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Re: 7-19-10 monday
MTI Sports
Guaranteed Pick: MTI Sports
Game: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 19 2010 10:10PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason: The Dodgers are off a 5-4 loss in St Louis in which they took a 4-0 lead into the bottom of the eighth and a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth. LA has been terrific for a long time in this spot. The Dodgers are 21-0 as a favorite when they are off a one-run loss, as long as it is not the fourth game of a series. LA has won these 21 games by an average of 5.2 runs. This team trend goes back to 2008, the same season that Joe Torre became the Dodgers’ manager. This season, the Dodgers are 6-0 under these conditions, outscoring their opponent 8.7 runs to 3.0 runs.
In addition, LA is 8-0 at home after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and 5-0 at home when they are off a loss in which they held the lead.
The Giants recent run has them ahead of the Dodgers in the standings and this is relevant because San Francisco is 0-5 on the road vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the standings.
MTi’s FORECAST: LA DODGERS 5 San Francisco 3
Guaranteed Pick: MTI Sports
Game: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Jul 19 2010 7:05PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
Reason: The Brewers are not in a spot in which they have rewarded their investors. Milwaukee is 2-12 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings, including 0-4 THIS season. In their four 2010 qualifying games, the Brewers never led, scored a total of four runs and allowed a total of thirty runs.
The Brewers just beat Karstens 4-3 as a 165 home favorite on the tenth of this month. However, they are 2-12 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and they won the last time they faced their opponent’s starting pitcher – including 0-6 their last six.
Also, Milwaukee is 0-6 as a favorite after scoring 6+ runs.
We had the Pirates yesterday, when they beat up on the Astros 9-0 as a 130 dog. Pittsburgh is 5-0 as a dog when they are off a win in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter.
Finally, the Pirates are 5-0 as a home dog with Karstens and the Brewers are 0-17 with Capuano when they lost his last start, losing by an average of 4.0 runs per game. The line value here is with the Pirates.
MTi’s FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 6 Milwaukee 3
Guaranteed Pick: MTI Sports
Game: Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners Jul 19 2010 10:10PM
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Reason: David Pauley gave up two hits and a walk in five innings vs the Yankees in his first start of the season. That’s a WHIP of 0.60. Yes, the stat sheet says he allowed three runs, but two were inherited.
In Daniel Hudson’s first start of the season, his poor outing was masked by the fact that he was at home vs the Royals and that the Sox scored 15 runs for him. Hudson allowed five runs in four innings of work, walking three batters. This will be his first road start of the season – and he’s the favorite?
Yesterday, the White Sox had an unqualified disaster against their key division rival in Minnesota. They took a 6-3 lead into the ninth and Jenks walks the first two batters he faces and the Twins go on to win 7-6. Chicago is a very poor 1-9 as a FAVORITE when they are off a loss in which they used at least five pitchers. Their lone win came when they beat the Royals 5-4 with Peavy after trailing by three runs.
The M’s nipped the Angels 2-1 in extra frames yesterday and this is a momentum builder for them. Seattle is 12-1 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning – including an amazing 8-0 THIS season. Their lone loss was vs the Yankees and Sabathia.
Also, the Mariners are 12-1 THIS season at home after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits, with their lone loss to Joe Saunders.
Finally, Seattle is a supportive 5-0 at home when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and 5-0 at home after a one run win. Let’s take the home dog here.
MTi’s FORECAST: SEATTLE 5 Chicago 3
MTI Sports
Guaranteed Pick: MTI Sports
Game: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 19 2010 10:10PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason: The Dodgers are off a 5-4 loss in St Louis in which they took a 4-0 lead into the bottom of the eighth and a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth. LA has been terrific for a long time in this spot. The Dodgers are 21-0 as a favorite when they are off a one-run loss, as long as it is not the fourth game of a series. LA has won these 21 games by an average of 5.2 runs. This team trend goes back to 2008, the same season that Joe Torre became the Dodgers’ manager. This season, the Dodgers are 6-0 under these conditions, outscoring their opponent 8.7 runs to 3.0 runs.
In addition, LA is 8-0 at home after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and 5-0 at home when they are off a loss in which they held the lead.
The Giants recent run has them ahead of the Dodgers in the standings and this is relevant because San Francisco is 0-5 on the road vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the standings.
MTi’s FORECAST: LA DODGERS 5 San Francisco 3
Guaranteed Pick: MTI Sports
Game: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Jul 19 2010 7:05PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
Reason: The Brewers are not in a spot in which they have rewarded their investors. Milwaukee is 2-12 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings, including 0-4 THIS season. In their four 2010 qualifying games, the Brewers never led, scored a total of four runs and allowed a total of thirty runs.
The Brewers just beat Karstens 4-3 as a 165 home favorite on the tenth of this month. However, they are 2-12 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and they won the last time they faced their opponent’s starting pitcher – including 0-6 their last six.
Also, Milwaukee is 0-6 as a favorite after scoring 6+ runs.
We had the Pirates yesterday, when they beat up on the Astros 9-0 as a 130 dog. Pittsburgh is 5-0 as a dog when they are off a win in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter.
Finally, the Pirates are 5-0 as a home dog with Karstens and the Brewers are 0-17 with Capuano when they lost his last start, losing by an average of 4.0 runs per game. The line value here is with the Pirates.
MTi’s FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 6 Milwaukee 3
Guaranteed Pick: MTI Sports
Game: Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners Jul 19 2010 10:10PM
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Reason: David Pauley gave up two hits and a walk in five innings vs the Yankees in his first start of the season. That’s a WHIP of 0.60. Yes, the stat sheet says he allowed three runs, but two were inherited.
In Daniel Hudson’s first start of the season, his poor outing was masked by the fact that he was at home vs the Royals and that the Sox scored 15 runs for him. Hudson allowed five runs in four innings of work, walking three batters. This will be his first road start of the season – and he’s the favorite?
Yesterday, the White Sox had an unqualified disaster against their key division rival in Minnesota. They took a 6-3 lead into the ninth and Jenks walks the first two batters he faces and the Twins go on to win 7-6. Chicago is a very poor 1-9 as a FAVORITE when they are off a loss in which they used at least five pitchers. Their lone win came when they beat the Royals 5-4 with Peavy after trailing by three runs.
The M’s nipped the Angels 2-1 in extra frames yesterday and this is a momentum builder for them. Seattle is 12-1 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning – including an amazing 8-0 THIS season. Their lone loss was vs the Yankees and Sabathia.
Also, the Mariners are 12-1 THIS season at home after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits, with their lone loss to Joe Saunders.
Finally, Seattle is a supportive 5-0 at home when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and 5-0 at home after a one run win. Let’s take the home dog here.
MTi’s FORECAST: SEATTLE 5 Chicago 3
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