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Orlando (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) at Boston (11-3 SU and ATS)
The red-hot Celtics aim to complete a shocking sweep of the second-seeded Magic in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals at TD Garden. Boston hammered a desperate Orlando team Saturday night, allowing just 12 first-quarter points on the way to a 94-71 bashing as a 3½-point home favorite to take an ostensibly insurmountable 3-0 series lead. Glen Davis (17 points) led a balanced attack, as six Celtics scored in double figures, with Rajon Rondo netting a dozen assists to go with his 11 points. Boston, the No. 4 seed in the East, also forced 17 turnovers and committed just nine. Boston has now won six in a row SU and ATS against the teams that posted the top two regular-season records, taking Games 4, 5 and 6 from the top-seeded Cavs before snagging the first three from the Magic.
Orlando had only three players score in double figures Saturday, and none were named Dwight Howard, who had a meager seven points and seven rebounds. Vince Carter and Jameer Nelson scored 15 apiece, but the Magic shot a dismal 36.9 percent (24 of 65), hitting just 8 of 30 from three-point land (26.7 percent). Stan Van Gundy’s troops allowed the Celtics to shoot 46.6 percent overall (34 of 73) and 54.5 percent from long distance (6 of 11). No team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, in 93 previous opportunities. Boston is 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in the last six meetings with Orlando, and the Celts’ SU and ATS win in Game 3 halted a 7-0 ATS tear by the visitor and the underdog in this rivalry, a streak that dated to Game 7 of last year’s second-round playoff series – won by Orlando. Doc Rivers’ squad is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 home starts against the Magic. The SU winner has cashed in each of Boston’s last 24 games overall, including all 14 playoff contests, and the SU winner is 18-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 19 contests. Boston is 30-18 SU this season at the Garden but just 18-29-1 ATS. In the playoffs, though, the Celtics are 6-1 SU and ATS at home. Orlando is 29-17 (26-19-1 ATS) on the highway this season and has won 12 of its last 15 away from home (10-4-1 ATS), with Saturday’s meltdown marking its first SU and ATS road loss in this year’s playoffs. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference finals tilts, but despite the debacle in this series, they remain on several positive pointspread sprees, including 20-8-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 10-4-1 after a non-cover, 18-7-1 after a day off and 16-7 against Atlantic Division foes. Along with their 11-3 ATS mark in the postseason (6-0 last six), the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 6-1 at home, 4-0 in conference finals contests, 6-0 after a day off, 7-1 against the Southeast Division and 5-1 laying points. Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 8-2-1 overall (6-1 last seven), 40-12-1 after a non-cover, 28-9 after a SU loss, 9-3 as a pup (all on the road) and 37-13-1 after a day off. Likewise, Boston is on “under” rolls of 5-1 overall (4-0 last four), 10-2 in conference finals contests (6-1 last seven), 5-1 after a day off and 6-2 as a playoff chalk. Finally, the total has stayed low in 10 of the last 11 Celtics-Magic clashes overall, including six of seven this season, with all three games of this series falling short of the posted number. Also, the last five meetings between these two in Boston have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (24-21) at Tampa Bay (32-12)
The Red Sox, winners of five of their last six, head to Tropicana Field for a key three-game set with right-hander Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.26 ERA) on the hill opposite the Rays’ Wade Davis (4-3, 3.35). Boston took two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, capped by Sunday’s 8-3 victory. Still, the Red Sox remain just 4-7 in their last 11 road games and 8-20 in their last 28 on the road against teams with a winning percentage of .600.
Tampa, which has the best record in baseball and leads Boston by 8½ games in the A.L. East, has won eight of its last nine, including four of five on a road trip that ended Sunday with a 10-6 win in Houston. The Rays are on several hot streaks, including 38-14 overall, 123-56 at home, 23-6 against A.L. East teams and 12-5 in series openers. The Rays swept a four-game set in mid-April in Boston, dominating the Red Sox in outscoring them 24-9. Also, the Rays have taken 17 of the last 23 series clashes in Tampa (playoffs included). Buchholz is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in three road starts this season, allowing just four earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. He’s coming off Wednesday’s 3-2 home win over Minnesota, allowing two runs on five hits in eight innings, striking out seven and walking just one. With Buchholz on the hill, the Red Sox are just 2-8 on the road against winning teams, but 7-0 in his last seven road starts, 7-0 in his last seven series openers, 9-3 in his last 12 after four days off and 7-3 in his last 10 against A.L. East teams. Buccholz faced the Rays on April 17 and gave up four runs (none earned) on three hits over five innings, but suffered the 6-5 home loss. He’s 2-2 with a 2.01 ERA in five career starts versus Tampa Davis beat the Yankees on Wednesday in the Bronx, giving up two runs on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings of a 10-6 victory. Tampa has won five of his last seven starts, including an April 16 win in Boston when he gave up one run on two hits over five innings of a 3-1 victory. In his only previous career start against the Red Sox – last September at Fenway Park – Davis got rocked, allowing eight runs in 2 2/3 innings of a 9-1 loss. Davis is 2-2 with a 4.12 ERA in four starts at The Trop this season. For the Red Sox, the under is on surges of 23-7-1 as road ‘dogs, 33-17-3 as ‘dogs anywhere and 4-1-1 when Buchholz starts as a pup, but they are on “over” runs of 5-0 on Monday, 5-2-2 in series openers, 8-3-1 in Buchholz’s last 12 starts overall and 4-1 when Buchholz pitches on Monday. Tampa has stayed below the total in 15 of 22 overall, eight straight at home, five of seven in series openers and 35 of 55 at home against losing teams, but the Rays are also on “over” streaks of 10-3 on Monday and 5-1 against A.L. East teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over has cashed in three of the last four matchups in Florida.
The Celtics look to close out the series and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Boston is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-7). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, MAY 24
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST
Game 513-514: Orlando at Boston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 123.073; Boston 135.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 12 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 7; 188
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-7); Under
John Harrison - Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +160 (.25 UNITs)
Nolan Fernandez - BOSTON RED SOX +118
Dave Eckstein - Cinncinatti Reds -185 (2 UNITS)
Chad Greene - Toronto Blue Jays/LA Angels UNDER 9
Richie Parker - Tampa Bay Rays -135
100* Play Cincinnati (-175) over PittsburghGame starts at 7:10 PM EST Pittsburgh has lost 22 of the last 25 road games as an underdog of +150 to +175 and they have also lost 4 of the last 5 games when playing on a Monday. Pittsburgh has lost 28 of the last 35 road games after having lost four or five of the last seven games and pitcher, Brian Burres has an ERA of 7.43 in road games this season. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50* Play Toronto (+110) over LA AngelsGame starts at 10:10 PM EST Toronto has won 8 of the last 10 road games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and pitcher, Brett Cecil has won 5 consecutive games vs. AL West Division Opponents. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday NHL Hockey Plays 25* Play Philadelphia (-190) over Montreal Disclaimer:
Steven Budin-CEO
MONDAY'S PICK
The Greek Syndicate has a 25 Dime play on Boston in today's contest at home againet Orlando. As this play is releasehd at 5:30 AM Eastern, the Celtics are -7 to -7 1/2 points in Las Vegas and offslore in the game. In either case, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point on Boston as insurance.
Time Game Best Bets *** Selection
7:05 p.m. Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
(L) John Danks (3-3) vs. (R) Justin Masterson (0-4)
Chicago White Sox -160
10:05 p.m Toronto Blue Jays at LA Angels of Anaheim
(L) Brett Cecil (3-2) vs. (L) Joe Saunders (3-5)
Toronto Blue Jays +105
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