5-29-10

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Re: 5-29-10

Chuck O'Brien

SATURDAY'S WINNERS
25 DIME: MARLINS (over Phillies) ...
NOTE: Specify only Josh Johnson as Florida's starting pitcher. If Johnson does not start, this play is null and void!

20 DIME: WHITE SOX (over Rays)
NOTE: Specify only John Danks as Chicago's starting pitcher. If Danks does not start, this play is null and void!

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Re: 5-29-10

Derek Mancini

Today's Winners...
20 Dime - Lakers



5 Dime - Red Sox



Analysis by 11 am Eastern.

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Re: 5-29-10

Karl Garrett

Saturday's Selections ...
For Saturday night in the NBA playoffs, 20 Dime Do-or-Die Lock # 2 in a Row goes out on Phoenix pricnd right around a pick at home over the LA Lakers. In basecball I have another 10 Dime winner on Texas with Wilson pitching as they take on Monnesota with Pavano pntching. Remember: both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the release.

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Re: 5-29-10

King Creole | MLB Total Sat, 05/29/10 - 1:05 PM

triple-dime bet 917 BAL / 918 TOR Under 9 Bodog
Analysis:
1:00pm ET / Baltimore Orioles w/ Tillman @ Toronto Blue Jays w/ Cecil
3*** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL

We'll be riding the BEST Under in all of Major League Baseball on Saturday afternoon. JIM WOLF gets the call behind the dish in the Skydome. He comes in with a 1-8 O/U record on the year... but he's actually gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U in his last 8 games! When we play an Umpire 'UNDER"... we also look for a Man in Blue that has a very HIGH strikeout to walk ratio. A Strikeout advances ZERO men who might be on base. A Walk adds FREE baserunners to the equation.... increases the chances of more total runs being scored. Wolf fits the bill. His K/BB ratio on the year is a very high 3.1 to 1. That's an average of 16 'punch outs' per game.... and only 5.1 'free passes. His strike percentage of 64.3% on the season is also #1 in the League.

Average total runs scored in Wolf's games behind the dish is only 5.2. That's only 5 runs per game. I also researched Wolf's recent tendencies in INDOOR stadiums. His record in Domes is 0-4 O/U in the last 3 seasons... with only 4.3 average total runs per game. He's also had very strong tendencies in American League games, going 0-5 O/U in the Junior Circuit this season.... 6-16-1 O/U in the last 2 years... and 11-23-2 O/U in the last 3 years.

Chris Tillman gets the call up from AAA to make the start for the Orioles. He's off a great month in Minor League action... going 4-1 with an ERA of only 2.32. He even pitched a Minor League NO-HITTER in late April. The 22-year-old Tillman had been dominant at Triple-A as of late, posting a 3-1 record with a 2.32 ERA in five starts this month. In that stretch he recorded 26 strikeouts against seven walks. On Monday he became the first Orioles Minor Leaguer this season to hit the five-win mark, tossing six innings of one-run baseball.
A final candidate for the fifth-starter spot this spring, Tillman was sent to Triple-A in and was instructed by the organization to work on fastball command and continue developing his cutter. He tossed a complete-game no-hitter on April 28 at and is considered -- along with Jake Arrieta -- to be one of the team's top pitching prospects.

Brett Cecil has turned things around as of late for the host Blue Jays. He comes in 2 wins in his last 2 starts, (also 0-2 O/U) with an ERA of only 1.31. He's of his BEST start of the year as he went 7+ SHUTOUT innings on the road in Anaheim five days ago in a 6-0 Toronto win. Despite an ERA of 4.10 on the year, Cecil has looked very sharp. If you throw away his pitiful 2 inning stint against the Rangers on May 14th, his ERA is 1.80 since late April. Cecil faced the Orioles twice last season, and went a perfect 2-0. His ERA in those two starts was only 1.74 and the UNDER went a perfect 2-0.

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Re: 5-29-10

Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick

Under 9 runs bet. Arizona and San Francisco

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Re: 5-29-10

Bob Balfe

Marlins / Phillies Under 7

Even though the Phillies technically snapped out of their offensive slump last night, they only manufactured 3 runs and have to face a really confusing pitcher in Josh Johnson tonight and also have their man, Dr. Roy Halladay behind the mound. Do not be intimidated by the low total. This will end up being a 2-0, 2-1 or 3-1 game. Each starter should last deep into the game and not allow multiple-run innings. Take the Under.

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Re: 5-29-10

Sampicks 5/29

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Spain - Segunda Division - 21:00 GMT
LEVANTE - RAYO VALLECANO take LEVANTE to win
Best odds: 1.7

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Re: 5-29-10

Greg Shaker | MLB Total Sat, 05/29/10 - 7:10 PM

dime bet 929 KAN / 930 BOS Under 8.5 BetUS
Analysis: MLB: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox - Royals/RedSox Under 8.5 (Greinke/Buchholz) -115 | Unit Value: 1
Game Date: 5/29/2010
Note: This is a No-Brainer Play for me and I am not going to spend much time talking about it. I love to back good throwers in bounceback opps and Greinke qualifies in both respects tonight at Fenway Park. His last outing at Coors Field was awful and many throwers going there have the same experience. He should be pumped up for this one though facing the Sox and I expect a solid performance who has allowed 3 or fewer runs in his last 7 appearances prior to his last effort. Buchholz has just been Super Duper this year, he is trending very well over his last 3 games, and he has had good success verses these Royals. His last 2 thrown games have been 2 of his best with 14 innings, 15 K's and just 2 BB's. The Wind pattern tonight is out to the fences but not blowing that hard, both Pens are performing well, yes even KC's. At another park we might very well see a number as low as 7 here but Fenway has the perception of being an OVER Venue and that has given us a very good number. The fact is, both hurlers make you hit the ball on the ground a lot and you can't put it out of the park often doing that. Clay has seen just 3 do that this year in 56 innings of work and just once in the last 3 affairs thrown. We already know about the KC thrower and what he makes batters do. My MLB Model shows UNDER 8.5 just over 57% of the time and good enough for Longterm Profit with this play.

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Re: 5-29-10

Dave Cokin

Matchup: St Louis at Chi. Cubs
Time: 4:10 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) OTTAVINO, Adam vs. (R) SILVA, C

Play: St Louis (ML +125)

We have another first-time starter going here as Adam Ottavino makes his debut for the Cardinals. Ottavino has only spotty overall numbers at AAA this season, but he's been much better of late. With the injury to Kyle Lohse, Ottavino gets his chance to carve out a spot in the Cardinals rotation, starting with today's duel against Carlos Silva and the Cubs. Ottavino has pretty good stuff, but he's likely had his progress stalled to some extent by his constant tinkering. There has already been some talk of converting him to a reliever as he owns a four-seamer that gets home in a hurry, and the fact is he doesn't own the versatile arsenal of pitches most starters need to flourish, But Ottavino has a good opportunity to do well here against hitters who have never seen him. It's sure not easy to fade Silva, who is on a monster roll for the Cubs. But I'm big on backing first-time starters, and I'm also getting the better team at decent dog odds. I'll go with the Cardinals to topple the Cubs again today.

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Matchup: Kansas City at Boston
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) GREINKE, Z vs. (R) BUCHHOLZ, C

Play: Boston (ML -130)

Good matchup at Fenway on Saturday with Greinke taking on Buchholz. We all know what Greinke is capable of, but the bottom line is that he's got one win so far this season. Greinke has gotten hurt by poor run support and awful work by the Royals shoddy bullpen. He's also a little off his form right now, and I'm not surprised by this. When even the most talented pitchers feel they have to be perfect to win because of other things that are beyond their control, they often pitch less than their best. Clay Buchholz is looking every bit like the stud he was projected to be a couple years ago. He has ironed out his command issues and he's now trusting his front line stuff. Boston has to take this game seriously after losing the last two nights to the ragtag Royals, and I expect the Red Sox to get back in the win column tonight. The price, because of the presence of Greinke, is about as low as it gets for Boston hosting Kansas City and I'll step in and make the play on the Red Sox.

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Re: 5-29-10

The Vegas Killers (Comps)

John Harrison - Giants -1.5 +135 (2 UNITs)
Nolan Fernandez - Reds -1.5 +120
Richie Parker - LA Dodgers +120 (1.5 Units)
Dave Eckstein - LA Dodgers +120
Chad Greene - White Sox/Rays UNDER 8.5 (2 UNITs)

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Re: 5-29-10

Tony George | NBA Sides Sat, 05/29/10 - 8:30 PM

dime bet 524 PHO -1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 523 LAL
Analysis:

Suns -1.5

Cannot go against a home team which is capable of winning, laying less than a bucket in a building whe€re they have swept LA so far. After losing a heartbreaker on Thursday to LA, the Suns who are 38-18-1 their last 57 at home, shoot the 3 ball better in their own house and look for Steve Nash and company to give LA another defeat in here tonight and make LA try to win the championship at home. Suns bench oplays well at home and their big men will step up in this one.

Play 1 Unit on the Suns

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Re: 5-29-10

Greg Shaker | MLB Total Sat, 05/29/10 - 7:10 PM

dime bet 929 KAN / 930 BOS Under 8.5 BetUS
Analysis: MLB: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox - Royals/RedSox Under 8.5 (Greinke/Buchholz) -115 | Unit Value: 1
Game Date: 5/29/2010
Note: This is a No-Brainer Play for me and I am not going to spend much time talking about it. I love to back good throwers in bounceback opps and Greinke qualifies in both respects tonight at Fenway Park. His last outing at Coors Field was awful and many throwers going there have the same experience. He should be pumped up for this one though facing the Sox and I expect a solid performance who has allowed 3 or fewer runs in his last 7 appearances prior to his last effort. Buchholz has just been Super Duper this year, he is trending very well over his last 3 games, and he has had good success verses these Royals. His last 2 thrown games have been 2 of his best with 14 innings, 15 K's and just 2 BB's. The Wind pattern tonight is out to the fences but not blowing that hard, both Pens are performing well, yes even KC's. At another park we might very well see a number as low as 7 here but Fenway has the perception of being an OVER Venue and that has given us a very good number. The fact is, both hurlers make you hit the ball on the ground a lot and you can't put it out of the park often doing that. Clay has seen just 3 do that this year in 56 innings of work and just once in the last 3 affairs thrown. We already know about the KC thrower and what he makes batters do. My MLB Model shows UNDER 8.5 just over 57% of the time and good enough for Longterm Profit with this play.

[spook]

Re: 5-29-10

James Patrick Sports

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Chicago Blackhawks

It's been a 13 year drought for the fans of the Philadelphia Flyers but what and enjoyable ride they have had this season as the Flyers needed a shootout win on the final day of the season to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs and now the "Big Orange" is playing for the most prized trophy in all of sports. This is the 8th time Philadelphia has made it to the Stanley Cup Finals, having lost 5 straight series, since winning consecutive Stanley Cup Titles in 1974 & 1975. The Flyers have done most of their damage in the second period of action as Philadelphia has out-scored their opposition (26-7) in second period action this postseason. The Flyers have lit the red lamp (54) times in this postseason which is (1) more goal than Chicago has accumulated but they have played (1) more game than the "Boys from Chi-Town" have to this point. Philadelphia gets it done with a Defense anchored by Chris Pronger and Matt Carle and their 9th goaltender of the season, Michael Leighton, has been getting it done between the pipes. The Flyers Leighton has bested the Bruins and the Canadiens, not the best offensive teams the NHL has to offer, while the Blackhawks goalie Antii Niemi has faced the Sharks and Canucks offensive arsenals. The Flyers are strong on their home ice at the Wachovia Center with a (7-1) postseason record but the Blackhawks are a solid road team this postseason with a (7-1) record as a visitor. This is a Chicago Blackhawks team that made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals last season before dropping a hard fought series to the Detroit Red Wings. Blackhawks Captain Jonathan Toews has clicked for (9) goals and (19) assists in (16) Playoff games with line mate Patrick Kane right behind with (7) goals and (13) assists. The Blackhawks are riding the play of a red hot goaltender in Antt Niemi who has been money between the pipes with a (2.33) goals against average and an outstanding (.923) save percentage in this Postseason. Chicago is (5-3) at home in the United Center this Postseason while the Flyers are (5-4) on the road in this season's Playoffs. The first (5) games of this series will have (1) day of rest separating games and with (1) day of rest between games the Blackhawks are (33-17) including (10-2) in the Postseason while Philadelphia is (33-29) when they have just a (1) day break in the action. Chicago has a deep team that will wear down the Flyers early in this series and we look for Chicago to gets this over with quickly as we call the Chicago Blackhawks in (5) games to win the 2010 Stanley Cup Championship.

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Re: 5-29-10

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +1.22 over CHICAGO

As much as the Cardinals are a team that is usually overvalued and therefore not playable, Carlos Silva is a guy that is long overdue for a big correction in his numbers. Very average pitchers do not stay lucky for long and that’s precisely what Silva has done. It’s remarkable that this very hittable pitcher is 6-0 with an ERA of 3.52 when you consider a lifetime ERA of 4.87 and a career BAA of .303. Fact is, Silva has won four straight and over that stretch he’s struck out 10 lousy batters. That’s 2½ batters a game and that means he’s pitching to contact. Balls have been hit right at people and that cannot last. Also consider that Silva has an unsustainable 77% strand rate and an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.79 and a come-back-to earth game is forthcoming sooner rather that later. Adam Ottavino was called up to fill in for Kyle Lohse (compartment syndrome in forearm), who was placed on the DL Thursday and underwent surgery Friday. Ottavino could definitely implode because his minor league numbers are not great by any stretch. He does have very good stuff but last season he walked 82 batters and struck out 119 in 144 IP for the Memphis Redbirds of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. This year, however, he’s only walked 11 batters in 41 innings while striking out 37 so perhaps his command issues have been sorted out and that’s a chance worth taking because control has been the only thing holding Ottavino back. He has major league stuff but this one is more about taking back a tag against that career stiff, Carlos Silva. Play: St. Louis +1.22 (Risking 2 units).


CINCINNATI –1½ +1.23 over Houston

Man, it’s tempting to play over 9 runs in this one but for that to happen the Reds might have to score 10 times because a big night at the plate for the Astros is six hits and one run. Forget about Aaron Harang, as he’s about as average as they come but this isn’t the Phillies he’s facing. The Astros could make Larry King look good so there’s no reason Harang can’t get through this line-up without much damage. The same cannot be said for Brian Moehler. Moehler makes his first start of the year after working out of the pen all season. He’s been consistently bad and consistently hittable throughout his career and he’s now 38 years old with over 1500 career IP. In 18 innings this season the league is hitting .310 off him. He’s struck out six batters all season so you know 100% for sure the Reds will make contact. Wandy Rodriguez got roughed up last night, forcing the Astros to liberally use the bullpen (to little or no avail). With no offense, with a reliever pulling starting duties and a weary bullpen, the odds are hugely against the Astros in this one. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units).


Los Angeles +1.19 over COLORADO

Simply put, the Dodgers plus a tag are a must play against Aaron Cook (-4 BPV, 2-1-2-4-0 PQS). Cook is getting rocked almost every start and he’s also issuing way too many free passes. He’s already walked 25 batters in 51 frames so he needs to throw more strikes or he needs to be more fortunate. Unfortunately, his 66% strand rate is lower-than-normal and is further exposing his flaws. The Dodgers have been killing righties as of late and Cook is certainly no stranger to them, as he’s been around for a long time and has pitched 108 innings against the Dodgers in his career. Hiroki Kuroda (95 BPV, 4-1-5-3-5 PQS) has been getting it done this season with great command, a low .221 BAA on the road and a string of strong starts. Over his last three starts he’s walked three and struck out 16. The choice here is not a difficult one. We’re taking back a price on a guy who has great command and strikes out guys in a park that rewards pitchers with those attributes. This park does not reward pitchers like Cook, who can’t find the strike zone. Cook has started four games in May and has allowed 30 hits in 22.1 innings, not to mention nine walks. Cook has been whacked in San Diego, he’s been whacked at PNC Park in San Fran, he was crushed in KC and chances are he’ll get whacked again here. Play: Los Angeles +1.19 (Risking 2 units).


TORONTO –1½ +1.10 over Baltimore

There’s no reason in the world to stop playing against the O’s now. Baltimore was shutout last night 5-0 and its road record is now 6-20. This is a frustrated and very mentally drained team right now and it’s not getting better. Thursday night’s loss was demoralizing and last night the 3-4-5 hitters went 6-11 but the O’s were still shutout because the rest of the batter’s went 2-24. Now the Orioles will look to Chris Tillman to get them right-sided. Don’t think so. Tillman had his moments last season when he went 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA but he’s not ready for this leap yet. He allowed 15 jacks in 65 innings and that’s a huge problem here, as the Jays lead the majors in going yard. Also, the roof will be open in Toronto this afternoon and living here, I can tell you that balls fly out of this park in day games with the roof open. Brett Cecil is a quality pitcher that keeps the ball down and that’s significant for this one. He’s coming off a two-hit, seven inning gem in L.A. against the Angels and he’s not taking a step up in class. In fact, Cecil has faced the Orioles twice in his brief career and has dominated them to the tune of a 1.74 ERA. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).


Chicago +1.32 over TAMPA BAY

Interesting match-up sees perhaps the league’s most overachieving team facing the league’s most underachieving squad. That’s not to suggest the Rays aren’t good because they most certainly are. However, they’re not going to continue to win seven out of every ten games because they’re not THAT good. Anyway, the South Side beat them last night and there’s a great chance for them to repeat that here. John Danks (85 BPV, 1-4-3-5-3 PQS) has had a terrific year thus far, compiling a 2.37 ERA through nine starts. The Twins scored three runs off of Danks on May 12th, but aside from that, he has held opponents to two runs or fewer in every start. Danks is pitching as good as ever and it’s also worth noting that RH batters are hitting just .196 against him. Wade Davis (2 BPV, 4-2-2-3-0 PQS) hasn’t had the same success as Danks this year and he can thank his poor control for that. That inefficiency, coupled with a 1.3 hr/9, has led to an ERA nearly twice as high as Danks, and is why he gets through 5.4 IP/start versus 6.7 for Danks. After taking two of three from the pathetic Astros, the Rays have just one win in five games. They’ve scored just six runs in those four losses and they don’t get a break facing Danks. Play: Chicago +1.32 (Risking 2 units).


ALTERNATE SERIES PRICE

CHICAGO –1½ games –1.29 over Philadelphia

This has to be considered the biggest finals mismatch in years and years. Chicago winning the cup is a forgone conclusion and it just doesn’t seem possible that the Flyers can push this juggernaut Western Conference Champ to seven games. The Flyers also had about the easiest trip to the Cup than any team has had in a long, long time. They played three extremely challenged offenses in the first three rounds (New Jersey, Boston and Montreal) and each one of those teams was more challenged than the last. The Devils were lifeless, they Flyers were extremely fortunate to get by the Bruins and the Habs two biggest threats were Mike Cammalleri and a defenseman that didn’t play a single regular season game. All three of those teams made Brian Boucher and Michael Leighton look like the second coming of Bernie Parent. The Flyers will have no such luck against the Blackhawks with a second-string goaltender, or any goaltender for that matter. Chicago is loaded offensively and may just average five goals a game in this series. All they did was beat the Preds, Canucks and Sharks, the latter in a complete sweep. Comparing that trio to the trio that the Flyers knocked off is like comparing Wayne Gretzky to Tie Domi. Folks, it’s worth repeating that this series is a complete and utter mismatch and if this ticket does not cash, it’ll be an absolute shock. No way do these Flyers hang with the Blackhawks, you can take that to the bank. Play Chicago –1½ games –1.29 (Risking 5.16 units to win 4).

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Re: 5-29-10

Bob Balfe

Marlins/phillies under 7

Laker +1.5