6-29-10

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

Andrew Lange

Pittsburgh (Karstens) at Chicago (Lilly)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh +1.5 -110

We picked up a unit yesterday after winning with Pittsburgh +1.5 against the Cubs. The game was close as expected and the Pirates actually emerged victorious 2-1. In hinDSIght, we would have loved to have had the +175 but heading in the Pirates were 25-50 and using that +1.5 on the road obviously ups our odds of victory. Today, we’ll once again use the +1.5 as Jeff Karstens matches up against Ted Lilly. Karstens has been serviceable this season with a 4.60 ERA. He posted a quality start against the Cubs back on June 1st with 6 innings and 2 earned runs. He’s your typical Pirates starter who will battle and keep his team in the game against weaker offenses like the Cubs. Lilly (3.28 ERA) has been fine this season but as a result of the Cubs’ ineptitude, they are only 5-7 when he pitches. Tack on the extra -1.5, and Chicago is 1-11 with Lilly on the mound – the lone spread cover came back in late April. I made a stink in late May that Cincinnati didn’t deserve to be such a big favorite over Pittsburgh – they were -170 in all four games. Well, the Reds took three of four and are now 43-34 which tells us they were priced correctly. The Cubs are 33-43 but were -185 yesterday and upwards of -240 at some shops today. It is the most obvious case of overpricing in the market today. Take Pittsburgh +1.5.

[rgs]

Re: 6-29-10

Bookie Monsters Free

Padres -120

[rgs]

Re: 6-29-10

ATS LOCK CLUB

5 UNIT Boston Red Sox -110
4 UNIT LA Angels -120

[rgs]

Re: 6-29-10

GREG SHAKER
BEST BET 2 PACK
3* Minnesota Twins (-123)
2* Boston Red Sox (-118)

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

jeff benton tuesday

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0-2 yesterday minus 20 dimes or $205..overall, 70-75-3 MINUS 60 dimes since i started my posts.

Jeff Benton Tuesday's Winners ... 15 DIME selection on the SAN DIEGO PADRES over the Rockies in the midale game of a three-game series from Petco Park. As I publish today’s plays, San Diego is a solid -120 favorite both here in Vegas and offshore. Note that you must list Wade LeBlanc as the Padres’ starting pitcheer. If LeBlanc doesn’t pitch, this play is VOID.

5 DIME selection on the Blue Jays-Indians UNDER the total. As I publish today’s plays, the total in this game – with the exceotion of one property in Las Vegas – is a solid 8. As with all over/under plays, pitchers are automatically listed, so Brandon Morrow and Fausto Carmona must start this game or this play is VOID.


Padres

Looking for a big bounce-back effort from San Diego after last night’s 10-6 loss to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies. And one big reason is left-hander Wade LeBlanc. Forget about his 4-5 record, as the Louisiana native has pitched MUCH better than that. He’s got a 3.16 ERA, and at home that ERA drops to 2.25. In 48 innings at Petco Park, LeBlanc has given up just 12 runs, and that includes back-to-back dominating perforaances in his last two home starts against the Mariners (one run in six innings) and Orioles (one run in 6 2/3 innings).

LeBlanc has yielded two runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts, and that includes a 3-2 home win over the Rockies on Mary 4. In that contest, LeBlanc yielded both runs and seven hits in six innings.

Why doesn’t LeBlanc have more victories to show for his efforts? Because the Padres’ offense has done a poor job of helping him out. In fact, they’ve scored three runs or fewer in eight of LeBlanc’s last 10 outings. Well, last night, after getting no-hit by Jimenez for five innings, San Diego erupteed for four sixth-inning runs and tacked on two more. They’ve scored 10 runs in the last two games and they’re averaging 4.9 runs in their last eight games, winning six of them.

Tonight, the Padres face Colorado right-hander Jason Hammel, who had started June with four straight impressive victories in which he gave up just one run in 29 1/3 innings. However, in his last outing, Hammel got touched up for four runs on seven hits in four innings of a 13-11 home loss to the Red Sox. More importantly, Hammel has been a different pitcher on the road (0-2, 6.55 ERA) than at home (5-1, 3.31 ERA). Also, in five career starts against the Padres, Hamel has posted a 5.29 ERA, with the Rockies losing the last three (including a 5-4 home defeat on April 10).

Two more points to make about the Rockies: 1) They’ve won consecutive road games just three times all season – and not once since May 31-June 1, and 2) With last night’s win, they improved to 15-1 in games started by Jimenez, but they’re just 25-35 when any other pitcher toes the rubber.

Throw in the fact the Padres are on positive runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 36-16 after a loss and 4-1 when LeBlanc faces N.L. West rivals, and I’ll lay the cheap price with complete confidence.


Blue Jays-Indians UNDER the total

Toronto right-hander Brandon Morrow has been a freaking stud over the past month. In five starts since May 31, Morrow has given up five runs and 17 hits in 34 innings (1.32 ERA). And those five starts all came against quality competition (Rays, Yankees, Rockies, Giants and Cardinals). Those five games finished with the following final scores: 3-2, 4-3, 1-0, 3-2 and 5-0, with all five staying UNDER the total.

Cleveland right-hander Fausto Carmona hasn’t been quite as dominating as Morrow lately, but he’s been more consistent over the course of the entire season. Carmona is 6-6 with a 3.64 ERA in 15 starts. In 12 of those 15 games, Carmona has allowed three earned runs or fewer, and 11 times this year the right-hander has gone at least six innings. And like Morrow, Carmona has been an “UNDER” pitcher of late. Prior to his last start (12-3 loss at Philadelphia), Carmona had stayed below the total in four consecutive starts and six of eight.

Carmona also has strong career numbers against Toronto, allowing just nine runs in 27 1/3 innings (2.96 ERA). That includes a two-run, 6 1/3-inning effort at home against the Jays on May 5. Most importantly, Carmona has never surrendered a home run to the Blue Jays, which is a point worth making since Toronto leads the majors with 115 home runs (the only team close is Boston with 103 big flies).

It’s really been feast or famine for the Blue Jays all season, as they hit just .239 as a team, which is tied for 28th out of 30 teams (only the Pirates and Astros at .238 are worse). Of course, the Indians aren’t much better, as their .248 team average is 25th best in baseball. And it’s not like either squad is killing it at the dish right now – Toronto is batting just .232 in its last 10 games, while Cleveland is hitting .248 in its last 10.

Bottom line: If the Blue Jays and Indians could only generate a total of three runs last night when one of the starting pitchers was Jake Westbrook, how are they going to triple that output tonight with the way Morrow and Carmona are dealing?

Anything more than six runs tonight would be shocking to me, so we’ve got value in this total and we’ll play it low.

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

win or lose pod 6/29

Tor

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

MY Sports Winner(phone)

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Philadephia Under **********
St Louis Run Line ******
Boston Red Sox ******

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

6/29 nsa

tonight:

20 twins-130
20 phillies+120
20 giants-145

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

Freddy Wills Premium Plays
6/29/10

Reds -122 (3-Dime OE play)
Twins -137 Betonline (4.5 Dime POD)

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

jimmy boyds game of the year?MLBJun 29 '10
7:10pTampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Take: Boston Red Sox -114in 1h3* MLB *Marquee Matchup* on Red Sox -114
The Red Sox are dealing with some key injuries, but they are clearly playing better baseball than Tampa Bay right now. The Rays' struggles are causing plenty of frustration, and I don't see those struggles coming to an end tonight. The Rays send Shields to the hill, and he has lost his last six starts, posting an ERA of 7.12 in that stretch. He is also 1-6 lifetime at Boston with an ERA of 7.53. Plus, the Rays are 4-12 in Shields' last 16 starts vs. the Red Sox. Lackey is on the bump for Boston and he has won his last 6 home starts. In addition, he's 10-3 lifetime with an ERA of 3.71 against the Rays. The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 14-3 in their last 17 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Red Sox.

-= TOP PLAY =- SportDateMatchupBookStartsMLBJun 29 '10
8:10pChicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals
Take: Chicago White Sox -127in 2h5* AL Central Game of the Year on White Sox -127
Since winning 11 straight, the White Sox have dropped 2 in a row. I expect them to show up with an extra sense of focus tonight to make sure these couple losses don't turn into a losing streak. The Sox have put themselves right back in the division race, and the last thing they want to do is fall out of it as quickly as they got back into it. They will be in good hands with Floyd, who has posted an ERA of 0.93 over his last 4 starts. Opponents are only hitting .155 off of him during this stretch. The Royals put Bannister on the hill, and his ERA is up to 9.69 over his last 3 starts. Bannister has a WHIP of 1.483 on the season, and that is significant as the White Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The White Sox are also a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games during game 2 of a series. Meanwhile, the Royals are 15-38 in their last 53 games during game 2 of a series. It also can't go unmentioned that KC is just 2-23 after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. I'm confident the Sox will bounce back tonight. Best of Luck!
SportDateMatchupBookStartsMLBJun 29 '10
8:10pDetroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins
Take: Minnesota Twins -123in 2h3* MLB *Motivational Mismatch* on Twins -123
After falling a half game out of first with yesterday's loss to the Tigers, look for the Twins to be extremely motivated to bounce back strong at home tonight. The Tigers are just 19-40 in their last 59 games as a road underdog and the Tigers are 29-65 in the last 94 meetings in Minnesota. Zooming in, the Tigers have lost 17 of their last 23 in Minnesota. Galarraga has never had any luck against the Twins. In fact, he's just 1-5 lifetime with an ERA of 5.80. The Tigers are also 3-10 in Galarraga's last 13 starts as a road underdog. Blackburn has had a couple rough starts on the road, but he will be glad to be back home where he is 4-0 with an ERA of 3.19 this season. The Twins have also won his last 3 starts against the Tigers and 7 of his last 8 against the AL Central. Minnesota is 15-4 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season, and I'll take the Twins in this price range today.

He is streaky and been on a slide the last couple days! Hopefully he bounces back today!! I put a bunch on it! BOL

Anyone get Charlie Sports 500 play of the day?

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

The Duke's Sports

BoSox (-107) for 2.5 Units

Despite some key injuries to Boston, we like them here. Boston is 44-18 as a home favorite, including 6-0 in team starts with Lackey. Lackey, who avenged TB in May from a tough outing at Fenway in April, should be on his game vs a slumping TB lineup batting just .171 vs righties this month. On the other hand, Shields is struggling and a mere 9-23 on the road vs teams with a winning record; furthermore, he is 0-6 in his last 6 team starts. We'll look for TB's winning streak at Fenway to end.

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

MY Sports Winner(phone)

Philadephia Under
St Louis Run Line
Boston Red Sox

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

Freddy Wills Premium Plays

Reds -122 (3-Dime play)
Twins -137 Betonline (4.5 Dime POD)

[spook]

Re: 6-29-10

GILL ALEXANDER

FREE PLAY Chicago White Sox -125

DORKY WINNERS PICK Pittsburgh Pirates +210.

[rgs]

Re: 6-29-10

Shut Em Down Sports
22-10 Run (69%)
Sat 2-1
Sun 1-0
Mon 2-1
Tue 3-1
Wed 4-0
Thu 2-2
Fri 2-1
Sat 4-1
Sun 2-1
Mon 0-2
Tue
NY Yankees -156
NY Yankees under 7.5 (-125)
Boston -120
Baltimore under 8.5 (-120)