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In the series opener yesterday, The Blue Jays took a 2-0 lead in the top of the second. Detroit scored one in the bottom of the fourth and then tied it with a lone run in the bottom of the fifth. It remained tied at two until the bottom of the eighth when the Tigers plated three to win 5-2.
This result activates two strong team trends. The Blue Jays are a defeatist 0-9 as a dog when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they held the lead. The Tigers are a perfect 12-0 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit. All the games that make up these two trends are from THIS season.
In addition, the Blue Jays are 0-8 on the road when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and 0-9 (-3.9 rpg) as a road dog vs a team on at least a two game winning streak, as long as their opponent has a record below 590. Conversely, Detroit is a reliable 12-1 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series.
In Porcello’s last start, he went eight innings, allowed a single run on six hits and did not walk a batter. The Tigers scored first, but the Indians tied it at one and won it 2-1 in extra innings. Detroit is 7-0 with Porcello at home when he went at least four innings and they lost his last start. Every win was by multiple runs.
Finally, the Tigers are the most profitable team in the league when ‘picking-up” their starter when they did not support him well in his last start. Detroit is 31-10 when they scored fewer than three runs in their starter’s last start and lost, making 21.2 net units. The Giants are a distance second, with a record of 32-19 and a profit of 15.2 units. Marcum is in a very tough spot here. Lay the small price.
10 UNIT* MLB* San Francisco Giants -110 ML
15 UNIT* MLB* Minnesota Twins -135 ML
3 UNIT* MLB* Chicago White Sox +125 ML
50 UNIT* MLB* Cincinnati Reds -150 ML
The Tigers are a very good team at home, but the pitching matchup heavily favors the Blue Jays. These teams are almost identical, but Marcum will be the difference-maker tonight. Take Toronto
San Francisco is 7-1 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Arizona is 10-26 this year against division opponents. San Francisco has won 8 of their last 10 games overall. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 8 games overall. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.12 ERA overall this year. Arizona bullpen has a 6.46 ERA overall this year and a 5.52 ERA at home this season. Jonathan Sanchez has a 3.42 ERA overall this year. Edwin Jackson is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll play San Francisco for 4 units tonight!
4* Oakland -140
Chicago White Sox have lost 4 of their last 6 games overall while Oakland comes in winners of 7 of their last 8 games overall this season. Oakland bullpen has a 2.79 ERA at home this year. Mark Buehrle is 3-6 on the road this year. Trevor Cahill is 9-3 with a 3.19 ERA overall this year and 5-1 with a 2.14 ERA at home this season. Buehrle is 3-12 overall vs Oakland since 1997 and his team is only 4-16 in his starts vs Oakland since 1997. We'll play Oakland for 4 units tonight!
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