3 runs per game. Our team has a Huge pitching advantage and will open up a can on their opponent. In the NBA I have another never before seen Cutting edge NBA Playoff system that will get the dough. Jump on these guaranteed Plays now and start you week with the cash as MLB Stayed Hot cashing the Big totals play yet again On Sunday. For there free play take the Mets tonight. RV
Craig Trapp comp
NBA | May 17
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Total 210½ un-105
Under 210.5 PHO/LAL: Two teams with a week off spells trouble for timing and outside shooting. Just as we saw in game 1 of East Conference Finals teams take at least a half to get their feet under them. Lakers are coming off a series in which they played another run and gun team in UTAH and they slowed them down and really took advantage of them. Look for LAL to run the triangle offense and use close to control this game. PHO will make shots late but not enough to push this one over!
Jimmy Boyd comp
MLB | May 17
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -130
I'll back the O's behind Bradley Bergesen tonight. Bergesen has been electric over his last 3 starts, going 3-0 with an ERA of 2.33, and two of those wins came against Boston and Minnesota. It is also worth noting that the Orioles are 11-4 in Bergesen's last 15 home starts, 8-1 in his last 9 starts as a home favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, Kyle Davies is struggling for the Royals. He's posted a 7.15 ERA in 4 road starts and his ERA is an even higher 7.80 over his last 3 starts. Davies also carries a 7.94 ERA in 3 career starts against the O's. It is also worth noting that the Royals are just 1-5 in Davies' last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Royals are just 19-48 in the last 67 meetings in this matchup, including 4-11 in their last 15 meetings in Baltimore. Bet the O's.
Tom Freese comp
MLB | May 17
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles -130
Baltimore starter Brad Bergesen has allowed 5 runs total in his last 3 starts all of which were wins. The Orioles are 6-2 their last 8 home games vs. a team with a
win percentage of less than 40%. Baltimore is 11-4 their last 15 games home games vs. the Royals. Kansas City is 58-121 their last 179 games vs. AL West teams and they are 3-8 their last 11 games overall. The Royals are 1-6 their last 7 games vs. righty starters. Kansas City is 16-35 their last 51 games off a win. PLAY ON BALTIMORE -
Steve Merril comp
MLB | May 17
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Total 9 un+105
Baltimore and Kansas City start a brief two-game set on Monday night. The Orioles send Brad Bergesen to the hill who has improved a bunch since returning from AAA. The righty has won three straight starts against the Red Sox, Twins, and Mariners. Bergesen has given up five runs over his last 19.3 innings of work. He defeated the Royals last season in Baltimore giving up one run and seven hits in seven innings pitched. Yuniesky Betancourt (1-6), Billy Butler (1-4), Mitch Maier (1-4), Alberto Callaspo (0-3) and Scott Podsednik (0-2) all have struggled against Bergesen. The Royals offense has struggled on the road scoring just 4.2 runs per game. At night, the Royals offense hasn’t done much as they average just 3.3 runs per game.
Kansas City’s Kyle Davies may be rounding into form. Davies sandwiched two good starts in between a shellacking in Texas. Last time out he gave up two runs and six hits in five innings to Cleveland. Davies also threw six good innings against the Rays in Tampa on May 1st. The righty lost a 3-2 game against the Orioles last season giving up three runs and six hits in seven innings of work. Cesar Izturis (2-8), Garrett Atkins (2-8), Ty Wigginton (0-3) and Luke Scott (0-2) have poor numbers against Davies. With two improving pitchers facing a pair of struggling lineups, we expect a low-scoring game and recommend a play on the Under in this spot.
Rocky Atkinson Free pick
501 PHO 6.5 (-110) Bodog vs 502 LAL
Analysis:
Phoenix @ LA Lakers 9:00 PM EST
Play On: Phoenix +6 1/2
Phoenix is 8-2 SU and ATS in all playoff games this year. Phoenix is 22-9 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Phoenix is 37-19 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more. Phoenix is 23-6 SU and 22-7 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more in the 2nd half of the season. Phoenix is scoring 109.7 points per game overall this year and 107.2 points per game on the road this year. Phoenix has won 6 games in a row heading into tonight's action. My power ratings has Phoenix to win this game outright by 5 points tonight! We'll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Marc Lawrence Free pick
930 OAK (-140) vs 929 SEA
Analysis: Play On: Oakland vs Rowland-Smith
Note: When the A's open a two game series with division rival Seattle in Oakland this evening they will will do so knowing they've captured 12 of the last 20 games in this series. In addition, Mariners right hander Ryan Rowland-Smith enters with a rocky 5.4 ERA in his four road starts this season and is 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA in his career road starts in May. Stay at home with Oakland here tonight.
Don't make a move on Monday night's NBA playoff game until you learn of the Awesome Angle inside the game that has won the money 91% of the time in Game One playoff situations since 1990. Get it now and 'learn while you earn' once again with Marc tonight!
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