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Game: Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders Oct 3 2010 4:05PM
Prediction: Oakland Raiders
Reason: 25* graded play on the Raiders as they take on Houston set to start at 4:05 EST. The Raiders offense has come to life and they are moving the ball with great proficiency between the 20 yard lines. Problem has been that there are just two teams worse in red zone execution this season. Penalties have been a problem as well and again those in the red zone have negated strong scoring opportunities. Penalties is certainly something the coaching staff has addressed publicly and Oakland will play with renewed discipline this week. The Oakland defense has been extremely good holding both the Rams and Arizona to season low offensive totals. One of the dominant reasons why has been the superb play of Nnamdi Asomugha, who held Arizona Cardinal Fitzgerald to one reception. Houston’s Andre Johnson will have a long day matched up against him and it diminishes the options for the Houston offense. Houston is just 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games after playing a game at home since 1992; 1-12 ATS when they have a 500 or higher winning percentage taking on an opponent off a straight up loss. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot at winning this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-6 making 21.1 units since 2000. Play against road teams versus the money line off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’ in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing between 23-27 points per game. Here is a second system that has gone 45-13 against the Money Line for 78% winners since 2000. Play on home teams facing the money line that are good rushing teams gaining >=4.5 yards per rush facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing <=3.5 yards per rush. Houston is just 2-12 against the money line (-11.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992. Oakland is a solid 6-1 against the money line (+8.3 Units) after allowing 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Oakland is the play.
Joyce Sterling
Seattle -1 @ St. Louis
St. Louis in a let down after winning their 1st home game in 15 tries.
Seattle is 10-0 straight up and 8-2 ATS vs St. Louis.
Seattle's only two wins in their last 13 road games both came in St. Louis, including a 27-17 victory last season.
The Seahawks tried to improve their offense by signing former Denver wide receiver Brandon Stokley as well as linemen Allen Barbre and Breno Giacomini on Tuesday.
We know Seattle is terrible on the road but they are facing a team with no talent.
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