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Re: 8-5-10
Capri
Paradise Play,
Minnesota / Tampa Bay UNDER 9
Capri
Paradise Play,
Minnesota / Tampa Bay UNDER 9
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Re: 8-5-10
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Detroit vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET: Scherzer vs Garcia – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
While Comerica Park is a spacious ballpark, the wind is expected to be blowing out to left field today. Also, the fact that this is an afternoon game means that the ball is likely to carry better than it usually does. Keep in mind, the only day game in this series was Game One of Tuesday’s double-header. We had the over there and the teams combined for 14 runs and we’re looking for more of the same here. Even though yesterday’s game stayed under the total, note that the teams combined for 19 hits. Also, Game Two of the double-header Tuesday just missed going over the total as the Tigers scored 7 runs in that one. In this Thursday matinee affair, look for the pitching match-up to lead the way to a slugfest.
While Freddy Garcia has a solid 10-4 record this season, he’s certainly been fortunate to attain such an impressive mark. One look at his ERA and his BAA will tell you that. However, the market still sees him as a 10-4 pitcher and that helps keep totals like this one lower than they should be. Note that Garcia has struggled on the road this season. The White Sox right-hander has a 5-2 record on the road but he’s compiled a 5.73 ERA and a .308 BAA in his ten starts away from home this season. Though he has great career numbers against the Tigers, they have hit three homers against him in his two starts versus Detroit this season. Garcia also comes into this start having gone winless in his last three road starts and he’s given up 11 earned runs in just 13.1 innings in those three road outings.
Garcia will be opposed by Max Scherzer this afternoon. Though the young right-hander has been pitching better of late, he was certainly fortunate in his most recent outing. Scherzer allowed 9 hits in 6.1 innings of work but he escaped with allowing just one earned run in the outing! Though his ERA has been much lower in day games than in night games this season, note that Scherzer has actually been hit at a higher clip (.270 in day games). In other words, we shouldn’t put too much stock into his 2.63 ERA in day games this season. Scherzer has been quite hittable under the sun this season and he’s facing a surging White Sox team. The ChiSox are 9-5 to the over this season as a road dog of +100 to +125. The White Sox also were 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games before yesterday’s match-up stayed under the total. The Tigers are 6-2 to the over this season in Scherzer’s starts against divisional opponents. The White Sox have gone over the total in each of Garcia’s last three starts. Look for more of the same here. Play OVER the total in Detroit as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Baltimore vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:05 ET: Arrieta vs Haren – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
These teams have combined for 25 runs on 46 hits in the first two games of this series. We see no reason to expect things to slow down tonight. In fact, the wind is expected to be blowing out to right at a good clip this evening and, on a muggy night in Baltimore, that will certainly help to insure that the ball continues to carry well at Camden Yards. The Orioles have recorded just four unders in their last 11 games. The Angels have given up at least 6 runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Though Dan Haren gets the start here and is certainly a well-respected pitcher, he has not been at his best this season. The Angels right-hander is 7-10 on the season and he’s particularly struggled on the road this season. Haren is 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA and a .292 BAA in his road starts this season. He does have strong career numbers against Baltimore, particularly at Camden Yards, but those were compiled years ago when he use to pitch in the American League. Again, right now, Haren is simply not the consistently dominating hurler that he once was. Before allowing just two earned runs on five hits in a complete game loss at Texas last week, Haren had given up 14 earned runs on 31 hits in his last 22.1 innings of work. In his last four starts Haren has given up six homers.
The good news for Haren tonight is that he should get plenty of run support in this one. The Angels lineup will be teeing off against a struggling Jake Arrieta. The young right-hander is 3-3 with a 5.47 ERA on the season. His last eight starts have seen him averaged just five innings per start and we all saw how poor the Orioles bullpen was last night. In other words, another short start for Arrieta tonight likely spells doom for a Baltimore pen that ranks among the weakest in the majors. In his last three starts Arrieta has walked 13 while striking out just 5 batters. He’s given up 15 earned runs in his last 13.2 innings of work. The Orioles are 6-1-1 to the over in Arrieta’s last 8 starts. Note that Haren’s 23 starts this season have resulted in 16 overs and just 7 unders. Also, Haren’s four starts against AL East opponents this season have resulted in a 4-0 mark to the over. In road games this season, Haren’s starts have gone 8-2 to the over. Both of these pitchers have truly been “over machines” this season and Arrieta just isn’t quite ready for the “big time” just yet. He’s particularly struggled at home this season (7.97 ERA) and we look for more of the same tonight. Play OVER the total in Baltimore as a *10* Top Play selection.Comment
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Re: 8-5-10
DAVID MALINSKY
4* PHILADELPHIA/FLORIDA Under
Whereas the 0-3/7.20 of Roy Oswalt since the All Star break could be a sign of future struggles to some, we instead see opportunity. There is absolutely nothing wrong with his stuff (he went into the break off of back-to-back shutouts), and even in those three defeats it has been a 4:1 ratio of K’s to W’s. His own take on a sloppy outing in his first start as a Phillie was that he had a little too much adrenaline, and took time to settle into a flow, and tonight we expect to see the Oswalt that Philadelphia dealt for, a steady veteran that can have an impact in the pennant race, and one that has worked to a 2.97 on the road this season. But with questions about the offense behind him sans Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino, we will let the total be our path.
Yes, the Phillies have scored 13 runs in the first two games of this series. But a big part of Tuesday’s output came from Marlin defensive miscues. A misplayed fly ball by Cody Ross in CF had to be ruled a hit, which made unearned runs show as earned; Dan Uggla committed multiple errors, but was only charged with one, because of that “you can not assume a double play” scoring rule; and Hector Luna had two different balls go off of his glove at 3B that were ruled hits. Last night the seven runs came via a lone extra base hit, with the Marlin pitching staff giving up seven W’s. So let’s grade the Phillies as who they are, a team that does not bring a lot of sock from the bottom of the order, and until Jimmy Rollins finds his game (still mired at .243), not all that much at the top either.
Chris Volstad has worked to a 3.65 at home this season, with his only start from this mound since the All Star break a solid outing vs. Atlanta, and he is one of those idea “value” fits, a guy that does not generate market excitement, which helps to keep those 8’s in play, but brings more than enough for our purposes.Comment
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Re: 8-5-10
Rocco Vincintore Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, August 05, 2010
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LA Dodgers w/Billingsley -158 10:10 ESTComment
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Re: 8-5-10
808wiseguy
San Francisco MLComment
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