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Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
When the Royals host the Athletics in the opener of a three game series at Kauffman Stadium they will send ace right-hander Zach Greinke to the mound against Gio Gonzalez knowing Greinke is in commanding KW form with five walks and 41 strikeouts in his last six starts. He's also 3-0 in his last three starts in this series with four walks and 24 strikeouts to show for his efforts. With Gonzlalez just 1-3 in his last four tries on the road, look for Greinke to make it four straight team starts wins here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
You may want to consider a second look at the Blue Jays in this situation:
Ricky Romero gets the nod for the visitors; Romero struggled into the All-Star Break, however I believe he'll bounce back after the layoff and continue his stellar play.
He's dropped his last three starts and has a disturbing 11.25 ERA over that span; keep in mind though that he's 6-6 on the year with a respectable 3.71 ERA; also remember that Romero has already beaten the Orioles this season.
In the other dugout: Brad Bergesen heads to the hill for the home side; Bergesen last won on May 12th against the lowly Mariners; since then he's 0-4 with a 7.22 ERA; he got a "no decision" in a home loss in April to Toronto (part of a 3-game sweep).
Bottom line: I'm not reading too much into Baltimore's four game win streak heading into the break; this team is on pace to rocket past its franchise-worst 107 loss season in 1988.
Bergesen is susceptible to the long ball and will be in tough against a very focused and rested Toronto team that leads the majors in that category (136).
Romero is the better pitcher; the Blue Jays offer decent value in this spot!
Mets starter Jonathon Niese has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. New York is 14-3 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 12-4 off a loss and they are 12-4 off a loss. The Mets are 6-1 in the last 7 starts made by Niese. The Mets are 12-5 their last 17 meetings with the Giants. San Francisco starter Barry Zito has allowed 10 runs in his last 16 innings of work. The Giants are 2-8 their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 8-20 with Zito when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their last game
To say that Tampa Bay's starting pitcher James Shields is having a poor season is an understatement. Going into the All-Star break, Shields has lost eight of his last nine starts has a losing record at 7-9 and an ERA of 4.87. Shields has had two good, but not great outings against the Yankees this season posting a 1-0 record with an ERA of 3.55 in two games but in his career his overall numbers against the Bronx Bombers are not good at 2-7 lifetime in eleven starts with an ERA of 5.54. Shields will not have much margin for error as the Yankees will send CC Sabathia to the mound for this game. Sabathia is on a roll at 12-3 for the season with an ERA of 3.09. In his last three outings Sabathia has been even better as he has posted a 3-0 record with an ERA of just 1.19. Sabathia is also 8-3 against Tampa in sixteen career starts with an ERA of just 2.97 and he threw 7 2/3 innings of one hit, shutout ball against the Rays earlier this season. I expect another dominating performance by Sabathia and the Yankees are 9-1 in Sabathia's last ten home starts against a team with a winning record. Play on New York.
100* Play Atlanta (-175) over Milwaukee
Game starts at 7:30 PM EST
Atlanta has won 20 of the last 24 home games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and they have also won 19 of the last 23 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Tommy Hanson has won 16 of the last 19 games when pitching as a favorite of -125 to -175 and he has also won 6 of the last 7 games when working on 5 or 6 days of rest.
New York has won 8 of the last 9 games and they have also won 17 of the last 20 games coming off seven or more road games. C.C. Sabathia has won 20 of the last 26 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is 6-0 at home this season with an ERA of 2.37.
Baltimore has lost 6 consecutive games vs. Toronto and they have also lost 21 of the last 26 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs. Bradley Bergessen has lost 16 of the last 20 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.11.
Play Kansas City (-135) over Oakland (POD)
8:10 P.M. EST
Oakland is 1-8 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season
Oakland is 3-15 in road games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less
Zack Greinke is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.74
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