6-20-10

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Re: 6-20-10

Greg Shaker | MLB Money Line Sun, 06/20/10 - 1:10 PM

triple-dime bet 908 FLA (-120) BetUS vs 907 TAM
Analysis: MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Florida Marlins - Marlins (Price/Johnson)(Best Bet) -120 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 6/20/2010
Note: Let me first apologize for the short writeup as My Kids took me out on the town last night and we did it up right. That means pecking on this keyboard is not much fun. This game has been handicapped though and I do like it very much. My MLB Model has Florida winning just below the 60% Mark and there is reason to believe that we should win even at a higher rate than that. While both starters are very good, Price is slipping of late with effectiveness with more pitches per inning, and worse than has been K/BB Ratios. That is not happening with the Big Guy for the Marlins and as he continues to be very dominent on the mound. Florida will be in their Best Hitting Posture facing the lefty and the fact is, Price has not been able to go very many innings of late while Josh has. That gives us an advantage today I think especially sine the Weak Link for the home team is their Bullpen. The Rays however do have an Overworked Pen as they have been forced into a lot of wor due a Starting Staff that has an ERA Over 7 Runs the last 11 games. That is beginning to catch up with TB in a Big way and despite winning a close high scoring contest yesterday, they have won just twice in their last 6 games and just 3 of their last 9. The Rays Early Magic is not so magic now and facing the Best Thrower the Marlins have, and perhaps the best in the NL, on the road, is not a formula for success. This line has drifted down nicely for us and I would not be concerned about that being a negative as we have seen lot's of Rays money this year just about in every game played.

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Re: 6-20-10

aseball Bambino
6-1 Run (86%)
Tue 1-0
Wed 1-0
Thu 0-1
Fri 2-0
Sat 2-0

Sunday Play: Cinncinati - Seattle OVER 8.5 Runs

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Re: 6-20-10

BIG AL's 5* INTERLEAGUE BASEBALL GAME OF THE YEAR -- Sunday

At 1:10 pm, our Interleague Game of the Year is on the Florida Marlins over the Tampa Bay Rays.

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Re: 6-20-10

Free Silver Key Pick for Sunday ML Baseball

Baltimore Arrieta -R +1.5 Runs, -150 over SAN DIEGO (4:05 et)

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Re: 6-20-10

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles +1.48 over BOSTON

Hiroki Kuroda has been very sharp recently and is coming off back-to-back starts in which he did not allow a single run. He threw a seven-inning gem at home against the Cardinals and then threw a five-inning beauty in Cincinnati. In that last game in Cinci, Kuroda started the game and then there was a 2½-hour rain delay after the third inning, yet he still came back and was just as sharp. In his last two starts he’s struck out 14 while walking just three. Clay Buchholz has a 2.67 ERA and nine wins despite displaying pedestrian skills. His walk/SO ratio (34/58) is not strong and his strand rate is an unsustainable 80%. The mediocre 38%/23% quality start/average start here further illustrates that Buchholz has not been ace-caliber despite the appealing surface stats, which may be ripe for a correction. The Red Sox are hot but the Dodgers are still a quality team that can do a lot of damage against pitchers that aren’t sharp, especially right-handers. Play: Los Angeles +1.47 (Risking 2 units).


Minnesota +2.10 over PHILADLEPHIA

Despite Roy Halliday going, the Twins are too high a price here to pass up on. Halliday needs no introduction, as he’s been as good as any pitcher in the league over the past decade. However, he could be feeling fatigue in his arm due to a ton of innings, the heat and a ton of pitches that he throws each game. In three June starts, Halliday is 1-2 and has a BAA of .286. Halliday has thrown 441 pitches over his last four games and he also had a game recently in which he threw 132 pitches. His two games this season against AL clubs, he allowed six earned runs in both of them. San Fran, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Colorado all had 10 hits against him recently and frankly, he’s been way more hittable this year than in previous years and could get lit up again today by a strong offense that has seen him plenty of times. Carl Pavano is getting stronger with each passing month. His BAA in June is just .235. He also has pinpoint control as evidenced by 14 walks all year in 87.1 frames. And lastly, over the past 12 games, the Twins are batting a combined .292 while the Phillies are hitting 40 points lower at .252. Win or lose, the huge value is on the visitor. Play: Minnesota +2.10 (Risking 2 units).


Kansas City +1.69 over ATLANTA

Kyle Davis is not going to dazzle anyone and he could easily get lit up here. His skills have been spiraling out of control and he might even lose his spot in the rotation. Thing is, the Royals are 7-6 when he starts and he seems to always get a lot of run support. Also note the Braves are off on Monday and this is a day game after a night game and in this heat it will give Booby Cox an opportunity to rest a couple of players so that they’ll get two days off instead of one. Of bigger note, however, is that Kenshin Kawakami is winless (0-9) and that plays on one’s mind. The Braves are just 3-10 when he starts and the Royals are very capable of matching the Braves run for run. Kawakami’s numbers are below average right across the board. He’s very likely to give up four, five or six runs. Psychologically, he must feel like that first win is near impossible and if the Royals get to him early he instantly becomes more fragile than he already is. The tag here on Kawakami is simply ridiculous, as the Royals most certainly have a good chance to win. Play: Kansas City +1.69 (Risking 2 units).


Oakland +1.04 over ST. LOUIS

This isn’t Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter that the A’s will face. What we have here is the most overrated team in the majors with Jeff Suppan going laying a price, albeit a small one, against a quality pitcher in Trevor Cahill. The Brewers released Suppan and that’s equivalent to being the 11th man on the New Jersey Nets bench. In true Cardinal tradition, they picked up another pitcher off the scrap heap and are looking to work another miracle. It’s unlikely to happen with Suppan. Suppan last compiled an ERA under 4.50 in 2003. His BAA this season before being released was .372 and he also had a WHIP of 1.94. There is nothing to like about the Cardinals other than Albert Pujols and there’s less to like about Suppan. The Cardinals are 38-30 and they’ve had the easiest schedule in the league by far. Its recent string of opponents has been Seattle, Arizona, a sinking Reds squad, Milwaukee, the Cubbies, San Diego, Houston and Pittsburgh. They are never to be trusted when anyone not named Wainwright or Carpenter is going and you can triple that with Suppan going. We could give you all kinds of stats on Cahill but does it really matter? Any tag against Suppan and the Cards is one to seriously consider. Play: Oakland +1.04 (Risking 2 units).


Baltimore +1.50 over SAN DIEGO

The O’s are a complete dumpster fire but they’re still going to win about 40% of its remaining games and those wins have to come from somewhere. What I do know is the Jon Garland should never be –1.60 favorite over anyone because Garland can get lit up anytime by anyone. Current O’s hitters are batting .330 against Garland in 125 career AB’s with Nick Markakis batting .429 and Miguel Tejada batting .406. The bottom line is that Garland is very hittable and has been for years. The gap between Garland’s 3.07 ERA and 4.41 xERA is so large it is unsustainable. Jake Arrieta is not Stephen Strasburgh but in two starts covering 13 frames he’s only allowed seven hits. Those seven hits came against the Yanks and Giants and he’s certainly not taking a step up in class here. The O’s do not have much to look forward to but Arrieta has breathed some life into them when he takes the mound and in fact, they won both his starts thus far and at this price against Garland they absolutely have a chance to complete the trifecta. Play: Baltimore +1.50 (Risking 2 units).

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Re: 6-20-10

WIN OR LOSE SPORTS BETTING
PLAY OF THE DAY

Chicago WS

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Re: 6-20-10

Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee lost on Saturday with the Padres -$180/Orioles.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" likes the Marlins -$130/Rays.

"Mr Chalk" is 43-33 -$700 for the 2010 MLB season.

Good luck
222

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Re: 6-20-10

* NYY -1.50

HAD The Mariners yesterday!!!!!

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Re: 6-20-10

Insider Angles

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Aaron Harang has had a disappointing season for the Cincinnati Reds, but he had looked better lately before getting touched up in his last start, and he should appreciate facing the Seattle Mariners lineup here.

Harang is just 5-6 with a 5.44 ERA for the year, but he had allowed two runs or less in three straight starts before the Dodgers reached him for five runs in 4.1 innings on Tuesday. Still, we expect a nice bounce-back effort here vs. a Mariners team that is dead last in the American League in batting average (.240) and second to last in runs scored ahead of only the pathetic Baltimore Orioles attack.

Harang is a perfect four for four in Quality Starts in his career vs. Seattle, and he is facing a Mariners lineup that is batting a microscopic .205 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, averaging a disgusting 2.20 runs per game overall in those contests.

Seattle counters with the winless Ryan Rowland-Smith, who is 0-6 personally with the Mariners as a team going just 2-9 in his 11 starts. Then again, that is to be expected when you post a 6.63 ERA and 1.78 WHIP overall, as Rowland-Smith has. Worst of all, his already ugly WHIP actually rises to 1.91 over the last three starts, and it is very difficult to pitch in the Major Leagues when you are almost always pitching with two men on base.

We suggest you get on the Reds listing these pitchers as soon as possible, as this line seems to already be on the rise. However, you can still get Cincinnati at -125 at BetJamaica.

MLB Sunday Pick: Reds -125

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Re: 6-20-10

hey guys i just posted a big play for me today
you should check it out i'am on fire!!!
viewforum.php?f=6
here are the links!!!

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Re: 6-20-10

TheSportsCapper Baseball

Play Atlanta (-175) over Kansas City (TOP MLB PLAY)

Play Colorado (-150) over Milwaukee (BONUS MLB PLAY)

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Re: 6-20-10

2-Minute Warning
Sunday's Play Vegas Wise Guys

Phillies - 1 1/2 Runs

Joel Tyson
Sunday's Selection .... For Sunday, 30 Dime Interleague Under of the Year goes out on Tampa Bay-Florida to hold UNDER the totcl.

Michael Cannon
Sunday's Plays...
25 Dime Winner on the OAKLAND A's over the St. Louis Cardinals with Trevor Cahill and Jeff Suppan as the listed pitchers.


if anybody has A redd or C Jordan, much appreciated. i will chip in for the whowillcover.com 1 day pass if anyone interested, it has all these guys plus al demarco's pick. thanks

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Re: 6-20-10

Michael Cannon
Sunday's Plays...
25 Dime Winner on the OAKLAND A's over the St. Louis Cardinals with Trevor Cahill and Jeff Suppan as the listed pitchers.

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Re: 6-20-10

A REDD 75 dimes


under padres

pd for by me

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Re: 6-20-10

ATS LOCK CLUB

4 units UNDER 7.5 TB Rays
4 units Cleveland Indians
4 units Cincinnati Reds