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LAA (Saunders) over MIL (Wolf)
SF (Sanchez) -1.5 over BAL (Tillman)
Al Demarco
Monday's Plays
5 Dime play on Los Angeles and Saunders over Milwaukee and Wolf. Both scheduted pitchers must start or this play is null and void. As I release this selectieon at 11 AM Pacific, the Angels have surprisingly dropped to a -150 favorite here in Vegas and offshore.
5 Dime play on San Francisco and Sanchez - 1 1/2 Runs over Baltimore and Tillman. Again, both scheduled startdrs must go. As I release this play, the Giants are +105 on the Run Line.
I've been watching the Angels-Brewers line all morning. I originally considered a Run Line release, but I just don't have that much faith in Saunders pitching at home where he has struggled all season. With this price dropptng from -160, which is my cap, down to -150, I instead opted to play LA straight-up because I think the small added risk (7.5 dimes on a 5 dime wager) is the more prudent financial strategy rather than taking the plus money but being forced to lay 1 1/2 runs.
The Angels return home after a Freeway Series sweep of the Dodgers that capped an 11-3 road trip. They've won 15 of their last 19 overaell and now play 15 of their next 18 at home where they've won seven of nine.
LA has won six of Saunders last seven starts and he's personally 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last seven outings including a seven-hit, one-run, complete game effort at Oakland in his last start.
Milwaukee has dropped 10 of its last 14 on the road and the Brewers continue to flounder offensively. They managed just three hits in Sunday's 7-2 home loss to Texas and are batting .194 collectively in their last eight games and .239 in their last 39, a stredch in which they've lost 21 times.
Wolf has been roughed up in his last two starts against the Cubs and Cards allowing 15 hits and 13 earned runs in 11.1 innings. He's 2-4 in six road starts this season with a 5.66 ERA.
The Orioles hit the road after a 2-7 homestand in which they scored a total of 25 runs and hit just two homers. They're 1-5 in Interleague play after getting swept this weekend by the Mets. They've dropped eight in a row on the road and 15 of their last 17 overall.
The Giants, fresh off a sweep of the A's at home, have won 12 of 17, incuding eight of 10 in San Fran.
Sanchez sports a 2.31 ERA in six home starts this season.
The Orioles have lost all three of Tillman's starts so far as he's allowed 18 hits, walked seven, and yielded nine runs (seven earned) in 13 innings worked.
from OffshoreInsiders.com Executive Handicapper Matt Rivers who says take Brewers plus the coin.
Milwaukee is one of the most disappointing teams in the entire major leagues and there really can't be much of a debate there. This team is oozing with talent and potential yet continues to lose game after game after game. Yesterday they were smacked around at home as their ace Yovanni Gallardo underachieved as he has a penchant for doing every now and then. To be 26-37 overall is a crime with guys like Braun, Fielder, Weeks and Hart.
Anaheim meanwhile just looked really good in the weekend sweep of the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine and are a solid club that has really come around. Mike Scioscia has his boys clearly moving in the right direction ever since the freak Kendry Morales injury and right now Matsui, Abreu, Kendrick, Rivera and the fellas are feeling really good.
With all of the above said though I cannot help but believe that the Brewers are going to go on a run because of their high upside and to get a quality price back like this with a professional lefty in Randy Wolf against a similar southpaw in Joe Saunders is enough to give it a go. I would call this pitching matchup pretty much a wash as both are very good at times and also mediocre at times. Neither scares many but both are capable of a quality start at anytime.
The Halos are solid and do win this game more than they don't but enough is enough with the Brewers as they are just too good to continue to flail away the way they have. I would not be shocked to see Milwaukee get to Saunders and win this thing going away so to get a pretty penny back makes this a go on the road dog Brew Crew.
Matchup: Toronto at San Diego
Time: 10:05 PM EDT (Mon)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) MARCUM, S vs. (R) GARLAND, J
Play: San Diego (ML -116)
This is a very rough scheduling spot for Toronto. The Jays are embarking on their third straight road series, and they're off what for them is a very rare weekend in high altitude. The Jays are also not playing well as they head to San Diego. This ballpark does not set up well for the Blue Jays, as they're a power hitting team now up against a park that sets up better for teams that play small ball. On the pitching side, Toronto also could have some real issues with Jon Garland, who has surrendered just three homers in his last 70 innings of work. The Padres can no longer be considered a fluke. The pitching is outstanding, they get their hits when it matters most, and they are a team playing as though they believe they're going to win, and that's huge. Also, after missing all of last season, it could very well be that Shaun Marcum is experiencing a bit of a dead arm period, as the Jays hurler has slumped a bit of late and his K rate has dropped precipitously. I see this as a sold spot for the Padres and the price is right for a play on that side.
On Monday the MLB free play is on the Toronto Blue Jays. Game 903 at 10:05 eastern. The Padres fit a negative system tonight that plays against home teams off a home favored loss if the total was 8 or less vs an opponent off a road dog loss of 2+ loss at +140 or higher. These home teams have lost 7 of 8 times. Toronto has won 3 of 4 off 3+ losses and is a solid 7-4 as a road dog in this range this year. When the total is 7 or less they have won 6 of 8 times on the road. The Pitching stats between Garland and Marcum are very similar. Look for Toronto to steal game one on the road tonight. On Monday I have anoher famed MLB Diamond cuter system which has never lost and wins by 3 runs per game.. Radio show with free pick at 8:05 eastern at 88.9 wsiaa.fm. Free play on the Toronto Blue Jays. BOL GC
Milwaukee Brewers (26-37) at Los Angeles Angels (36-30)
(L) Randy Wolf (4-6) vs. (L) Joe Saunders (5-6)
The Brewers have struggle away from home, dropping 10 of their last 14 road games. Go with the hot Angeles at home. Los Angeles is 10-2 in their last 12 games, 4-1 in its last 5 at Angel Stadium.
Milwaukee's lefthander Randy Wolf (4-6, 5.31) is 0-2 with a 8.27 ERA in his last three starts and went 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA in two career starts against the Angels, both at Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles' lefthander Joe Saunders (5-6, 4.35 ERA) is 2-0 with a 4.19 ERA in his last three starts, 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last seven starts. He will face the Brewers for the first time. The Southpaw has not done well at home, just 1-5 with a 6.34 ERA this season at Angel Stadium.
double-dime bet 903 TOR / 904 SDP Over 6.5 BetUS
Analysis:
MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres - Over 6.5 (Marcum/Garland) -120 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 6/14/2010
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