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Re: 9-11-10
Keith Martin Sports
Texas over 51
Keith Martin Sports
Texas over 51
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Re: 9-11-10
EVAN ALTEMUS
3 Units E. Michigan +16
I did not think that Eastern Michigan would be much improved from last season. However, I was wrong, as the Eagles were able to cover against a decent Army team and having a chance to win outright. Oddsmakers apparently are going to take a few games to adjust to just to the improvement of Eastern Michigan. This point spread is really surprising considering just one win separated these two teams last season. This point spread could also be reflecting last week’s results where Miami of Ohio played Florida somewhat tough and covered the point spread. However, that result was almost exclusively because of Florida’s lack of effort and execution. Miami also simply isn’t a high scoring team, as their offense is predominantly based on running the ball. I expect this game to be much closer than this point spread would indicate, as Eastern Michigan just isn’t this much worse than Miami. Look for the Eagles to cover.
3 Units Tennessee / Oregon Under 53
This selection is a great chance to fade last week's results and what the public saw. Both of these teams had huge offensive performances with Oregon putting up 72 points and Tennessee putting up 50 points. However, they faced very poor teams in New Mexico and Tennessee Martin. Oregon and Tennessee just used their size and athleticism advantage to a huge rushing advantage. However, both offenses won't be able to do as well in this game against vastly better defenses. This game features two quarterbacks with not much starting experience. In addition the Volunteers have five new offensive linemen this season and some of their offensive weapons out for this game. Oregon meanwhile is also playing a new quarterback with not much experience, and now Darron Thomas will face a much bigger defensive front seven. Tennessee's offense is going to struggle, and I expect them to slow down Oregon enough to keep this game under the total, especially with Oregon playing on the road with an inexperienced quarterback.Comment
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Re: 9-11-10
SAM CLAYTON
2* MICH vs ND -3 -120
Looking for continued success on the gridiron, I'm particularly drawn to this marquee matchup on Saturday afternoon. Where do I start? Okay, how about PUBLIC PERCEPTION. Michigan, I mean Denard Robinson, looked ELECTRIC against a surprisingly slow Connecticut defense last weekend on national television. Boy, can this kid run the damn football. He isn't as good of a passer as meets the eye, I allocate that more toward Randy Edsall trying to adjust by loading the box, thus hanging his relatively weak secondary out to dry. Notre Dame on the other hand really put the breaks on against Purdue and coasted the entire second half. And had the Irish really capitalized in the Boilers' red zone --- ahem, Michael Floyd's fumble on the 2 and TJ Jones dropping a surefire touchdown --- the game could have very well been ND 34-3 at the end of the third quarter instead of 20-3. So at the end of the day, Michigan looked GREAT; the Irish so-so.
For all the hype around Robinson, the kid is still incredibly raw and he hasn't been thrown into the wild yet. That's right, last week was his FIRST career collegiate start. It's one thing to tear it up in an extremely important "program game" in front of 100,000+ Big Blue fans in Ann Arbor. It's quite another to make your FIRST ROAD START in South Bend against a bitter rival that can light up the scoreboard in a New York minute. I cease to believe Robinson will be calm and collected as he was against UConn and I'm banking on a quick, underrated Notre Dame defense that is far too familiar with the spread offense to hold their own. Everybody seems to think the Irish defense is loaded with unathletic, unaware cadavers that aren't capable of moving, let alone tackling. (Note: I find it hilarious that after being writen off all off-season, Michigan is suddenly a dangerous team with a "Heisman candidate" under center). Fellow spreadsman Brian Kelly will be able to alter and change looks against Robinson with his very athletic defensive unit, notably DE Kapron Lewis-Moore and linebackers Darius Fleming and Manti Te'o. Then, when the spy and contain packages slow down Robinson's legs, he'll try to exploit a secondary boasting three seniors and junior Jamoris Slaughter. All these expectations for the aforementioned sophomore that hasn't started a road game?! Not so fast my friend!
On the offensive end, Notre Dame has the perfect balance of power and speed. Armando Allen is an absolute horse out of the backfield and QB Dayne Crist has a fantastic triumverate --- WRs Floyd and Jones, TE Kyle Rudolph --- to rely on through the air. Those three put LOADS of pressure on a very young, very inexperienced Wolverines secondary that got some lucky breaks against UConn. Kelly did a superb job last weekend using his weapons in their areas of strength. Floyd was targeted mostly on the perimeter with fade routes and thin posts while Rudolph lined up in-line, but also flexed out in the slot. The 6-6 tight end is a MASSIVE target for Crist and he just so happens to double as a safety blanket. I fail to see anybody in blue and maize that can contain him. Back to Michigan's depleted secondary, RichRod will imploy a lot of zone coverage not wanting to get beat on the home run. However, this can and will backfire giving the ND skill players ample wiggle room to attack the cushion areas.
This game also lines up nicely for the Sam Clayton special, the REVENGE ANGLE. Last season was supposed to be the year for Jimmy Clausen and Co., yet it was THIS game last year (38-34 LOSS in Ann Arbor) that opened up the flood gates for an inevitable Irish downward spiral and Charlie Weis' eventual termination in South Bend. Something tells me the Irish will have that extra edge on Saturday, which doesn't bode well for Michigan. It's already bad enough that the home team has DOMINATED this matchup --- host is 7-3 ATS L10 contests --- now the Wolverines have to stamper into the home of Touchdown Jesus and try and knock them off for the second straight year. Oh boy.
Call me insane, but at the current marker I believe the VALUE is with Notre Dame. Vegas opened up the Irish as a six-point favorite and 10,800 wagers later with 77 percent off the money on Michigan, I'm locking this spread in at 3.5. I spoke earlier about the public overvaluing Michigan and underestimating Notre Dame. You have to wonder if all those bettors that were burned going against Michigan last week will change over and roll with the Wolverines on Saturday. Then again, you don't have to think, that's exactly what is happening here. I see past the hype and will roll with the Irish, benefactors of back-to-back home games to open their season. Last week against Purdue was a chance to iron out the kinks. When that was accomplished and the Irish took a 20-3 lead, they punched it into cruise control and began to direct ALL their attention toward Michigan, that overhyped school with the quarterback that has yet to start a road game.Comment
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Re: 9-11-10
Bobby Maxwell
Saturday's winner...
700-Unit College Absolute Lock - WASHINGTON
I know the Huskies didn’t play well against BYU in Provo, Utah, last season, but if you look at the numbers, there were right there with the chance to beat the Cougars on their home turf. They will clean up most of their struggles and really look good here in this one. Jake Locker is a preseason Heisman Trophy candidate who will make an impression today with a huge game against Syracuse.
Locker threw for 266 yards and a TD in the tough 23-17 loss at BYU on Saturday as the Huskies lost outright as 1 ½-point favorites. The Huskies didn’t turn the ball over, but they sure made some bone-headed plays out there against the Cougars. They failed on a couple of fourth down plays inside the BYU 30 yard line, they suffered a safety on a botched punt in the first quarter and didn’t do a whole lot right in the second half.
That all changes as they are at home here tonight. These two teams met in Syracuse back in 2007 and the Huskies crushed the Orange 42-12 as a three-point road chalk. Believe it or not, Jake Locker was there for that one, throwing for 142 yards and rushing for 83 and two TDs. In fact, the Huskies put up 444 yards of total offense and went 7-for-11 on third down.
Syracuse is not a very good team when it takes to the road. The Orange are 1-11-1 in games played on the West Coast since 1964 and Washington is 23-2 in home games against teams coming from the East since 1970.
The Orange also had some trouble on special teams against Akron on Saturday, even though they got the easy 29-3 victory as 8 ½-point road favorites. Syracuse muffed two punts and has trouble with snaps on PATs, leaving two points on the field with the botched snaps. Orange QB Ryan Nassib threw for two TDs and an INT and Syracuse lost two fumbles. They have trouble holding on to the ball and that is going to cost them some scores here tonight.
Washington has too much offense and the Huskies had their ugly game on Saturday against BYU. They will clean things up at home this week and deliver a beating to Syracuse. I’m going to lay the chalk and play Washington in this one.Comment
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Re: 9-11-10
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
Saturday Baseball
50* Play Chicago White Sox (-230) over Kansas City
Game starts at 7:10 PM EST
Kansas City has lost 7 of the last 8 games and they have also lost 6 of the last 7 games vs. Chicago on the road. White Sox pitcher, Edwin Jackson has won 6 of the last 7 games as a favorite of -175 to -250 and he is 2-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.62.
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50* Play Cincinnati (-245) over Pittsburgh
Game starts at 7:10 PM EST
Pittsburgh has lost 21 of the last 24 road games when playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have also lost 42 of the last 54 road games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs. Charlie Morton has lost 11 of the last 12 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is 0-7 in road games this season with an ERA of 13.02.Comment
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Re: 9-11-10
Jeff Benton Saturday's Action
30 DIME college football selection on OKLAHOMA minus the points vs. Florida State. As I release this play, the Sooners are a solid 7-point favorite both in Vegas and offshore. Note that if this number creeps up to 7½, I want you to buy the half-point and lay only a touchdown. At the same time, if it drops to 6½ be sure to make you grab that number immediately.
10 DIME college football selection on ARMY minus the points vs. Hawaii. As I release this play, Army is a 2 ½ to 3-point favorite. If you cannot seecure the Black Knights at -2½, buy the half-point and get off that key number of three. If this ends up a field-goal game in Army’s favor, we want to make sure we collect.
10 DIME college football selection on KANSAS plus the points vs. Georgia Tech. As I release this play, Kansas is a home underdog ranging from 13½ to 14½. I expect the betting public to be all over Georgia Tech minus the points here, so at the very least make sure you get the full two torchdowns – no reason to take less when you don’t have to.
OKLAHOMA
Typical overreaction by bettors and handicappers alike, as all the money in this game has come pouring in on Florida State – the line opened at Oklahoma -8½ and is now under 7 in some spots. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it 1,000 times: DO NOT fall into the trap of jumping on or fading a team based on Week 1 results.
Yes Florida State destroyed Samford 59-6 last week, while the Sooners struggled to put away inferior Utah State 31-24 at home. So what? It was just one game for each team, and the first one at that – and with it being the first game of the post-Bobby Bowden era at Florida State, of course new coach Jimbo Fisher wanted to make a statament
If anything, I’d be worried if I was a Seminole fan. Collegiate players can get a real false sense of security when they wallop an inferior opponent and start thinking they’re better than they really are. Clearly, that’s something we won’t have to worry about with the Sooners. I’m sure coach Bob Stoops made his players watch tape of that Utah State for so long they were seeing it in their sleep – specifically, how they let off the gas after racing out to a 21-0 lead.
Seriously, though, if you think Stoops spent more than 30 minutes game-planning for Utah State, I’ve got some swamp land in Vegas I’d like to sell you. No, Stoops has spent the entire offseason getting his team ready for THIS game against Florida State because he knows it’s a more dangerous opponent. So you can be sure we’ll see a completely different, more focused Oklahoma squad hit the field this afternoon at Owen Field.
Speaking of Owen Field, the Sooners have won 31 consecutive games in their venue – the longest active home winning streak streak in college football. Their last loss at home was a 17-10 upset defeat to TCU in the 2005 opener. Meanwhile, Florida State suffered road losses last year to Florida (37-10), Clemson (40-24) and Boston College (28-21).
Oklahoma has the best player on the field in senior RB DeMarco Murray, who is finally 100 percent healthy and proved it last week when he raced for 218 yards and two TDs against Utah State. And I expect a big bounce-back game from QB Landry Jones, who struggled to a 17-for-36, two TD, two INT performance against Utah State (last year, Jones subbed for Sam Bradford and threw for a freshman-record 3,198 yards and 26 TDs).
Both Jones and Murray should have big games against a suspect Florida State defense that surrendered 37 points or more five times last year (and 26 or more nine times). On the flip side, the Seminoles’ high-powered offense is in for a rude awakening, as Oklahoma’s stop unit is much better than it showed last week against Utah State.
During its 31-game home winning streak, Oklahoma is 18-7-1 ATS in lined games, and despite falling way short of the number against Utah State, the Sooners are still on an 11-3-1 ATS roll in September (you have to go back to the start of that 2005 season, when they lost to TCU and started 0-3 ATS, for the last time OU suffereed back-to-back ATS setbacks in September). The ‘Noles, meanwhile, are in ATS funks of 8-22-1 after a victory and 7-21-1 after a win of 20-plus points.
Oklahoma comfortably by two touchdowns.
ARMY
All the situational and fundamental stats point to Hawaii in this game. The Warriors are coming off a hard-fought 49-36 loss to USC, staying inside the 20-point spread, while Army barely escaped with a 31-27 win at Eastern Michigan – easily the worst Division I-A team in the country – failing to cover as a 9½-point road favorite. Hawaii has cashed in five of its last seven games, while the Cadets are in a 5-12 ATS funk and they’ve lost 11 of their last 13 home debuts. And the only other time these teams met, Army went to the Islands in 2003 and got smoked 59-28 as a 28-point underdog, getting outgained by 343 yards.
So why back Army here as a favorite? Check the game time: Noon eastern. You know what time it is in Hawaii when it’s noon in New York? How about 6 a.m.! And I don’t care if the Warriors – making the farthest trip east in school history, by the way – left home a day early to account for the time difference. You think two days are enough for the Hawaii players’ body clocks to adjust? No way.
Hawaii isn’t 100 percent healthy, either. QB Bryant Moniz, who was spectarular against USC, took a vicious hit to the head in the second half against the Trojans, and though he’s been cleared to start this game, I doubt he’s shaken out all the cobwebs.
Bottom line: I’ll grant that the Warriors have the overall talent edge (not by much, but they do), and they certainly play at a faster pace – when they’re awake, that is! Seriously, only one of these teams is accustomed to waking up at the crack of dawn and going to work, and it ain’t Hawaii! Look for the Cadets to try to pound the ball at Hawaii early and often – and look for the Warriors to not want to deal with the punishment.
KANSAS
Another game – just like Oklahoma-Florida State – where there’s been too much of an adjustment made by the betting public based on last week’s results. Obviously, things could not have gone ANY worse for Kansas and first-year coach Turner Gill, whose debut was an embarrassing 6-3 home loss to North Dakota State. Couple that result with Georgia Tech’s season-opening 41-10 romp of South Carolina State, and you knew we’d see the Yellow Jackets laying a big number in this game.
Well, it’s too big of a number. And I say that fully aware that A) the Jayhawks have lost eight in a row since jumping out to a 5-0 start last season; and B) Georgia Tech is 21-7 under third-year coach Paul Johnson, including 16-8 ATS in lined games (8-3 ATS down the stretch last year). All the more reason to believe we’re dealing with a wildly inflated line here.
Three things to keep in mind: 1) Kansas killed itself last week, missing two field goals and losing three turnovers (including an INT in the end zone); 2) Gill ran the option to great success as a QB at Nebraska, so he’ll know how to defend Georgia Tech’s potent option attack; and 3) The Yellow Jackets 31-point win last week was misleading (they only outgained South Carolina State by 112 yards, and the defense gave up 178 rushing yards).
Finally, consider that Back in June, one property in Vegas put out pointspreads for dozens of the year’s marquee football matchups, including this Georgia Tech-Kansas game. You know what their original number was? Georgia Tech as a seven-point favorite. Now the Jackets are laying 14 – that’s a full touchdown of value in the number. Good enough for me!Comment
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Re: 9-11-10
Savannah Sports
Premium Picks For The Day
Todays Selections
2 (**) Notre Dame -3.5
2 (**) Air Force -1
2 (**) Tennessee +11.5
2 (**) Vanderbilt +10.5
Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
2 (**) Hawaii +3
2 (**) Memphis +13.5
2 (**) Iowa Over 45
2 (**) USC Over 51Comment
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