8-22-10

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Re: 8-22-10

TheSportsCapper

Play Texas (-160) over Baltimore (MLB FREE PLAY)

Play Detroit (-190) over Cleveland (MLB FREE PLAY)

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Re: 8-22-10

jeff benton sunday

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1-1 yesterdy PLUS 15 dims. PLUS $150..overall, 94-117-3 minus 465 dimes.

Saturday's Plays ...

25 DIME selection on the Reds-Dodgers game UNDER THE TOTAL as these teams wrap up a weekend series at Dodger Stadium. As I pualish this play, the total in this contest is a solid 7 across the board. When playing basebeall totals, pitchers are automatically listed, so both Cincy’s Bronson Arroyo and L.A.’s Clayton Kershaw must start or this play is VOID!





10 DIME selection on the OAKLAND A’S over the Rays as these teams concrude a four-game series at the Oakland Coliseum. A’s are a +120 home underdog in this game, and you must list Dallas Braden as the A’s starting pitcher. If Braden doesn’t start, this play is VOID!








Reds-Dodgers UNDER the total





First of all, don’t be fooled by the Dodgers’ eight-run outburst last night – it was very much a fluke. Prior to last night, L.A. had tallied three runs or fewer in 22 of its previous last 29 games, incauding seven of the previous eight. Over their last 30 games, the Dodgers have scored one run or been shutout 10 times.





Today, that putrid offense runs up against Bronson Arroyo, who has been consisetently solid for Cincinnati this season, going 13-7 with a 3.87 ERA overall, 8-3 with a 3.44 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last three outings. The veteran right-hander allowed two earned runs or fewer while pitching at least six innings in six of his last nine contests, and Arroyo’s last two outings against the Dodgers were gems (combined three runs and 11 hits in 14 1/3 innings).





Also, Arroyo has been an “under” machine for the Reds, as the under is 31-15-5 in his last 51 starts overall, 4-0 in his last four road starts, 7-1 in his last eight against the N.L. West and 11-2-2 in his last 15 when pitching the third game of a series. Additionally, the under is 5-1-1 in Arroyo’s last six starts against the Dodgers.





L.A. counters Arroyo with their best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw (11-7, 3.03 ERA), who is coming off a 6-0 victory over the Rockies (seven shutout innings). He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 18 of his 25 starts this season, including five of his last six. More imporrantly, Kershaw has completely baffled the Reds twice in his career, giving up a total of three runs, 11 hits and three walks with 18 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings – and those two games were in Cincinnati, which is very much a hitter’s park. Today, Kershaw gets the Reds at home, where he has a 3.07 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this year. And the fact it’s a day game is also huge, as the 22-year-old southpaw is 5-1 with a 1.79 ERA in nine starts under the sun, seven of which have gone under the total.





Finally, L.A. had stayed low in each of the first four games of its current homestand prior to Saturday, and it is also on “under” streaks of 18-8-2 against right-handed starters overall and 8-2 in its last nine home games versus righty starters. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is on “under” stretches of 30-13-8 on Sunday and 38-16-5 in the third game of a series.





This has 3-2 final written all over it!








A’s





You give me the Oakland A’s as a home underdog in a day game, and I’m all over it. Why do I bring up “day game”? Because no team in baseball has been better when playing under God’s flashlight than the A’s. They’re an MLB-best 29-12 in day games, which equates to a .707 winning percentage. At night, Oakland is just 32-49.





Dallas Braden has done his part in daytime action, too, going 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA in seven starts, including his perfect game against these Rays back on May 9 (a 4-0 victory). Braden struggled for several weeks after that perfecto, but the lefty has been on his game lately. He’s given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, and Oakland is 5-1 in his last six outings. That includes a 5-1 win in Seattle on Aug. 11 and a 6-2 home win over Toronto on Tuesday, and in those two contests Braden surrendered a combined two earned runs, seven hits and four walks in 16 innings.





One more point about Braden: Not only was he perfect against Tampa Bay in May, but in five of his last six starts against the Rays he’s given up just seven runs in 32 2/3 innings (1.93 ERA).





Meanwhile, Rays starter Matt Garza is just 1-2 in his last three starts despite pitching very well (1.31 ERA); he’s got a 4.05 ERA in 12 starts on the road (Tampa is 5-7); and he’s 1-2 in three career starts against Oakland (all last season), allowing nine runs in 18 2/3 innings (4.34 ERA).





Throw in the fact the A’s have won four of the past five meetings with the Rays (all at home) – going back several years Tampa has lost 38 of 52 at the Coliseum – and this one is a no-brainer, especially at this price.

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Re: 8-22-10

Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Minnesota vs Los Angeles-AL @ 8:05 ET: Baker vs Weaver – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!


The Twins have scored 27 runs in Scott Baker’s last five starts and they are likely to need similar offensive production today to hang around in this game. That’s because Baker is 0-5 with a 5.82 ERA in his eight career starts against the Angels. Also, the Twins right-hander has allowed four earned runs or more in 8 of his last 13 starts. That includes his two most recent outings where he’s allowed 9 runs (8 earned) on 15 hits (including 3 homers) in 10.2 innings of work. Other than a great start early in August, Baker has mostly struggled over the last 3 months. His June ERA was 6.07 and he compiled a 5.10 ERA in July. As for August, he had that solid first start but then has been roughed up in his last two outings. Facing the Angels is unlikely to help Baker get back on track. Los Angeles comes into this game having pounded out 16 hits yesterday and they’ve now averaged nearly 10 hits per game in their last 7 games. Their sticks are heating up again and the Angels are 11-6 to the over in Sunday games this season. The Twins are 8-5 to the over when they are at home and are priced between -100 and -125. Additionally, Minnesota has gone over the total in five straight games and the Twins have averaged 10 hits per game in their last six games.

Minnesota’s bullpen has been hurt by the injury to Ron Mahay but the Angels have a pitching concern of their own as well as Jered Weaver gets this start. The Los Angeles right-hander got roughed up at Boston in his last start as he allowed six earned runs in just five innings of work. Keep in mind, he’s dominated at home this season but the road has been a different story. Weaver is 5-2 at home with a 1.65 ERA but he’s 6-6 on the road with a 4.50 ERA this season. Also, his ERA in night games is a full 1.5 runs higher than what he’s produced in day games this season. Neither of these stats is a fluke either. In his career, Weaver’s ERA is 2.95 at home and 4.24 on the road. Also, in day games his career numbers show a 2.66 ERA while he shows a 3.96 ERA in night games. In his last 11 starts, the Angels are 10-0-1 to the under. However, keep in mind, there hasn’t been a single over recorded in a home game start for him this season while, conversely, there have only been 5 unders recorded in his 14 road starts! This game is not at pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium rather, it’s at Target Field where each of the first two games in this series have gone over the total and where the Twins are hitting .290 on the season. As for the Angels, their .261 batting average on the road ranks 7th out of all 30 MLB teams. Also, Baker’s last 14 starts for the Twins have resulted in just 4 unders! Look for another Twins game to go over the total for a 6th straight time as this match-up features two hurlers off of rough outings and it features two lineups that are among the tops in the league in terms of the Twins batting average at home and the Angels batting average on the road! Play OVER the total in Minnesota as an *8* Regular Play selection.



Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (Top Play) OVER in Los Angeles-NL vs Cincinnati @ 4:10 ET: Kershaw vs Arroyo – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!


The Dodgers and Reds flew over the total last night as 13 runs were scored. That snapped a stretch for Los Angeles where they had stayed under in four straight games and gone 7-2-1 to the under in their last ten games. On a warm afternoon in Los Angeles, we expect another strong game for these two lineups today. The Dodgers pounded out four homers among their 12 hits last night. The Reds struck for five runs on nine hits and Cincinnati is averaging 11.4 hits per game over their last five games. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the Reds are 5-3 to the over this season and 28-19 to the over the last three seasons. Bronson Arroyo gets the start for Cincinnati today and the Reds have seen their games stay under the total with great regularity when he’s been taking to the mound. However, a start in Los Angeles could quickly change things. Arroyo is winless with a 5.82 ERA in his four career starts at Dodger Stadium. Overall, his teammates have lost eight of his ten career starts against Los Angeles. Arroyo, though he’s been pitching well recently, has match-up issues here as he’s facing a Dodgers lineup that will be loaded with hitters who have plenty of experience (and success) against him. Look for his struggles at Dodger Stadium to continue but his teammates should help him at the plate! That’s because the Reds are one of the top hitting teams in the league and we expect them to give Clayton Kershaw some trouble this afternoon.

The southpaw the Dodgers are sending to the mound this afternoon has been an “over machine” in Los Angeles games lately. Yes, his most recent start saw the game stay under the total as he dominated a Rockies team that he’s dominated in many recent meetings. However, prior to that the Dodgers were on a 9-4 run to the over in Kershaw’s starts. Much of that had to do with the fact that the left-hander has often been benefiting from great run support (as he should again today with Arroyo’s long-term struggles in LA resuming). Note that the Dodgers have averaged nearly 5 runs per game in Kershaw’s last 14 starts. Keep in mind, with a total of just 7 on this game, we need just 3 runs from each team to guarantee us of no worse than a push as a 3-3 game means nothing less than a 4-3 final. We look for both teams to do some damage at the plate on this warm afternoon in Los Angeles. Kershaw had allowed 10 earned runs in 21.2 innings spanning his last three starts before he shut down the Rockies in LA in his most recent start. Overall, prior to that outing, Kershaw had given up 38 hits in his last 38 innings of work. Certainly that is solid but it’s also far from being dominant and we like our chances with the league’s top ranked offense taking their cuts against the southpaw. Kershaw will face mostly right-handed sticks in the Reds lineup and he’s been hit at a clip that is 56 points higher against righties in comparison with lefties. Look for Cincy to load up on the right-hand side of the plate for this one as they add to a strong stretch at the plate that has seen them average 5.6 runs per game since early August. Play OVER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers game as a *10* Top Play selection.

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Re: 8-22-10

JR ODonnell | NFL Side Sun, 08/22/10 - 8:00 PM

double-dime bet 430 SFX -2.5 (-110) Sportbet vs 429 MIN
Analysis:
SAN FRAN NINERS - 2.5 GAME AT 8PM 71% NFLX RUN CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT

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Re: 8-22-10

Lance's Lock


Pick: KC +105

Overall: 1005-898-35

Current streak: 1.

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Re: 8-22-10

DEANO


HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-August 22nd

Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************

[915] Colorado |5*|+120|B+0|Network N/A|4:10 pm EST

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Re: 8-22-10

KIKI SPORTS

Sunday August 22nd

2 units San Fran -2.5
1 unit NY Mets -162
1 unit Milwaukee +122

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Re: 8-22-10

INSIDER ANGLES

Cincinnati vs. LA Dodgers 4:10pm ET
The Cincinnati Reds had won 13 of their last 16 road games entering play on Saturday night, including the first game of this series vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers here at Chavez Ravine n Friday, and we look for that road success to continue on Sunday at a nice underdog price.

The Reds have now opened up a 4.5 game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central due to this hot streak, and they are hitting the ball well, averaging 5.10 runs per game in the last 10 games. Conversely, the Dodgers have now dropped all the way down to fourth place in the National League West, and they are not hitting a lick, averaging 2.60 runs in their last 10 contests.

Bronson Arroyo gets this start for the Reds, and he ahs been brilliant over the last four months after a rough April. Arroyo is 13-7 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP for the whole season, and this is despite going 1-2 with a 6.37 ERA for the first month of the season! He has 13 Quality Starts since May 1, and Arroyo pitched very well in his only other start vs. the Dodgers this season, allowing one run on only five hits in seven innings.

The Dodgers counter with Clayton Kershaw, and although he has pitched well, LA as a team is just 2-5 in his last seven starts. Kershaw is 7-3 with a nice 3.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP for the season, so his recent lack of success has everything to do with the Dodgers’ lack of offense. The bad news for Kershaw here is that he once again does not figure to get much run support.
We will gladly take the better and hotter Cincinnati team at this nice price vs. a team that is not hitting.

MLB Pick: Reds +125

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Re: 8-22-10

GOODFELLA

MLB ML - Sunday, Aug 22 2010 4:10PM
ML 914 LOS (-138) Sportbet vs 913 CIN double-dime bet

Analysis: Listed Pitchers Must Start (Kershaw & Arroyo)

(2*) Double Star Play

I really like the Dodgers in this spot at HOME behind their most dominant pitcher--who has been very, very good at HOME in his short care er---and I do personally see rock solid VALUE with the Dodgers behind Kershaw at -138 this afternoon. Cueto lasted just 3 innings in yesterdays ballgame & the Reds bullpen had to go 5 innings & Leake even through 2 1/3 IP out of the pen--while Billingsley pitched into the 6th inning & Kuo & Broxton came in to shut down the Red--and neither Kuo or Broxton were taxed by a lot of pitches--so BOTH should be ready to go again tonight. Kershaw has been very good in his 2 starts vs the Reds in his short career--including one start this season---going 7 1/3 IP, giving up just one run and 7 hits--walking just one and striking out 7. He has great numbers vs the current Reds---Arroyo takes the ball for the Reds--and several Dodgers have had good success vs him & Arroyo is just 2-4, with a 4.21 ERA in 10 career starts vs them. I definitely expect Kershaw to out-pitch Arroyo this afternoon & hand the ball over to the Dodgers best arms out of the bullpen & take the final game of the series. Bottom line--I see rock solid value with the Dodgers in this spot today & the DODGERS are our (2*) Double Star Top Play for Sunday.

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Re: 8-22-10

Teddy Covers

Nats/Phi Over
SD/Mil Over

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Re: 8-22-10

Ben lee did the splits on Saturday losing with the Twins -$220/Angles and winning with the Tigers-$180/Indians.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" has a "Pure Chalk" play on the Phillies -$240/Nationals.

"Mr Chalk" is 81-58 for the 2010 MLB season.

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Re: 8-22-10

Dave Malinsky

4* SAN DIEGO/MILWAUKEE OVER

Runs have come early and often in this series so far – 27 all told, with no starting pitcher managing to even finish five innings, and three of the four starters failing to last four. That means some overworked bullpens need some time off this afternoon, but we are not convinced that Jon Garland or Manny Parra can supply that for them.

Garland helps to bring us a favorable price point because of the appearance of decent current form, but take a closer look – that 0.90 for his last three starts comes despite the fact that he issued 13 W’s on 20 IP, which means that he has been more lucky that good in this span, with 19 of 20 base-runners failing to score. That changes here against a lineup that brings good wood throughout, making it tough for a “pitch to contact” guy to survive, and as always we must note that impact that Petco Park has on Garland’s numbers, with a 5-6/4.09 on the road that is a better indicator of who he really is.

Meanwhile Parra is another of those lefties that are so fortunate they were born the way that they were – he has worked to a 5.94 over 242.1 innings the past two seasons, which would get a right-handed starter a release notice, and there just is not any sign of him developing the command to be a full-time starter at this level. If anything, the fact that 17 unearned runs do not show on those charts from the last two seasons makes his time on the tight rope even more precarious. In terms of aiding a tired bullpen Parra is no help at all, never going beyond the 6th inning, and only getting that far three times in 15 starts, and over his last two outings we have charted PPI’s of 19.9 and 20.0, with 18 base-runners over just 10.1 frames. Like Garland, he has rolled the dice well recently, with 15 of the 16 that did not hit a HR in those two games being stranded, but that only helps to bring us this favorable price point.

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Re: 8-22-10

King Creole

3* REDS / DODGERS OVER

Major League Baseball's Top 'OVER' Umpire will be working behind the dish in Dodger Stadium on Sunday afternoon. ANGLE CAMPOS comes in with a 16-6 O/U record on the year... and he's been even HOTTER as of late. He's gone 7-1 O/U in his last 7 games... and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in his last 4, with an average of 10.5 combined runs per game. He's also gone 10-3 O/U this year in All National League games. With the winds blowing OUT to Center Field today... and a LOW Over / Under line of 7 runs.... we'll take a BITE with the 'OVER'!

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Re: 8-22-10

Power Play Wins

SD Padres

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Re: 8-22-10

NELLY

Vikings at 49ers
Pick: Vikings +3

Brett Favre delivered a magical performance against the 49ers last season in the regular season as the Vikings delivered a win in the final seconds. While San Francisco may look to avenge that game this could be a tough match-up following a strong preseason debut with a convincing win over the Colts. QB Alex Smith struggled in the game with a 3-for-9 performance and an interception. While Favre’s return to Minnesota will grab the headlines the 49ers also made a marquee addition with former Eagles RB Brain Westbrook signing this week. With Glen Coffee’s surprise retirement the 49ers needed more depth at RB and Westbrook will compete for time with Anthony Dixon, who had a strong effort last week, behind starter Frank Gore. The 49ers are expecting to give a lot of snaps to second-year QB Nate Davis from Ball State. Davis has mainly been a disappointment since being a 5th round pick and the plan is to give him some more meaningful snaps against higher level players early in the game. David Carr played well last week to entrench himself in the back-up role to Smith so this game could be given almost entirely to Davis. With two rookies on the offensive line the 49ers could struggle the entire game against arguably the best defensive line in football, as even the back-ups wreaked havoc last week against the Rams. The two biggest threats in the passing game will be on the bench as well as Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree are unlikely to play with minor injuries. Favre will obviously play minimally but his return should provide a boost to the team overall and Minnesota is now incredibly deep at QB. Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels both have starting experience and could start for several other teams in the league. Jackson did not play significantly last week as Rosenfels put on a show with 310 yards. Rumors have Minnesota possibly showing off Rosenfels this preseason as trade bait as he is getting paid like a starter and a number of teams could use a more reliable back-up option. Minnesota will face a 3-4 defense for the first time this summer which can always be an adjustment but the offensive edge should still side with the Vikings. San Francisco’s defense picked up four interceptions last week and the field position edge was evident throughout the game and was a big factor in the blowout margin. Minnesota has taken the preseason seriously in recent years and on the road this will still be an opportunity for the Vikings to pick up a win and build positive momentum.