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1:00pm - washington redskins +7 (3 unit)
1:00pm - houston texans +7 (3 unit)
4:05pm - atlanta falcons -2.5 (10 unit max play) buy the 1/2 point!
4:05pm - seattle seahawks +11.5 (3 unit)
4:05pm - seattle seahawks @ new orleans saints - over 44 (3unit)
4:15pm - new england -3 (7 unit) buy the full 1 point in this game!
8:00pm - philadelphia eagles -3 (3 unit)
If you don’t think this is a revenge game for the Steelers, you’re crazy. Pittsburgh let the Raiders’ Bruce Gradkowski throw for 223 yards in the fourth quarter last year and the last-place Raiders scored three TDs to beat the Steelers 27-24 and sent Pittsburgh reeling and essentially out of the playoffs.
Now, Pittsburgh comes in off a bad home performance against the Patriots and with some injuries, but I think today you’ll see the Steelers defense step up and dominate this game and bring the offense along for the ride. This game is going to be ugly and I expect the Steelers to win it 28-10.
Even with the ugly outing last week, the Steelers give up just 18.8 points per game at home and just 75 rushing yards per game. They are not going to let Raiders’ RB Darren McFadden have a big day and they are going to force Jason Campbell to throw the ball. He is completing just 57 percent of his throws and has 7 TDs and 5 INTs.
Pittsburgh needs balance on the offensive side and don’t need Ben Roethlisberger making 50 pass attempts. They will get the running game on track with Rashard Mendenhall who has 850 yards rushing this season, seven TDs and no fumbles.
Pittsburgh is 19-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points and 4-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. The Steelers are going to bounce back in a big way and put a hurting on the Raiders. I know Oakland has won some games lately and they are in the thick of things in the AFC West, but they are overmatched today.
Lay the points and play the Steelers.
100-Unit NFL Primetime Pushover - NEW YORK GIANTS
Yes, I saw the way the Eagles and QB Michael Vick completely demolished the Redskins on Monday night. But I’m not going to over-react to it like the rest of the world has. He beat a terrible Washington team that is about to implode. Nothing all that impressive. He faces a real defense tonight and I’m going to grab the points with the Giants, who have been humiliated all week for their performance against the Cowboys.
New York has the NFL’s top-rated defense, allowing just 270.2 yards per game. I know they got shredded by the Cowboys last week, but there was a whole lot of emotion on the Cowboys’ sideline with the firing of Wade Phillips. Today, you’ll see the real Giants’ defense get after Vick and stuff those Eagles’ receivers at the line of scrimmage and not let them get downfield for the deep pass.
Both teams have explosive offenses, with the Eagles averaging 400 yards per game while the Giants average 409.8. New York QB Eli Manning is tied for the NFL lead with 19 TDs and WR Hakeem Nicks is tied for the NFL lead with 9 TD catches. Both teams also rush the ball well with Philly No. 1 in the NFC and New York second.
The key is going to be the pressure coming from the Eagles’ defensive line. They had the record-setting game earlier this season against the Bears, and they have got to get after Vick today and get him to the ground.
The Giants have cashed in four of their last five trips to Philly and the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. New York is also on ATS surges of 21-7 on the road, 13-5 as an underdog and 12-4 as a road ‘dog. Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS at home, 2-5 ATS against NFC East rivals and 1-5 ATS against winning teams. I’m grabbing the points with the Giants in this matchup.
Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
100 Dime play on the Rams plus the points over the Falcons. As this selectaon is being released at 1 am Eastern, St. Louis is currentoly getting 3 points in this contest. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insuerance at anywhere from + 3 to + 4 1/2.
No one seems to believe the Rams have a shot here. No one except me that is. Before we even begin this analysis, doesn't it seem a bit fishy that you're only being ask to lay a field goal to play the red-hot Falcons here? Given their 3 straight wins, incl. an impressive one against Baltimore in their last one, and a surging Matt Ryan leading the way, it would appear oddmakers have made a huge mistake with this number. Or have they?
Here's the big x-factor... the venue. Notice the Falcons three straight wins all came at home, where they're all but unbeatable. However, put the Birds on the road, and all of a sudden they looks like an average NFL football team. Atlanta averages just 18 ppg away, while allowing 20 ppg. This is significant, because the Rams are similar the Falcons in one respect - they play MUCH better at home. St. Louis is not only built to play on the turf, but their numbers prove it, allowing 12 ppg on 294 total yards at the Edward Jones Dome, where they're 4-1 SUATS this season!
With all the talk about "Matty Ice," bettors are ignoring just how well Sam Bradford is playing of late, throwing 6 TDs without a pick over his L4 games! He's posted a QB rating no worse than 87 over that span, and with Steven Jackson healthy and running hard, this St. Louis offense is good enough to stick with Atlanta - given the venue of course.
On the other side of the ball, not only is the Rams defense feature a strong pass rush, but they're also great against the run - which is key against this Falcons offense. Did you know the Rams are tied for 1st in the NFL with 28 sacks? How about their run defense... Did you know they allow only 79 rushing yards per game at home? Before you dismiss this Rams team in this match up, consider the venue, and consider how the Rams strengths counteract the Falcons strengths.
Public is ALL OVER Atlanta in this spot, because they're failing to give credit where credit due. St. Louis has been money lately (7-1 ATS L8), and is a very good team at home. On the other hand, the public is also giving way too much credit to the Falcons, who've proven very vulnerable on the highway. Public bloodbath in the making, but not for my clients. Take the Rams plus the points (remember to buy the insurance as instructed above) over the Falcons Sunday.
75 Dime release on Baltimore over Carolina. As this selection is releaised at 4 AM Eastern, the Ravens are currently layning 11 points pretty much everywhere here in Vegas and offishore.
15 Dime 1st Half release on Baltimore over Carolina. The Ravens are currently laying 7 points in the 1st Half of this contest.
15 Dime release on the Over in the Cleveland-Jacksonville game. The total is currently at 43 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Over in the Baltimore-Carolina game. The total is currently at 37 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Under in the Detroit-Dallas game. The total is currently at between 46 1/2 and 47 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Under in the Atlanta-St. Louis game. The total is currently at 43 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Under in the NY Giants-Philadelphia game. The total is currently at 48 in this contest.
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