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The Minnesota Twins lost to the Detroit Tigers on Monday and at the same time lost their lead in the American League Central that they have held since opening day. Francisco Liriano allowed nine hits and six runs while striking out six over six innings of work but it was the four runs in the first followed by the run in the second that were his undoing. The loss was the sixth for Liriano and the seventh in their last 10 games for the now second place Twins. Jim Thome hit his seventh home run of the season and Thome, Orlando Hudson, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau all had two hits each but Minnesota was never able to dig themselves out of the hole that Liriano got them in. The Twins look to get back in the driver's set as they send Nick Blackburn to the mound for the start. Blackburn hasn't won in his last five starts and has been pummeled in the four that resulted in losses and for the year he has allowed 111 hits and 54 earned runs while striking out 26 in 79 and two-thirds innings of work. Blackburn beat the Tigers earlier this season. The Detroit Tigers have been battling it out in the AL Central all season long and they have finally emerged all alone in first place. Detroit has won five of their last 10 and two in a row as they have a half of a game lead in the division. Jeremy Bonderman was gifted and early lead and then he allowed nine hits and four runs in five and a third innings of work to earn his fourth win and Jose Valverde pitched an inning and two thirds to get his 18th save of the year. Gerald Laird hit his second home run and Austin Jackson, Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn, Miguel Cabrera, and Danny Worth all had two hits to pace the attack. The Tigers look to build on their lead as they send Armando Galarraga to the mound for the start. For the season Galarraga has allowed 38 hits and 18 earned runs while striking out 16 in 44 innings of work. Galarraga hasn't lost since the the perfect game plus one game. Minnesota is 39-17 in their last 56 against the American League Central, 5-1 in Blackburn's last six starts as a home favorite, and 41-19 in their last 60 games as a favorite. Detroit is 1-4 in their last five road games against a right handed starter and 19-40 in their last 59 as a road underdog. Detroit is 29-65 in their last 94 games in Minnesota.
The Rays look to build on their 12-4 record in their last 16 road games with the total set at 9 to 10 1/2. Tampa Bay is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, JUNE 29
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: NY Mets at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Takahashi) 16.259; Florida (Robertson) 15.037
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-125); Over
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.054; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.351
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Over
Game 955-956: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 14.249; Atlanta (Lowe) 14.043
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+170); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.668; Cubs (Lilly) 14.822
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-240); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-240); N/A
Game 959-960: Houston at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 15.851; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 16.136
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-240); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-240); Over
Game 961-962: Arizona at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Willis) 14.481; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.593
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-290); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-290); Under
Game 963-964: Colorado at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.805; San Diego (LeBlanc) 15.563
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120); Under
Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ely) 15.271; San Francisco (Cain) 15.549
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-145); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Lee) 15.458; NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.662
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Over
Game 969-970: Oakland at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 14.785; Baltimore (Matusz) 14.107
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Under
Game 971-972: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 14.405; Cleveland (Carmona) 14.098
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.590; Boston (Lackey) 15.322
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Under
Game 975-976: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 14.822; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.037
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Under
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 16.542; Kansas City (Bannister) 15.578
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130); Over
Game 979-980: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 16.915; LA Angels (Pineiro) 16.233
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+105); Over
Stephen Strasburg is not the only National League rookie that can pitch, as Mike Leake is also having a fine rookie campaign for the Cincinnati Reds, and we look for Leake to pitch his team to victory when the Reds host Joe Blanton and the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night.
Leake is a sparkling 5-1 this season, and his 2.92 ERA is third among National League rookie starters behind Strasburg and Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals. He did hit a bit of a rough patch recently, but he returned to his fine form last time out by limiting Oakland to one run on five hits in six innings. He should be tough on a Phillies lineup that is batting a modest .256 vs. right-handers on the road this year and that has never faced Leake before.
Blanton, on the other hand, is 3-5 despite pitching for a winning team with an ugly 6.53 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Granted, he pitches most of his games in a Hitter’s Paradise at Citizens Park, but the alarming aspect of his season is that he has a 9.27 ERA on the road with a horrid 1.79 WHIP. Sure, he comes in off of back-to-back Quality Starts, but both those outings came at home.
He has failed to record a Quality Start on the road all season, and the fewest runs Blanton has allowed away from home all year is five! He has not faced the Reds yet in 2010, but his last start in Cincinnati last season was a typically bad one, as he was roughed up for five earned runs on seven hits in just five innings.
This appears to be a bit of a pitching mismatch, especially when you factor in that the Cincinnati bullpen has a remarkable 1.67 ERA over the last 10 games while the Phillies pen is at 4.26 over this same span, so the Reds get the call as rather modest home favorites here.
WUNDERDOG
Complimentary Picks and Analysis
Game: Colorado at San Diego (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 -130
The San Diego Padres have gotten a lot more out of Wade LeBlanc then they bargained for at this stage of his career. LeBlanc has been brilliant, and in 13 starts on the season, he has allowed 2 runs or less in 10 of them. Jason Hammel's numbers don't look impressive, but it was all due to a very slow start. Hammel pitched to a 7.67 ERA through his first seven starts, but has been great since. His last six starts show just 7 runs allowed while pitching to a 1.25 ERA. The Rockies have really struggled vs. left-hand pitching, leading to a 10-1 mark in their last 11 vs. a southpaw. The Padres have now played to a 20-5-2 mark to the UNDER with a posted total of 7-8.5.
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