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20 DIME selection on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS over the Dodgers in the second game of a four-game series. The Cardinals are a solid favorite in this game, with the price ranging from -130 to -140, so be sure to shop around and get the best of the number. Also, you must list Jaime Garcia as the Cardinals’ starting pitcher. If Garcia does not start, this play is VOID!
10 DIME selection on the HOUSTON ASTROS over the Pirates in the opener of a three-game series. This line in this game is ranging from a pick-em to the Astros as a -120 favorite, so again be sure to grab the best number possible. You must list both Brett Myers of Houston and Zach Duke of Pittsburgh as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
Cardinals
Simply put, the Dodgers cannot win in St. Louis. With last night’s 7-1 shellacking, Los Angeles dropped to 6-20 in its last 26 games at Busch Stadium. That includes three losses in games that Chad Billingsley has started under the arch. In fact, the Dodgers are just 1-4 all-time when Billingsley faces the Cardinals, and if you take away the one win – a 7-3 home victory last August – Billingsley’s ERA against the Cards is 5.23.
Billingsley’s counterpart tonight is rookie left-hander Jaime Garcia, who might have been the biggest snub of all at this week’s All-Star game. Garcia failed to earn a spot on the N.L. roster despite an 8-4 record and a 2.17 ERA. At home this season, Garcia has been brilliant, allowing just six earned runs in 45 innings (1.20 ERA).
Garcia is facing a Dodgers offense that has not hit left-handed pitching very well this season (.256 average compared with .271 against righties). Also, the Dodgers have now dropped below .500 on the road (21-22). Conversely, the Redbirds are now 28-15 at Busch Stadium, and the main reason – as we saw on Thursday with Chris Carpenter – has been pitching, as St. Louis’ staff sports a 2.80 team ERA at home.
The Cards have won eight of their last 11 home games against right-handed starters and 21 of their last 28 on Friday (L.A. is 1-4 in its last five Friday contests). Finally, the home team has dominated this rivalry lately, winning 13 of the last 18 meetings, including all four clashes this season.
Astros
Obviously, nobody’s gotten rich playing the Astros on the road, especially as a favorite. But I’m willing to give Houston and Brett Myers a shot tonight in Pittsburgh for several reasons.
First and foremost, the Astros have manhandled the Pirates this season, winning all six meetings by a combined score of 33-13. Granted, all six games were played in Houston, but still, going back to last year, the Astros are 22-6 against the Pirates, including 4-1 in the last five games at PNC Park.
As for Myers, he’s been very good of late, holding seven of his last 10 opponents to two earned runs or less. In his final two starts prior to the All-Star break, Myers surrendered just three runs on nine hits and one walk in 14 innings. And the right-hander has been durable as hell, going at least six innings in each of his 18 starts this season.
Myers owns a 10-3 victory against the Pirates this season, and he’s got a 2.68 career ERA against Pittsburgh in nine appearances (eight starts).
The Pirates get lefty Zach Duke back from the disabled list tonight, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. He’s just 3-8 with a 5.49 ERA this year, including 0-4 with an 8.18 ERA in his last four outings before going on the shelf.
Throw in the fact the Astros have won four of five as a favorite and five of seven against N.L. Central rivals, while the Pirates have lost 38 of 52 overall (including the last six in a row) and five of Duke’s last six home starts, and this is a strong play at a cheap price.
5-STAR Texas (Colby Lewis) -125 over BOSTON (Felix Doubront) - This line would be much higher if not for the allure of playing Boston in Fenway. Texas features the better lineup, hotter lineup, healthier lineup and much better pitcher in this one at a cheap line.
Playing in Fenway wasn't a problem for Texas yesterday in a 7-2 win. The Rangers are 11-0 since July 31, 2009 as a favorite after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100.
Texas jumped out to six runs in the first inning and cruised to victory with 12 hits. The Rangers are 10-1 since May 07, 2010 after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $950.
The damage could have been even worse in Texas hadn't left 20 on base individually. The Rangers are 9-1 since May 02, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $835. Also, The Red Sox are 0-9 since May 14, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $900 when playing.
Boston managed six hits in yesterday's contest. The Rangers are 10-1 since May 08, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $940. Also, the Red Sox are 1-12 since May 27, 2009 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $1070 when playing against.
After giving up six runs in the first, Boston never led in the game. The Red Sox are 0-6 since September 29, 2009 at home when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
PROPICKSWEEKLY
5 UNIT Cincinnati Reds -117
5 UNIT Milwaukee Brewers +169
5 UNIT Minnesota Twins +134
5 UNIT St. Louis Cardinals -127
5 UNIT Seattle Mariners +124
Matchup: Houston at Pittsburgh
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) MYERS, B vs. (L) DUKE, Z
Play: Houston (ML -115)
The Astros are not much good on the road, and the Pirates are actually not far from being a .500 team at home. But I'm looking for Houston to emerge with the win tonight. Brett Myers is throwing it really well for the Astros, and there's no reason he can't put together another quality start facing a popgun Pittsburgh attack that has been notably feeble against almost every decent righty they've faced. Duke is off an injury, and his two rehab stints with Altoona, while reasonably effective, were just seven innings total in duration. It's also interesting to note that while Duke is not a strikeout pitcher, he had just one K in the two AA games, low even by his standards. The Astros are not horrible against lefties, and I like their chances of notching a win tonight as cheap road chalk.
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