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On Saturday the free play MLB play is on the Tampa Bay Rays. Game 977 at 4:05 eastern. Tampa is coming off a tough loss last night 9-6 in Texas. However they are 21-7 on the road and 7-3 as a road favorite in this range. Texas is still just 5-12 vs winning teams. For system purposes we want to play on road favorites off a road dog loss if the total was 10 or higher both teams scored 5 or more runs and our team left 10 or more men left on base. These road favs have cashed 8 of the last 9 times. In the pitching department Texas has T. Hunter making his first start of the year. This is a tough spot to make his first one against a solid Tampa lineup. The Rays counter with J. Shields tonight. Shields has been much better in road starts this season winning 4 of 5 with a sterling 3.34 era. He has also been good vs the Rangers cashing 3 of his 4 teams starts. Look for Tampa to take game 2 tonight. To jump on the big MLB 14-1 Non division system Game of the Month + 90% Total. Belmont selections too. For the free play take the Tampa Bay Rays. GC
Players MLB *8* Early Saturday OVER in Toronto on 5 June
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Toronto vs NY Yankees @ 1:05 PM ET - Romero vs Pettitte – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Play OVER the total in Toronto as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Players MLB Early Eve *8* Saturday OVER in Washington on 5 June
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Washington vs Cincinnati @ 7:05 PM ET - Atilano vs Leake – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Play OVER the total in Washington as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Players MLB Late Saturday *8* OVER in LA Dodgers on 5 June
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in LA Dodgers vs Atlanta @ 10:10 PM ET - Billingsley vs Hanson – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
With yesterday’s over, the Braves have now stayed under the total in just 3 of their last 11 games. Atlanta had won nine straight games before yesterday’s loss. The Braves have averaged 9.7 hits per game in their last 9 games. Keep in mind, the opening number on tonight’s total is just a 7 and the Dodgers last 8 games have only resulted in two games that totaled less than 7 runs! There is a lot of value with this low total, especially with how hot each of these clubs has been. The Braves have been on a huge run after a slow start to the season and the same is true for the Dodgers. Atlanta’s games have totaled at least 7 runs in 10 of the last 11 games. While starting pitcher Tommy Hanson of the Braves has solid numbers so far this season, note that his May (5.09 ERA) was much different than his April (2.17 ERA). Also, the Braves right-hander got roughed up in his only career start against the Dodgers.
Play OVER the total in the LA Dodgers game as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Players MLB Daytime *10* Saturday OVER in Texas on 5 June
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Texas vs Tampa Bay @ 4:10 PM ET - Hunter vs Shields – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Play OVER the total in Texas as a *10* Top Play selection.
ASA MLB PICK - 4* San Diego (Garland) +125 over Philadelphia (Moyer), Saturday at 6:00 PM CST
One MLB PICK on Saturday. Check back Sunday after 11:00 AM CST.
With Ubaldo Jimenez overshadowing every other pitching in the National League through two months, the strong start from Jon Garland has been overlooked. Garland is with his fifth team in four years but he is off to his best start since the 2005 World Series season. Through eleven starts Garland is 6-2 with a 2.15 ERA and San Diego is 8-1 in his last nine outings. In six of his last nine starts he has allowed one or fewer runs and he has not taken a loss since his second start of the season on April 11. Garland has allowed just two home runs in his last nine starts and he has excelled in night games with a 4-0 record and a 1.75 ERA.
Matching up with the Philadelphia offense is an unenviable task but the recent numbers for the Phillies are atrocious. Philadelphia is 4-11 in the last 15 games, scoring just 26 runs in the process for a 1.7 runs per game average. While the recent road trip took a serious toll the Phillies were not playing much better on the home stand before that and Citizens Bank Park has only provided a modest home field edge. Over the last ten games Philadelphia owns a .210 team batting average and against a stingy pitcher like Garland that fortune will be difficult to reverse, particularly with Jimmy Rollins still on the FL and Placido Polanco also possibly sitting out.
Veteran Jamie Moyer continues to eat innings for the Phillies but he has lost each of his last three starts. Moyer has average numbers for the season as he has been tagged for four or more runs in six of his eleven starts this season. Moyer owns slightly better numbers at home but he has received a total of one run of support in his last three starts. The Philadelphia bullpen has been solid this season but San Diego has even better numbers, including a 2.00 ERA over the last ten games.
The Padres continue to be one of the most profitable teams in baseball and a winning team on the road. Eight of the last eleven games had been won by San Diego entering this series. San Diego has a reputation as a low-scoring team that wins with pitching but the Padres averaged nearly 5.4 runs scored in that eleven-game span and on average the Padres have out-scored opponents by a half run on the road this season. San Diego has won ten of the last 13 road games and seven of the last nine Saturday games and Garland will be an underrated starter in this match-up.
Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Sat, 06/05/10 - 7:05 PM------------------------------
dime bet ml 957 CIN (-125) BetUS vs 958 WAS ------------------------------Analysis: The Cincinnati Reds -125 is the 1 Unit Buried Treasure for Saturday, June 5th!
Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Sat, 06/05/10 - 4:10 PM-----------------------------------------------------
double-dime bet ml 977 TAM (-135) BetUS vs 978 TEX -----------------------------------------Analysis: The Tampa Bay Rays -135 is our Double Star Play of the Day for Saturday, June 5th!
4-Unit Play. Take #654. Take Under 157 Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics (Saturday @ 7:00pm est)
My Dream have lost their last two ballgames after starting the year 6-0. This is perfect. At some point, they are going to take all their anger out on some team and I will step out during the game. In fact, many thought they were going to kill Chicago coming off the loss to Seattle on the road, but I specifically laid off that game and we took Connecticut yesterday instead. This is because if you have been tracking the wnba, it has become apparent that the Chicago Sky have turned the corner and they are increasing in many power rankings including my own. Also, the 6 point line was a trap line as well set by Vegas to bury the public on Atlanta. But, that is neither here or there. As per this game, Washington is a very good team. Despite not starting the season with Alana Beard, they have come a long way. This team needs to rely on their defense more as other teams begin to figure them out as Beard was such a dynamic player and with her, they could be a serious contender for the WNBA Title. Teams are starting to figure out Atlanta as they have put up 72 and 70 points as many teams are duplicating what Seattle did in their defensive scheme. I see this total as a bit high as Washington will look to likely slow down this game and make this game more of a half-court offense. Washington is a sound defensive team and I would not be surprised if this game went below the posted total. The Under is 6-0 for the Dream when playing on 0 days rest and the Under is 5-2 in the Mystics last seven home games.
Saturday's Winners ... 20 Dime: Red Sox on the run-line (-1 1/2 runs) over Orioles ... NOTE: Both Jon Lester (Boston) and Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore) MUST start this game, or this play is VOID!
10 Dime: Yankees-Blue Jays UNDER the total ... NOTE: Both Andy Pettitte (New York) and Ricky Romero (Toronto) MUST start this game or this play is VOID!
Red Sox (-1½ runs)
The Orioles are a freaking mess, as I’m sure you’re aware. They’re a major-league worst 15-40 on the season, and with last night’s 11-0 loss to Boston, they’ve now dropped nine in a row (all by more than one run) and 16 of 19. The futility cost manager Dave Trembley his job yesterday, but if you’re ranking the top 10 things that are wrong with Baltimore right now, the manager ranks 11th – if that!
While the Orioles have been floundering, Boston has gotten hot, winning 13 of its last 17 games, including six straight on the road. And 10 of the team’s last 11 wins – including all six during its winning streak – have come by multiple runs.
Jon Lester gets the ball for Boston today, and the lefty is now 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA, including 6-0 with a 1.43 ERA in his last eight starts. The Sox are 7-1 in those eight games, with the last six in a row covering the run line. In fact, in his last three outings, Lester has allowed a grand total of three runs (two earned) in 22 innings (0.82 ERA), as Boston beat the Twins (6-2), Rays (2-0) and Royals (8-1). And if you go back to early last year, 24 of Boston’s last 26 wins behind Lester have been by more than one run.
If that’s not enough to absolutely LOVE Lester tonight, this is: He’s 10-0 with a 2.22 ERA in 13 career starts against the Orioles (4-0, 2.13 in six games in Baltimore), and the Red Sox have won 12 of those 13 games, including 10 multi-run victories. And In Lester’s last four starts at Camden Yards, Boston has prevailed by scores of 6-3, 6-3, 4-0 and 11-5.
On the flip side, check out the career numbers of Baltimore right-hander Jeremy Guthrie against the Red Sox: 1-5 with a 4.72 ERA in 13 games (12 starts). Going back exactly two years, Guthrie has faced Boston seven times … and the Orioles lost all seven games, including five by more than one run. And they’re 0-4 the last four times Guthrie has matched up against Lester.
Throw in the fact that the Red Sox are on streaks against Baltimore of 63-21 overall and 68-30 at Camden Yards, and this is as big a no-brainer as it gets.
Yankees-Blue Jays UNDER
Two outstanding left-handers on the mound here, with the Yankees’ Andy Pettitte (7-1, 2.48 ERA) matching up against Toronto’s Ricky Romero (5-2, 3.14 ERA).
Start with Pettitte, who is arguably enjoying the best season of his career. He’s held eight of 10 opponents to two earned runs or fewer; he’s walked just 18 batters in 65 1/3 innings; and he’s been tremendous both on the road (2-0, 1.64 ERA in three games, all staying under the total) and in day games (6-0, 1.12 ERA).
Meanwhile, Romero has been nearly unhittable at home, going 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA in five games. Four of those five stayed under the total (average combined runs of 6.4). And like Pettitte, Romero has been brilliant in daytime action, going 2-1 with a 1.60 ERA in five games (and the under is 4-1 in those contests).
Now, obviously both these offenses are loaded, but they’re very reliant on the home run ball (in fact, Toronto leads the majors in homers with 91). Well, Pettitte and Romero have surrendered a combined eight long balls in 142 2/3 innings. Pettitte hasn’t given up a homer in 22 innings on the road, while Romero has been taken deep just once in 40 innings at the Rogers Center.
What’s more, the Blue Jays have been horrific against left-handed pitching all season (.200 average overall, .190 average at home). And while New York hits .293 against lefties overall, that average dips to .269 away from Yankee Stadium (and it managed just one run last night against Blue Jays southpaw Brett Cecil).
Finally, the under is 37-15-2 in Pettitte’s last 54 road starts and 19-7 in his last 26 as a road favorite, while Toronto is on “under” runs of 6-2 against the A.L. East, 6-2-1 against left-handed starters, 7-3-1 on Saturday, 4-1 when Romero works on Saturday and, again, 4-1 in Romero’s five home outings this season.
5 Unit Play. #658 Take Over 147 ½ Seattle at Los Angeles (Saturday 6/5 10:05 PM)
(Game of the Week) Jump on this total early as we believe this number will move between 147 ½ to around 149. LA is coming off a loss last night on the road against Phoenix. The Sparks defense has been horrible giving up 85.5ppg and Seattle offense has been outstanding averaging 83.7ppg. If the Sparks are tired tonight from their game last night the Storm can easily put up 90 tonight. LA is a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in their last 5 games and the Storm are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 games. This total flies OVER tonight and we cash our first 5-Unit Play of the season.
MLB BASEBALL PLAYS
5 Unit Play. #972 Take Chicago White Sox -160 over Cleveland (7:05 p.m., Saturday June. 5)
(Game of the Week) I hate to play this big money line tonight but the White Sox are in much need of a W against Cleveland. Revenge is on the minds of the South Siders tonight as Cleveland has own Chicago this year. Cleveland opened this series with a 10-1 butt-kicking against these Sox last night improving to 7-3 against Chicago this season. Too bad the Indians are 13-30 against the rest of the league. Tonight Chicago gets their revenge and Jake Peavy gets his 100 win of his career. Cleveland is 3-7 against division teams and the White Sox are 6-1 following a SU loss. The White Sox also play good ball on Saturdays as they are 21-7 in their last 28 Saturday games.
3-Unit Play. Take #980 Oakland (+115) over Minnesota (7 p.m., Saturday, June 5)
The A's have been the best team in the West. They came up short last night but they fought back hard. Trevor Cahill has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the A.L. over the last month or so. He has just put together quality start after quality start. Francisco Liriano has really struggled in his career in Oakland. I think he will again.
2-Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 Boston at Baltimore (7 p.m., Saturday, June 5)
Rain and weather should cause some problems in Baltimore today. It should help keep the ball in the park. Jon Lester is always great against the Orioles and they haven't been hitting lefties at all. Jeremy Guthrie is hit or miss. I am banking that he'll be "on" tonight. 10 of Guthrie's last 13 starts have stayed 'under' and he is 5-15 against the total as an underdog.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 Florida at N.Y. Mets (4 p.m., Saturday, June 5)
The Mets just aren't scoring much at home and the Marlins really never do well against left-handed pitching. Nate Robertson has been getting hit hard. But I think he'll be better in his second start against the Mets. The wind is blowing in and with few home runs in Citi Field that means less big innings and crooked numbers. The 'under' is 12-3-1 with Florida at home and 12-5-1 when the Mets face a lefty at home.
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