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Both teams are almost as evenly matched as you can be and it showed last night in a close Padres 2-1 win. Tonight, the pitching matchup favors the Dodgers with Chad Billingsley on the mound. Los Angeles needs a win so they don’t end up hitting a huge slide just like the Padres did for the last two weeks. Cory Luebke is not yet a proven enough pitcher to be even money in this game. Take the Dodgers.
Wednesday's Action
15 DIME baseball selaction on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS over the Giants in the finale of a three-game series from Chase Field. As I go live with today’s plays, Arizona is a -130 favorite across the board. Note that you must specify both San Francisco’s Barry Zito and Arizona’s Daniel Hudson as the startaing pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
5 DIME baseball selection on the COLORADO ROCKIES over the Reds in the third game of a four-game series from Coors Field. As I go live with today’s plays, Colorado is a -125 favarite across the board. Note that you must specify only Aaron Cook as the Rockies’ starting pitcher. If Cook does not start, this play is VOID!
Diamondbacks
Barry Zito’s numbers in his last four starts: 0-4, 11.02 ERA. That’s 20 earned runs (22 total runs) allowed in 16 1/3 innings, during which he’s surrendered 15 hits (three walks) and 12 walks. That includes three losses on the road to the Phillies (9-3), Cardinals (9-0) and Dodgers (4-2). The other defeat – and the worst of the bunch? An 11-3 home loss to these Diamondbacks, with Zito yielding nine runs (seven earned) on six hits and five walks in 3 2/3 innings.
With that eight-run loss on Aug. 28, Zito is now 3-7 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in 13 career starts against Arizona, including 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in seven starts at Chase Field. The DBacks’ cumulative batting average when facing Zito in the desert? .311, which is by far Zito’s hiahest opponents’ batting average in any ballpark where he’s pitched more than three times.
Summation: Barry Zito cannot be trusted tonight – at all!
On the other hand, what’s not to love about young Arizona right-hander Daniel Hudson? Since being acquired from the White Sox, Hudson has gone 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA in seven starts, giving up just 11 runs (five on home runs) and 37 hits while walking just nine and striking out 48 in 49 2/3 innings. In four home starts, Hudson has yielded just six runs in 27 2/3 innings (1.95 ERA).
Hudson pitched opposite Zito back on Aug. 28 in San Francisco and allowed just two runs on four hits in seven innings, picking up the easy win. He’s pitched at least seven innings in each of his first six starts with the DBacks before going six innings in Friday’s 4-3 win over Houston. And only once has Hudson allowed more than two runs in a game (when he gave up three runs in seven innings in a loss to Cincinnati).
Bottom line: There’s no question San Francisco is the better team, and it has now won four in a row (all on the highway) and six out of seven, while Arizona has followed up a 7-1 run by losing its last four in a row. Still, it’s impossible to ignore what a huge pitching advaentage the DBacks have tonight – just as it’s impossible to ignore that the Giants haven’t won five straight road games since a seven-game winning streak in spring 2008, and that was seven wins split over two different road trips. (The last time San Francisco won five straight as a visitor was August 2007!).
Rockies
Damn right I’m backing the Rockies for the second night in a row, even though Colorado barely escaped last night and even though the stats suggest Cincinnati has the better starting pitcher going.
An update of the numbers I presented yesterday: The Rockies have now won five games in a row, all against first-place competirion (San Diego and Cincinnati); they’re 12-4 in their last 16 games, including nine victories against teams in playoff contention (Giants, Padres, Braves, Reds); and they’ve won 22 of their last 30 games at Coors Field, where they’re now 23 games over .500 for the season (45-22) and where they’re batting .302 as a team (the best home batting average in the game).
Meanwhile, 18 of Cincinnati’s last 20 victories have come against opponents (Pirates, Cubs, DBacks, Dodgers and Brewers) that are playing out the string. At the same time, the Reds are 2-9 in their last 11 games against playoff contenders (St. Louis, San Francisco, Colorado).
Once again, I must repeat that Cincinnati just can’t handle the Rockies, who have won 19 of the last 24 head-to-head meetings overall and 21 of the last 27 meetings in the Mile High City (including the last eight in a row). The last time the Reds posted a victory in Coors Field? Back on Aug. 22, 2008.
As for the pitching matchup, yes Cincinnati’s Bronson Arroyo (14-9, 3.84 ERA) has been much more consistent than Colorado’s Aaron Cook (5-8, 5.18 ERA). However, the Reds are just 4-5 in Arroyo’s last nine starts (even though the right-hander has come through with quality starts in seven of his last eight outings). And Cincy has scored three runs or less in seven of Arroyo’s last 11 trips to the hill (including back-to-back 3-2 losses in his last two starts).
Two positives about Cook: 1) He returned to Colorado’s rotation after a month-long stint on the disabled list and dominated the Padres on Friday, allowing two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-3 road win; and 2) Cook has faced the Reds five times since 2007, and Colorado won all five games (and Cook has a 3.00 ERA in his last six starts against Cincy).
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