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Re: 8-7-10
If anyone sees Marco D Angleo (15-0 Streak) or Goodfella plays from PG, please post
Thanks In Advance
If anyone sees Marco D Angleo (15-0 Streak) or Goodfella plays from PG, please post
Thanks In Advance
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Re: 8-7-10
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 7* (Regular Play) OVER in NY Yankees vs Boston @ 4:10 ET: Sabathia vs Lackey – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Yesterday’s game was a disappointing push for over players. The total was a 9 and the game had 9 runs heading to the bottom of the 6th. Unfortunately not a single run crossed the plate in the final 3.5 innings and we were saddled with a frustrating top play push. We won’t hesitate to come right back with the over in a match-up that features a pair of teams that are 7-1 to the over this season when they are matched up with each other. The Red Sox are 11-6 to the over this season when they are on the road and the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Although this total is moving to a 9 in many spots, note that Boston is 24-16 to the over in divisional games this season. Additionally, the Yankees are 24-15 to the over in divisional games this season. The Yanks are also 30-21 to the over in home games this season and they are 11-5 to the over on Saturdays this season.
CC Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees and, though he certainly has some put together some impressive numbers this season, note that he’s really not pitched well over the last 3 or 4 weeks. The big southpaw has allowed 15 runs (11 earned) on 36 hits and 14 walks in 27 innings of work! As you can see that’s an average of nearly two base runners per inning and the fact that Sabathia has a low ERA during what has truly been a rough stretch for him is helping to give us line value with the over here. The Yanks southpaw will be opposed by John Lackey of the Red Sox. The big right-hander is 5-7 with a 4.40 ERA in his career against the Yankees and they’ve hit him at a .283 clip. Lackey has been on a bit of a roller-coaster of late as he’s allowed at least four runs (most have been earned) in five of his last nine starts. Also, other than a two-hitter at Seattle recently, note what he’s done in the other eight starts that comprise this nine game up and down stretch. In these eight outings, Lackey has given up 65 hits in 48.1 innings of work. As you can see, he’s been very hittable and we expect the Yankees to have no trouble connecting early and often against Lackey. Note that Lackey has just 1 win in his 6 road starts this season and he’s compiled a 6.75 ERA under the sun while getting rocked at a .322 clip in day games! Look for more of the same here as he faces a potent Yankees lineup here. Play OVER the total in the New York Yankees game as a *7* Regular Play selection.
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Toronto vs Tampa Bay @ 1:05 ET: Mills vs Shields – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Yesterday’s game was a low-scoring 2-1 pitchers duel. We love coming back with the over after a game like that when the other variables line up properly and we certainly feel that is the case here. James Shields gets the start for the Rays and he comes into this outing off of a great start against the Yankees. However, prior to that, things hadn’t exactly been going well for the Rays right-hander. His ERA had gone from 2.99 in late May to a 4.79 prior to the solid start against the Yanks. Shields had allowed 49 earned runs on 83 hits in his last 66 innings of work. As you can see, those are not the numbers you would expect from a projected “ace” like Shields. The bad news for him is that this start comes on the road where he’s struggled throughout his career. In other words, look for Shields so to resume the struggles that have been going on for the better part of two months. He’s 24-26 on the road in his career and has compiled a 4.69 ERA away from home in his career. Shields has allowed 8 homers in his 4 career starts at the Rogers Centre and has recorded just one win in Toronto in his career. The Blue Jays are the top home run hitting team in the league so look for more “long ball action” today.
As for the Jays pitching situation, it’s Brad Mills that gets the start. This is because Jesse Litsch is now out for the season. Though Mills impressed in his only start this season (about 10 days ago), the young southpaw is still very inexperienced. He made only two starts last season and this will be just his second start this season. Mills has compiled an ugly 7.36 ERA at the MLB level and we’re not going to put too much weight into just one start (though he did impress) against the Orioles on July 28th. The Rays are 24-17 to the over this season in divisional games. They are also 30-21 to the over this season when they are facing a team with a winning record. Additionally, the Rays are 3-1 to the over in Shields last 4 road starts. Tampa Bay is 13-8 to the over this season when they are on the road and the total is 9 or 9.5 runs. Though yesterday was the Blue Jays second straight under, they previously had recorded just two unders in their last nine games! They are a powerhouse hitting team at home and we look for them to get back on track against Shields. As for the Rays, they are 16-10-1 to the over in their last 27 road games and we look for them to resume their hot hitting against a rookie who ran into a dysfunctional Orioles team in his first start this season. Keep in mind, that was before the O’s made their managerial change and got hot. Now Mills must deal with a confident and talented Rays lineup. Play OVER the total in Toronto as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Baltimore vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET: Millwood vs Floyd – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!Comment
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Re: 8-7-10
Tony George | MLB Money Line Sat, 08/07/10 - 7:05 PM
double-dime bet 955 COL (-135) Bodog vs 956 PIT
Analysis:
Colorado -135
Cannot look any other way here other than the Rockies. The Rockies stink on the road, granted, but Pitt is 2-7 their last 9 games and were wiped last night by the hot hitting Rockies. The boys from Colorado are hitting over .300 as a team and have the better starter, hitters, defense, player depth, and bullpen. As a matter of fact the Pirates bullpen has an 8.71 ERA the last 3 games, and with a starter whose record is 1-9 on the year and going to a weak bullpen, against a hoit hitting team, I smell blowout all over this one.
Play 2 units on ColoradoComment
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Re: 8-7-10
Evan Altemus | MLB Money Line Sat, 08/07/10 - 7:05 PM
double-dime bet 958 PHI (-125) BetUS vs 957 NYM
Analysis: Both New York and Johan Santana have not played well lately. Santana hasn’t pitched as well in his last two starts compared to his shutdown stuff earlier in July. He has gone through rough stretches like this before and it doesn’t help that the Mets are slumping anyway. New York has gone 3-6 in their last 9 games, and they are 1-3 in their current road trip. The Mets bullpen has also posted a 6.53 ERA in their last 10 games, so even if Santana pitches a great game, the Mets bullpen could blow the game. In addition, Philadelphia’s best players in today’s line-up have had success against Santana. The Phillies are still dealing with injuries to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Shane Victorino, but that doesn’t matter because Philadelphia his hitting really well as a team without them. They have also won their last 5 games and 8 out of their last 10 games. They are hitting .306 as a team in their last 10 games while New York has only averaged .238. Essentially Philadelphia has the edge in momentum, hitting, starting pitching, and bullpen. Look for the Phillies to get the home win against the slumping Mets.
4 UNIT SELECTIONComment
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Re: 8-7-10
spartan | MLB Money Line Sat, 08/07/10 - 7:05 PM
triple-dime bet 971 MIN (-135) Sportbet vs 972 CLE
Analysis: Hit the big Triple last night and usually do not have them back to back but will make an exception here as I really am liking our chances here with the Twins and Pavano.
Despite a rough outing last time out nobody can deny that Carl Pavano has reestablished himself this season thus far as a top flight major league pitcher, fact is some guys just are not a good fit the the New York Yankee scene and I suspect Carl fit that profile. Tonight he takes the hill against his former team in Cleveland and history is most certainly on his side here. His opponent tonight Fausto Carmona has had some serious issues when dealing againt the Twins. How bad? Try 0-5 with a lofty 10.41 era his last half dozen starts against them.
Ron Gardenhire as usual had his club right there in the thick of things and this club typically performs very strongly coming down the stretch. Despite showing some character and playing tough lately I strongly feel this a tough match up for Cleveland. The Twins are in hot pursuit of the White Sox and I'm thinking they keep on their tails tonight. Triple Star on Minnesota guys!Comment
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Re: 8-7-10
Jeff Benton
have been gambling off and on for the past 20 years. have used different services, blah blah blah...i have never seen a worse 8 to 10 week stretch that i'm currently witnessing. i have used benton off and on for the past six years..mostly on a positive note. however, since super bowl 2009, until yesterday bettors (if they follow his money management system) would be down close to $14,000. anyone else out there who can name a worse handicapper then jeff benton? anyway, luckily i've been taking his picks and betting the opposite and doing great...until he turns it around, i would suggest doing the same.
Saturday's Plays ...
20 DIME selection on the OAKLAND A’S in the middle game of a weekend series at the Oakland Coliseum. As I pubaish today’s plays, this game is right around a pick-em both here in Vegas and offshore. Note that both pitceing probables – Oakland’s Gio Gonzalez and Texas’ Rich Harden – must start. If either does not pitch, this play is VOID!
10 DIME selection on the NEW YORK YANKEES on the run line (-1½ runs) over the Red Sox as this four-game series contirues at Yankee Stadium. Note that with all run-line wagers, both scheduled starters – New York’s CC Sabathia and Boston’s John Lackey – must start. If either does not pitch, this play is VOID!
A’s
Gio Gonzalez is one of the better pitchers in the American League that you DON’T know about. Although his record is just 9-7, he’s posted a 3.69 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP with a 120 strikeouts (vs. just 59 walks) in 134 innings.
Gonzalez has taken advantage of the cavernous Oakland Coliseum, where he’s 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP (he’s allowed just four home runs in 63 1/3 innings at home). And more specifically, his stuff is very difficult to figure out in day games, as evidenced by the fact that he’s 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA under the sun, allowing just 33 hits (two home runs) and 12 walks in 48 2/3 innings. In those 48 2/3 innings, opponents are batting just .189 against the southpaw. Throw in a no-decision, and the A’s are 6-1 when Gonzalez pitches in day games.
That’s not a fluke, folks. That’s a solid trend. And I’ll tell you why it’s even more solid today against the Rangers. First off, Texas is not hitting left-handed pitching right now, as it entered this series batting just .245 vs. southepaws over the previous 10 games. Additionally, the Rangers today reach Game #8 of a nine-game West Coast road trip (L.A. to Seattle to Oakland). And with this being a short turnaround after a late game last night, I think we can safely assume that Texas manager Ron Washington will rest some of his big boppers.
After all, Texas has three HUGE series coming up against the Yankees (two games at home), Red Sox (three at home) and Rays (three on the road), at least one of whom the Rangers are likely to see come the playoffs.
Finally, while I’ve sung the praises of Oakland’s starting pitcher tonight, allow me a few words about Rangers right-hander (and ex-A’s hurler) Rich Harden. He was VERY impressive a week ago tonight at the Angels, returning after a seven-week stint on the DL and allowing one run in seven innings, leading Texas to a 2-1 win. But even with that effort Harden has a 5.25 ERA overall and a 6.12 ERA on the road. And while Gonzalez has given up just four home runs in 63 1/3 innings at home, Harden has been taken deep 10 times in 42 2/3 innings on the road.
Bottom line: The A’s have the better starting pitcher going in this one; they’ve played very well at home all season (32-23); and not only is Gonzalez tremerdous in day games, his entire team is, as Oakland has the best daytime winning percentage in baseball at 25-11 (vs. 29-42 night). Texas, meanwhile, is 13-15 in day games (50-30 at night).
Yankees (-1½ runs)
Yes, CC Sabathia is coming off consecutive losses on the road to the Indians and Rays. But it wasn’t exactly the hefty lefty’s fault. He allowed just five earned runs total in the two starts, going seven innings at Cleveland and 6 2/3 at Tampa Bay. Problem is the Yankees scored a grand total of one run in those contests.
Prior to those two defeats, Sabathia had been on a 9-0, 10-game tear (New York also prevailed in the one no-decision) that stretched to the beginning of June. And even if you include the two recent losses, since June 1, Sabathia has delivered 12 consecutive quality starts while going 9-2 with a 2.39 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings. And he’s been ridiculously good at home this year, going 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts.
Opposing batters have a .218 batting average against Sabathia at Yankee Stadium, and with the makeshift lineup Boston manager Terry Francona is being forced to field these days, I fully expect that opponents batting average to actually go down today. See, while Sabathia has struggled in three starts against the Red Sox this year (4.76 ERA), he also had to face Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis – Boston’s two best hitters who are both on the shelf (Youkilis for the season).
As for Red Sox right-hander John Lackey, I just do not trust him, as he’s easily been one of the five most inconsistent pitchers in all of baseball. For instance, he’s bookended a solid three-start stretch (3-0, 1.61 ERA) with two horrific losses to the Blue Jays and Indians (13 runs allowed in 10 innings). And with this being a day game in the Bronx, it must be noted that Lackey has a 6.75 ERA in six day games, five of which Boston has lost.
Finally, even though the Red Sox rolled to the 6-3 win last night, New York has been owning this rivalry, winning 14 of the last 19 meetings overall, including eight of 10 at Yankee Stadium. Also, 18 of the last 19 meetings have been decided by multiple runs and 56 of New York’s 67 wins have been by more than one run, including 13 of 15 wins behind Sabathia.Comment
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Re: 8-7-10
FantasySportsGametime for 8/7
Canadian Football
1000* Play Winnipeg (+3) over Hamilton (EAST DIVISION GOY)
Game starts at 7:00 PM EST
Saturday Baseball
100* Play NY Yankees (-185) over Boston
Game starts at 4:10 PM EST
50* Play Chicago White Sox (-160) over Baltimore
Game starts at 7:00 PM EST
50* Play Florida (-180) over St. Louis
Game starts at 7:00 PM ESTComment
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Re: 8-7-10
gill alexander | MLB Money Line Sat, 08/07/10 - 7:05 PM
double-dime bet ml 958 PHI (-120) Sportbet vs 957 NYM Analysis: Santana has given up a combined 10 runs in the 1st innings of the last 4 ballgames. He has a 7.81ERA over his last 2 outings. On the season, whle he has a 3.51FIP, he has a startling 4.55xFIP. That, and a miniscule 34.2% ground ball rate (5th lowest in MLB), his worst since 2003, is a portent of very bad things to ome at the offensive fireworks show that is Citizens Bank Park. Back in May, he famously got shelled for 10ER on 8H in just 3.2IP v Phi. Though that Phillies club had Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the Philly offense is raking without their two big bats, averaging 6.0 R/G over its last 6 while scoring at least 5 runs in each of them. Hamels has a 2.07ERA over his last 5 starts. He has a career 2.70ERA v NYM at home. His xFIP is 3.66 (19th best in MLB). Philly has won 5 in a row and 13 of 15 overall. Even more impressively, they've now won 12 in a row at Citizens Bank. The Mets have dropped 12 of 15 on the road. Am I unabashed in riding these Phillies right now? Absolutely. Especially when the numbers back it up.
gill alexander | MLB Money Line Sat, 08/07/10 - 7:05 PM Ð
dime bet ml 955 COL (-130) Sportbet vs 956 PIT Analysis: Dorky Winner Play for August 7, 2010Comment
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Re: 8-7-10
SuperSPortsGroup MLB 8/7
Cincinnati v. Chicago 1:05pm
PICK: Reds ML -105 Game Best bet of the day #1
Tampa Bay v. Toronto 1:07pm
PICK: UNDER 8. Game +110
Texas v. Oakland 4:10pm
PICK: Rangers ML +105 Game Best bet of the day #2
PICK: OVER 8 Game ev
Chicago v. Baltimore 7:05pm
PICK: Orioles ML +150 Game Game of the week
PICK: OVER 9 Game ev
Colorado v. Pittsburgh 7:05pm
PICK: Rockies RL (-1.5) +120 Game
LAA v. Detroit 7:05pm
PICK: Angels ML +120 GameComment
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Re: 8-7-10
WUNDERDOG
Game: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Toronto +1.5 runs -120 (runline)
The best team in baseball this season when facing a righthand pitcher on the runline has been the Toronto Blue Jays. James Shields has not had a good year for Tampa Bay, struggling to a 4.54 ERA. In addition, when he faces a team on the road with a winning record the Rays have been in trouble as they are just 10-25 in his last 35 starts in this situation. The numbers decline further as the Rays are 1-10 in Shield's last 11 starts after the Rays scored two or less in their last game. The Jays have really played well in the division taking nine of their last ten and are also 14-3 in their last 17 facing a pitcher with a WHIP pf 1.30 or greater.
I'll go with Toronto here on the runline.Comment
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Re: 8-7-10
WUNDERDOG (HORSES)
SARATOGA Race #1 at 1:00 PM Eastern
Top pick: #8 (BROTHER BIRD) - He broke his maiden at Belmont going a mile July 3rd and and he'll be trying winners and cutting-back in distance for this attempt. Has a tracking style and a nice outside post at this 7 furlong trip to use it from. The top pick he's one of a pair entered by the Pletcher barn and they'll race as separate interests.
2nd pick: #6 (Pistols at Dawn) - Very impressive debut win at Churchill July 2nd and this colt looks like he could develop into something special. Working extremely fast since his win and I almost made him the top selection. View him as an equal of the top pick.
3rd pick: #7 (Monsignor ) - He's undergone a trainer switch to Todd Pletcher since his maide win in late June and this lightly raced son of "Forest Danger" is working fast locally for his firat facing winners. Don't just dismiss.
4th pick: #4 (Delong Road) - He won at odds of 18-1 at Delaware when he broke his maiden there by 10 lengths July 12th. Working nicely since and he's in the barn of Wayne Lukas. Has a shot but this allowance drew like a small stakes race.Comment
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