8-28-10

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

Teddy Covers

SD Padres
Boston Red Sox

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

nsa

20 texans-3 goy
20 raiders-1
20 under sox/rays 7.5

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

WINNING POINTS

PLAY OF THE DAY
Boston Red Sox +135

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

Chris Jordan
Saturday's plays ...
My 400? winner for Saturday is the CINCINNATI REDS on the RUN LINE

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

2 FOR THE MONEY

400 DIME NY Yankees -130 ML
300 DIME Minnesota Twins
300 DIME Cincinnati Reds -1.5 RL
200 DIME F5 INNINGS KC Royals -125 ML
200 DIME F5 INNINGS Atlanta Braves -180 ML
200 DIME Baltimore Orioles/LA Angels Under 9.5

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

KELSO

BASEBALL
10 units Cincinnati Reds -1.5 runline
15 units LA Dodgers +120

50 UNIT PARLAY
20 units KC Royals -125
20 units NY Mets -160
10 units Parlay Both

FOOTBALL
3 units Dallas Cowboys +3
50 units Jacksonville Jaguars -2 @ Tampa Bay

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

ATS LOCK BASEBALL

5 UNIT San Diego Padres -130
4 UNIT Tampa Bay Rays -130
4 UNIT Florida/Atlanta UNDER 7.5

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

WILDCAT
nfl 7*
baltimore
vikings over

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

DOCTOR SPORTS

SAN DIEGO PADRES -123
garland -vs blanton

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

The Duke's Sports

Minnesota Over (8) for 3 Units

Both of these starters are struggling through the season and we expect the respective lineups to take advantage of them. Blackburn started the season strong but was never the same after he got lit up in Seattle back on June 1st. He also controls a lofty 7.51 ERA in daytime action this season. Fister, on the other hand, has had problems with Minnesota this season; he sports a bloated 4.97 ERA in two starts vs them and gave up home runs to 5 different Twins. The Mariners are 4-1 O/U following a quality start by Fister in his last appearance. Seattle is also 6-2 O/U in this 'total' range. Minnesota, however, is 7-1-1 O/U in their last 9 road favorite roles and 5-2-1 O/U in this 'total' range with Blackburn. "Over" the call.

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

David Malinsky

4* DALLAS over HOUSTON

We have no problem taking a sauna here, with so much steam created on the Texans early today that there is outstanding value to go the other way. Yes, 0-2 teams playing at home have been decent pointspread propositions in the pre-season in the past, but only up to the point at which the natural market corrections take place. As such, consider what we are looking at tonight –

The Cowboys plan to play their starters as long as the Texans, both going into the third quarter. And Dallas is deeper. So the personnel realities make this similar to a regular-season game. So now for the contrast – while Houston is solidly in the -5 range now for this one, in two weeks we already see the Texans as +2 on this field vs. the Colts in key precincts, when they start playing for real. That creates an idea of how over-adjusted this one is.

Houston has a first-rate passing game, but the Texans are not in the NFL’s elite in the other key areas, especially in terms of toughness and depth. We saw evidence of the latter in last week’s ugly 38-20 loss at New Orleans, when the Saints rambled for 198 rushing yards. And two weeks ago the second-unit defense gave away a win at Arizona. So yes, there may be a stated focus here to make amends for those embarrassments, but while the sound bytes have led to a gold rush to the windows in the morning markets, the reality is that they are the weaker team in this matchup and do not bring the kind of control to simply go out and get what they want. And Gary Kubiak has already tried to take some pressure off of this scoreboard result - "Winning is always important, hell, that's why we play, but as I said all along you got to keep in perspective all the people you're playing, too."

The Dallas defense has a chance to be the NFL’s best this season, only allowing one score in the first half through three pre-season games. Wade Phillips put them through a lighter practice week than usual to keep them fresh for this one, and with his starters on the field as long as the Texan starters, and a better reserve cast, it would be no surprise for the Cowboys to get the outright win, with the generous line being offered a nice cushion.

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

LT PROFITS
(nflx 6-6)
4* 49ers
3* bills
2* browns

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

Coach K's Premium Plays
2* Texans -3.5
2* 49ers +1
2* Bears/Cards Over 38
2* Texans/Cowboys Over 40.5
2* Bucs/Jags Over 37
1* Seahawks +5.5
1* Lions/Browns Under 38

Freddy Wills' Premium Plays
5* Rangers -146 (5-Dime POD)
2* Braves (2-Dime Oddsline Error)

Tommy Gun's Premium Plays
3* Padres -127
2* Yanks -133
2* 49ers +1

Adam Nichols' Premium Plays
5* Pads ml -130
5* Rays ml -122

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

SPORTS WAGERS

Oakland +1.38 over TEXAS
This has been an eventful season for Dallas Braden. His season includes a perfect game, pitching through an early-season ankle injury that often left his status uncertain between scheduled starts, and a mid-season DL stint with elbow tendinitis, which cost him a month. Perhaps most significantly, 2010 may become known as the season in which Braden established himself as a solid starting pitcher. Braden's 62%/14% good start/bad start split indicates that he has become a reliable, consistent starter this season despite the physical obstacles he has faced. The 2010 skill-set here include some clear differences from that of previous seasons. His control has improved from solid to elite, as Braden has lowered his walk rate by more than one-per-nine-innings, a substantial improvement. Braden is inducing more groundballs than in seasons past, with a substantial rise in GB% accompanied by a corresponding drop in FB%. Despite a strong offensive showing last night, the Rangers still struggle vs southpaws. More than that, however, is the tag being offered here against Rich Harden. Harden continued his "Jekyll-and-Hyde" season with 6.2 hitless-shutout innings on Monday. He threw 111 pitches in a five-walk, six-strikeout effort in his return from a shoulder issue-induced DL stint. Harden has struggled between injuries this season, with horrid control contributing to an awful 5.56 xERA. Harden also has a 53% FB rate, a 74% strand rate and over his last three starts that strand rate is 88%. Harden is a high-risk favorite that is not worth the risk. Play: Oakland +1.38 (Risking 2 units).


Minnesota –1.07 over SEATTLE
Nick Blackburn has shown very little this season and in most cases he’s been completely torched. He comes into this game with a 2-7 road record and a 9.30 ERA to go along with it. In fact, his ERA on the road is almost three times higher than the home ERA (3.14) of Doug Fister. The difference between these two pitchers, however, is very slight and while Blackburn’s ERA is a result of everything going wrong, Fister’s ERA is a result of everything going right. Fact is, Fister is a soft-tosser with a ton of blowup risk. In four August starts, he’s allowed 31 hits in just 22 IP for a BAA of .333. It’s also worth noting that the Twinkies have seen him twice this year and they scored five runs on him both times so he’s not likely to fool them here either. As for Blackburn, well, he, too, is a soft-tosser with good control. He and Fister could be brothers in that respect, as they come from the same school of pitching. The big difference is not in their skill levels; that’s even. The difference comes in the respective teams they play for and you certainly don’t need this analysis to point those differences out. In a match-up of equally poor starters, with one being no better than the other, take the much-better team and lay under a dime. Play: Minnesota –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).


Arizona +1.38 over SAN FRANCISCO
This could be the biggest overlay on the board today. First, the D-Backs continue to tear it up against lefties with one of the top OPS vs southpaws in the league. Arizona is still playing good ball and have been for the better part of the last month. They came in here last night and beat Tim Lincecum and the Giants 6-0 in a matchup that looked a lot less favorable than this one. Barry Zito is still Barry Zito no matter how you break it down. He relies heavily on his experience and some luck and sometimes it works out. Fact is, Zito has an xERA his past three starts of 7.27. His GB rate of 35% is one of the lowest in the majors. If he wins, he’s lucky because he absolutely will allow the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities with his propensity to give up hits and walks. As the season drags on, you can expect Zito’s fluky 3.78 ERA to head south. Over his last four appearances, which include that one inning he pitched in that marathon game against the Reds last week, Zito has surrendered 28 hits in 16 innings. Zito is a stiff, period. Daniel Hudson has been brilliant. Since coming over from the Chicago White Sox on July 30, he’s done nothing but dominate. Hudson held Colorado to four hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out nine Sunday, but didn’t get any help in a 1-0 loss. Hudson has nasty stuff and when you consider that everyone has seen Zito about 1000 times and nobody has seen Hudson, a big edge has to go to the pitcher nobody has seen. Play: Arizona +1.38 (Risking 2 units).


EDMONTON +6 over Saskatchewan
The Eskies have been ripe for the pickings all season long and this one could be no different. Still, laying points on the road in this league has been a bankroll killer all year and it’s for that reason that doing so cannot be recommended. The Esks are down and out but they still have some talented players and the Riders have shown enough flaws this year to warrant going against them. Play: Edmonton +6 (No bets).

[spook]

Re: 8-28-10

SPORTS WAGERS

Randy Couture (via submission) –1.30 over James Toney
Dana White admits that he has entered the world of "Freak Shows" with this fight and he won't get any argument here. Both men are in their 40’s and well past their prime. In all honesty though how can Randy "Captain America" Couture lose this fight? The UFC would not have allowed this fight to happen if they thought that James Toney had any chance of winning. Do you know how embarrassing it would be for MMA if he waltzed in and beat one of the main faces of the sport in the octagon? It would be absolutely devastating. If this were a straight boxing match James Toney would be the lock of all locks but it's not and the transition from boxing to MMA has a much higher degree of difficulty. The UFC knows that Couture will never be a contender again but fights like this one allow him to finish his career with high-profile victories. Toney has approached the fight saying that he doesn't need to learn any jiu-jitsu or wrestling skills and that attitude will certainly seal his fate. For those who think that he has a punchers chance, he better knock Randy out on the first punch he throws cause after that he will surely be on his back. Couture will take this fight to the mat and punish Toney for all the smack he’s been talking. He will probably soften him up with some ground and pound before he locks in a submission to score a victory for MMA over Boxing. There is no value laying –6-1 on Couture straight up and this fight will definitely end inside the distance. Toney has a decent chin, so it only makes sense to lay the smallest amount offered, that being, Couture by submission. Play: Couture –1.30 by submission (Risking 2.6 units to win 2).

Kenny Florian –3½ +1.30 over Gray Maynard
Gray Maynard is 9-0-0-(1) in his career and is riding a seven-fight win-streak in the UFC but he is taking a massive step up in class here. Kenny "KenFlo" Florian is one of the best Lightweight mixed martial-artists in the world. He has dominated everyone he has faced before and after his Championship match loss against B.J. Penn. In his two fights since that title shot he has looked like an absolute beast, dominating both Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi before submitting them both with rear naked chokes. It should also be noted that both of those fighters came back to win their next fights convincingly. Gray Maynard is getting a lot of hype going into this contest but his résumé isn't nearly as impressive. He is a great wrestler with solid power but he doesn't finish his fights. His last six victories came by decision and he barely squeaked by both Nate Diaz and Roger Huerta via split decision in his last two contests. If both Florian and Penn win on this card, it will surely set up the rematch between them for the belt. Maynard has looked very hesitant in his recent bouts and if he does that here "KenFlo" will jump all over him. Florian is one of the most intelligent fighters in the sport and he will get the best of Maynard both on his feet and on the ground. He may end the fight within the distance via submission but there is no reason why he won't claim victory by more than 3½ points on the scorecards of the judges. Taking plus money by laying 3½ points on one of the best in the sport only makes sense here. Play: Kenny Florian (-3½ Points) +1.30 (Risking 2 units).