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Matchup: L.A. Angels at Baltimore
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) HAREN, D vs. (R) ARRIETA, J
Play: Baltimore (ML +160)
I've used the Orioles each of the last two nights, and have been rewarded with a pair of wins. The new skipper angle simply says that I should keep playing the Birds till they lose, and now it's with the house's money, which is always a very good thing! This is a tough hurdle as road favorites trying to avoid getting swept in a three-game set have been solid plays this season. Plus, Dan Haren owns a big edge on the mound over struggling rookie Jake Arrieta. But I'm 2-0 with Buck Showalter at the helm, and I'm playing this angle until it stops paying off. So the Orioles as big home dogs are the choice again this evening.
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Matchup: San Francisco at Atlanta
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LINCECUM T vs. (R) JURRJENS, J
Play: Atlanta (ML -101) SOLID GOLD PLAY
It's never a cinch to put the money on the line against Tim Lincecum. And the talented Giants ace is on a roll of late. Lincecum has won three in a row, and SF has won his last five starts. In fact, the Giants are 9-2 the last 11 times Lincecum has taken the mound. But the value here is clearly with the Braves. Atlanta continues to be amazing at home, and Jair Jurrjens has been spectacular at Turner, sporting a 3-0, 1.71 ledger. The idea of catching Atlanta at home with a strong starter and not having to lay anything is a must take for me, so the Braves are the call tonight.
When the Phillies send recently acquired Roy Oswalt to the mound against Chris Volstad and the Marlins in Florida tonight they will do so knowing Oswalt is 15-3 in his last 18 team starts during the month of August. On the flip side, Volstad is 0-4 in his career team starts at home against Philadelphia. with Volstad in off a phony 'inside-out' win in his last start (10 hits and walks in five innings of work in a 4-2 win at San Diego), look for the Fish to fall to 3-12 in Volstad's last 15 starts this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on Philadelphia.
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Angels on the "run line":
Dan Haren gets the call for the visitors; Haren's pitched well enough in his last two outings to get a victory, but his team hasn't given him any run support; I believe that changes tonight.
He pitched a complete game on Saturday vs. Texas, but was on the wrong end of a 2-1 final.
Although he's just 7-10 on the year, Haren has a very respectable 4.42 ERA.
Despite yesterday's loss, keep in mind that the Angels are on a longterm 14-6 run against Baltimore; also 23-18 (+1.5 units) vs. teams with losing records.
In the other dugout: Jake Arrieta heads to the hill for the home side; Arrieta last just 4 1/3 innings on Friday; he allowed three runs off six hits vs. the Royals.
He's 0-1 with a dismal 8.56 ERA over his last three starts.
Baltimore is just 5-14 its last 19 overall; 4-9 its last 13 in front of the home town crowd; 25-53 (-18 units) in "night games"; 25-48 (-14 units) against right-handed starters.
Bottom line: Buck Showalter was the kick in the pants the Orioles needed, as they've won back to back games, but keep in mind that it's been over seven years since Baltimore has swept the Angels in a series; it's not happening tonight.
Haren is clearly the dominant pitcher here; when coupled with the fact that the Angels are desperately trying to claw back to .500, and the rest of the above factors, I'm expecting a lop-sided blowout;
0-1 yesterday MINUS 20 dimes MINUS $200. overall, 85-109-3 minus 490
Thursday's Play ...
10 DIME seleation on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES over the Marlins in the finale of a three-game series at Landshark Stadium. As I publeish today’s plays at about 11:30 a.m. Eastern time, the Phillies are a -120 to -130 road favorite. Note that you must list both Philadelphia’s Roy Oswalt and Florida’s Chris Volstad as the starting pitcrers. If either does not start, this play is void.
Phillies
Roy Oswalt takes the mound in a Phillies uniform for the second time, hoping for much better results than he got in his debut on Friday when he yielded five runs (four earned) in six innings of an 8-1 loss at Washington. Oswalt is now 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts – by far his worst stretch of the season.
Of course Oswalt would never make excuses for his recent poor performances, but I will. His last 10 days in Houston had to have been mentally taxing as trade talks swirled around him, and then the Phillies mistakenly gave him the ball at Washington less than 36 hours after he got dealt from the only organization he had ever pitched for. So it wasn’t at all surprising that Oswalt wasn’t completely focused on Friday.
Tonight, after five full days to get acclimated to his new surroundings, I expect to see the old, dominating Oswalt – the one who prior to Friday had a 2.61 ERA in his first eight road starts. In fact, in seven of his nine outings on the highway this year, Oswalt has allowed eight earned runs in 47 2/3 innings, good for a 1.51 ERA.
Meanwhile, Marlins right-hander Chris Volstad is coming off two strong outings (five runs allowed in 11 innings, leading his team to victories over the Braves and Padres). However, Florida is still just 3-10 in Volstad’s last 13 starts overall, including 1-6 in his last seven South Beach performances. Also, the Marlins have lost five of Volstad’s last six starts against Philadelphia, including four straight home defeats.
The Phillies are on runs of 11-2 overall, 7-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1 in the third game of a series. And in winning the first two games of this series, Philadelphia has now taken 13 of the last 16 from the Fish
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