5-24-10

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Re: 5-24-10

TheSportsCapper Baseball

Play Boston (+115) over Tampa Bay (TOP MLB PLAY)

Play Toronto (+110) over LA Angels (BONUS MLB PLAY)

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Outlaw Sports Advisors

Rays -125
Angels -125

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VEGAS EXPERTS
We’ll back the Rays tonight at home against Boston, as Tampa Bay has had great success against the Red Sox here at home. In the last three years, Tampa is 16-6 against the Red Sox here, and they start Wade Davis who shut down Boston to just one run over five innings in his only start against them his year. Buchholz was roughed up for four runs over five innings in his lone 2010 meeting, and we still don’t trust the Boston offense enough to beat a good pitcher on the road.

Tip of the day Play on: Tampa Bay Rays

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THE PREZ' MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY

(957) TORONTO (CECIL) at (958) LA ANGELS (SAUNDERS) 10:05 PM
Weather: Sunny and cool with temps in the low 60's at first pitch. Winds blowing in from rightfield at 10 mph

Joe Saunders has found his command over his last three outings and in his last two trips to the mound he's offered evidence the control on his off-speed stuff is back. The Angels lefty handcuffed the A's with a four-hit complete game shutout two starts back and then was just as impressive on Wednesday in Chicago where he allowed one run on four hits with two walks and four strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings of work. Saunders 4.1/9 BB ratio was the cause of his April struggles but a start against the Blue Jays tonight offers him a chance to string together a third straight QS. The southpaw posted a 2.55 ERA over his final eight starts last year, rallying for his second consecutive 16-win season; and if he has found the arm slot that allowed him to dominate in the final two months of '09, Toronto hitters will find it tough surfing tonight in Anaheim.

The Blue Jays have been miserable against left-handers this season recording a league low .565 OPS in 350 at-bats. They rank dead last with a batting average of .191 and have scored a paltry 32 runs against southpaws in 31 games. The Toronto offense has but 28 extra-base hits in 350 official at-bats against lefties and have won three of nine games in starts against lefties because of their pitching, not hitting. Give Sanders a good chance to find his way through six-to-seven innings tonight against an offense that scored 12 runs on Sunday afternoon at hitter-friendly Chase Field.

While the Jays have struggled in games against lefties, their own southpaw starter, Brett Cecil, should not be overlooked. Cecil raised eyebrows in early May taking a perfect game into the 7th inning against the Indians, an outright dominating performance of 10 strike outs, 2 walks, 1 base hit, and 1 earned run through eight innings of work. The Blue Jays’ prospect, like most young pitchers struggled with the long ball and walks in 2009, allowing 1.64 HR/9 and 3.66 BB/9. While he did have strong strike out numbers in Low-A (10.15 K/9), High-A (9.58 K/9), AA (10.08 K/9) and AAA (9.10 K/9) in the 2008 season, Cecil experienced a drastic drop in his K/9 last season in AAA (5.88 K/9) and at the MLB level (6.65 K/9) but has since improved his changeup and raised his swing and miss ratio by nearly 5 percent in and out of the strikezone by being more aggressive with his fastball/change-up mix.

How much fun is Cecil having with his new found command, velocity and improved change up? The Jays lefty performed his best Mister Magoo impersonation in his last start against Seattle. Cecil forgot his eyeglasses back in Toronto so he pitched against the Mariners without them.

According to the Toronto Sun, “We were out in the bullpen when I told John (Buck, the catcher),” Cecil said. “I said ‘This should be fun ... I don’t have my glasses.’ I think John was pretty worried he was going to put down one finger (the fastball signal) and I was going to throw a curve.”

It should be noted that Cecil’s lens correction is fairly mild and he was able to see Buck’s signals, or at least his performance suggested such. Throughout the night, Cecil attacked the strike zone against the light-hitting Mariners and that approach got him into the seventh inning before the M's could cross home plate. It was the lefty’s third win of the season, and more importantly a confidence builder heading into tonight's contest against the Halos. Cecil (3-2) came into the Seattle contest off two sub-par outings, so to see the young southpaw relaxed enough to bounce back from the two poor efforts, this after taking his perfect game into the seventh inning in Cleveland, is a promising sign and evidence that the young hurler believes he belongs. Cecil got just what he needed working a quality start into the seventh inning against the M's, allowing two runs, handing the game over to the bullpen. Expect the same results tonight.

The Angels have had more success against lefties than the Blue Jays, but they have experienced their own struggles in this arena, too. LA has scored only 55 runs in 39 games against LH pitching and have recorded soft 2010 numbers in this situation (.248 BA .303 OBP .409 SLG).

Cecil will face the Angels for the first time offering him the advantage the first two times through the lineup and Saunders is 2-3 with a 3.76 ERA in six lifetime starts against Toronto.

Additionally, playing to the UNDER on road teams (Toronto) with a team batting average of .255 or less on the season after a getaway day win by six runs or more has been a 75% proposition over the last five MLB campaigns. The trend is 45-15 over that span, 8-5 this season and has seen an average of seven runs per game scored in this scenario.

Feel more than comfortable playing UNDER 9 runs tonight in LA.

5* Play on the UNDER 9 runs

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Goodfella

passing today
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PittViper

White Sox -1.5 (+110)
Angels -120

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Eagle eye's soccer play

8025 ENGLAND (AH -1) -125 vs. 8026 Mexico

2* UNITS

11-4-1 (73%)
16.90 Units Overall

3* = 4-0
2* = 3-3
1* = 4-1-1
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CHUCK O'BRIEN
40 DIME Celtics

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Ats basketball 5/24


3 Magic +7

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MATT FARGO
10* Orlando Magic +7

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ATS Baseball Lock Club 5-24


Small card today
Baseball
3 units on Red Sox +120 over Rays

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CHRIS JORDAN
300 UNIT Boston Celtics

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MTi SPORTS
4* Orlando Magic +7.5

We are expecting two things to happen here. First, the Celtics will lose a bit of their edge and the Magic should “man-up” and try to avoid the humiliation of being swept as a favorite in a series.

Dwight Howard suffered a rare poor shooting effort in game three, being held to seven points on 3-of-10 shooting. The Magic are a perfect 8-0 in franchise history as a dog when seeking revenge for a loss in which Dwight Howard shot worse than 33% from the field.

Rashard Lewis was 2-of-8 from the field in game three, which committing four turnovers with no assists. The Magic are 6-0 ATS as a dog when seeking revenge for a loss in which Rashard Lewis had more turnovers than assists and 4-0 ATS as a dog when seeking revenge for a loss in which Rashard Lewis shot worse than 33% from the field.

Jameer Nelson committed four turnovers and had only two assists in game three. Again, this points to the Magic, as they are 5-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) as a road dog when seeking revenge for a loss in which Jameer Nelson had more turnovers than assists.

In fact, no Magic player had more than two assists and they totaled ten for the game. Orlando is 6-0 ATS on the road after a game in which they had fewer than fifteen assists, covering by an average of 13.5 ppg. Their lone straight up loss in this spot came in the second game of last season’s finals when they lost 101-96 in LA in overtime as a 6’-point dog.

Also, the Magic are 4-0 ATS (+10.5 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field, 8-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line, 7-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) off a loss as a dog in which they never led and 6-0 ATS (+6.8 ppg) as a road dog with at most one day of rest when they have lost their last three games SU and ATS.

Boston is 0-6 ATS (-9.7 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers, 0-5 ATS (-14.7 ppg) this season as a home favorite off a win in which they never trailed and 0-5 ATS (-8.3 ppg) at home after a home win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

The Celtics are also 0-12 ATS as a favorite when less than two days rest when they are off a game in which they held their opponent to less than 40% from the field as long as their opponent made at least one three-pointer.

Playing brutal, in-your-face team defense is very tiring and requires a sustained effort. The Celtics have done this well the first three games of the series. Their adrenalin levels will naturally be attenuated here simply because they are up 3-0. The Celtics suffered a “let-down” in the opening round of these playoffs, when they allowed 50% shooting and lost 101-92 to the Heat when up 3-0 in that series.

The Magic went to the NBA finals last year. They were favored to win this series. They had won 14 straight games before this series. They are getting SEVEN points. We’ll take them.

MTi’s FORECAST: Orlando 94 BOSTON 91

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Jim Fiest
4* Over Orlando
3* Boston Celtics
4* Tampa Bay


KIKI Sports??

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Mike Hook Buried Treasure
Magic/Celtics Over 187 single dime bet
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