Tweet
Re: 10-22-10
Baseball Prophet
Tx/Ny over 9
Baseball Prophet
Tx/Ny over 9
-
Re: 10-22-10
NITE OWL SPORTS
South Florida Bulls @ Cincinnati Bearcats - Friday October 22, 2010 8:00 pm
3 units ATS: Cincinnati Bearcats -7.5 (-110)
This ESPN match-up between Big East rivals Cincy and USF features Bearcats’ steadily improving offense against USF’s good but not great defense, which has held up pretty well so far TY, although they also haven't faced the toughest of schedules. And on the lower end of the scale is the contest between a suspect Bearcat defense and a USF offense which has struggled mightily all year, especially in their three games against legitimate teams, all losses both SU and ATS, at Florida and at West Va, and at home to Syracuse, as 8 point faves. And we capitalized on recognizing these teams’ strengths and weaknesses in last week’s ESPN games involving both of them, as we “cashed” with West Va and the Under last Thursday night against USF, and same story the next night with Cincy and the Over against LVille, a game in which Cincinnati beat Louisville 35-27, and 45 points had been scored by HT.
And we still don't believe the odds makers have a proper handle on just how good this Cincinnati offense is right now, as Bearcats have scored 29, 45, and 35 points over their last three games, with the 29 and 35 coming against against some reasonably tough competition in Oklahoma and Louisville. And Cincy QB Zach Collaros has quietly become one of the most efficient passers in the nation this season, completing over 63% of his passes for 1,455 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. He'll likely improve on those numbers against a South Florida secondary that has decent overall #s so far, but remains largely untested. And note that while the USF Bulls allowed only 20 points against West Virginia last week, the Mountaineers were able to do pretty much whatever they wanted on offense, being limited by conservative play-calling in the second half, and West Va QB Geno Smith was near perfect in that game, completing 24-of-31 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns. That doesn't bode well for the Bulls as they prepare to face dual (running and passing) threat Collaros and the Bearcats explosive offense on tonight. But the real key on offense for Bearcats has been the return (from minor early season injury) of running back Isaiah Pead, who in the last three games has rushed for an average of 170 yards, which has kept opposing defenses honest and helped set up lots of “play action” passes for Collaros. Moreover, history is also on the side of the Bearcats, as Cincinnati has prevailed both SU and ATS in the last four contests in this series (all competitively priced games with the line being 5 or less and Bearcats “dogged” in two of them), with an average MOV (margin of victory) of 13 points. And Cincy is 3-0 both SU and ATS in their last 3 HGs against USF, with an even greater average MOV of 18 points. But the Cincy defense, while good against the run so far TY (allowing just 112 YRPG and 3.3 YPC), is vulnerable to the pass, allowing 277 YPPG and with only two “picks” all season, and was “abused” for 370 YP by Okla’s Landry Jones in their tight 29-31 loss to Sooners a few weeks ago. Cincinnati has really only faced one dual-threat QB this season, that being Russell Wilson of N.C. State, and he was able to carve the Bearcats up for 333 passing yards and three touchdowns. And South Florida has a mobile QB of its own in B.J. Daniels, but he is nowhere near the QB that NC State’s Wilson is, and he is looking to get his season untracked after a tough start, averaging just 122 YPPG in all games (which includes USF’s home victories over Sun Belt weaklings FAU and Western Ky), and has thrown a whopping 10 INTs, many at really inopportune times, like at the end of the 1H in LW’s loss at West Va, after which Mounties scored a TD in final seconds of 1H to turn a tight 10-3 game into a 17-3 HT lead from which the run-oriented USF offense was never able to recover.
Due mostly to Daniels’ struggles, South Florida has done little to nothing offensively over the last two weeks, producing a grand total of 15 points in losses to Syracuse and West Virginia., and failing to even score a single TD in either game. And although USF’s 1Y HC Skip Holtz is 23-11 ATS as a road dog since 2005 (counting his days as HC at East Carolina), he is now 0-2 as a road dog at USF (that 6-20 loss LW at West Va and a numbing 38-14 blowout loss at Florida in Sept., where Bulls were stampeded by Gators in 2H, 31-7, and gave up 251 YR on 6.8 YPC).
Based on the above and our trademark match-up analysis, we look for Cincinnati to set the tone early with at least one quick score, and then extend the lead throughout the game, and if USF is forced to play catch-up with mistake –prone (10 INTs already TY) QB BJ Daniels having to pass more than Bulls’ OC Fitch would like, Bulls are in a heap of trouble. So while we are not wild about laying > a TD here, we believe that the best option for playing this game is to do just that, and will make this 3 unit ATS pick on Cincinnati at -7.5.Comment
Comment