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Re: 6-17-10
DAVID MALINSKY
4* ARIZONA/BOSTON UNDER
Fenway Park is an entirely different place when the wind is blowing in, which is the case tonight, and with our timing for backing Danny Haren and John Lackey having us ahead of the curve we can take advantage of the excellent value that this one brings.
We cashed an easy ticket behind Haren in his last outing, a sharp eight IP against St. Louis in which he had nine K’s with a W, and the truth is that his 4.61 allowance, off of seasons of 3.07, 3.33 and 3.14, does not reflect his stuff at all. It has all been about the HR ball, with 17 allowed already, but even that category deserves an *. He allowed eight over a two-game stretch against Toronto and Colorado, but six of those eight came in the late innings of games that were one-sided. Since those two ugly showings it has been a 2-0/2.08 run over three starts, with 21 K’s vs. two W’s allowed, and the only HR came when he was working with a comfortable 6-0 lead against St. Louis. His momentum can carry forward here, and there is not a single fatigue rating from the bullpen behind him.
We have been watching John Lackey closely in recent weeks, seeing some signs that he was going to return to form after being out of rhythm in his first two months in a Red Sox uniform, and we saw the “buy signal” against Philadelphia in his lat outing. He flew through seven innings in an economical 86 pitches, not walking a batter, and posting an excellent ratio of 12 ground ball outs vs. only five in the air. Even with that outing his ERA is a full run higher than his average of the past five seasons, and the markets are attaching the kind of weight to that bottom line that brings us our value. There are also no fatigue issues to worry about from the Boston bullpen – while Jonathan Papelbon has worked back-to-back games, he only threw 17 pitches and will be available.
DAVID MALINSKY
4* ARIZONA/BOSTON UNDER
Fenway Park is an entirely different place when the wind is blowing in, which is the case tonight, and with our timing for backing Danny Haren and John Lackey having us ahead of the curve we can take advantage of the excellent value that this one brings.
We cashed an easy ticket behind Haren in his last outing, a sharp eight IP against St. Louis in which he had nine K’s with a W, and the truth is that his 4.61 allowance, off of seasons of 3.07, 3.33 and 3.14, does not reflect his stuff at all. It has all been about the HR ball, with 17 allowed already, but even that category deserves an *. He allowed eight over a two-game stretch against Toronto and Colorado, but six of those eight came in the late innings of games that were one-sided. Since those two ugly showings it has been a 2-0/2.08 run over three starts, with 21 K’s vs. two W’s allowed, and the only HR came when he was working with a comfortable 6-0 lead against St. Louis. His momentum can carry forward here, and there is not a single fatigue rating from the bullpen behind him.
We have been watching John Lackey closely in recent weeks, seeing some signs that he was going to return to form after being out of rhythm in his first two months in a Red Sox uniform, and we saw the “buy signal” against Philadelphia in his lat outing. He flew through seven innings in an economical 86 pitches, not walking a batter, and posting an excellent ratio of 12 ground ball outs vs. only five in the air. Even with that outing his ERA is a full run higher than his average of the past five seasons, and the markets are attaching the kind of weight to that bottom line that brings us our value. There are also no fatigue issues to worry about from the Boston bullpen – while Jonathan Papelbon has worked back-to-back games, he only threw 17 pitches and will be available.
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