6-20-10

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Re: 6-20-10

smart analysis sports


Saturday went (1-1) (+0.5 units)

6-1 over the past 5 days...

For Sunday..

StLouis/ Oakland OVER 9 (+100) (2 units)

Cincinnati (-127) (2.5 units)

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Re: 6-20-10

Dwayne Bryant | MLB Money Line Sun, 06/20/10 - 1:10 PM

dime bet 907 TAM (+112) Sportbet vs 908 FLA
Analysis:
Price & Johnson MUST START

Josh Johnson has been absolutely dominant of late, but I kept getting pulled back to the Rays in this one. And when it comes right down to it, if I don't "feel it," then I can't pull the trigger. Back to Johnson. Johnson has been nearly flawless in his last seven starts, going 4-1 with a 0.55 ERA. But a few Rays have had success against Johnson, including Evan Longoria (3-for-7, 1 double), B.J. Upton (2-for-6 with a double and a triple), Carlos Pena (.500 OBP), and Carl Crawford (a double and a .333 OBP).

David Price has been almost as "lights out" as Johnson. And when it comes to daytime starts this season, Price (5-0, 2.16 ERA & 1.11 WHIP in 5 starts) has been even better than Johnson (3-1, team is 3-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). Only ONE key Florida hitter has had any success against Price and that was Hanley Ramirez, who is 1-for-3 with a single. And Ramirez is not expected to play due to a hamstring injury. Cantu, Coghlan, Paulino, Ross, and Uggla are a combined 0-for-11 against Price.

Even with two great hurlers on the bump, we should still see an inning or two from the bullpens. MAJOR edge to the Rays here (even though they stumbled last night). The Rays bullpen owns a 2.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and .212 BAA on the road. Florida's pen sports a 5.23 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and .266 BAA at home. Over their last 5 games, that Marlins pen has produced a 7.16 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, and .295 BAA. Yikes!

I expect a tight, low-scoring game with the bullpens deciding it late. That should lead to a win for the Rays. Take Tampa Bay/Price over Florida/Johnson.

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Re: 6-20-10

GoodFella | MLB Money Line Sun, 06/20/10 - 1:35 PM

double-dime bet 916 PIT (+110) Bodog vs 915 CLE
Analysis: –
Listed Pitchers (Lincoln vs Masterson)

MLB (2*) Double Star Play

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Re: 6-20-10

SB Professor MLB 6/20

Here are the early Sunday picks for MLB with the current Money Lines:

Washington Nationals +107

Pittsburgh Pirates +108

Chicago Cubs -132

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Re: 6-20-10

Football Jesus Free Text picks
Sunday: Houston Astros +1.5 run line

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Re: 6-20-10

KELSO

25 units White Sox -105
10 units Rangers -155
3 units LA Angels +120

5 units Mets +160
5 units Mets/Yankees UNDER 8.5
5 units parlay both above

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Re: 6-20-10

exec 250-st.louis

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Re: 6-20-10

HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-June 20th

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************

[904] Detroit |5*|-150|B+0|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST

[917] LA Dodgers |5*|+145|B+0|ESPN|8:05 pm EST

[926] San Diego |5*|-160|B+0|Network N/A|4:05 pm EST

[927] Cincinnati |5*|-125|B+0|Network N/A|4:10 pm EST

[930] New York |5*|-160|B+0|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST

[904] Ari/Det |5*|UNDER|9.5 Runs|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST

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Re: 6-20-10

Handicapper: Craig Trapp
LAA Angels vs. Chicago Cubs (MLB) - 2:20 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 122 LAA Angels Play Title:
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
923 LAA +122: This should be even money at worse and its such a bonus to get this hot LAA as this big of underdog. LAA have won 5 in a row on the road and 16 of last 21 games overall. Today they turn to Saunders who has been great in interleague play in his career. 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last three road starts, even hotter 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA in nine career interleague outings. He takes on one of the most up and down pitchers ever Zambrano. Big Z has not had a win since returning to the lineup and even worse has walked 11 in 15 innings. If the pitching matchup was not enough then think about the hottest hitting team in the league the last month verse one of the worst. Enough said this one is another easy win as LAA finish off the sweep.

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Re: 6-20-10

Handicapper: Rob Vinciletti
Oakland Athletics vs. St Louis Cardinals (MLB) - 2:15 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Total: 9/-108 Under Play Title: 14-1 MLB TOTALS SYSTEM OF THE MONTH $$$
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
On Sunday the 14-1 Totals system play is on the Under in the Oakland at St. Louis game. Rotation numbers 921/922 at 2:15 eastern. What we want to do is play the under for all home teams with a total of 8 or less off a home favored loss by 1 run, with 0 or 1 errors vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog win, if both teams scored 4 or less runs. Teams in these game only combine to score 4.4 rpg. The Cardinals have gone under 7 of 8 times when the total is 9 to 9.5 and have an excellent home bullpen era at 2.59. Oakland has gone under 16 of 23 times in day games and only average 3.3 rpg in Inter league games. In the pitching matchup. J.Suppan looks to build on an encouraging first start back with St. Louis. Oakland counters with righty T.Cahill. Cahill has gone under in 7 of 10 stats this season. Look for this one to go under.

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Re: 6-20-10

Handicapper: Steve Merril
Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) - 1:35 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Total: 8/-102 Over Play Title:
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Minnesota and Philadelphia played a wild one on Saturday putting up 23 total runs. The two teams wrap up their series on Sunday afternoon. Roy Halladay gets the start for the Phillies; he's 8-5 with a 2.36 ERA. The righty has lost two straight outings giving up seven runs and 14 hits in 14 innings of work. Halladay's two worst outings were against the Red Sox and Yankees. Last year, he faced the Twins twice going 1-1 in those outings. He gave up five runs and 17 hits in 16 innings of work. Jim Thome (12-28), Delmon Young (7-18), Michael Cuddyer (3-10), Nick Punto (3-10), Brendan Harris (3-5), and Matt Tolbert (2-4) all hit Halladay well. Minnesota is hitting nearly .300 in interleague play averaging more than five runs per game. The Twins have scored 18 runs in two games so far against Philadelphia pitching. The Phillies offense is red-hot scoring 32 runs over their last four games. Carl Pavano gets the start for the Twins; he's 7-6 with a 3.92 ERA. Pavano is 2-3 with a 4.09 ERA on the road this season. Placido Polanco (12-43), Brian Schneider (5-18), Chase Utley (4-8), Raul Ibanez (3-7), and Juan Castro (3-5) all have good numbers against Pavano. The Phillies have gone Over in 14 of their 22 day games where they hit almost .270 as a team. The Twins and Phillies used quite a bit of their bullpens in yesterday’s game which leaves them real thin here. This game has all the makings of a slugfest which means we expect a high-scoring game this afternoon.

Play OVER the total.

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Re: 6-20-10

Hollywood Sports' 25* MLB SABERMETRICS OVER/UNDER GAME OF THE MONTH (*76%* 28-9 MLB run!) -- Sunday

Handicapper: Hollywood Sports
League: MLB
Event: Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros on 06/20/2010 at 11:05AM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: At 2:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros listing both pitchers C.J. Wilson and Felipe Paulino. We look for two strong efforts from these starting pitchers. Wilson has made a strong transition from the Rangers bullpen to starting rotation this season with his 5-3 record and 3.48 ERA. This day game on the road is a situation where Wilson does his best pitching. On the road this season, Wilson has a 3.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .196 opponent's batting average -- as opposed to his 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .225 opponent's batting average at home. And during day games this season, Wilson has a 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .208 opponent's batting average versus his 3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .219 opponent's batting average during night games. Wilson's deeper sabermetric statistics also paint a very good picture for this left-hander. His extremely low .082 ISO (ISOlated power, slugging pct minus BA) number indicates that he is not giving up many extra-base hits. We also take note that only .610 of the line-drives Wilson is allowing are falling for base hits -- as opposed to the current .728 LD BABIP (Line Drive Batting Average for Balls put Into Play) American League average. Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the hitter-versus-pitcher battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The fact that Wilson has a significantly lower LD BABIP then the AL average is strong evidence that he is legitimate. Wilson scattered two runs on just two hits in his last start in Florida against the Marlins -- and the Rangers have played 7 of the last 8 games Under the Total when Wilson was pitching after a Quality Start in his last outing. The Astros (26-43) are hitting only .240 against left-handers and they have played 6 straight Unders against lefties. Additionally, the Rangers (40-28) have played Under the Total in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.

The Astros' Paulino is 1-8 with a 4.50 ERA this season. Paulino's sabermetrics look good. His .110 ISO indicates he is not giving up many extra-base hits. Paulino has a groundball BABIP of .320 which is much higher than the .275 GB BABIP that the Astros have overall this season. This is good evidence that Paulino has actually been very unlucky regarding allowing those seeing-eye groundball base hits. His GB BABIP should regress down towards the Houston's mean over time. Paulino pitches much better at home: 3.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and a .213 opponent's batting average versus a 5.79 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .303 opponent's batting average on the road. Further, Paulino thrives in day games with his 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .204 opponent's batting average as compared to his 4.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .267 opponent's batting average at night this season. This is consistent with Paulino's '09 spit stats during the day given his strong 2.64 ERA and 1.24 WHIP during the day. And with Paulino on the hill with Houston as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range, 8 of those last 10 games have gone Under. Together, these team trends produce our specific 25-4 combined winning angle for this game. 25* MLB Sabermetrics Over/Under Game of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros listing both pitchers C.J. Wilson and Felipe Paulino. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

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Re: 6-20-10

Roz's 1st Half Total Game of the Year - Sunday
Handicapper: Roz Juarbe
League: MLB
Event: Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners on 06/20/2010 at 1:10PM
Condition: Over
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: My eyes got really big when I saw this matchup on Sunday. A Cincinnati Reds team that is in the top 5 in just about every hitting category (Hits, Runs, Home Runs, RBIs) has just got held to one run on Friday and one run on Saturday to the Seattle Mariners. Ok, I'll give you Friday's game, that was against Cliff Lee who is having a great season. Saturday, well that one is a stretch. But Sunday, there is no way the Reds are held below six runs here. Likewise, I don't see the M's getting held down either.... therefore, I'm loving the OVER in this matchup. Ryan Rowland-Smith for the M's hasn't won a gamne yet in 11 starts (0-6) and has a lofty 6.63 ERA and sky high 1.78 WHIP. He's allowed as many walks as KO's (23) and opponents are hitting .332 against him this season. Now he faces one of the best hitting teams in baseball... Yikes!!! Aaron Harang isn't exactly been stellar either. He's 5-6 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He's coming off a terrible outing against the Dodgers where he allowed five earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Sit back, enjoy the show, this one is going OVER on Sunday.

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Re: 6-20-10

Hot Shots from NC line
3 Under Red Sox - Dodgers

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Re: 6-20-10

jeff benton sunday

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0-1 yesterday MINUS 30 dimes OR Loss of $405 on the Giants..for one day he was on the plus side for profit, thats gone...overall, 62-66-3 for MINUS 20 dimes.

Sunday's Winners ... 20 DIME selection on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES on the run line (-1½ runs) agaanst the Twins on Sunday. As always, run-line plays require listing both pitchers, so Roy Halladay (Philadelphia) and Carl Pavano Minnesota have to start this game or this play is VOID!


10 DIME selection on the the Rays-Marlins UNDER the total. The number for this one is a solid 7½ both offshore and in Vegas. As always, over/under plays requeire listing both pitchers. So Josh Johnson (Florida) and David Price (Tampa Bay) have to take the mound on Sunday or this play is VOID!



Phillies (-1½ runs)

Time for the real Roy Halladay to come back to the mound. Halladay got his butt whipped at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, giving up six runs on eight hits – including three cheap home runs – an 8-3 loss. He’s now dropped back-to-back games (including a 2-0 home loss to Florida) and Philadelphia is just 2-5 in his last seven starts (even though Halladay gave up two runs or fewer in five of those seven games).

The reason the wins have been few and far between for Halladay lately? Check out the run “support” he’s gotten in his last seven outings: 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 0 and 3. However, after a LONG offansive drought, the Phillies’ bats have finally woken up, as they scored 13 runs in their last two games at the Yankees on Wednesday and Thursday, then came home and pounded out a total of 19 runs against the Twins the last two days. Today, the Phils get to take their hacks against Carl Pavano, who’s lost his last three road starts by scores of 4-1, 11-2 and 3-0, giving up 13 runs (12 earned) in 19 innings (5.68 ERA).

Back to Halladay. He’s had just three subpar starts all season, giving up five runs in seven innings at San Francisco, six runs in 5 2/3 innings at Boston and then Tuesday’s outing against the Yankees. Well, he not only bounced back from his first two poor performances, he pitched complete-game gems (a three-hitter in a 10-0 home win over the Mets and the complete-game at Florida). If he stays true to form, the Twins are in deep trouble – especially when you consider what Halladay did against Minnesota when he was with the Blue Jays: 13 games, 11 starts, 8-1 record, 2.90 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .226 batting-average-against.

Talk about dominant!

Meanwhile, Pavano has faced the Phillies 20 times in his career, going 5-7 with a 4.86 ERA, and the Phillies are batting .283 against the veteran right-hander. Even better, he’s pitched twice at Citizens Bank Park and given up 11 runs and 19 hits (three home runs) in 11 innings, as Philadelphia hit nearly .400 in those two games.

Finally, while the Phillies haven’t won much lately, when they have, it’s been convinecing, as their last six victories have been by multiple runs. In fact, 18 of their last 23 wins have covered the run line.


Rays-Marlins UNDER

Can Vegas set this total low enough? I doubt it, not with these two pitchers on the mound.

Florida’s Josh Johnson is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and he has been unbelievable over his last seven starts, allowing a grand total of four runs (three earned) in 49 innings (0.74 ERA), giving up just 32 hits and 10 walks while striking out 42 in those 49 innings. Johnson has been ridoculous at home, too, going 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA in nine starts. In 61 home innings, Johnson has allowed 58 combined hits and walks – and nary a home run! – with 74 strikeouts.

Now check out the final scores of Johnson’s last four starts: 1-0, 3-2, 2-0 and 3-2.

Meanwhile, David Price’s numbers aren’t quite as sick as Johnson’s, but about 98 percent of the pitchers in the big leagues would trade their stats for those of the Tampa lefty. Price is 10-2 with a 2.31 ERA, including 6-1 with a 2.66 ERA in seven road games. Only once this year has Price given up more than three earned runs; he’s yielded two earned or fewer nine times; and he’s gone at least six innings in 10 of his 13 outings. Over his last three starts, Price is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA, and two of those wins came on the road.

Price’s only previous start against the Marlins came last year in Tampa Bay, and he surrendered just one run on two hits and five walks in 6 1/3 innings, rolling to a 5-2 victory. As for Johnson, he’s 1-0 with a 3.42 ERA in four career starts against the Rays, but never in those four outings was the big right-hander going as good as he is right now.

Throw in the fact that this is a day game after a night game in late June under the searing heat and humidity of South Beach – read: the hitters are going to be sapped – and I’ll be shocked if there are more than three runs scored in this game. Play it low