7-5-10

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Re: 7-5-10

STEVE MERRIL

Arizona Diamondbacks


FREE PLAY

The Cubs limp into their series with the Arizona Diamondbacks having lost four of five and nine of their last 13 games. Tom Gorzelanny will make the start. He's 2-5 with a 3.34 ERA in 10 starts this season. The left hander is making his second start after moving back into the rotation from the bullpen. Gorzelanny has already defeated the Diamondbacks, but that was at home in Wrigley Field. Stephen Drew (6-15), Justin Upton (4-10), Chris Young (4-7), Tony Abreu (2-7), Rusty Ryal (2-5), Cole Gillespie (1-3), and Augie Ojeda (1-1) all have good numbers against the lefty. Arizona is hitting .275 as a team at home while averaging 5.5 runs per game.

Arizona’s Ian Kennedy finally gets to pitch at home. Kennedy has lost three straight starts which were all on the road. He believes he has fixed a mechanical flaw during a bullpen session earlier this week. At home, Kennedy is 1-1 with a 2.41 ERA in six outings this season. He has already defeated the Cubs at Wrigley Field when the wind was blowing out. In that game, he gave up five runs and six hits in eight innings of work. Derrek Lee (0-4), Alfonso Soriano (0-3), Geovany Soto (0-2), Xavier Nady (0-1), and Tyler Colvin (0-1) are all looking for their first hits off of Kennedy. Chicago is just 15-24 on the road averaging only 3.8 runs per game away from Wrigley. They have scored just 12 runs over their last seven games which were all at home. The Cubs have also scored just 14 runs in their last six road games. Chicago’s offense is in a major slump so we’ll recommend playing Arizona minus the short price in this game this afternoon.

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Re: 7-5-10

PURE LOCK

Tampa Bay Rays
-138
Free MLB Play

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Re: 7-5-10

R&R TOTALS

New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics Total
8½ over
Free MLB Over-Under

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Re: 7-5-10

Dave Cokin Comp
(953) CHICAGO CUBS
(954) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Take "(953) CHICAGO CUBS"

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Re: 7-5-10

Free Silver Key Pick for Monday ML Baseball

SEATTLE HERNANDEZ -R -195 over Kansas City (10:10 et)

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Re: 7-5-10

Dave Cokin

Solid Gold: Tampa Bay (moneyline)

Atl/Phil under

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Re: 7-5-10

Vegas Pro Sports Picks

Detroit -1,5 (+110)
Texas - 1.5 (-105)
Dodgers (-160)

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Re: 7-5-10

Charlie's sports
Free MLB Pick

Cubs-120 @ Diamondbacks. The (35-47) Chicago Cubs are playing poorly and the whole attitude in the clubhouse is gloomy, something better change fast in Wrigleyville . The (32-50) Arizona Diamondbacks are making changes everywhere and no one is safe in the organization, Cubs win-120.

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Re: 7-5-10

Tom Freese

15* Pitching Mismatch - Chicago White Sox

White Sox starter Gavin Floyd has been on the winning side in his last 3 starts. Chicago is 12-1 their last 13 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. The White Sox are 7-1 their last 8 home games. Chicago is 15-6 their last 21 home games off a road trip of 7 or more days. Angels starter Scott Kazmir has a losing record this year going 7-8. The Angels are 4-9 their last 13 road games when the total is 9.0 to 10.5. The Halos are 1-4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game. Kazmir is 2-6 when the total is 9.0 to 10.5.

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Re: 7-5-10

Dwayne Bryant
Free play

ARI (-123) vs CHC

Kirk Gibson taking over in 'Zona isn't going to magically make them a contender, but their level of play should pick up some. They lost 2 of 3 at home to the Dodgers, but they should find the Cubs more to their liking. Ian Kennedy's last 3 starts were all on the road (at Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Boston) and he got beat up a bit, as you would expect. But he's a completely different pitcher at home, where he owns a 2.41 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. The Cubs have scored three runs or fewer in SEVEN straight games. They are batting .205 during that span, going 7 for 50 with runners in scoring position. Looks like Kennedy's home success should continue.

Tom Gorzelanny may own a 2.70 ERA in 3 road starts, but his road WHIP of 1.32 tells me he's been more lucky than good. Walking a batter about every two innings will eventually catch up with you. Today just might be that day for Gorzelanny. And as bad as Arizona's bullpen has been, the Cubs pen has been even worse lately. Chicago's pen owns a 9.24 ERA, 2.45 WHIP, and .345 OBA over their last 5 games.

The D'backs are actually a decent team at Chase Field (19-20) and I think the matchup is right for them to get back to .500 at home today.

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Re: 7-5-10

Ben Burns

Mets

Phillies

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Re: 7-5-10

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT –1½ +1.16 over Baltimore

The Tigers will send out Andy Oliver to make just his third major league start and the best news in terms of wagering is that Oliver is 0-2 and that makes him undervalued. Fact is, he could easily be 2-0 after throwing two rock-solid games against Atlanta and Minnesota, both on the road. In 12 innings, Oliver allowed just four earned runs while walking three and striking out 10. Oliver has four pitches that he commands well and watching him you can’t help but be impressed by his smooth and easy delivery. Now he’ll take a huge step down in class against an O’s team that has won four times in 16 games against lefties on the road. Overall, the O’s are 7-20 vs southpaws. Kevin Millwood is coming off a horrendous 8.82 ERA in June. Millwood won his last two games, which is once again proof how misleading W/L records can be. Over those two starts in which Millwood pitched the minimum five innings in both to qualify for a win, he allowed 16 hits, walked four and struck out five in those 10 innings. In five innings against the Marlins he threw 116 pitches and followed that up by throwing 108 pitches in five frames against the A’s. Millwood is not fooling anyone. He’s 35-years-old and his arm looks dead. He’ll pitch in the scorching heat today in a matinee game against a kid with a live arm, who can’t wait to get out there. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units).


CHICAGO –1½ +1.42 over L.A. Angels

The Angels had a breakout day yesterday by scoring 11 times but they faced an unproven career minor-leaguer named Anthony Lerew. Prior to that they were struggling miserably at the plate and you can expect more of that here against Gavin Floyd. Floyd (90 BPV, 5-5-4-5-3 PQS) is coming off a 2.58 ERA in June, has a 50% GB% for the year, hasn’t coughed up a HR in his last five starts and has allowed only two walks in his last three outings. Over his last five starts Floyd has allowed just five earned runs and has been the AL’s best pitcher over that stretch with an ERA of 1.26. Furthermore, the South Side is 8-1 over its last nine home games and they’re coming off a series win in Texas against the previously red-hot Rangers. The real kicker here, however, is betting against Scott Kazmir. Kazmir (6 BPV, 5-3-3-0-0 PQS) remains primarily a two-pitch pitcher without his once-lethal slider, something that hasn’t worked well for most of the season and not at all recently, as suggested by his last two PQS scores of zero. The signs say bet against him and that 1.2 hr/9 against a RH-leaning CHW lineup in HR-happy U.S Cellular Field. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).


TEXAS –1½ +1.00 over Cleveland

First off, the Indians are now without Russell Branyan and Shin-Soo Choo, Combined, that duo has 23 jacks and 67 RBI’s. The rest of the team is loaded with guys that have anywhere between 1 and 6 bombs. This team was struggling offensively before Choo and Branyon went down and now one really has to wonder where the offense will come from. In order to win or cover the 1½-runs here, the Indians are going to have to score at least five times or more and that’s a huge stretch. They’ll face a rookie they’ve never seen by the name of Omar Beltre. Beltre hasn't pitched in the U.S. since '04 due to the inability to obtain a work visa. Beltre was pitching in the Dominican Summer League between '05 and '09. He has a nice assortment of pitches including a 90-96 mph fastball thrown with very quick arm action. His best pitch may be his hard splitter, which he buries deep in the strike zone and induces his fair share of groundballs. Beltre rounds out his arsenal with a good slider and in his first start against the Angels he struck out six in four frames. With that first start out of the way and a much-easier opponent here, expect better things from Beltre. Besides, the Indians will send out career stiff Aaron Laffey. Laffey shut down a struggling TOR offense in his last start, but his career and year-to-date numbers scream that the light-groundballer is very likely going to get ruined at this park. Play: Texas –1½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

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Re: 7-5-10

Matt Rivers, Executive Handicapper at OffshoreInsiders has a free winner for Monday on the Mets.

Mike Pelfrey has not been as good as the first six or so weeks to the season but I do think he is a little cheap here. I backed the Mets in this exact comp spot yesterday and cashed the ticket and will expect history to repeat itself today.

Aaron Harang is good but nothing more these days and should get outpitched here at Citi Field. The veteran right-hander is a little inconsistent as we see a quality start followed by a poor start.

The Mets are a little banged up again with Jose Reyes missing some action but all in all are a good team and are right there in the NL East. Jerry Manual has literally gone from being on a very, very hot seat to the potential Manager of the Year.

The Reds are a good team and I am somewhat sold on them but I'm still not buying into them being Division champion good. Sure Joey Votto is awesome and Bruce, Stubbs, Philips and Rolen are quality bats leading the way but Cincinnati is still not an upper echelon club or as good as these New Yorkers.

I expect Pelfrey to be very good, maybe not great but very good and at home laying only around double juice is a solid value. The Mets have been great at home all season long with Wright, Bay, Francouer and others and at what appears to be a cheapish price I'll make a small play on Pelfrey and the Amazins.

The pick: NY Mets

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Re: 7-5-10

HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-July 5th

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
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2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
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[958] New York |-125|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST

[966] Tampa Bay |-140|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST

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Re: 7-5-10

DEANO'S
HRC Smart Choice* Best Bets|Your Capping Agent-July 5th

Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*************************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*************************

[956] Philadelphia |5*|-166|B+0|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST

[962] Detroit |5*|+115|-1.5 Runs|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST