7-5-10

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Re: 7-5-10

WUNDERDOG

Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
5 UNIT Play: Seattle Mariners -1½

The Seattle Mariners have a pair of aces and not much else within the starting rotations. One of those aces, Felix Hernandez takes the mound tonight to open the M's series with the Kansas City Royals. It is one thing to have an ace on the mound, but when that ace is "in the zone" as Hernandez is, opponents are going to struggle. Hernandez has pitched three straight complete games, and in his last four starts has gone at least 8.2 innings. He has been in the groove, allowing just 16 hits in the 35.2 innings, pitching to a 1.26 ERA. The Royals counter with a struggling Brian Bannister who has completed just 17 innings in his last four starts allowing 18 runs. The Royals are just 1-7 when Bannister gets the ball with a moneyline from +151 to +200. I like Seattle on the runline in this one.

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Re: 7-5-10

TRENDS

SAN FRANCISCO at MILWAUKEE
SANCHEZ: SF 22-9 Under after a one run loss
BUSH: MIL 4-13 at home with a money line of -100 to -150

CHICAGO CUBS at ARIZONA
GORZELANNY: CHC 13-1 Under Away after 5+ consecutive home games
KENNEDY: ARI 11-21 when the money line is +125 to -125

ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA
LOWE: ATL 10-2 Under after 3 consecutive division games
HALLADAY: PHI 6-10 when the total is 8 to 8.5

CINCINNATI at NY METS
HARANG: CIN 8-2 as a road underdog of +100 to +125
PELFREY: NYM 15-27 when playing on Monday

FLORIDA at LA DODGERS
ROBERTSON: FLA 5-12 against NL West
ELY: LAD 19-7 after allowing 2 runs or less

BALTIMORE at DETROIT
MILLWOOD: 17-5 Under as an underdog of +150 or more
OLIVER: DET 6-13 at home when playing on Monday

LA ANGELS at CHI WHITE SOX
KAZMIR: LAA 40-15 in July
FLOYD: 19-8 Under in night games

BOSTON at TAMPA BAY
MATSUZAKA: BOS 42-11 after 5+ consecutive home games
GARZA: TB 5-9 at home when the total is 9 to 9.5

CLEVELAND at TEXAS
LAFFEY: CLE 17-5 Over Away when the total is 10 or higher
BELTRE: TEX 33-18 Over at home against AL Central

NY YANKEES at OAKLAND
VAZQUEZ: NYY 7-11 after a win by 2 runs or less
SHEETS: 29-10 Under as a home underdog

KANSAS CITY at SEATTLE
BANNISTER: KC 6-0 revenging BB home losses
HERNANDEZ: SEA 10-26 after 2+ consecutive road games

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Re: 7-5-10

Nelly
Free play

Boston + over Tampa Bay

The last game where these teams met featured the exact same pitching match-up with Tampa Bay winning 9-4. Five runs for the Rays came from reliever Manny Delcarmen, who failed to record an out. Daisuke Matsuzaka had a solid start, allowing just four hits in six innings and he has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last six outings. Matsuzaka has strong numbers on the road and he has only allowed one home run in his last nine starts. In five of his last six starts he has allowed five or fewer hits. Tampa Bay is struggling on offense as well, batting just .237 in the last ten games against right-handed pitching. In those match-up the Red Sox are hitting .297 in that span and Matt Garza has struggled against the Red Sox. In his last home start versus Boston, Garza allowed six runs in five innings in an 11-3 loss. Garza has allowed three or more runs in each of his last seven starts and he has worse numbers at home for the year. Boston has won four of the last five meetings between these teams and the Red Sox are 20-7 in Matsuzaka's last 27 road starts. Boston has been the better team in recent weeks and with underdog value this should be a great opportunity.

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Re: 7-5-10

Michael Cannon
Free play

I’m now 71-63 with my last 134 free plays.

Take the Brewers for the home win this afternoon over the Giants.

I’m not really enamored with this price but the Brew Crew should get it done over the slumping Giants.

San Francisco has dropped eight of its last nine overall and nine of its last 12 on the road.

The Giants are also coming off a tough, 15-inning loss yesterday and their bullpen is taxed right now. Jonathan Sanchez will start but he’s failed to make it out of the sixth inning in his last three starts. The prospects of the Giants winning with a tired bullpen are almost nil if Sanchez doesn’t do his part tonight.

Milwaukee will counter with Dave Bush, who suffered his first loss in more than a month on Wednesday. The right-hander had been 2-0 with a 2.93 ERA in six appearances since his prior loss on May 21.

Look for Bush to get back to form and for the Brewers to grab the home win.
3? MILWAUKEE

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Re: 7-5-10

JEFF BENTON
Free play

Can’t seem to catch a break with my premium selections, but I continue to kill it with my free plays, as the Pirates rolled in Sunday as a nice underdog. That’s now four of five free winners, and even better I’m now on a 99-65-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Monday, we’ll head to Oakland and play the A’s as a home pup against the Yankees.

Very tough situational spot for the defending champions, who head back to the West Coast after a brief and somewhat disappointing six-game homestand (prior to splitting six games with the Mariners and Blue Jays, New York was in L.A. and Arizona for six games of interleague play). Although the Yankees went 4-2 against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, they’re otherwise barely a .500 road team (18-16).

On the other hand, Oakland has been solid at home (24-16), and a big reason has been veteran right-hander Ben Sheets, who is 3-2 with a 3.19 ERA in eight home games (the A’s have won four of his last five at home). Yes, one of Sheets’ losses came on April 21 to the Yankees – a 3-1 setback – but Sheets was actually outstanding in that contest, holding New York to two runs on four hits and three walks in six innings.

The Yankees counter Sheets with Javy Vazquez, who has been better of late, but is still just 6-7 with a 5.11 ERA overall and 3-4 with a 5.76 ERA in eight road games.

Finally, although the quality of competition wasn’t great – Cleveland, Baltimore and Pittsburgh – the A’s do come into this contest on a 7-2 roll, and the pitching has been the key, holding the opposition to two runs or fewer in six of the last eight games. Meanwhile, the Yankees have been playing .500 baseball for three weeks (9-8 last 17 games). Lots of a solid value with the home pup here.

(based on a 1? to a 10? Rating)

4? OAKLAND A'S

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Re: 7-5-10

STAN SHARP

2* DOUBLE DIME NY Yankees

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Re: 7-5-10

Indian Cowboy MLB

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Under on cubs, big surprise.
The Cubs have just been miserable this year. They Cubs are usually bad, but they have been even worse this year it seems. They do have one bright spot and that is how well Gorzo is pitching. Although he is 2-5, he does have a 3.14 era and he has done a good job of replacing Carlos Zambrano who is indefinitely suspended. Gorzo has given up just one run in eight innings of work in two appearances. I expect him to continue to pitch strong for the Cubs on the road today as he seeks his third win and looks to stay in the rotation. In that same token, Ian Kennedy had a rare non-quality start in his last appearance in interleague play. Ian has lost his last three decisions which I believe will be a catalyst for him to do well today. Note, he gave up nine walks in his last game against TampaBay on the road and it was a tough interleague trip for him. Nevertheless, he still managed to pitch relatively well as he has pitched four straight unders and still has an era of 3.77. I look for him to bounce-back well here at home today as he has an incredible amount of rest from his last start on June 26th. He has likely worked out the kinks from that start as well. The Under is 9-2-5 in the Cubs last 16 road games when the total is set at this range and the Under is 4-1 in Kennedy's last five starts when the total is set at this range.

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Re: 7-5-10

Comps
Winner Line-UNDER KC
OTM-UNDER Red Sox
Astro-Seattle
Kevin Kennedy-KC

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Re: 7-5-10

MIKE LINEBACK

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) -
7:10 PM EDT Premium Play
4* Pick: Money Line: -138 Tampa Bay Rays Play Title:

Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers (MLB) -
8:05 PM EDT Premium Play
4* Pick: Total: 10.5/-105 Over Play Title:

Florida Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) -
9:10 PM EDT Premium Play
4* Pick: Point Spread: -1.5/132 Los Angeles Dodgers Play Title

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Re: 7-5-10

NSA
20 NY Yankees-145
20 TB Rays -155
20 Cincinnati Reds+120

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Re: 7-5-10

DOCTOR SPORTS

TOP PLAY
WHITE SOX -151
floyd -vs kazmir
__________________

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Re: 7-5-10

PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS
5* Seattle Mariners R/L
3* Diamondbacks

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Re: 7-5-10

GINO MORETTI
WINNING TICKET SF/MIL Over 9 +100

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Re: 7-5-10

LOCKLINE SPORTS
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox

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Re: 7-5-10

MIKE HOOK

MLB ML - Monday, Jul 5 2010 7:10PM
ML 966 TAM (-155) Bodog vs 965 BOS double-dime bet

Analysis: The Tampa Bay Rays -155 is our Double Star Play of the Day for Monday, July 5th!