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Every day during the MLB season... check back after 12 noon for a Free Baseball Consensus Pick!
Date: 6.11.10 at 8:10PM
Game: Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins
Current Line: Minnesota (-138)
Over/Under: 7.5
Play On: Atlanta (+128)
Inside the Board Room:
Every once in awhile a game jumps off the board, and we finally find one here tonite as the Braves play thier first Interleague game of the 2010 season. The Twins have cooled off a bit after streaking to 1st place in the AL Central, going 4-5 in thier last 9. Meanwhile, the Braves have taken control of first place in the ultra-tough NL East by going 10-4 over the last two and half weeks. Couple that with the fact that Hudson (6-1) is throwing very well this season for the Braves and we think the wrong team is favored here.
Take the Braves tonight!
dime bet 971 TEX / 972 MIL Over 9.5 BetUS
Analysis: MLB: Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers - Over 9.5 (Harden/Narveson) -105 | Unit Value: 1
Game Date: 6/11/2010
Note: A busy day of handicapping a tough card and I am just going to be very brief here with no stats and what is off the top of my head only. We have a Favorable Weather Pattern at this park tonight and this is a Hitter's Venue. Both of these teams can hit and both are ranked high in that department in their respective leagues. The Brewer Pen is just not that good and overworked a bit of late. Neither Starter is in current good form and both have HUGE WHIPS over their last few games. Both teams have play‚ed a lot of OVERS recently and this park has see a bunch of them. My MLB Totals Model has this one finishing over the posted Total just over 58.6% of the time and that is good longterm profit stuff right there. I am cutting this writeup short but I think we have a goodie here tonight in Milwaukee.
10 UNIT* MLB* Chicago White Sox , ML
15 UNIT* MLB* Colorado Rockies , Under 7
3 UNIT* MLB* Saint Louis Cardinals , -140 ML
50 UNIT* MLB* Detroit Tigers , RL
5 Unit Play. #972 Take Milwaukee +105 over Texas (8:10 p.m., Friday June. 11)
This Game of the Week is all on the Rangers pitcher tonight Rich Harden. Rich Harden is a bullpen killer because he never goes past the 6th inning. Look for the Brewers to hit Harden early and often and get to the Rangers bullpen. Milwaukee is coming off a series win against the Cubs so the Brewers have some motivations coming into this interleague battle. Texas is 1-6 in their last 7 road games as a favorite and the Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Cleveland vs Washington @ 7:05 ET: Westbrook vs Atilano – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
The Nationals are playing “energized” baseball ever since the debut of the much-heralded Stephen Strasburg. Washington has won three straight games and they’ve scored an average of 5 runs per game in their last four games. However, the Nats pitching still leaves a lot to be desired and they had allowed five runs or more in six of their eight games so far this month before yesterday’s 4-2 win over the Pirates. We look for the Nationals pitching to resume its struggles today as Luis Atilano takes the mound. He’s had as many walks as strikeouts so far this season. Also, though he went 3-1 in May, note his 5.63 ERA compiled over his six starts in that month. His ERA in night games is nearly a full run higher than his ERA in day games so far this season. Also, he’s struggled badly against left-handed hitters so far in his young MLB career. Atilano struggles to throw strikes to lefties and this has resulted in a 1.89 WHIP so far in his career against left-handed bats. The Indians have a number of left-handed bats and switch-hitters that they can load their lineup with tonight and Cleveland comes into this game riding a wave of emotion after taking each of the last two games in their series with the Red Sox.
Cleveland scored 19 runs in the final two games of their four game set with Boston and the Indians won last night’s game on a two out, two run base hit which certainly gives them an additional boost heading into this series with the Nationals. Look for the Indians to stay hot at the plate but, the trouble for Cleveland will be their own pitching situation. Jake Westbrook has given up four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts. Also, he’s had as many walks as strikeouts over that span. Westbrook is winless in his four home starts this season and he’s compiled a 5.56 ERA in those outings. Also, Cleveland is winless in each of Westbrook’s last five interleague starts. The Indians right-hander has allowed four homers in his last three home starts and the Nats have been hitting the ball very well. In fact, the Nationals have averaged 10.1 hits per game in their last 10 games. The Indians are will join the hit parade tonight as they stay hot at the plate against a Nats pitcher who is fortunate to have such a solid W-L record so far this season. Also, note that before allowing 8 hits in yesterday’s game, the Nationals had given up double digits in hits in five of their last six games. This is why the fact that the Nats have been involved in a number of unders recently is actually quite deceiving. Also, Washington is 5-2 to the over this season when they are on the road and the total is a 9 or 9.5 runs. The Indians are 7-4 to the over this season when they are at home and the total is a 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, Cleveland is 12-5 to the over this season when facing a team with a losing record. The Indians are also on a 14-6-1 run to the over in their last 21 games overall! Play OVER the total in Cleveland as a *10* Top Play selection.
Players MLB *8* Friday OVER in Boston on 11 June
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Boston vs Philadelphia @ 7:10 ET: Lackey vs Moyer – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Interleague handicapping can be “tricky” and one of the keys can be finding games where that is that “extra edge” that is only present in certain situations. This is one of them. The Phillies and Red Sox have already met in interleague action this season and the Phils faced Boston’s John Lackey. That means they’re already getting a second look at a pitcher they wouldn’t normally otherwise see. This is a big edge for the Phillies batters and they already gave Lackey quite a bit of trouble in the first match-up. In fact, Lackey was fortunate he only gave up four earned runs in his five innings of work because he did walk five plus allow six hits (including two homers) in an outing that was quite troubling. Overall, Lackey has been subpar so far this season. He’s compiled a 4.72 ERA on the season and been hammered at a .296 clip. Lackey’s numbers at home are ever worse as his home games are now in hitter-friendly Fenway Park instead of pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium. That’s a big difference and, even though the Phillies bats were shut down by Josh Johnson of the Marlins yesterday, they had a breakout day offensively and scored 10 runs in their prior game and we believe the Phils offense will enjoy success again versus Lackey as his struggles continue. The Red Sox right-hander has allowed 50 hits in his last 37.1 innings of work.
The other key about this interleague match-up, besides the Phils having already seen Lackey this season, is that Phillies starter Jamie Moyer spent much of his career in the American League. As a result, the Red Sox have a number of hitters who are quite familiar with him. Note that the familiarity has not been a good thing for Moyer as the Phillies aging southpaw is 0-7 with a 9.07 ERA in his last nine starts against the Red Sox. Also, Moyer comes into this start having compiled a 4.58 ERA away from home this season and a 4.21 ERA in his night starts. Though Boston lost yesterday, they did score 8 runs and they’ve now gone over the total in 7 of their last 10 games. Also, the Phillies bats had reached double digits in hits in three of their last four games before being handcuffed by Johnson yesterday. We realize that the Phillies last few weeks at the plate have featured some low-scoring efforts but Lackey has been very hittable this season and the Phillies were heating up at the plate again before yesterday’s disappointing effort. The Phils have a very potent lineup that will be ready to pound Lackey just like they did in the first meeting this season. Also, the Red Sox are 5-2 to the over this season when they are a home fave of -150 to -175. Look for the Sox to improve to 8-3 to the over with yet another slugfest tonight! Play OVER the total in Boston as an *8* Regular Play selection
Nelly's INTERLEAGUE 'OVER' EXPLOSION - June 11 (O Oak/SF)
Nelly's 1* Pick 'OVER 6.5' #979/980 Oakland A's (Gonzalez) at San Francisco Giants (Lincecum) 10:15 PM ET
Any game with Tim Lincecum on the mound will feature a very low total but the 'over' has hit in six of the last eight games that he has started. Lincecum still owns strong numbers for the year but he has not been close to his Cy Young form of the past two seasons. After a brilliant April, Lincecum has been quite average in May and his first start in June, allowing three or more runs in five of his last seven starts. Three times in his last four starts Lincecum has allowed at least four runs. His numbers for the season are actually worse in home games and while the Giants have a strong bullpen, the unit has suffered through a few tough games in recent weeks. Oakland is also a great hitting team against right-handed pitching, batting .326 over the last ten games. Gio Gonzalez has very good numbers for the season but he has not been sharp on the road with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. Gonzalez is also struggling in night games with a 5.08 ERA. He has allowed three or more runs in five of his last seven starts and Gonzalez occasionally battles control issues with excess walks allowed. The Giants are also one of the best hitting teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, including batting .326 at home and .310 in the last ten games. These teams played three 'under' games earlier this season in Oakland but the conditions have chanced for both squads as the offenses have been productive of late. San Francisco has scored at least three runs in eight straight games as the 'over' is on a 6-1 run in Giants games. Oakland has averaged 4.8 runs per game in the last ten contests and 4.8 runs per game in the last ten road games. The A's are historically one of the best interleague performers as well so there should be scoring opportunities. Until Lincecum gets himself back to form, playing the 'over' in his starts will be strong opportunities
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