10-2-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Derek Mancini

40 Dime Michigan St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Joseph D'Amico

TCU vs. Colorado State
Play: TCU -33

The #5 ranked TCU Horned frogs are perfect at 4-0 TY, outscoring foes by an average of 29 PPG. They failed to impress LW, not covering by a ½ point over SMU, 41-24. Their offense is strong but their defense is incredible. They will completely shut down Colorado State. Their blitz packages are ferocious. They are salivating with the thought of facing a true freshman QB in Pete Thomas. Colorado State snapped a 12 game SU losing streak as well as a 9 game ATS skid with a last-second FG over Idaho LW. This team has nothing. They don’t have the running game to keep the “D” of TCU off of their passing game. The Horned Frogs are 5-1ATS their L6 meetings, 7-1 ATS their L8 games played vs. teams with a losing record, and 20-7-1 ATS their L 28 conference games. The Rams are 1-4 ATS their L5 at home, 1-9 ATS their L10 overall, and 0-6 ATS their L6 conference games. Take TCU.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

David Malinsky

4* LSU -15.5 over TENNESSEE

We have been on the anti-Les Miles bandwagon for so long that we are not accustomed to writing from this direction – his 3-16 ATS tally as an SEC home favorite is something that has been awfully good to our pockets through the years. It is also something that has become common knowledge in the marketplace, however, and that brings us a price range that is far below where the current realities of these programs calls for. So we confidently shift gears, with the comfort that the X’s and O’s issues that Miles rarely maximizes are also not in play here – this one is all about the physical disparity between the teams.

In this weeks NCAA VERITIES & BALDERDASH column we went into detail about how the Phil Fulmer/Lane Kiffin exits have left the Tennessee roster extremely short-handed. Counting some walk-ons that were elevated to scholarship status they opened fall camp with 76 players, but have already lost nine since that time. It leaves them with a dearth of talent and experience that makes it tough to compete from the opening kickoff against this class of competition, but almost impossible as the game wears on. Through the first three lined games the Volunteers have been out-scored 75-14 in the third and fourth quarter, despite all of those games being in Knoxville, and while getting whipped by Oregon and Florida can be excused, what happened vs. U.A.B. on Saturday was chilling. A weak team from Conference USA simply pushed Tennessee all over the field in the latter stages, winning the second half 16-0 to force the game into O.T., and the only reason that the Blazers did not win in regulation is that they missed five FG’s. Total offense was 544-287, but somehow Tennessee survived to get the outright win, which helps to keep this spread where it is.

Now Derek Dooley has to take his young team on the road for the first time, against the most physical opponent in the trenches they have faced so far, and it is difficult to see this being anything but ugly. There will be little chance of Tennessee generating ball control on the ground, with an OL that has one SR on the entire two-deep chart, and in some stretches last week had three true FR playing together at the same time, getting nowhere against that L.S.U. defensive front. As for Matt Simms finding time to throw, his own statements are a truly dark, yet accurate, assessment of the current realities - “I know it sounds weird, but I really think I’ve kind of mastered how to take a sack and just protect my body and protect the football, as crazy as that sounds. It’s something that’s going to happen each and every game, and you’ve just got to continue to fight through it and stay healthy.” That is what you hear from a QB that has been sacked 11 times in the last two games. And it fits in well with Dooley’s own post-game assessment on Saturday - ”They looked like two equal teams out there. Actually, it really didn’t. It looked like one superior team. It’s just where we are right now.”

So what happens to a defense when their own offense can not pick up some first downs to give them a little rest? They wear out, as the recent results have shown. It got so bad vs. U.A.B. that four different defensive starters had to be on the field for more than 90 plays (SS Prentiss Waggner played every down, plus four more on special teams), and they were so worn down that Dooley had to cancel a day of practice this week. While the L.S.U. offense may lack sophistication, the Tigers have a big and physical OL, with four of the starters at least 300 pounds, including 6-6/318 Joseph Barksdale, 6-7/324 Josh Williford and 6-6/329 Alex Hurst, and they can literally bulldoze their way through a defense that will already show up weary, and have a difficult time gutting through four quarters. That is accentuated by this game being moved up to an afternoon starting time, with a hot and humid forecast for Baton Rouge (kickoff should be around 84 degrees), and with all of that pressure on the Tigers because of their sluggish offensive opening to this season, they will relish the chance to make some explosions.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Evan Altemus



3 Units Clemson +3.5

This game is not setting up well for Miami. They are coming off of a big road primetime win, while Clemson has had two weeks off to prepare. The Tigers are also coming off of a tough road loss to Auburn, so they will likely be anxious to come out strong at home. Miami is simply an over-rated team based on public perception. Jacory Harris is still prone to turnovers, and his road performances have not been that good, despite winning last week. Clemson’s quarterback Kyle Parker has done very well this season, especially limiting turnovers. The Tigers have a very balanced offense and have a good home field advantage. Clemson also was able to beat Miami on the road last season. There is great line value with this selection since the point spread is over a field goal. Make sure to get the Tigers at +3.5 because this game may come down to a last second field goal. Clemson has had more time to prepare, playing at home, and will want to come out strong to avenge their overtime loss to Auburn. They also get Miami coming off of big road win and now having to go back out on the road in a hostile environment. Look for Clemson to get the win.


3 Units Tennessee +16.5

LSU has started the season 4-0, but they were far from impressive wins. The Tigers offense has looked very sluggish at times and has only averaged 299 yards per game. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson has also thrown a 2/4 touchdown to interception ratio. Tennessee is not a dominant team by any teams, but they are good enough to stay within this point spread against an LSU team that is not high scoring. In fact, the Vols can score only about 10 points and still have a good chance at covering. LSU also has a big look ahead spot here, as they have a game against Florida looming next week. Tennessee did not try hard at all last week against UAB, but that game was a horrible sandwich spot due to it being between the Florida and LSU games. Because of that there is great line value here. This point spread hasn’t been even close to this number in the last decade, and I expect Tennessee to keep this game fairly close.


3 Units Stanford / Oregon Under 66½

This line is very inflated due to two main reasons. First, everyone has seen both teams light up the scoreboard this season, especially Oregon which has the #1 ranked offense in the country. Second, last season’s game was very high scoring and both teams combined for over 90 points. However, Stanford’s defense is vastly improved this season and held Notre Dame’s offense in check for the entire game last week. That performance shows that they are able to contain better offenses. Meanwhile, Stanford, while being high scoring this season, mainly uses shorter passes and running the ball on offense. That style of play uses up more clock and shortens the game. Also, this game is one of the marquee games on Saturday, so both teams will play a little more nervous and will be more focused on defense. These big featured games usually feature lower scoring anyway. Oregon’s offense struggled somewhat against Tennessee initially too before breaking out in the 2nd half. However, they still only put up 47 points against them, and I think that Stanford has a vastly better defense. Look for this game to fall under the inflated total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Sam Clayton

2* Ohio State vs Illinois +17.5

After really restraining myself from going against the Buckeyes the first four weeks, I'm all in Saturday as the situation is finally prime for swooping in and stealing some major value against OSU with a HUNGRY home dog. Let me first say that siding with the Illini doesn't mean I think Ohio State isn't a great team (because they are, no question), however, my true line was 13. A couple factors add to the line inflation, most notably the success Terrell Pryor and Co. have seen at the window. Not only is the No. 2 team in the nation a perfect 4-0 straight up, they've been really sticking it to Vegas at the books as well, posting a 4-0 ATS marker. After Vegas overadjusted their lines for Alabama and Boise State last week, the public failed to catch on and took a beating backing the country's best teams. That curveball comes this week for OSU backers and I'll glady take the extra three to four points with the Illini.

Conference play is usually the time of year where Illinois falls behind the pack --- don't worry, they WILL slide --- but this is easily their BIGGEST Big Ten home opener the past ten years. Hopes for a bowl game are still very much alive, the Champaign fans are still rambunctious and there's a motivational edge for the Illini, who look to avenge last year's embarrassing 30-0 loss at the Horseshoe. As an Illinois alum, trust me when I say these guys love playing the early 11 a.m. games; the fans will be up boozing and tailgating by 7. Memorial Stadium will be stacked, jam packed and colored bright orange, and Ohio State's first real road test will be a rather difficult one . . . especially out of the gate.

Expect Illini offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino to use his trench war advantage up front and get star-in-the-making tailback Mikel LeShoure plenty of carries early. Illinois boasts what I believe is the second best offensive line in the Big Ten behind Wisconsin, and LeShoure's statistics are a direct reflection. After showing flashes of brilliance the past two seasons, the Champaign native and local hero is having a breakout year with 398 yards and 3 scores on 7 yards per carry in three games. More than half the credit goes to the hogs on the O-line, where the average blocker is 6-6, 305. More than just possessing power and strength, this unit is surprisingly quick to their assignments and they do a great job of opening up holes and gaps for the speedy Illinois backs. LeShoure won't run wild on the Buckeye secondary because second level dominance is what Ohio State football prides itself on. The skill positions are what make them great, there's no question, but Illinois' control of the line of scrimmage will go a long way in keeping the clock running and keeping Pryor and the OSU offense off the field.

I spoke to two Illini linebackers a couple days ago and they made it clear they'll be in for a challenge against Pryor. However, they WILL be playing with a sizeable chip on their shoulder because they are sick and tired of hearing how great the Buckeyes swarm to the ball on defense. Said one of them, "Let em keep selling us short --- our offense might not light up the scoreboard against their D, but we're going to throw the kitchen sink against Pryor. We've had this game circled all offseason. We're hungry." Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning is certainly up to the task against Pryor and he will be changing and shaking looks up all game long. He'll operate out of the standard 4-3 defense but mix in some nickel coverage to go along with the Spy coverages, cornerback blitzes and what have you. The key is going to be to attack Pryor and keep him between the tackles. And just like the offensive trench war belongs to Illinois, I love their all UPPERCLASSMAN (3 SR, 1 JR) defensive line. These guys have the experience and are prepared for this Ohio State offense; they'll be absolute mad men on Saturday.

I take line movement pretty damn seriously and the sharps have already told me EVERYTHING. After opening up at 17.5, it immediately dropped to an even 17; since then it has crossed that KEY NUMBER as I'm seeing 16.5 at some shops. That's a hell of a lot of respect to give Illinois, especially with upwards of 80 percent on Ohio State. I cannot stress enough how important home field advantage is in the Big Ten. Illinois is a prime example of a black and white team in terms of playing home and away. The home crowd will skyrocket the adrenaline and Memorial Stadium will give the orange and blue a plethora of energy to exert on Ohio State. This is the third consecutive home game for the Illini and they've had an extra week to prepare for the Buckeyes and the sweater vest. And remember, because OSU is already 4-0 ATS and has stolen plenty of the books money, we're getting extra value and points with the revenge-bent Illini.Woof woof.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

The Duke's Sports

NC State (+3') for 2 Units

We were big on NC State since the season started and we'll continue to ride them here. Russell Wilson, a duel threat at QB, has a solid supporting cast, including a run game to help keep the chains moving. Of course, the overly aggressive Bud Foster defense of V Tech will be bringing heat from all angles. We'll look for the maturity of Wilson to counter it effectively. On the other hand, Tech's QB Tyrod Taylor is good when everything is going good; however, he has crumbled on the road against some good teams and NC State is a good team with a solid defense with fast downhill linebackers. NC State is 6-0 ATS off a SU dog win vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. The Wolfpack is also a sweet 18-7-1 ATS as a dog and 12-5 ATS in conference play. With Tech at 1-7 ATS in October, we'll grab the points again with this money maker from Raleigh as they get sweet revenge from last year's 38-10 humiliation at Blacksburg.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Tony George

Iowa -7

A huge step up for Penn State who has 3 wins against Youngstown State, Temple who they struggled against last week, and Kent State. They played one good team in Alabama and got waxed. Iowa over loss at AZ St and at home. Iowa has Penn States number and have won the last 2 years and covered 5 out of the last 6 meetings. Penn State young and Iowa at home is a beast with a QB with only 1 pick and 9 TDs who is a dual threat. Play 1 Unit on Iowa


Notre Dame -2.5

This line dropped below 3 and I am on the Irish here, even on the road. Notre Dame has had a brutal schedule and after the beating last week against a Stanford team which is very good and underrated, I like them against BC here, who failed to score a single point against VT last week. Notre Dame a talented team and are just adjusting to a learning curve, they get a win here against a beatable opponent. Play 1 Unit on Notre Dame

Bonus 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Play a half unit. Tease Nevada to -14.5 and Tease NC State to +10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Rocketman

4* Rutgers -17

We'll play Rutgers for 4 units today!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Marc Lawrence

4 Units Michigan State +2

We recommend a 4-unit play on Michigan State.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Lenny Del Genio

Georgia-4.5

If you though HC Mark Richt's seat was hot in Athens following UGA's first-ever 0-2 SEC start during his tenure, the poor man probably cannot even sit down following a 24-12 loss at Mississippi State LW that dropped them to 0-3 in conference play! That non-cover "dropped" them to 12-2 ATS when off BB SEC losses and after averaging 14 PPG in those three losses, the Dawgs drop in class to play a Colorado team that could easily be 1-2 if not for a remarkable 2nd half turnaround last game vs. Hawaii. In that game, the Buffaloes held Hawaii to just seven rushing yards and outscored them 31-3 after the half, but note that the Buffs are an horrendous 1-10 ATS following a game where they limited their opponent to 40 rushing yds or less. UGA gets a huge offensive boost this week with the return of WR AJ Green, whose silly suspension by the NCAA severly limited what the Bulldogs could do on that side of the ball. Throughout Richt's tenure, his teams have been incredible on the road, going 33-7 straight up. Colorado is just 2-9-1 SU vs. SEC teams and let's not forget that this is a team just three weeks removed from a 52-7 beatdown at the hands of a California team that would lose outright to Nevada by three touchdowns in its following game. Georgia is our 20* Non-Conf Game of the Month.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

lpwsportsforecast

October 3rd

Game of Week
Texas +3.5 over Oklahoma
We fully expect a rejuvenated effort from longhorns after embarassing loss to UCLA last week.Texas 11-5 ats in last 16 games following a loss and honestly Oklahoma doesnt look to us like they have anywhere near the capacity UCLA did to hammer ball at longhorns.Expect a huge effort from Texas and QB Gilbert and W!!




Underdog Game of Week
10 Unit Virginia +7 over FSU
This Cavalier team seems to be flying under radar, almost upsetting USC earlier in season and now facing FSU at home.This is a huge game for Cavaliers having being beaten badly by FSU last year and we feel Virginia has tools, particularly on defense to keep this game close and have chance at upset.We note seminoles 8-22-1 ats record in last 31 games following win of 20+! Take points

8 Unit Buffalo +3.5 over Bowling Green

We simply cant trust a team in Bowling Green that is 6-17 ats in last 23 home games and also allowing 6.4 ypc!! Buffalo will find the going a little easier this week then with Connecticut and we feel have a solid chance to Win here.Buffalo 12-5-1 ats last 18 road games and match up well with BG talentwise!

8 Units Penn.St/Iowa Under 40.5

2 very solid defenses as it was Lions defense last week that sparked win over Temple.Under is 18-7-2 in Hawkeyes last 27 games following su win and we feel this is a tight defensive battle.

Other College releases

7 Unit E.Michigan +10 over Ohio

6 Unit Boise.St -43 over N.Mexico St

4 Unit E.Carolina +14 over N.Carolina

4 Unit ULMonroe/Auburn Over 54

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Executive 600 UCONN-8

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

executive


600 uconn
350 okla
350 org st.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

ethan law

(3%) washington state +24
(2%) western michigan +3.5
(2%) indiana +10
(2%) tennessee +16.5
(2%) arizona state +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-2-10

Jack ClaytonGuaranteed SelectionsDate: Saturday, October 02, 2010
$25.00 Guaranteed: Were you on Jack Clayton's 5-Star Total Big Game Bailout last Saturday? You didn't have to break a sweat as Oregon/Arizona State sailed WAY Over the total. No need to worry, as he has found another soft total this Saturday that oddsmakers completely dropped the ball on. Get all the goods on this late game total, and go to bed a winner Saturday night with this 5-Star Total Big Game Bailout!10/1/2010 5* (183) NEVADA / (184) UNLV OVER THE TOTAL: Nevada (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) has that incredible “Pistol” rushing attack that averaged 40.6 points, 362 yards rushing and 159 passing last fall and is 5th in the country with 300 yards rushing per game now. Coach Chris Ault is a terrific offensive mind and the backfield returns 6-foot-6 senior QB Colin Kaepernick (7 TDs, 1 INT), who is deadly as a runner and passer. Nevada had a big win at home, 52-31 over Cal as the offense had 497 yards (316 rushing), though the defense allowed 502 yards. Teamed with senior RB Vai Taua, this is a devastating Wolf Pack ground attack, off a 27-13 win at BYU with 239 yards rushing. They are on an 8-4 run over the total, as the defense was soft at times, so look for plenty of points. They will score a ton on this terrible UNLV (1-3 SU/ATS) defense, losing to Wisconsin (41-21 loss), Utah (38-10) and Idaho (30-7). At least new coach Bobby Hauck has settled on a QB, in senior QB Omar Clayton. Clayton got the starts Saturday and hit Michael Johnson for three touchdown passes in leading UNLV to an 45-10 win over New Mexico. Nevada is 5-0 Su/ATS the last 5 meetings, including a 63-28 pounding last fall and I see a ton of points in 2010. Play Nevada/UNLV Over the total!