8-19-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

Sac Lawson | MLB Money Line Thu, 08/19/10 - 8:05 PM

dime bet 959 NYM (-110) Bodog vs 960 HOU
Analysis: This total tells us an awful lot. It has absolutely shot up since it's opener last evening. On the one hand that's expected, based on the fact that these two played nearly one and a half games last night and the bullpens should be fatigued, but on the other hand, if Bud Norris was going to pitch well today, the original line of 8 would have been justifiable....

Bud Norris is a guy that simply does not go too deep into games. He has control issues on occasion, and rarely makes it more than 5-7 innings. The Houston bullpen, as taxed as they were last night, simply isn't talented enough or deep enough to be able to sustain decent performances for 8 straight innings. They covered 7 innings of work last night, asking them to bounce back and pick up Bud Norris is a tall task for a bullpen that certainly isn't the best in the league.

On the other side, The Mets send Pat Misch to the mound. It is what it is with Misch. He's got good stuff, and he's stolen himself a starting spot on the Mets rotation. He was the victim of some tough luck his first time out with errors being an issue behind him. Tonight I expect him to continue the trend that his teammates set out in this series of keeping the game low scoring and leaving it up to the much more talented Mets pen.

Key to this one... Mets pen is deep enough to sustain after an extra innings game, the Astros' simply isn't.
1.5 unit play.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

gill alexander | MLB Money Line Thu, 08/19/10 - 1:05 PM

double-dime bet 965 DET (+225) Sportbet vs 966 NYY
Analysis: Porcello is coming off of 2 consecutive quality starts in which he poˆsted a collective 2.77ERA. He has a 4.55FIP and 4.74xFIP, accumulated primarily in a subpar first half of the season. However, Porcello has a .333BABIP, letting us know there are likely more gems to come. On May 12th, both Porcello and Hughes threw 7 scoreless innings v their opponent today. If nothing else, that lets us know that there's no possible way Porcello should be this kind of dog today. Hughes has 3 quality outings in his last 4 starts. He has a 3.94FIP and 4.24xFIP. Two nights ago, we successfully faded Jeff Weaver at Fenway, and last night, we went against Matt Cain at Citizens Bank Park to notch another win, both Dorky Winners based primarily on the notion that starters like Weaver and Cain, lauded by many, are in big trouble w their low ground ball percentages in venues like those that are either small or homer-friendly. Hughes at Yankee Stadium provides us with a third straight similar scenario. He has an anemic 35.1% ground ball rate (7th worst in MLB), even worse than that of Weaver (10th worst) and Cain (8th worst) and the new Yankee Stadium plays much like the aforementioned homer-friendly parks. By the way, my theory as it applies to Hughes at home is backed up by his 4.79ERA at home v his 2.81ERA on the road, a virtual 2 run difference that is the key to our play today. Well, that and one other big thing. Porcello's dad used to take him to Yankee Stadium as a kid. Today, is the fulfillment of a lifelong dream to pitch there. Some might say that this would make a pitcher in this scenario extra nervous. To some degree, you wouldn't be human if you weren't a little bit so. But I believe Porcello shines v NYY today, rising to the occasion for a solid win. This is beaucoup value on the Tigers and despite our loss on them yesterday, remember we did hit on them as a big dog on Monday. Well this dog price makes that one look like chump change, and quite frankly, the only justification for it is that the public's infatuation w NYY is already built in to this line. Let's exploit that with confidence.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

Mr. East

Florida marlins @ pittsburgh pirates
956 pittsburgh pirates -1.5 +190

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

JAMES JONES
Odds Worth Betting
Here is your pick for Thursday, August 19, 2010

* MLB Premium Pick *

New York Yankees -1.5 -130 1:05PM EST.

Don't forget College Football kicks off in 14 days. As soon as
college football and the NFL regular season kicks off you'll start
to receive those selections.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

teddy covers

big ticket-oak

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

MTI

4* Houston
4* Cleveland

[golden contender]

Re: 8-19-10- Thursday MLB play- GC

Thursday NL Game of the Month with 98% Power system wins by 3 runs per game + 11-1 AL. Totals system + NFLX Play, lone Wednesday play cashes out.


On Thursday the Free MLB play is on the Boston Redsox. Game 970 at 7:10 eastern. Boston qualifies in a solid 16-4 system tonight. Thus far they have taken all 9 games vs LA. The Angels are averaging just over 2 rpg the past week, while Boston is scoring over 6 rpg in that span. LA is 4-9 on Thursday and Boston is 8-2 at home when the total is 10 or more. The Angels have struggled vs winning teams at 5-14 in the 2nd half. J. Beckett for Boston is 3-1 vs AL West teams while, E.Santana has a poor 6.88 era in his last 3 starts. Boston makes it 10 straight tonight vs the Angels tonight. On Thursday we have the NL Game of the Month backed with a cuttiing edge 98% system that wins by 3 runs per game. I also have a big AL. Totals system that has cashed 11 of 12 times and an NFLX Play. Wednesday lone play cashed as we continue to roll. For the free play take the Boston Redsox. BOL GC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

ROCKETMAN

5 UNIT LA Dodgers -140 (DeLaRosa/Lilly)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

ATS LOCK CLUB

FOOTBALL
3 units Atlanta Falcons -2.5

BASEBALL
4 units Cincinnati Reds -125
4 units Oakland A's -120

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

DALLAS DAVE SPORTS

Boston Red Sox ML
Minnesota Twins ML
LA Dodgers ML

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

Tony George | NFL Total Thu, 08/19/10 - 7:30 PM

dime bet 401 IND / 402 BUF Under 34.0 BetUS
Analysis:




Under 34 Colts and Bills

Both teams were lit up defensively in their first game and both teams, especially the Colts has offensive concerns with injuries that will keep their highly skilled stars out of the lineup and I doubt Peyton Manning sees more than 15 snaps tonight. Stress in BOTH camps all week has been defense, and my sources very close to Buffalo say with extra prep, they have worked very hard on defense to all players and this one should be low scoring. I like a 14-10 type ballgame here, very vanilla on offense and close to the vest on defense. That is the game plan for both teams tonight, if they execute that it should be an easy cover here.
Play 1 Unit on the UNDER.





Tony George | MLB Total Thu, 08/19/10 - 10:05 PM

dime bet 975 TAM / 976 OAK Under 7 BetUS
Analysis:


Under 7 Oakland / Tampa

Trevor Cahill is underrated as a great pitcher and his ERA is off the charts at 0.38 his last 3 games, and his WHIP is 0.82 which is just unreal. The guy can pitch his ass off and should give Tampa all they want. He is 5-0 on Unders in his last 5 starts. Conversely Tampa has Sonnacstine on the hill with a respectable 4.10 ERA against a team that has issues at the plate scoring right now batting just .203 against right handers their last 10 games. These 2 teams played a 2 games series in May which Oakland swept and both games went under the total. 3-2 type ballgame here, I love the under.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER. Play a half unit on LA Dodgers -140. best of Luck I appreciate your business, Tony

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

GOODFELLA

MLB ML - Thursday, Aug 19 2010 2:20PM
ML 953 SDP (-165) Sportbet vs 954 CHC single-dime bet

Analysis: Latos and Zambrano Must Start

(1*) Single Star Subscriber Play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-10

FantasySportsGametime


Thursday Baseball



100* Play Atlanta (-200) over Washington
Game starts at 1:10 PM EST



Atlanta has won 7 of the last 8 games and they have also won 41 of the last 55 home games as a favorite of -110 or higher. Derek Lowe has won 16 of the last 18 home games as a favorite of -200 to -225 and he is 8-4 in home games this season with an ERA of 3.69.



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------





50* Play NY Yankees (-240) over Detroit

Game starts at 1:10 PM EST



New York pitcher, Phil Hughes has won 9 consecutive home games when the total posted in between 9 and 9.5 runs and he has also won 14 of the last 16 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher. Phil Hughes has won 5 consecutive games vs. AL Central Division Opponents and he is 8-3 in home games this season.



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------





50* Play Philadelphia (-170) over San Francisco

Game starts at 7:00 PM EST



Philadelphia has won 6 of the last 7 games and they have also won 28 of the last 39 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Philadelphia has won 67 of the last 103 games vs. NL West Division Opponents and they have also won 39 of the last 55 home games as a favorite of -150 to -175.

[spook]

Re: 8-19-10

Insider Angles

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills 7:30pm ET
It is no big secret that the Indianapolis Colts are one of the worst preseason teams in the entire NFL, but this may be their best chance to get a win this preseason as the Buffalo Bills were atrocious in their opener and do mot merit being favored by more than a field goal here.

The Bills gave up the most points in Week 1 of this exhibition season, as they wee annihilated 42-17 by the Washington Redskins, and to add insult to injury so to speak, they lost running backs Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch both to injury. This leaves them very thin at the position with the talented but raw rookie C.J. Spiller now topping the depth chart, and the lack of a running game won’t make things easier for Buffalo’s mediocre at best quarterbacks.

Now the Colts obviously do not care about preseason, as they were 10-20 under Tony Dungy and are now 1-4 under Jim Caldwell, but remember also that Buffalo coach Chan Gailey’s previous NFL coaching experience was with a Dallas Cowboys team that also does not take preseason seriously, so it could simply be that the Bills’ dismal performance was due to Gailey being more interested in seeing what he had on his roster than with being competitive.

As bad as the Colts are at this time of year, they do fall into a fantastic preseason Week 2 system that says to take any Week 2 underdog that lost in Week 1, as this has gone 48-15-2, 76.2 percent against the spread since the 2000 season! Even the Colts have gone 3-2-1 ATS in this situation, and their only preseason win last year did come in Week 2.

Besides that, preseason underdogs getting +3.5 points or more are 35-25, 58.3 percent against the spread and this is one of the few cases where the Indianapolis reserves are not overmatched by the reserves of their opponents.

With the all-important hook on the three here, take the points with the Colts.

NFL Pick: Colts +3.

[spook]

Re: 8-19-10

GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - August 19, 2010


Date: 8.19.10 at 7:05PM

Game: Florida Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Current Line: Florida (-110)

Over/Under: 9

Play On: Pittsburgh (-110)

Inside the Board Room:
The Marlins will give the ball to starter Alejandro Sanabia in this one. Righthander Sanabia is 1-0 this season with a 4.80 ERA. Starting this game for the Pirates will be Paul Maholm. The lefthander has a 4.86 ERA to go along with a 7-11 record this season. Hanley Ramirez' sacrifice fly in the eighth inning lifted the Marlins to a 3-2 win over the Pirates on Wednesday, as -170 favorites. That game's five runs went UNDER the posted over/under (7). Josh Johnson scattered seven hits and two runs over eight innings with six strikeouts for the win. Leo Nunez whiffed two batters in a scoreless ninth for his 27th save.
Take the underdog Pirates