9-26-10

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Re: 9-26-10

Vegas Sports Informer's


6 Unit Play. #410 Take New Orleans -4 over Atlanta (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept.26)

(Game of the Month) Little confused about this number and it's dropping as this number was -4 ½ when the number opened. New Orleans is always a tough town to steal a road victory and the Saints have covered 4 out of their last 5 home games. The Falcons are coming off a nice a home win against the Cardinals but these Cards are not the same Cards we have seen in the last 2-3 years. The Saints come home after a close Monday night win on the road in San Fran and with this short price at home the Saints continue to march to another home win. The Saints are 6-1 ATS in the month of September and the Falcons are 2-5 ATS in Week #3.

3 Unit Play. #413 Take Over 42 Detroit at Minnesota (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept. 26)

This week the offense of the Vikings explode! Minnesota has been struggling and it's been scoring points that has them 0-2. The Vikings have scored 19 points in two games but the bright side of this is that the Lions gave up 35 points last week to the Eagles. The Vikings are averaging 25.6ppg against the Lions in their last 5 meetings and Sunday afternoon the Vikings finally start scoring some TD's. Detroit is 4-1 O/U following a SU loss and the Vikings are 12-3-1 O/U after scoring 15 points or less in their last game.

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Re: 9-26-10

Jason Sharpe



6 Unit Play Take #424 Seattle +5.5 over San Diego (4:15 pm est):

NFL dogs have been barking loud and clear so far this season, especially home underdogs. Getting points in the NFL is huge. Home field advantage is also very important as both these teams have proved it so far by going 1-0 and in convincing fashion at home with the Seahawks crushing the 49ers in week 1 31-6 and the Chargers smashing the Jags in week 2 by a 38-13 score. I have went 2-0 so far this year backing home underdogs in the regular season of the NFL. In week one I had Pittsburgh and the points at home against Atlanta, a game they won outright and in week two I had the Jets also winning outright as my only home dog play for the week.

Seattle has quietly flew under the radar the first two games so far this year. They beat up the SF 49ers in week 1 of the season. It was a very good performance over a team many had high hopes for this year. The Niners came back and proved how good they can be by out playing the Super Bowl Champion Saints the following week in a heart breaking, turnover plagued loss. Seattle has always fit the home underdog image perfectly. They have covered 5 of the last 7 times in this role with a push also.

The key hidden fact about the Seahawks last game is was how well they actually did play for losing as badly as they did. The offense had no trouble moving the ball as they averaged over 6 yards per play in the game. The problem Seattle had was turning the ball over, losing the turnover battle 4-0. Losing the turnover edge in the NFL is a recipe for disaster, especially with how evenly matched the teams are these days.

The Chargers on the other hand have slipped of late coming into this year. You can see that this team isn't the dominant team it was in years past. They are slow starters under head coach Norv Turner and have just covered one of their last six times as a favorite. San Diego star running back is also hobbled with an ankle injury. The word is Matthews is doubtful for the game and with WR Vincent Jackson already out of this weeks lineup, this Chargers offense starts to look not nearly as strong as the ones in the past.

This is as tough a place to play in the NFL. Seattle is a much better team at home then on the road as going up to the great Northwest has never been a picnic for most teams. Now getting points with a team that has been moving the ball well against two defenses that were as good as SF and Denver were last year.

There are certain things one must look for when playing a home underdog in the NFL. If you can find out what that is it will be your most profitable angle in all of football betting. The Seahawks getting 5.5 points here fits what I am looking for from an NFL home underdog. Take Seattle plus the points in this one.

Thank you and good luck,

Jason Sharpe

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Re: 9-26-10

Strike Point Sports

3-Unit Play. Take Cleveland/Baltimore 'Under' 37 (1 p.m., Sunday, September 26)

Two offenses that haven't got going this season. Two defenses that can hold their own, notably the Ravens' unit being one of the best in the league. Not too much else to say. Take the under between two that normally combine for a low scoring game.

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Re: 9-26-10

Allen Eastman


4.5-Unit Play. Take #407 Cincinnati (-3) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 26)
Note: This play is from the 99 System.

The Bengals scored a big win against the Ravens last week and so far this year they have played two of the best teams in the league in the Patriots and Ravens. Now they get a chance to take on Carolina, which is really struggling. I think that Cincinnati's offense will finally find some room to maneuver against a Panthers defense that has looked just average through two games. And I think that Jimmy Clausen is going to have a lot of problems in his first start. He isn't ready to be an NFL starter and he doesn't have a lot to work with.

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Re: 9-26-10

Indian Cowboy's


4-Unit Play. Take #414. Take Minnesota Vikings -11 over the Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 1:00pm est).

You think Minnesota won't be fired up about this game? Brett Favre has listened to the fact all week he and the Vikings are 0-2 after starting out against the defending champs and a very good Miami Dolphins team. The Dolphins game was certainly one in which the Vikes could have won and this team is looking to rebound quickly and in a big way to silence the critics. Bear in mind that the Vikings have a bye week next week and will be looking to step up here so they can head over the long break with a win underneath their belts. Detroit looked great against Philly but still managed to put the game away. Also, note that 63% of the public favor the Lions here to keep it close, but they face a very good Vikings defense, at home, and a team that is desperate for a win. I look for the Vikings to win big here

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Re: 9-26-10

NFL DUNKEL

Cincinnati at Carolina
The Panthers look to bounce back from last week's 20-7 loss to Tampa Bay and build on their 11-5 ATS record in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. Carolina is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

Game 399-400: Tennessee at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 132.061; NY Giants 137.515
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 5 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3); Over

Game 401-402: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.960; New England 135.346
Dunkel Line: New England by 8 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+14 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 122.997; Baltimore 139.580
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 16 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10; 37
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-10); Over

Game 405-406: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.164; Tampa Bay 128.054
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 30
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 33
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-1); Under

Game 407-408: Cincinnati at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.037; Carolina 133.218
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Under

Game 409-410: Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 136.519; New Orleans 144.157
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over

Game 411-412: San Francisco at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 128.311; Kansas City 132.555
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

Game 413-414: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 118.401; Minnesota 141.101
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 22 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Dallas at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.452; Houston 137.765
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 417-418: Washington at St. Louis (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 132.744; St. Louis 123.030
Dunkel Line: Washington by 9 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Philadelphia at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.327; Jacksonville 129.696
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Under

Game 421-422: Indianapolis at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 138.804; Denver 127.343
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5 1/2); Over

Game 423-424: San Diego at Seattle (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.119; Seattle 131.801
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+5 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Oakland at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 120.878; Arizona 131.598
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-4); Under

Game 427-428: NY Jets at Miami (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.151; Miami 138.466
Dunkel Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Over

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Re: 9-26-10

NFL Week 3 analysis

Titans (1-1) @ Giants (1-1)-- After two weeks, 16 of 32 NFL teams are 1-1, eight are 0-2, eight are 2-0. First road game for Titan club that is 12-6-1 as road dog since 2006, and 20-7-1 vs NFC teams since '03. QB Young got benched in second half last week, in game where Titans turned ball over seven times after Pitt ran opening kick back for TD. Tennessee was just 2-6 vs spread last year in game following a loss (Giants were 2-5). Giants trailed both '10 games at the half; they're 12-14 as home favorite since '06. NFC East teams are already 1-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC South teams are 4-2.

Bills (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1)-- Underdogs are 8-1 vs spread in divisional games so far this season, but home side was underdog in seven of nine (home faves are 0-2 in divisional games). Patriots are 18-1 in last 19 series games, winning last 13 in row, but none of last four wins were by more than 13 points. Bills lost last nine visits here, with four of last five losses by 10 or less points. Pats didn't score in second half last week, have been outscored 39-14 in 2nd half of first two games- since '06, they're 9-13 as double digit favorite. Buffalo is 9-2 as road underdog in divisional games, since 2005.

Browns (0-2) @ Ravens (1-1)-- Over last 10 years, Ravens are 41-18-2 as a home favorite, 10-3 last two years. Baltimore defense didn't allow TD on first 24 drives in first two games, but did allow eight FGs; Flacco is just 37-77 as a passer so far- Raven offense has seven turnovers (-6) already. Cleveland led 14-10 at half in both games so far, then didn't score in second half either game, losing by 3-2 points. Ravens covered six of last seven as double digit favorite, Browns are 5-7 in last dozen as double digit dog. Ravens won last four series games by average score of 28-10, beating Browns 24-3/16-0 last season.

Steelers (2-0) @ Buccaneers (2-0)-- AFC teams were 5-1 vs NFC squads last week, are 6-2 this year. Pitt starting #4 QB Batch, with former #2 Leftwich in reserve. Bucs have six takeaways (+4) in 2-0 start; they've outscored first two opponents 13-0 in second half- they're 13-31 on 3rd down, moving chains well enough to win field position battle (+13/+9 in average starting field position). Steelers ran opening kick back for TD last week, then sat on lead, gaining 127 total yards in Nashville (only 21 passing). Bucs are 1-7 as home dog last two years. Since 2006, Steelers are 8-14 vs spread as a road favorite. Bucs are 6-2 in game before their bye the last eight years.

Bengals (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2)-- Took two games for Carolina to switch to rookie QB Clausen (7-13/59 yards last week) as starter. Panthers are 15-10-1 as home dog since 2000, but 5-7 vs spread vs AFC teams since '07, 4-8-1 as dog of 3 or less points since '06. Bengals didn't score TD in last week's win vs division rival Ravens, and haven't scored first half TD yet in 2010. Carolina is 13-9 vs spread in game following its last 22 losses; Bengals are 8-12 vs spread in game after last 20 wins. Cincy is 3-6 as favorite of 3 or less points since '07, 1-5 as road favorite in non-divisional games since 2--6.

Falcons (1-1) @ Saints (2-0)-- Short week for 2-0 Saints, who've run ball for only 129 yards on 49 carries in two games, and are now without Bush for 6-8 weeks (broken leg). Saints won seven of last eight in series, including last three by 4-8-3 points- average total in last five games is 53.4. Falcons lost last six games in Superdome (they beat Saints in San Antonio in '05)- they're 16-10 as road underdog since '06, but since 2000, are just 29-38-3 vs spread in the game following a loss. Since 2001, Saints are just 3-15 as home favorite in divisional games, but 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games as a single digit favorite.

49ers (0-2) @ Chiefs (2-0)-- Short week, long travel for 49er squad that since 2002, is just 2-7-1 vs spread as road favorite, but is 6-1-2 vs spread in games after their last nine losses. Niners have six turnovers (-5) in two games; its not often an NFL team loses when they're +4 in turnovers, like 49ers were against Saints Monday. Chiefs are 7-11 as home dog since '07, 5-8-1 vs spread as dog of 3 or less points- they've gained just 13.8 yards/point so far, thanks to TD's on punt return/defense in first two games. 49ers lost last meeting here 41-0 in '06. Chiefs lost game before their bye in four of last five years.

Lions (0-2) @ Vikings (0-2)-- Minnesota is 19-2 in last 21 series games, taking last five by average score of 26-12; Lions lost last 12 visits here, with only one of last five losses here by less than 9 points. Vikings have two TDs, turned it over five times in 21 drives; their offense was outscored by Miami defense last week. Minnesota is 6-3 in last nine games as home fave. Lions are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as double digit dog; since '06, they're 7-11-1 as road dog vs divisional opponents. Since '03, Vikings are 17-11 vs spread as home fave vs NFC North foes. Detroit lost first two games, but only by 5-3 points.

Cowboys (0-2) @ Texans (2-0)-- Dallas desperate for win after 0-2 start with bye looming; Cowboys are 6-1 in pre-bye game last seven years (3-0 as fave). Houston allowed 419/403 passing yards in first two games, so no excuse for Romo not to have big day; Dallas has two TD's, FG on its five red zone trips. Pokes ran ball only 42 times out of 142 plays in first two games, but seeing as how Houston struggled with pass defense, hard to see Cowboys running ball more here. Texans scored 44 2nd-half points in two games, rallying from down 20-7 last week to nip Redskins in OT. AFC South favorites are 4-1 vs spread in games outside division. NFC East underdogs are 0-3.

Redskins (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)-- Washington DC Haslett was Rams interim HC in '08. Skins are 7-3 in last ten series games, with last three decided either by 2 points or in OT; they're 4-1 in last five visits to this site. First road game for Washington team that hasn't turned ball over yet (+2). Rams are 7-14-1 as a home dog since '07; they've been dog in last 19 home games, but led first two games this year at half, before being outscored 20-10 in second half. Skins have only 107 rushing yards in two games. NFC West teams are 0-4 SU outside its division. NFC East teams are 1-5 vs spread outside its own division.

Eagles (1-1) @ Jaguars (1-1)-- Jags won all three series games; Philly lost two visits here, 38-21/28-25. Vick gets another start after 21-34/247 performance in Eagles' 35-32 (led 35-17 with 5:00 left) win last week at Detroit. Jags are 10-5 as home dog since 2005; they've allowed seven TDs in two games, three of which were on drives less than 60 yards. Philly has 312 rushing yards in its two games (Vick ran ball 8 times for 37 yards last week). Eagles are 5-2 in last seven games as road favorite, but since 2002, 12-20 vs spread when playing AFC teams. AFC South teams are 4-2 vs spread in non-divsional games.

Colts (1-1) @ Broncos (1-1)-- Indy won last four series games by average of 37-23; they're 9-3 as road favorite since '08- since '01, they're 17-7-1 as a road fave in non-divisional games. Broncos were outrushed 243-154 in first couple games, with favorite covering both. Denver is 6-3 as home dog since '02. AFC South favorites are 4-1 vs spread in non-division games. Indy won two of last three visits here, with both wins by a FG. League-wide, home dogs are 3-2 this season in non-divisional games. Colt defense allowed 377 rushing yards in first two games- they allowed 13 points in first half, 35 after halftime.

Chargers (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)-- Seattle backup QB Whitehurst was with San Diego last couple years; his knowledge could help here, vs Charger club that is is 3-6 as road fave since '08; they lost five of last six games to former division rival Seahawks, with last five in series all decided by 3 or less points. Bolts lost five of last seven visits here. Seattle is 6-3 as home underdog since '06, 8-13-1 as single digit underdog. NFC West teams are 0-4 SU outside their own weak division. AFC teams are 6-2 vs NFC this year. Seattle rush defense has only allowed 114 yards on 57 carries in its two games so far this season.

Raiders (1-1) @ Cardinals (1-1)-- Gradkowski gets start at QB for Oakland as result of his rallying Raiders in second half last week; Oakland won both of its trips to Arizona, but last one was in '02. Cards have serious QB issues; they're 40-74 for 415 passing yards in two games, with seven turnovers (-2), and are 5-21 on third down conversions. Raiders have only two offensive TDs so far, but have kicked five FGs. This is home opener for Arizona squad that is 13-11 as home favorite since '05; Raiders are 3-14 vs spread in NFC games since '06. Redbirds have run ball 34 times out of 112 plays; they need better balance.

Jets (1-1) @ Dolphins (2-0)-- Home opener for Miami squad that is 2-0 so far this year, allowing two TDs on foes' 23 drives, holding Edwards/Favre to 3.1/ 5.3 yards/attempt, but Fish are 5-24 as a home favorite since '03. Miami won last three series games, with home side losing four of last five. Jets won three of last four visits here- their WR Edwards is expected to play despite his DUI arrest earlier this week. First road game for Gang Green squad that is 14-8 as road dog since '06; in two games this year, Jets outscored opponents 21-3 and have outrushed opponents 252-101. Can Sanchez hit big plays on the road?

Packers (2-0) @ Bears (2-0)-- Home side won four of last five Chicago-Green Bay games; Packers are 2-3 in last five visits here, with average total in those games 34.6. Bears have six takeaways in two games (+2); when Martz offense doesn't turn ball over, they score points. Chicago is only NFL team to average 9+ yards/pass attempt in both of its first two games. Bears are 14-10 as home dog since 2002, 4-1 as divisional home dog since '04; Packers are 9-3 as a road favorite since 2007. So far this season, home underdogs in divisional games are 6-1 against the spread. Bear defense allowed 56 yards in 41 rushes in first two games this season, but their offense converted just 7 of 25 on third down.

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Re: 9-26-10

Norm Hitzges

NFL
Double Plays

Minnesota -11.5 vs Detroit

Baltimore -10.5 vs Cleveland

New England -14 vs Buffalo

San Francisco -2.5 vs KC



Single

Philadelphia -3 vs Jacksonville

Cincinnati -3 vs Carolina

Atlanta +4 vs New Orleans

Washington -3.5 vs St. Louis

Carolina/Cincinnati Under 38

Arizona/Oakland Under 39.5

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Re: 9-26-10

Indian Cowboy's


4-Unit Play. Take #414. Take Minnesota Vikings -11 over the Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 1:00pm est).

You think Minnesota won't be fired up about this game? Brett Favre has listened to the fact all week he and the Vikings are 0-2 after starting out against the defending champs and a very good Miami Dolphins team. The Dolphins game was certainly one in which the Vikes could have won and this team is looking to rebound quickly and in a big way to silence the critics. Bear in mind that the Vikings have a bye week next week and will be looking to step up here so they can head over the long break with a win underneath their belts. Detroit looked great against Philly but still managed to put the game away. Also, note that 63% of the public favor the Lions here to keep it close, but they face a very good Vikings defense, at home, and a team that is desperate for a win. I look for the Vikings to win big here






4-Unit Play. Take #426. Take Arizona Cardinals -4.5 over Oakland Raiders (Sunday, September 26th @ 4:15pm est).
The Raiders are a decent team. I'm not knocking them here, but bear in mind that Arizona is a very well coached team that just got spanked by my Falcons at home by a score of 7-41. The Cardinals had won on the road at St. Louis prior to that. Without a doubt, this is a rebuilding year for the Cardinals, but I certainly do think that this team has the talent, in particular on the defense side of the ball to pull the cover here. This is a home opener for Arizona and I look for this team to come together after the tough loss at Atlanta. The Raiders come off a nice win against the Rams at home, but I can see them having a let down here on the road as their last road game against Tennessee didn't pan out when they lost 13-38. I look for Arizona to bounce-back big this weekend.

4-Unit Play. Take #428. Take the Miami Dolphins -2.5 over the New York Jets (Sunday, September 26th @ 8:20pm est).
If you remember, Miami actually swept the Jets last year. And, the Dolphins have only gotten better this year. With a group of players that are very well coached, and have a lot of heart, the Dolphins open the year at 2-0. They face a good Jets team with a lot of distractions off the field and some injuries to play as well. More importantly, the Dolphins are the better team in my opinion, with a better offense, a comparable defense and at the end of the day, frankly, I think with better coaching. I look for the Dolphins here to get fired up on Sunday Night Football and win this game in front of their faithful as do note, Miami is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the AFC East.

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Re: 9-26-10

Craig Masters "Football Frenzy"

Eagles -3

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Re: 9-26-10

HRC NFL PREMIUM-Sunday, September 26th

Capper: ***** (Handicappers Paradise)

*******************************
Selections:
[402] New England |Open Line|B+0|Network N/A|@ 1:00 pm EST

[428] Miami |Open Line|B+0|Network N/A|@ 8:20 pm EST

*Note
Official line will be posted Sunday prior to each game for documentation purposes

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Re: 9-26-10

Bestpicks

Ravens -10

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Re: 9-26-10

Colin Cowherd

Atlanta
Dallas
Indianapolis
Baltimore

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Re: 9-26-10

Sports Reporter Midweek Update:

NFL Best Bets, Atlanta +4, Houston-3