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Re: 9-25-10
Jay McNeil
20 Dimer on the Stanford Cardinals
Jay McNeil
20 Dimer on the Stanford Cardinals
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Re: 9-25-10
Marc Lawrence 36-0 ATS College Football Most Valuable Plays - Saturday
$50.00
You can score with all THREE of Marc's MOST VALUABLE PLAYS on Saturday's College football card today. They are his No. 1 College Football Favorite, No. 1 College Football Underdog and No. 1 College Football Revenge Games of the Week and they're backed by winning situations inside the game that are 36-0 ATS. Get them now and pay only after they profit for you!
Boise St
BYU (3* Late phone play)
Ohio UComment
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Re: 9-25-10
Jeff Benton SATURDAY'S WINNERS
40 Dime college football selection on ALABAMA as we’ll lay the points against Arkansas in SEC action. Alabama is a consansus 7-point road favorite. If this number jumps to 7½, buy down the half-point so you’re only laying -7. I do expect Alabama to win this game handily, but if it ends up being deicided by a touchdown, we do not want to get beat by the hook.
15 Dime college football selection on AIR FORCE as we’ll lay the points against Wyoming in Mountain West Conference action. Air Force is a consensus 13½-point road favorite, though I expect late money to come in on the Falcons that will push these odds to the key number of 14. So don’t delay in making your wager.
10 Dime college football selection on BALL STATE as we’ll take the points against Iowa. Ball State is a big 28-point road undeldog in this one.
ALABAMA
Suffice it to say, I learned a lesson last week regarding Alabama. The Crimson Tide were in a classic letdown/sandwich spot, traveling to Duke for a non-conference game one week after a dominating home win over Penn State and a week before a killer three-game SEC stretch of @ Arkansas, vs. Florida, @ South Carolina.
The situation lined up perfectly as a go-against for Alabama, so I took 24½ points with Duke. And all the Tide did was roll to an unbelievably easy 62-13 victory, jumping out to a 28-0 lead 10 minutes into the game and finishing with an eye-popping 626 total yards. The result told me one thing: Alabama once again is absoluaely for real, and they’re not looking past ANYBODY at ANY time this season. So even though they have that huge rivalry game against Florida in Tuscaloosa next week, I’m convinced – after what they did at Duke last week – that the Tide will be fully focused on Arkansas.
And that’s bad news for the Razorbacks, because the only chance they had of competing in this contest was if they caught the Crimson Tide with their guard down. Yes, Arkansas is definitely improving. Yes, it is coming off an impressive road win at Georgia (though it blew a 24-10 fourth-quarter lead). And yes, the Razorbacks have an NFL caliber quarterback in Ryan Mallett (70 percent completions, 1,081 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs). But let’s be clear here: They’re not even close to having enough horses to run with the defending champs.
Alabama has now won 16 consecutive games, with all but two being by nine points or more. That includes eight wins away from Tuscaloosa by scores of 34-24 (Virginia Tech at a neutral site), 38-20 (at Kentucky), 22-3 (at Ole Miss), 31-3 (at Mississippi State), 26-21 (at Auburn), 32-13 (Florida in the SEC championship game), 37-21 (Texas in the BCS title game) and 62-13 (at Duke). And if you go back to the start of the 2008 season, Nick Saban’s squad has won 28 consecutive regular-season games, including an astonishing 22 double-digit blowouts!
In its three wins this year (San Jose State, Penn State and Duke), Alabama has put up 134 points and surrendered 19, including just one touchdown (which came near the end of the first half last week when Duke was trailing 42-6). The Tide are averaging 542 yards per game, including 250.7 on the ground (6.8 yards per rush), and their young defense has grown up in a hurry, surrendering just 253.3 ypg.
Granted, that defense will be facing its toughest challenge of the season here, as Mallett and the Razorbacks can move the football and score points. But at the same time, this is the most talented, most athletic defense Mallett and Co. have seen this season. In fact, it’s the best D Arkansas has faced in, well, exactly a year. It was 52 weeks ago that Arkansas went to Tuscaloosa and got dumped 35-7 as a 17½-point underdog, with Mallett going 12-for-35 for 161 yards. And the year previous, the Tide went to Fayetteville and posted an even more impressive 49-14 win as an eight-point road underdog (part of Alabama’s 28-game regular-season winning streak).
One more important point to make here, and it deals not with Xs and Os, but rather conifidence: Which of these teams do you think is going to be more comfortable and more prepared to deal with the pressure that comes with this game? Alabama, which in the last two-plus seasons has won marquee, pressure-packed games against such powerhouses as Penn State, Texas, Florida, Virginia Tech, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee (twice) and Clemson? Or the Razorbacks, who under third-year coach Bobby Petrino have just two signature wins (last week’s against a down Georgia squad, and a one-point win over LSU in the 2008 season finale when LSU had thrown in the towel on the season) to go with high-profile losses to Alabama (twice), Texas, Florida (twice), Georgia (52-41 at home) and LSU?
The bottom line is I have no question in my mind that the Crimson Tide will be clam, cool and collected from the get-go today – and I have no question that if ‘Bama does face some adversity, it will be able to overcome it. I do NOT have the same confidence in Arkansas, which I don’t believe is ready for prime time.
As for this pointspread, look, I know we’re paying an Alabama tax here (this was a 3½-point spread three months ago). But Saban has shown the last two years that when he wins, he tends to win BIG (again, 22 of 28 wins by double digits, plus a nine-point victory). And for what it’s worth, ‘Bama is on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 9-2 on the road, 5-0 in September and 10-4 in SEC play. Also, the visitor has cashed in four of the last six in this rivalry.
Lay the points with confidence, and look for RB Mark Ingram and QB Greg McElroy (who has still NEVER lost a football game going back to his high school days!) to put up big numbers against a suspect Arkansas defense. Alabama by 17.
AIR FORCE
Air Force is in a tough spot here, traveling on back-to-back weeks after last Saturday’s impressive showing against Oklahoma (27-24 loss as a 17-point underdog – I had the Falcons as a free play in that one). Still, I trust the Fly Boys offense to have no trouble at all running – literally! – up and down the field against a Wyoming defense that has been shredded on the ground in its first three games. After giving up 191 rushing yards in a home win over Southern Utah, the Cowboys have gotten steamrolled the last two weeks by Texas (167 rushing yards) and Boise State (275 rushing yards).
Wyoming lost those two contests by combined margin of 85-13, and even though few would put Air Force in the same class as Boise and Texas, I’d imagine few thought the Falcons would go into Norman last week (where Oklahoma had won 31 straight games) and outplay the seventh-ranked Sooners (Air Force had a 458-367 yard edge in total offense and rushed for an astonishing 351 yards).
Already this season, Air Force’s triple-option attack has racked up nearly 1,200 rushing yards (399 per game), averaging 6.3 yards per tote. By compalison, the Cowboys have rushed for a grand total of 73 yards in three games (24.3 per contest) while giving up 211 ypg on the ground!
Dating to a 27-point bowl win over Houston last year, Air Force has scored 47, 65, 35 and 24 points in its last four games, going 3-1 SU and ATS. Since Halloween of last year, the Falcons have won six of eight, scoring 34 or more in all six wins. They’ve also taken four straight in the Mountain West Conference rivalry with Wyoming (3-1 ATS), winning the last two by an aggregate score of 33-3.
Finally, the Falcons have been a spread-covering machine of late, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road favorite, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a double-digit chalk, 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against losing teams and 31-14-1 ATS in their last 46 September contests. Wyoming is in pointspread slumps of 0-4 at home, 2-7 as a home ‘dog, 1-4 as a double-digit home ‘dog, 5-14-1 against winning teams and 7-20-1 in non-conference play.
BALL STATE
I simply don’t trust Iowa to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss at Arizona and have the energy or desire to steamroll a MAC opponent by this kind of margin.
Not only are the Hawkeyes likely still down in the dumps after the way their trip to Tucson unfolded – they fell behind 27-7 at halftime, rallied with 20 unanswered points to tie the game, missed an extra-point blocked that would’ve given them the lead, then gave up the winning score with under 4 minutes to play – but they’ve got much bigger fish to fry. Iowa has four huge Big Ten games on deck against Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State, meaning this contest against Ball State is a classic sandwich/look-ahead situation.
Ball State bounced back from a humiliating home loss to Liberty and acquitted itself well at Purdue last week, losing 24-13 but covering as a 16½-point road underdog. The puts the Cardinals at 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last four as a double-digit road underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the Big Ten. Furthermore, Ball State has covered in 13 of its last 17 non-conference games.
On the flip side, Iowa has just two spread-covers in its last seven home games (all as a favorite), and while they are on an 8-2-1 ATS roll against MAC opponents, the Hawkeyes have also covered in just three of their last 13 against teams with a losing record (bolstering my belief that Iowa won’t bring the kind of intensity or focus necessary to cover a four-touchdown pointspread).Comment
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Re: 9-25-10- GC NCAAF play
Saturday 5* NCAAF Game of the Month has 100% Power system and leads card that has 100% Power Angle Blowout, Dog with bite that wins outright system, + 94% and 91% system sides and a 89% MLB Winner. Friday 5* SD $$. NCAAF Cashes the last 2 nights.
On Saturday the Free play is on LSU. Game 376 at 9:00 eastern. LSU is a solid 7-1 in non conference games if they are off a straight up and ats win and have won 50 of their last 55 games here at home. West Virginia has failed to cover every time the past few years as a non conference dog of 7 or more points. This game also fits a solid game 4 system that plays against certain road teams that have won their first 3 games of the season and are now underdogs. Look for LSU to be too much to handle for West Virginia. Take LSU. On Saturday don't miss the 5* 100% NCAAF Game of the Month. This big play has a 47-6 system with a 100% subset. I also have 3 more top College plays from systems over 90% + an MLB Side system winner cashing 89%. The last 2 nights have cashed in Football. Look for more damage on Saturday.. For the free play tonight take LSU. BOL GCComment
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Re: 9-25-10
HRC NCAA PREMIUM-Saturday, September 25th
Capper: Robcat (Handicappers Paradise)
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2* Action (non-rated)
5* Selection
8* Premium
10* Premium
15* Diamond
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Selections:
[339] Oklahoma |5*|-14|B+0|Network N/A|@ 6:00 pm EST
[342] Arkansas |5*|+7|B+0|Metwork N/A|@ 3:30 pm EST
[348] Arizona |5*|-6.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 10:00 pm EST
[377] Baylor |5*|-7.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 8:00 pm ESTComment
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