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Houston is 12-24 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. San Francisco has won 6 of their last 9 games overall. Houston has lost 8 of their last 9 games overall. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.55 ERA overall this year. Houston is scoring only 3.4 runs per game overall, 3.5 runs per game at home and 3.7 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Barry Zito is 7-3 with a 3.13 ERA overall this year. San Francisco is 6-0 overall vs Houston this year. Zito is 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA overall vs Houston since 1997. Brett Myers is 1-4 with a 6.63 ERA overall vs San Francisco since 1997. We'll play San Francisco for 3 units tonight!
4* Minnesota -140
Minnesota is 40-29 overall this year while Milwaukee comes in at 29-40 on the season. Minnesota is 33-15 the past 3 years in inter-league play. Milwaukee is 2-7 this year at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Milwaukee comes in losers of 3 of their last 4 games overall. Minnesota bullpen has a 2.89 ERA overall this year and a 3.04 ERA on the road this season. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.76 ERA overall this year and a 6.02 ERA at home this season. Francisco Liriano is 6-4 with a 2.98 ERA overall this year, 3.63 ERA on the road and a 2.05 ERA his last 3 starts. Manny Parra is 1-5 overall this year, 0-2 in all starts this season, 0-1 at home and 0-2 his last 3 starts. Minnesota is 11-4 overall vs Milwaukee the past 3 years. Liriano is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. Parra has a 6.97 ERA overall vs Minnesota since 1997. We'll play Minnesota for 4 units tonight!
SIDES
1-Unit Play. Take #966 Tampa Bay (-1.5, +115) over San Diego
Tampa Bay is pathetic right now but James Shields is always pretty tough at home. And Kevin Correia is terrible. Hes just awful. And if the Rays cant hit him they should pack it in for the rest of the year. Correia has a 6.66 road ERA and an ERA of 8.53 in his last four games total (6.68 in his last seven).
3-Unit Play. Take #969 Minnesota (-130) over Milwaukee
Id like to think that the Brewers cant toss out to horrible, pathetic, piss-poor lefties and beat the Twins twice in a row. Well see. Manny Parra sucks and the Twins have won over 70 percent of their last 85 interleague games over the last four-plus years. They lost last night and I think that they bounce back today. Milwaukee is terrible and they are just 20-9 in the last 29 meetings.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #973 Boston (+165) over Colorado
0.5-Unit Play. Take #973 Boston* (+1.5, -130) over Colorado
I think that John Lackey will be up to task here, it will just be a matter of if the Sox can crack Ubaldo Jiminez. I think that they will manage to scratch out enough runs to make Lackey hold up. Jiminez has been amazing. But he's also faced a lot of weak lineups. And I think that there is good value here on a Sox team that has been playing as well as anyone over the last month.
1-Unit Play. Take #960 Philadelphia (-1.5, +110) over Cleveland
Philadelphia has been terrible for a month. But they aren't a bad team. Cleveland is. I think that the Phillies have to be set up for a little bit of a run here. Even if Rollins isn't back in the flow, he's still back. And his confidence will rub off on the other players in the lineup. The Phils could be on a little up-tick here so let's get on early.
TOTALS
2.5-Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 Cincinnati at Oakland
2.5-Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 Atlanta at Chicago White Sox
2-Unit Play. Take Under 8.0 Boston at Colorado
1-Unit Play. Take Over 10.0 Cleveland at Philadelphia
1-Unit Play. Take Over 10.5 N.Y. Yankees at Arizona
1-Unit Play. Take Over 10.0 Pittsburgh at Texas
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 7.5 San Francisco at Houston
1-1 yesterday for PLUS 10 dimes or $100...overall, 64-69-3 MINUS 35 dimes.
Wednesday's Winners ... 20 DIME selection on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS over the Astros in the middle game of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park. As I publish today’s selections at approxamately 12:30 p.m. Eastern time, the Giants are ranging from a -115 to -120 favorite. NOTE: When making your wager, be sure to list Barry Zito as San Francisco’s starting pitcher. If Zito does NOT start, this play is VOID!
20 DIME selection on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES on the run line (-1½ runs) over the Indians in an interleague matchup at Citizens Bank Park. The line in this game is rangeing from Even to Philadelphia at +115. As with all run-line wagers, the starting pitchers are automatically listed, so Kyle Kendrick (Philadelphia) and Jake Westbrook (Cleveland) must start or this play is VOID!
20 DIME selection on the NEW YORK METS over the Tigers in an interleague matchup at Citi Field. New York is a slight favooite in this game, with the line ranging from -110 to -115. When making your wager, be sure to list R.A. Dickey as New York’s starting pitcher. If Dickey does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Giants
The raw numbers suggest that Houston right-hander Brett Myers has been domanant when pitching at home this year, as he’s 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in seven starts, with Houston winning six of those games. But dig a little deeper and you see that Myers has allowed nearly 1 ½ baserunners per inning at home (68 combined hits and walks in 46 2/3 innings), so he’s been walking a thin line.
One other thing those raw numbers don’t show is that the Astros’ otherwise pathetic offense has – for some reason – clicked with Myers pitching at Minutemaid Park, averaging nearly 6 runs per game. Here’s why it’s highly unlike Houston will come close to that number tonight: San Francisco’s Barry Zito had handcuffed the Astros twice already this season, scattereing three hits and a walk of six scoreless innings in a 3-0 road win back in opening week, then allowing three runs on six hits and one walk in seven innings of a 4-3 home win on May 16. In four of his five career starts against the Astros, Zito has allowed a total of seven runs in 26 innings (2.42 ERA).
That Zito has had his way with Houston isn’t a huge surprise, because the Astros are batting just .240 as a team against left-handed pitching. Over the last 10 games, that average sits at 1.97!
And while Myers’ home numbers are a bit deceoving, so too are Zito’s road numbers. He’s just 2-2 with a 3.54 ERA in six outings as a visitor, but he’s allowed held opponents to a .278 on-base percentage on the road while giving up just 35 hits and eight walks in 40 2/3 innings.
San Francisco rallied for a 3-1 win to open this series last night and has won nine straight against Houston and 11 of the last 13 (including six straight in Texas), and furthermore it is 52-25 last 77 meetings. The Giants are on additional surges of 12-6 overall, 16-5 against the N.L. Central, 36-17 as a favorite, 19-9 with Zito on the mound and 5-0 when Zito faces the N.L. Central. Conversely, the Astros have dropped five in a row and nine of 11 overall, 20 of 27 against the N.L. West, 47 of 67 as a home underdog and seven of 10 against left-handed starters.
Phillies (-1½ runs)
Looks like the light has gone on for Phillies right-hander Kyle Kendrick. He’s pitched the Phillies to victories in six of his last eight starts, and in those eight games Kendrick has delivered five absolute gems (four runs allowed in 35 innings in those five contests). On Friday, he completely dominated the Yankees in Yankee Stadium – no small feat at all! – allowing just a run on four hits and two walks in seven innings, rolling to a 7-1 win as a +200 underdog.
Granted, Kendrick has had his issues at home, posting a 6.32 ERA, including giving up five runs in each of his last two home outings against the Red Sox (4 2/3 innings) and Marlins (5 innings). However, the Phillies are still 6-2 in his last eight home starts. Besides, comparing the Indians’ offense to that of Boston’s or Florida’s is like comparing Betty White to Megan Fox on the beauty scale. Cleveland has a .247 team batting average and has scored more than four runs just 23 times in 69 games (and not once in the last six contests).
Indians right-hander Jake Westbrook has a 6.16 ERA in his last three starts and is coming off a 6-4 loss to the Mets, making the Indians 5-9 in his 14 starts this season. Also, 34 of Cleveland’s 43 losses this season – including 17 of the last 22 – have been by multiple runs. Meanwhile, 12 of Philadelphia’s last 13 games overall have been decided by more than one run, and the Phillies’ seven wins with Kendrick on the mound have been by scores of 7-1, 10-8, 3-2, 12-2, 9-5, 4-0 and 14-7.
Mets
At this point, I’m ready to play the Mets blindly when they’re at home, no matter the pitching matchup. Last night, New York crushed the Tigers 14-6, handing Justin Verlander just his second-ever interleague loss in 16 starts. So the boys from Queens have now won 25 of 35 games at Citi Field this season, including 21 of the last 26.
Overall, the Mets are on a 20-7 roll, and they own baseball’s best interleague record at 10-3 (only three losses to the Yankees), including four straight wins against the A.L. Central. On the flip side, Detroit has now dropped four of its last five road games overall, 37 of 53 as a road underdog, nine of 12 in National League parks and 39 of 57 as an underdog in interleague play.
All of this makes you wonder how this can be a pick-em contest tonight. Maybe because Detroit has the edge in starting pitching? Not in my opinion. Jeremy Bonderman is 3-4 with a 4.06 ERA in 12 starts, including 1-1 with a 5.03 ERA in his last three starts. New York knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is 5-0 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts (with the five wins coming in his last five trips to the hill). Bonderman is also 1-2 with a 6.03 ERA in six road starts, 0-3 with a 5.26 ERA in six night games, and he’s allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in two starts (11 innings) against the Mets.
Dickey is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in two home games, and he faced the Tigers five times from 2003-08 with Texas (four starts) and Seattle (one). Detroit’s record in those five games against Dickey? 1 win, 4 losses.
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