10-2-10

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Re: 10-2-10

Lenn Robbins

OKLAHOMA ST (-3) over Texas A&M: Aggies struggled against Florida International and this is their first road game. Cowboys have the nation's most potent offense. And you know we usually love the Thursday night home team.

ARMY (+5½) over Temple: The Owls are coming off a physically and emotionally draining loss at Penn State. They have one week to prepare for option football and will not be firing on all cylinders.

ILLINOIS (+17½) over Ohio St.: Ohio State always has one Big Ten letdown game, like in 2007, when the Illini upset the then No.1-ranked Buckeyes.

VIRGINIA (+7) over Fsu: Noles miss wakeup call for noon game -- all of them. Sheer talent advantage pulls out win but new Virginia coach Mike London, a rising star, is lauded for how well he has the Cavs playing.

CLEMSON (+3½) over Miami: Tigers have had two weeks to get healthy and get mean after letting a win at Auburn slip away. Miami QB Jacory Harris has thrown six picks this season.

RUTGERS (-17) over Tulane: The Scarlet Knights' defense is for real and we're betting QB Tom Savage is ready to bust out of his sophomore slump.

LSU (-16) over Tennessee: Although we vowed never to pick a Les Miles-coached LSU team, the Vols have yet to play a road game and they're 69th in total defense. And they're coached by Derek Dooley, so that evens the field.

Oklahoma (-3½) over Texas (in Dallas): Usually we go with the team coming off the stunning loss, which is Texas. But we're going with the much more proven QB in Landry Jones.

Michigan (-10) over INDIANA: Denard Robinson, who leads the world in rushing, is expected to play, and Indiana, having played no one of note, is 92nd in the nation in rushing defense.

N.C. STATE (+4) over Virginia Tech: The sleeper team in the ACC this season is N.C. State, led by New Jersey LB Nate Irving, who reminds offenses each week how happy he is to be alive after nearly dying in a car crash.

Notre Dame (-2½) over BC: The Eagles will break in a new starting QB in Chase Rettig, whose one late mistake gives the Irish the cover.

ALABAMA (-8) over Florida: You're all caught up in Trey Burton fever, the Gators freshman who scored six touchdowns last week at home against Kentucky. For God's sake, man, pull yourself together. That was Kentucky in The Swamp. This is Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

IOWA (-7) over Penn State: Someone must explain why Penn State remains in the Top 25 without a quality win? Nittany Lions haven't won in Iowa City since 1999.

Stanford (+7) over OREGON: Autzen Stadium might be the toughest venue in the Pac 10, but the Ducks gave up 597 yards to Arizona State. Stanford is better on both sides of the ball. Ducks win but barely.

LAST WEEK: 12-3 overall; 2-1 best bets

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Re: 10-2-10

Strike Point Sports
6-unit Big Ten Game of the Month

IOWA

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Re: 10-2-10

SB Professor

Heard he now has a total club.....anyone see it?

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Re: 10-2-10

DOC College Game of the Year
7* Iowa

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Re: 10-2-10

BRUCE MARSHALL COLLEGE FB SELECTIONS (Goldsheet)

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 2

VANDERBILT (+7 1/2) over UConn -home 9:00 AM PDT

EAST CAROLINA (+14) over North Carolina -home 12:30 PM PDT (time change)

TULANE (+17) over Rutgers -home 11:30 AM PDT (time change)

NAVY (+10) over Air Force -home 11:30 AM PDT

NOTRE DAME (-2 1/2) over Boston College -home 5:00 PM PDT (time change)

UCLA (-27) -home over Washington State 12:30 PM PDT

FLORIDA (+9) over Alabama -home 5:00 PM PDT

HAWAII (-8 1/2) -home over La Tech 8:30 PM PDT

"UNDER" 45 1/2 points NOTRE DAME at BOSTON COLLEGE 5:30 PM PDT (time change)

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Re: 10-2-10

Payne Sports

Early Riser Clemson +3.5 for 8 units

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Re: 10-2-10

Rocky Sheridan

5* Penn St/Iowa OVER 41
7* Georgia -4
5* Clemson +3.5
5* Virginia +7

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Re: 10-2-10

The Sports Network


Texas Tech (2-1) at Iowa State (2-2)

DATE & TIME: Saturday, October 2nd, 7:00 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Jack Trice Stadium (50,000) -- Ames, Iowa. Television:FCS. Home Record: TTU 1-1, ISU 2-0. Away Record: TTU 1-0, ISU 0-1. Neutral Record: TTU 0-0, ISU 0-1. Conference Record: TTU 0-1, ISU 0-1. Series Record: Texas Tech leads, 7-1.

GAME NOTES: The Texas Tech Red Raiders will try to bounce back from their first loss of the season, as they take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Big 12 play this weekend at Jack Trice Stadium.

The Raiders were idle this past weekend following a 24-14 home loss to then fourth-ranked Texas in their Big 12 opener on September 18th. It was TTU's first defeat under head coach Tommy Tuberville, whose club opened the campaign with wins over SMU (35-27) and New Mexico (52-17).

On the other side, the Cyclones took on instate foe Northern Iowa last weekend and blanked the FCS program by a 27-0 score. It marked ISU's first shutout since posting a 24-0 victory over Northern Iowa in 2004. The Cyclones are now a level 2-2, with one of their losses coming to Kansas State (27-20) in league play.

As for the all-time series, TTU has won seven of the eight prior meetings with ISU and that includes a 42-17 triumph in the last encounter in 2007.

The Raiders managed a mere 144 total yards of offense last game versus Texas, marking their lowest production since 1990. QB Taylor Potts simply could not get going, as he completed 21-of-35 pass attempts for 158 yards, with one TD against two INTs. It was obviously a tough game for Potts, who had thrown seven TDs with no picks in the first two games. Lyle Leong has clearly been his target of choice, as he leads the team with 20 receptions for 251 yards and six scores. That in includes a 34-yard, one TD performance against Texas. The Raiders though, need to be more than one dimensional if they are to improve, as they are averaging a mere 2.5 yards per carry this season. That simply won't get the job done over the long haul.

TTU has a talented defense that has really made some big plays, forcing 11 turnovers and recording 12 sacks in just three games. The unit has been especially tough against the run, limiting foes to just 99.7 ypg on the ground. The defense did its job versus Texas, surrendering only 320 total yards while coming up with four takeaways. Jarvis Phillips even scored for the defense, returning a pick 87 yards to paydirt. He finished with two INTs and now has four for the season. Brian Duncan had a sack and a TFL in the loss, as he leads the team in both departments with five sacks and six TFLs on the year.

Quarterback Austen Arnaud re-injured his shoulder early in last weekend's game and gave way to Jerome Tiller, who guided ISU to a victory over Northern Iowa. While Tiller didn't exactly light it up with only 87 passing yards on 11-of-22 attempts, he did avoid any turnovers, something that has plagued Arnaud in his three years as a starter. Arnaud is listed as questionable, so Tiller may just get the start anyway. If that is the case, expect ISU to lean heavily on RB Alexander Robinson, who has rushed for 301 yards and three scores. Robinson had 74 yards and a score on 15 carries last weekend and should see an even bigger increase in his touches against a much tougher opponent.

ISU turned in a terrific defensive performance last weekend, as the unit not only limited Northern Iowa to 320 total yards, but it also forced five turnovers. Two of those takeaways resulted in TDs, as A.J. Klein returned an INT 25 yards for a score, while Jeremy Reeves had a 94-yard return. It was the first time ISU had two defensive TDs in a game since facing Colorado in 2005. It was also the second straight game in which Klein returned an INT for a score. Klein even tops the defense, which is giving up just 143.8 passing ypg, with 41 stops.

With an extra week to prepare, the Raiders should have a good gameplan heading into this weekend and that will help them get past an ISU club that could have a QB controversy on its hands.

Texas Tech 30 Iowa State 17



Virginia Tech (2-2) at (23) NC State (4-0)

GAME NOTES: The Virginia Tech Hokies are starting to regain their swagger and they will try to continue their recent run by upsetting the 23rd-ranked NC State Wolfpack in ACC play this weekend at Carter-Finley Stadium.

The Hokies entered the season with their usual high expectations and a No. 10 ranking, but found themselves outside of the Top 25 after just a couple of weeks. A tough 33-30 loss to third-ranked Boise State to open the season wasn't the problem, it was a stunning 21-16 home loss to James Madison, a FCS program, the following week that raised a bunch of concerns. Tech though, responded with a 49-27 victory over East Carolina before posting a 19-0 shutout over Boston College last weekend in its ACC opener.

"Bud [Foster] and those guys are good at knowing what's going on," Tech head coach Frank Beamer said of his coordinator and defense. "They were good in the second half, but I thought they were good all day."

It marked the Hokies' first shutout in 45 games dating back to a 17-0 blanking of Virginia in 2006, as Tech appears ready to fulfill expectations.

NC State meanwhile, is enjoying a terrific start, as the program is 4-0 for the first time since opening the 2002 campaign with nine straight victories. The team most recently got its ACC schedule underway, coming away with a 45-28 victory over Georgia Tech last weekend.

"It certainly was a good day for us, and I'm very happy for our football team'" stated head coach Tom O'Brien. "Everybody contributed to what we wanted to get done. We couldn't have done this without a lot of effort on a lot of people's parts."

This is the 48th meeting between Virginia Tech and NC State in a series that dates back to 1900. The Hokies lead the series, 25-18-4, and that includes a 38-10 victory in Blacksburg last season.

Offensively, the Hokies did enough to beat BC last weekend, but the unit was average at best. Tech managed a modest 343 total yards and scored just one TD in four trips to the red zone.

"We didn't put up as many touchdowns as I would have liked," said QB Tyrod Taylor. "We didn't capitalize in the red zone."

Taylor though, displayed improved accuracy in the win, as he completed 16- of-21 tosses for 237 yards. A dual-threat typically, Taylor didn't rush for many yards last weekend, but he still leads the team with 201 for the season.

Speaking of the ground attack, which is averaging 180.2 ypg, it was minus starter Ryan Williams last weekend. Williams, who has a team-high three rushing TDs, was out with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for this weekend. David Wilson and Darren Evans shared the load in relief of Williams and they combined for 97 yards and a score.

Tech's defense was obviously impressive last weekend, holding BC to just 250 total yards in a shutout effort. The Hokies have now gone five straight quarters without allowing a score, as this young defense appears to be coming together.

"I honestly think we're starting to come around as a defense," said end Steven Friday, who had a nice game with two sacks, two tackles for a loss and two forced fumbles. "If we play our game from this point out, I think we'll be fine."

The Hokies added three takeaways and six sacks to their performance. They had just six sacks in the first three games combined. Bruce Taylor and Friday did most of the damage with two sacks and three TFLs apiece. Friday tops the roster with four sacks for the year, while Taylor has three sacks, to go with team highs of 32 stops and 9.5 TFLs.

QB Russell Wilson threw for a career-best 368 yards and three TDs, as NC State gained 527 total yards in a victory over Georgia Tech last weekend. He also added a TD on the ground.

"We talked about it the day he got back to school, what his goals and aspirations are, and we got together and worked it out. And I think it showed. A week ago on Thursday night and again today, and that's the Russell we're used to seeing. He's going to continue to get a lot better," said O'Brien.

It was certainly another strong performance for Wilson, who is averaging 278.0 passing ypg, with 11 TDs against just one INT.

Wilson has also done a nice job of spreading the wealth, as five players have caught double-digit passes thus far. The backfield even has a couple of nice options in Mustafa Greene and Dean Haynes, who have rushed for 242 and 213 yards, respectively. Though they are inconsistent at times, the duo showed up last weekend and combined for 143 yards and a score in the win over GT.

Facing an option attack is never easy, so holding Georgia Tech to 247 rushing yards was somewhat of a solid effort from the NC State defense last weekend.

"To keep them under 250 yards rushing is a great day," stated O'Brien.

Even with those yards allowed, NC State still only giving up 125.8 ypg on the ground this season and opponents are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. The Wolfpack have also come up with nine takeaways and 14 sacks, as the unit has more than held its own. Nate Irving, who missed all of last season with injuries following a car accident, appeared back to form last game, finishing with 16 tackles, 4.5 TFLs and two sacks. It was a remarkable performance by Irving, who now tops the club with 26 stops for the year.

Virginia Tech has regained its confidence, but now runs into a red-hot NC State squad. With the support of their home crowd and another big game from Wilson, expect the Wolfpack to pull out the win this weekend.

NC State 30 Virginia Tech 24



Kansas (2-2) at Baylor (3-1)

DATE & TIME: Saturday, October 2nd, 12:00 p.m. (et).

FACTS & STATS: Site: Floyd Casey Stadium (50,000) -- Waco, Texas. Television: FSN. Home Record: Kansas 2-1, Baylor 2-0. Away Record: Kansas 0-1, Baylor 1-1. Neutral Record: Kansas 0-0, Baylor 0-0. Conference Record: Kansas 0-0, Baylor 0-0. Series Record: Baylor leads, 5-4.

GAME NOTES: The Kansas Jayhawks aim for a victory in their Big 12 Conference opener for a fourth straight season, as they head to Floyd Casey Stadium in Waco to take on the Baylor Bears.

Kansas finally got its offense going in last weekend's 42-16 win over New Mexico State. The Jayhawks have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team thus far, having lost to North Dakota State and Southern Miss, and beating 15th-ranked Georgia Tech. Following this tilt, KU returns home for its next two games.

Baylor rebounded from a lopsided loss at fifth-ranked TCU by knocking off Rice last weekend, 30-13. The Bears have won only three league openers since joining the Big 12. They are 2-0 at home after opening the season with wins over Sam Houston State and Buffalo.

Baylor has a 5-4 edge over Kansas in the head-to-head series, and four of those wins have come in Waco.

Kansas enters this tilt ranked 82nd in the nation in both total offense (347 ypg) and scoring offense (22.2 ppg). If it weren't for last week's 42-point outburst against New Mexico State, the Jayhawks would be even closer to the bottom of the barrel in both categories. The Jayhawks posted a season-best 501 yards against NMSU, and that total also included a season-high 237 rushing yards. James Sims ran for 115 yards and two TDs on 16 carries, while all- purpose back D.J. Beshears had three total touchdowns (two rushing, one return). Redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan Webb threw for a season-high 249 yards and a touchdown on 11-of-17 accuracy.

The Kansas defense has also seemingly showed up with a different unit from week to week. Two weeks ago, the Jayhawks couldn't contain Southern Miss in a 31-16 loss. Last week, they put the clamps on NMSU, allowing just 275 total yards and 16 points. One area that has been fairly consistent is the pass defense. The Jayhawks enter this week ranked fifth in the nation in pass defense with an average of only 128.5 yards per game allowed through the air. It warrants noting that Kansas hasn't faced a litany of offensive powerhouses, and although the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were nationally ranked at the time, they also run an option-based offense.

Baylor's matchup with Rice last week was suspended for an hour in the second quarter due to thunderstorms in the area. Somehow that stoppage seemed to light a fire under the Bears, who scored on each of their last three first- half possessions after play resumed and took a 20-3 lead into the break. Robert Griffin passed for 268 yards and three touchdowns, as Baylor out-gained Rice, 456-296 in total yards. Kendall Wright finished with seven catches for 106 yards and a touchdown. On the season, Griffin is completing 59.1 percent of his passes while averaging 242.8 passing yards per game. He has thrown eight touchdowns and only two interceptions, and he has also scored three times on the ground.

Defensively, Baylor held Rice to just 296 total yards. The Owls managed just 2.9 yards per carry as a team, while quarterback Nick Fanuzzi averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt passing. He was also intercepted twice and sacked three times by the Baylor defense. The Bears currently rank 19th in the nation in pass efficiency defense (105.05), although opposing QBs are completing a high percentage of passes against them. Fanuzzi made good on 27-of-38 attempts (71 percent) for 201 yards last week. A week earlier, TCU signal-caller Andy Dalton completed a ridiculous 21-of-23 (91 percent) passes for 267 yards and two scores. Kansas' Webb doesn't have gaudy statistics as a redshirt freshman, but the Bears don't want him to get comfortable in the pocket. Look for BU defensive coordinator Brian Norwood to mix up different looks to try and confuse Webb into some errant throws.

If the first four weeks of the season are any indication, Kansas is due for a clunker after routing New Mexico State a week ago. The Jayhawks have yet to beat Baylor in Waco in the series, and that trend is likely to continue.

Baylor 31 Kansas 16

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Re: 10-2-10

SB Professor

12 PM EST

Eastern Michigan +10.5*

Vanderbilt +8
Minnesota +6
Army +6
Kansas +10
Miami Ohio +3.5
Virginia +7

3:30 PM EST

Indiana +10.5*

Navy +10
Michigan St. +2

7:00 PM EST

Rice +13*

Duke +9
Wake Forest +10.5
Iowa St. +7.5
Memphis +10
Boston College +3
Florida +8
Marshall +10
Penn St. +7.5
Washington +10
Stanford +7.5


11:30 PM EST

Louisiana Tech +9*


Reloaded:

As always, picks are against the pointspread and not just to win outright. Saturday's NCAA Picks:

12 PM EST

Vanderbilt +8*

Minnesota +6

Temple -6

Virginia +7

7 PM EST

Colorado +5*

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Re: 10-2-10

Moneymaker


FLORIDA +8 OVER ALABAMA
Revenge as a concept is overrated in every sport, but particularly in college football. The notion that teams that lost a
game in a previous year ‘circle’ the next year’s meeting against that opponent just isn’t borne out in reality. In this
game, however, we’ve got a made to order revenge spot for Florida. There’s a couple of other factors working in the
Gators’ favor as well—the sports media and the betting public has a tendency to overreact to individual performances
and ever since Florida’s offense struggled in their opening game the conventional wisdom is that this is a ‘down year’
for the Gators. While they’ve taken more time to put their offensive house in order in the post Tim Tebow era that I
would have expected, things are in decent shape now as evidenced by a solid victory over a decent Kentucky team last
week. The last few times that Alabama has played Florida they’ve had the proverbial ‘chip on their shoulder’ but things
are different this year—they’re no longer ‘the hunter’ they’re ‘the hunted’. Florida now has a big play performer on
offense in freshman Trey Burton who broke Tebow’s school record by scoring six touchdowns against Kentucky. Alabama
has put together an exceptional program under Nick Saban, but it’s not like Florida isn’t in their league. This is
the first time the Gators have been underdogs in several years, and that’s a situation they should respond well to.
We’ll call for the outright upset, but at the very worst Florida keeps this one close.
FLORIDA BY 3 OVER ALABAMA

MIAMI -3 OVER CLEMSON
We’ve made the mistake of underestimating this Miami team before this season, but we’re not going to make that mistake
again. They looked flat out dominant against Pittsburgh last week and clearly demonstrated that they’re ready to
win on the road. Now they’re in another tough road venue but this is a game where the concept of revenge should be
effective. Clemson pulled a big OT upset at Miami last year, but these programs have headed in different direction since
then. We respect the fact that the Tigers have shown they can compete in this price range (3-0 L3 years as underdogs
of +3’ to +10) but in this game we look for an improving Hurricane side to pull out a solid win over a banged up home
team.
MIAMI BY 10 OVER CLEMSON

GEORGIA -4 OVER COLORADO
In many ways, this spot is similar to the Utah State/BYU matchup at the top of this page. Georgia is in something of a
‘down year’ and is taking their lumps against some of the SEC foes they would have beaten in years past. The Bulldogs
enter having lost three straight—to South Carolina and Mississippi State on the road and a very good Arkansas team at
home—but there’s still a huge gap in terms of the quality of these two programs. Mark Richt remains one of the best
coaches in college football, while Dan Hawkins is still at Colorado only because the school couldn’t afford to buy him out
of his contract. Another similarity to BYU/Utah State is that Georgia is an excellent program that currently lacks the requisite
playmakers on a young team. That in no way should be mistaken for a qualitative atrophy in this program which
still ranks among the best in the country. This game isn’t an ‘upset opportunity’ for an overmatched home game, but
rather an opportunity for Georgia to step down in class and regain some confidence before three winnable SEC games
against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Tennessee. Since 1993 Georgia is a spectacular 14-1 SU/13-2 ATS after two or more
SU losses and against a far inferior opponent than they see on a weekly basis in the SEC they’ll add to those impressive
numbers.
GEORGIA BY 18 OVER COLORADO

[spook]

Re: 10-2-10

The Sports Reporter

BEST BET
*IOWA over PENN STATE by 20
Tough spot for PSU as they come off of a hard fought win over in-state Temple, while
the Hawkeyes got rest for their starters last week in a route of Ball State. JoePa’s
true frosh QB Bolden has already played a tough roadie at Bama, but that experience
won’t make this game any easier. Iowa has a tremendous run defense that will force
the youngster to make plays with his arm. The kid has talent, but you can’t expect
him to dissect a good secondary on the road with Iowa’s front seven in his face. Plus,
Penn State starting right tackle Eliades went down last week with a knee injury so
they are one man short. Look for Iowa to soften the Lions’ defense with the run, then
to allow QB Stanzi to pick on a young secondary. With a bye on deck, the home team
will pour everything they have into to the pitcher for this Big 10 opener. IOWA, 27-7.


BEST BET
ARIZONA STATE over *OREGON STATE by 10
File this money-maker under the “Perception vs. Reality” category. The final score of
Oregon State’s prime-time battle with Boise St. was respectable; a 37-24 loss. In
reality – it wasn’t that close. The Beavers had only 237 yards to Boise’s 469, but OSU
benefitted from a punt return TD and a defensive TD. ASU on the other hand outgained
Oregon in the late night game 597 to 405, yet swallowed a 42-31 loss. The
Sun Devils outplayed the Ducks, but they were pitch forked by seven turnovers and
two Oregon defensive TDs. As for this Saturday, the Sun Devils are the better team.
QB Threet has thrown the ball very well and the Devils have some nice young running
backs that will find room against a below average defense. The Beavers’
offense goes as RB Jacquizz Rodgers goes, but they’ve been unable to get the running
game going. ASU mans a nice defense that kept shifty Oregon RB James under
wraps last week. ARIZONA STATE, 31-21.


BEST BET
TULSA over *MEMPHIS by 24
There appears to be no D in Tulsa, where the secondary (and the schedule matchups
against opponents that have scored 30+, 50+ and 60+ vs. other teams) is the
main culprit. However, Memphis struggles to get to 300 offensive yards. Is Memphis
a home dog with the better defense? Not necessarily. Their last two games have
come against an opponent that spent last season punting a lot and was playing without
its #1 QB, then against an opponent whose offensive playbook was exposed to
them by their own offensive coordinator, a spawn of the UTEP head coach and former
UTEP offensive coordinator. At 27 first downs per game, Tulsa’s ability to move
the ball in September bodes well for continuity in that department in this particular
match-up, and their defense will welcome the class drop from the offenses of East
Carolina, Oklahoma State and Bowling Green. They got some confidence back by
holding unbeaten Central Arkansas (try not to snicker) to 21 points less than their
average last Saturday. TULSA, 45-21.

BEST BET
*BAYLOR over KANSAS by 24
The Kansas offense faced some pretty cheesey defenses in their non-conference
action: An FCS foe, Georgia Tech’s Groh-ing Pains, Southern Miss’ Run Fast and Pray
Somebody Runs Into Us Brigade, and New Mexico State’s Barely There Bunch. While
Baylor isn’t necessarily known for its defense, a schemed-up 3-4 Bears stop unit figures
to be the toughest assignment yet – by a big margin -- for Kansas’ wet-behindthe-
ears quarterbacks, who had combined to “generate” only 4.0 yards per offensive
play before the New Mexico State softie. Getting called for 8 penalties on their home
field against New Mexico State was not a good sign for Kansas, because the unit will
be stressed to keep pace with a Baylor offense difficult for ordinary defenses to contain
because of QB Griffin’s ability to get to the edge and get upfield, along with his
improved passing. Baylor’s passing game is good enough for coach Briles to be saying,
“We want to run the ball a little better,” when they’re already running the ball
quite well, with a pair of change-of-pace running backs and Griffin as the dreaded
“extra running back.” BAYLOR, 38-14.


RECOMMENDED
*MINNESOTA over NORTHWESTERN by 5
Buy low. How low? How about Minnesota being off three straight home losses and
“Fire Brewster” chants? Now, that’s pretty low. Revenge-seeking visitor was even in
offensive yardage vs. the Gophers last season, but -2 in Turnover Ratio in 35-24 loss.
Northwestern’s defense seems to get better the longer DC Mike Hankwitz’ tenure
gets, but the offense puts too many balls in the air to feel comfortable about when
the schedule presents them with opposing defenses who have experience trapping
the squirrels. Visiting QB Dan Persa is way up high in the national pass efficiency
rankings early in the season, which means he has nowhere to go but down during
Big Ten play as conference defenses target the pass and allow the Wildcats their little
squirrel nuggets of rushing yardage, currently being picked up at 3.2 yards per
carry. Minnesota spent September in what was, for them, their best attempt at getting
physical, rushing for about 90% more rushing yards per game than last year’s
average. MINNESOTA, 24-19.


RECOMMENDED
TCU over *COLORADO STATE by 42
CSU snapped a 12-game losing streak last week with a last second field goal vs.
Idaho. Idaho. This is TCU. Before their win last week, the Rams knew they couldn’t
beat the nation’s 4th ranked team…now that they won….they just won’t care as
much when they get smoked. The win here for TCU isn’t important…it’s expected.
What is important is that the game isn’t close or else they’ll lose some BCS Buster
street cred. Colorado State puts each game in the hands of their freshman QB Pete
Thomas, who has done a pretty good job albeit against some pretty weak defenses.
TCU held passing guru June Jones’ QB’s to a 14-for-35 performance last week.
Needless to say,Mr. Thomas will not have a fun day. Offensively, the balanced Horned
Frogs’ offense will have no problem slicing through one of the worst defenses that
D-1 has to offer. TCU, 52-10.


RECOMMENDED
*VIRGINIA over FLORIDA STATE by 2
Good time for UVA to take on the ‘Noles – right after FSU’s revenge game with Wake
and right before their matchup with Miami-FL. Virginia played the Virginia Military
Institute last week so they’ve effectively had two weeks to prepare for this big home
game. FSU has thrived this year with their pressure defense, racking up 19 sacks
and keeping their last two opponents under 200 yards. The Cavs are no offensive
juggernaut, but they do rank in the top third nationally in rushing and passing yards
per game. With the extra week to prepare, the UVA coaching staff will mitigate the
Seminole pressure and will take this one down to the wire. VIRGINIA, 22-20.


RECOMMENDED
*ARMY over TEMPLE by 6
Too many valiant, four-quarter efforts in a row (four) for Temple. With a MAC roadie
on deck at Northern Illinois, this non-conference road game means nothing for
Temple’s chances of winning the MAC, and their defense will not be asked to defend
a run-based triple option for the rest of the regular season after this game. Army’s
blind mice controlled the clock for 31:59 in last year’s game, shooting themselves in
the foot while doing it (14 penalties, a lost fumble on their own 1-yard-line). That, all
too often, has been the Army way – death by friendly fire. Their poor, underrated
defense hits hard enough to have knocked Temple’s bell-cow RB Pierce out of the
game last year and allow Temple’s offense only 195 total yards. Game was tied 13-
13 entering the fourth quarter, when Army’s will to lose asserted itself. However,
teams do gradually evolve away from killing themselves, and Army’s offense is doing
something very different in 2010 – putting points on the board. So far, 31, 28, 24, 35
points, from the unit that closed last season scoring only 10, 16, 16, 13, 10, 7, 22,
17 and 3. ARMY, 23-17.

[spook]

Re: 10-2-10

Winning Points


****BEST BET
TEXAS TECH over IOWA STATE* by 27
If ever there was a team that truly needed an early-season bye week it was Tommy
Tuberville and his Red Raiders, who suffered more than just a 24-14 loss to Texas,
but a rather humbling ego experience in which the offense was held to its lowest
output since 1990. But this is a team loaded with talent, and has an excellent
coaching staff to navigate such stormy seas, and that means an ideal time to step
in with them on a week in which they will curry little public favor. The down time
can be particularly effective as a new staff learns the players better, which means a
chance to tweak the playbook, and Tuberville knew how to approach it - "We selfscouted
ourselves, looked at the mistakes we made in all three games and things we
need to get better at, so we'll use this week in terms of a three-day, four-day spring
practice." That is bad news for the Cyclones. This will be the first go-round for
Paul Rhoads against this passing attack, and it is not as though the players can offer
many hints; they last saw Tech in a 42-17 rout in Lubbock back in 2007. While
Baron Burch could not get untracked vs. Texas, he is going to bring a serious run
dimension over the course of the season. Keep in mind that even in the loss to the
Longhorns the Red Raiders only allowed 320 yards and came up with four TO’s,
and that vastly improved unit already has 11 takeaways through 12 quarters, and
if Austen Arnaud is not able to go at QB it makes the State prep problematic on
both sides of the ball. TEXAS TECH 41-14.

***BEST BET
HAWAII* over LOUISIANA TECH by 27
We did not get the money bucking Louisiana Tech near the top of this page last
week, with Southern Miss failing to put the game away after leading 13-3 into the
fourth quarter. But we saw much of what we expected from the Bulldogs, who continue
to have their feet firmly planted on Square One in terms of learning the
Sonny Dykes/Tony Franklin passing schemes. It was going to be a difficult enough
of a transition from the pro sets that Derek Dooley had been running, especially
since most of the recruits were brought in to play that style, but the constant Tech
shuffling at QB has exasperated hopes of building an offensive chemistry. Steve
Ensminger, who was sitting #1 on the depth chart for most of fall practice, has yet
to throw a pass, and instead if has been Colby Cameron, Ross Jenkins and Tarik
Hakmi all seeing action, with no real success. For the season the group has more
than twice as many INT’s (seven) as TD passes (three), and it does not help that
in three lined games they have been out-rushed 705-262. Now they have to take
to the road against a team that understands full well how to defend this kind of
attack, and we believe that a challenging early schedule, in terms of class of competition,
style of play and travel, has accelerated the Warrior development. In the
longest trip any teams make for a conference game note that the hosts are on a logical
4-0 ATS run in the series, beating the spread by 51, and it is more of the same
as the ragged Bulldogs wear out. HAWAII 46-19



**PREFERRED
Vanderbilt over Connecticut* by 5
Robbie Caldwell is an “old school” guy that knows exactly what his best chances
are to compete vs. superior talent – play safe and smart early, try to keep the game
close, and then make some plays late to get over the hump. That was absolutely the
case in the first two SEC games, when the Commodores had 73 runs vs. only 35
passes. After being within 10-3 in the fourth quarter vs. L.S.U., they made those
second-half plays to win outright at Ole Miss. And they were also alive to the final
play in the opener against Northwestern. Now with a bye week off of that win the
confidence level and energy increase, and those same tactics put them in the hunt
all the way here vs. an opponent that lacks the manpower to break it open early.
The pedigree of an SEC road dog is tough to pass up vs. this class, especially with
the Vanderbilt 5th-year seniors bringing an excellent 14-4 ATS run in the role, and
the Huskies can not help but be distracted a bit by that Big East opener on national
television at Rutgers on Friday. VANDERBILT 21-16.

Boston College* over Notre Dame by 11
The Eagles have had a difficult time moving the ball against defenses with muscle
at the line of scrimmage the last two seasons, when their power ground game is
taken away, and the air attack is not there to open things up. But when they can
get untracked overland it is a different story, which brings that hard-nosed defense
fully into play to control the game flow. That is what happens here against a soft
Notre Dame defense that has allowed at least 28 points and 404 yards in each of
those last three defeats, failing to either put up a wall against the run, or rush the
passer. And without a ground game of their own, the Fighting Irish lack the balance
to get Dayne Crist much time in the pocket, which keeps Brian Kelly’s playbook
limited to the early chapters. And note that there is something significant in
the fact that B.C. only lost 20-16 in South Bend last year despite a -5 turnover differential.
If you cough it up that often and are still close on the road, you are a
prime candidate to win the return match at home. BOSTON COLLEGE 27-16.

Georgia over Colorado* by 15
Yes, this setting certainly brings some Colorado advantages on the surface– the
Buffaloes have two weeks to prepare from what appeared to be an impressive scoreboard
vs. Hawaii, and are calling for a “Blackout” to generate fan interest vs. this
high-profile opponent. And with Georgia having lost three straight, it might even
look to the public like the door is open for an upset here. It isn’t; the only door
open is to cash an easy ticket with the much better team at the overly reduced price
range. There is still a major class difference between these programs, and in particular
a huge edge in team speed to the Bulldogs. So with a chance to vent some
frustrations they relish the chance to step down in class, and perhaps having the
pressure off outside of the SEC is a bonus for a young team. And while we cashed
near the top of these pages with the Buffaloes vs. Hawaii, note that they trailed 10-
0 at halftime in that one, and escaped because the altitude wore out the visitors,
not because of anything special they did on their own. GEORGIA 31-16.

Washington over Southern Cal* by 1
With the Trojans finally getting the money last week, generating a scoreboard at
Pullman that can send out the illusion of progress, it is no surprise to see an overadjustment
here, in a rare Pac 10 revenge setting for this program. But all is not
well with the program, and for all of the new coaches we are not sure that the
revenge motive from last year’s 16-13 loss to the Huskies necessarily resonates anyway.
So far we have indeed witnessed some athleticism, but also some sloppy play
in a 4-0 SU opening against a truly weak slate. In those back-to-back road wins
over Minnesota and Washington State they turned the ball over three times in each
game, including four Matt Barkley INT’s, a particularly ominous sign, and the 20
first downs they allowed on Saturday was State’s high for the season. Jake Locker
and the Huskies have two full weeks to prepare a game plan here, while also putting
that Nebraska debacle behind them, and a second straight outright win in this
series will not come as a shock to us. WASHINGTON 28-27

[spook]

Re: 10-2-10

GameSelections

Saturday College GS Best Plays:
"BIG 12 Bonanza"

Oklahoma (home) over Texas
Colorado (home) over Georgia

[spook]

Re: 10-2-10

RW Sports 176-181.5-26.5 (4-1)

10/02 Picks
birmingham - everton, draw, 3.3 @ ladbrokes
sunderland - man utd, 1st half draw, 2.3 @ bet365
sunderland - man utd, man utd, 1.86 @ Pinnacle

barnsley - cardiff, cardiff +0, 1.82 @ Pinnacle
ipswich - leeds, ipswich -0.25, 1.8 @ Pinnacle

real sociedad - espanyol, real sociedad +0, 1.63 @

[spook]

Re: 10-2-10

Football Prophet

1. Kentucky/Mississippi over 58 -120 buy 1/2 point

2. Stanford/Oregon over 65

3. Hawaii -9

4. Ohio State/Illinois over 50

5. TCU/Colorado State over 53 -120 buy 1/2 point

6. Kansas/Baylor over 51

7. Nevada/UNLV over 62

8. Boise State/New Mexico State over 60

9. Michigan/Indiana over 65

10. Georgia Tech/Wake Forest over 60

11. Miami/Clemson over 51