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As a road dog of +175 to +200 the last three years, the Tigers are 5-1 (83%) to the over. Detroit was held to just two runs yesterday but they are still a respectable 6-4 to the over in their last ten games. The Yankees did get six runs on nine hits yesterday and the Tigers have now given up an average of nearly 10 hits per game over their last dozen games. Don’t look for those numbers to improve with Jeremy Bonderman taking the mound for the Tigers this evening. The Detroit right-hander is 3-8 in his career against the Yankees and has compiled a 5.29 ERA in those outings. Note that Bonderman has struggled against left-handed hitters throughout his career and the Yankees are loaded with switch-hitters plus have a few big left-handed bats and that makes this a match-up nightmare for Bonderman even if Alex Rodriguez sits outs again tonight. Bonderman is 2-4 on the road this season and he’s compiled a 6.45 ERA in his nine starts away from home. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in seven of his last nine starts. The only good news for Tigers fans today is that they should enjoy much more success at the plate against Dustin Moseley than they did against C.C. Sabathia last night.
Moseley of the Yankees is certainly fading fast after his first start with the Yankees was a success. In his last three starts Moseley has allowed 11 earned runs on 23 hits in 18 innings of work. Four of the hits have been homers and note that Moseley has a 4.85 ERA against the Tigers in his career. He’s mostly been used as a reliever in his career. When used as a starter in 2008 with the Angels, Moseley compiled a 6.79 ERA and was hammered at a .332 clip. Then, last season Moseley only pitched in three games and he was rocked at a .323 clip. In his career he’s been hit at a .304 clip and we’re going to take advantage of another opportunity where, in our opinion, a pitcher that is better slated to be a reliever is once again being used as a starter. Look for him to get rocked as his post All-Star break struggles (5.94 ERA in his career) continue here. The Yankees are 21-10 to the over when the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs in a home game this season. This will be Moseley’s fifth start this season. The last one, even though he struggled, ended up being the first under that has resulted in any of his starts this season. Once again we look for him to struggle here but, this time, the “over trend” resumes. As for Bonderman of the Tigers, note that Detroit is 7-1 to the over in his last 8 starts! Play OVER the total in the New York Yankees game as a *10* Top Play selection
This game is all about momentum. Thome hit a 2-run shot to win the game last night and extended Minnesota's win streak to five straight, resulting in a 3-game slide for Chicago. These teams play tight games when they face each other, but legs have to feel a little bit fresher on the Twins side. Take Minnesota.
Tonight's two starters appear vulnerable to getting hit. Matt Cain, who is on a nice run, sports a lofty 7.20 ERA in 4 starts vs the Phillies. The Phillies' lineup is batting a healthy .300 this month vs righties and should jump on Cain, who is 6-1 O/U vs the NLE. On the other hand, Joe Blanton has not had an easy time with SF sporting a 5.08 ERA vs them. Blanton, who usually is the beneficiary of good run support, is 19-6-2 O/U in his last 27 overall and 7-0-1 O/U in his last 8 home starts. The SF lineup is patient and can jump on Blanton early. SF is 4-1 O/U vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 ERA. And the Phillies' bullpen, which sports a bloated 5.88 ERA this month, most assuredly will make an appearance. "Over" the call.
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