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Re: 6-6-10
jeff benton sunday
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2-0 yesterday..plus 30 dimes with winners on Red Sox and the under NYY game. overall, 52-57-3 MINUS 110 dimes...he has won 80 dimes worth of profite the past two days.
Sunday's Winners ... 30 Dime: ROCKIES on the run-line (-1 1/2 runs) over DBacks ... NOTE: Both Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado) and Rodrigo Lopez (Arizona) MUST start this game, or this play is VOID!
10 Dime: Celtics-Lakers UNDER the total
Rockies (-1½ runs)
Ubaldo Jimenez.
Do I really need to say anything else? This guy has been beyond ridiculous this season, and his overall numbers (10-1, 0.78 ERA) only tell part of the story. He’s given up a total of seven runs in his 11 trips to the mound covering 80 1/3 innings (including exactly zero runs and 11 hits in his last three starts covering 24 innings).
He has nearly as many strikeouts (70) as he does walks and hits surrendered (72), and he’s walked more than two batters in a game just once in his last eight starts. He’s allowed just one home run all season. And he’s been virtually unhittable on the road, going 6-1 with 0.52 ERA. In his last two roadies, Jimenez matched up against Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum and it wasn’t even a contest, as he gave up a total of five hits and five walks in 16 scoreless innings. The Rockies won both games by identical 4-0 scores.
Speaking of scores, here’s how dominant Jimenez has been: Even though the Rockies have averaged just 4.8 runs per game when Jimenez pitches (scoring four runs or fewer in five of his wins), all 10 of the right-hander’s victories this year have all been by more than one run! And that includes two easy wins over Arizona: 12-1 on April 27 and 7-3 on April 26. In those two contests, Jimenez gave up zero runs and eight hits and three walks while fanning eight in 14 innings (all four of the DBacks’ runs came against Colorado’s bullpen).
True, both of those victories against Arizona came at Coors Field. But as noted above, Jimenez is actually a better pitcher on the road than he is at home (not that the difference is very noticeable). And while Chase Field can be a house of horrors for most pitchers, it sure hasn’t been for Jimenez. Check out these numbers in his four career starts on Arizona’s home field:
2 runs, 17 hits, 14 walks, 32 strikeouts in 26 innings. I’ll do the ERA math for you: It works out to 0.69!
Colorado won three of those four games in Arizona; they’re 4-0 in Jimenez’s last four starts overall against Arizona; and for his career, Jimenez is 4-2 with a 2.17 ERA in six starts against Arizona.
Bottom line, guys: I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here when I say that Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher in baseball right now. And even though the law of averages say he’s coming back to earth at some point, I don’t think it’s going to be today, not against the DBacks (a team he’s dominated and a team that’s really struggling right now), not in Arizona (where he has absolutely thrived), and not against DBacks righty Rodrigo Lopez (who is 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA overall and 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA at home, and who was on the opposite end of that 7-3 contest against Jimenez two weeks ago in Colorado).
Lay the chalk with confidence.
Celtics-Lakers UNDER the total
First off, I issued a 10 Dime play on the UNDER in Game 1 of this series and settled for a push, even though I could’ve easily claimed a win (Kobe Bryant hit a meaningless 3-pointer in the final seconds to put the game at 191 total points, which was the closing number, but for much of the day the total was between 191½ and 192½).
Besides Kobe’s final dagger, the only thing that kept that came from coming even close to the posted total was an explosive third quarter in which the teams combined for 57 points. How much of an aberration was that 12-minute scoring outburst? In the other 11 quarters these teams have played this season, here were the combined point totals: 49, 50, 40, 40, 57, 44, 44, 28, 47, 44, 43. So only two of 12 quarters have featured more than 50 points, and only four of 12 quarters have featured more than 47 points.
If you watched Game 1, you know it was a very physical contest, and you can expect more of the same tonight. But you also can expect the refs to swallow their whistles more than they did on Thursday, when they called a whopping 54 fouls that led to 67 free throws. The teams combined to make 54 of those 67 foul shots (80.5%), so that means 28% of the points scored in Game 1 came from the charity stripe. That’s something that doesn’t figure to be repeated tonight, and if the refs do let things go, you won’t see as many players in foul trouble as in Game 1.
Meanwhile, you have to think Boston will play much tougher defense tonight. Prior to Thursday, the Celtics had had held eight of its previous nine opponents to 96 points or less (with six of those eight scoring 88 or less). In fact, Boston has allowed more than 100 points just five times in these playoffs. The previous four times it happened, the Celtics came back and played ferocious defense in the next contest, holding opponents to 86, 86, 87 and 84 points. Pretty consistent, no?
Finally, if you count Game 1 as an “under,” then these teams have stayed below the total in all three meetings this season. And going back to Game 3 of the 2008 NBA Finals, these teams have faced off six times at the Staples Center, and the UNDER cashed in five of those games, with final scores of 87-81, 97-91, 92-83, 87-86 and 102-89.
Additionally, the under is 24-6-2 in the Lakers’ last 32 games on Sunday, while Boston is on “under” runs of 6-2 overall and 6-0 against teams from the Pacific Division.
jeff benton sunday
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2-0 yesterday..plus 30 dimes with winners on Red Sox and the under NYY game. overall, 52-57-3 MINUS 110 dimes...he has won 80 dimes worth of profite the past two days.
Sunday's Winners ... 30 Dime: ROCKIES on the run-line (-1 1/2 runs) over DBacks ... NOTE: Both Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado) and Rodrigo Lopez (Arizona) MUST start this game, or this play is VOID!
10 Dime: Celtics-Lakers UNDER the total
Rockies (-1½ runs)
Ubaldo Jimenez.
Do I really need to say anything else? This guy has been beyond ridiculous this season, and his overall numbers (10-1, 0.78 ERA) only tell part of the story. He’s given up a total of seven runs in his 11 trips to the mound covering 80 1/3 innings (including exactly zero runs and 11 hits in his last three starts covering 24 innings).
He has nearly as many strikeouts (70) as he does walks and hits surrendered (72), and he’s walked more than two batters in a game just once in his last eight starts. He’s allowed just one home run all season. And he’s been virtually unhittable on the road, going 6-1 with 0.52 ERA. In his last two roadies, Jimenez matched up against Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum and it wasn’t even a contest, as he gave up a total of five hits and five walks in 16 scoreless innings. The Rockies won both games by identical 4-0 scores.
Speaking of scores, here’s how dominant Jimenez has been: Even though the Rockies have averaged just 4.8 runs per game when Jimenez pitches (scoring four runs or fewer in five of his wins), all 10 of the right-hander’s victories this year have all been by more than one run! And that includes two easy wins over Arizona: 12-1 on April 27 and 7-3 on April 26. In those two contests, Jimenez gave up zero runs and eight hits and three walks while fanning eight in 14 innings (all four of the DBacks’ runs came against Colorado’s bullpen).
True, both of those victories against Arizona came at Coors Field. But as noted above, Jimenez is actually a better pitcher on the road than he is at home (not that the difference is very noticeable). And while Chase Field can be a house of horrors for most pitchers, it sure hasn’t been for Jimenez. Check out these numbers in his four career starts on Arizona’s home field:
2 runs, 17 hits, 14 walks, 32 strikeouts in 26 innings. I’ll do the ERA math for you: It works out to 0.69!
Colorado won three of those four games in Arizona; they’re 4-0 in Jimenez’s last four starts overall against Arizona; and for his career, Jimenez is 4-2 with a 2.17 ERA in six starts against Arizona.
Bottom line, guys: I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here when I say that Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher in baseball right now. And even though the law of averages say he’s coming back to earth at some point, I don’t think it’s going to be today, not against the DBacks (a team he’s dominated and a team that’s really struggling right now), not in Arizona (where he has absolutely thrived), and not against DBacks righty Rodrigo Lopez (who is 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA overall and 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA at home, and who was on the opposite end of that 7-3 contest against Jimenez two weeks ago in Colorado).
Lay the chalk with confidence.
Celtics-Lakers UNDER the total
First off, I issued a 10 Dime play on the UNDER in Game 1 of this series and settled for a push, even though I could’ve easily claimed a win (Kobe Bryant hit a meaningless 3-pointer in the final seconds to put the game at 191 total points, which was the closing number, but for much of the day the total was between 191½ and 192½).
Besides Kobe’s final dagger, the only thing that kept that came from coming even close to the posted total was an explosive third quarter in which the teams combined for 57 points. How much of an aberration was that 12-minute scoring outburst? In the other 11 quarters these teams have played this season, here were the combined point totals: 49, 50, 40, 40, 57, 44, 44, 28, 47, 44, 43. So only two of 12 quarters have featured more than 50 points, and only four of 12 quarters have featured more than 47 points.
If you watched Game 1, you know it was a very physical contest, and you can expect more of the same tonight. But you also can expect the refs to swallow their whistles more than they did on Thursday, when they called a whopping 54 fouls that led to 67 free throws. The teams combined to make 54 of those 67 foul shots (80.5%), so that means 28% of the points scored in Game 1 came from the charity stripe. That’s something that doesn’t figure to be repeated tonight, and if the refs do let things go, you won’t see as many players in foul trouble as in Game 1.
Meanwhile, you have to think Boston will play much tougher defense tonight. Prior to Thursday, the Celtics had had held eight of its previous nine opponents to 96 points or less (with six of those eight scoring 88 or less). In fact, Boston has allowed more than 100 points just five times in these playoffs. The previous four times it happened, the Celtics came back and played ferocious defense in the next contest, holding opponents to 86, 86, 87 and 84 points. Pretty consistent, no?
Finally, if you count Game 1 as an “under,” then these teams have stayed below the total in all three meetings this season. And going back to Game 3 of the 2008 NBA Finals, these teams have faced off six times at the Staples Center, and the UNDER cashed in five of those games, with final scores of 87-81, 97-91, 92-83, 87-86 and 102-89.
Additionally, the under is 24-6-2 in the Lakers’ last 32 games on Sunday, while Boston is on “under” runs of 6-2 overall and 6-0 against teams from the Pacific Division.
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