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Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
25 Dime release on the 49ers over the Cardinals. San Franciaco is currcently listed as anywlhere from a 1 to 1 1/2 point chalk in this match up.
Given the Niners road record (0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS) and their most recent 21-0 shutout loss to the Bucs, the fact they're a slight favorite here imaediately called my attention. Obviously oddsmakers are trying to entice you to bet the Cardinals, who've looked decent at times in the last month or so (at Vikings, and vs. Bucs), only to fall off badly in their last two games. More of the same for Whisenhunt's troops tonight, as I've liked what I've seen from San Fran for the most part of late.
Big difference with Troy Smith under center, despite the shutout last week. It started against Denver in London, and the 49ers notched back-to-back wins in relatively impressive fashion. Unfortunately, it appears as though San Fran let the wins get to their heads against Tampa, and paid the price with a real egg of an effort last Sunday. I expect they'll have their heads back in the game this week on the big stage, and facing a putcrid Arizona offense won't hurt either.
It's pretty safe to say Arizona's win over New Orleans in Week 5 was a total aberration. They went into the bye following that game, and despite a couple decent efforts since, I'm not buying what they're selling. Obviously, Max Hall wasn't the answer, but I refuse to say Anderson is either. His 53% completion percentage is awful, and coupled with a non-existant run game, the Cardinals are going nowhere despite some strong talent at the skill positions. Worst part for Anderson is the 49ers defense is no pushover, allowing 19 ppg over their L3 games.
Same cannot be said for Arizona's stop unit, sulredering 31 ppg on nearly 450 yards of total offense. This is the perfect bounce back spot following their shutout loss to the Bucs. Troy Smith is a veteran, capable of getting it done against a porous Cardinals secondary (allowing 333 passing yards L3 games), while we all know how good Frank Fore is. The fact Gore got totally shutdown by the Bucs means we can expect big things from the former Cane tonight. Look for a major rebound from last week for this San Francisco team, as they take care of business in Phoenix.
20 Dime NFL release on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS minus the points at Arizona. The Niners are laying around 1 ½ points both here in Vegas and offshore, with the line as high as minus-2 in a couple of plaoces and as low as minus-1. I doubt Arizona will attract much money in this contest, meaning the pointspread only figuees to go up from here, so wager accordingly.
49ERS
Here’s how bad things are in Arizona: The Cardinals are a home underdog tonight to a team that’s got an identical 3-7 record, is coming off a 21-0 home loss and is winless in four road games (1-3 ATS), including giving Carolina its only victory of the season.
So why side with San Francisco tonight? Because at least the Niners have shown some signs of life lately. Yes, they got spanked by Tampa Bay last Sunday, producing just a 189 yards of total offense with supposed elusive QB Troy Smith getting sacked six times. However, prior to that ugly effort, San Francisco had won two in a row and three of four, with the offense putting up a respectable 23, 24 and 20 points in three straight outings.
On the flip side, it’s been all downhill for Arizona, which has lost five straight games (1-4 ATS), including blowout losses to the Seahawks twice (22-10 and 36-18) and Chiefs (31-13 last week). Since a 17-13 season-opening win over rookie Sam Bradford and the Rams, the Cardinals’ defense has been nonexistent, yielding at least 27 points six times in nine games. For the season, Arizona is allowing 29.2 points and 396.8 yards per game, including 29.2 points and 404.8 yards per game at home and 31.3 points and 449.7 yards per game the last three weeks.
Compare those defensive stats to San Francisco, which is yielding 21.9 points and 328.2 yards per game on the season, including 19 points and 343 yards over the last three contests.
The 49ers swept the season series from the Cardinals last year (and that was when Kurt Warner was under center for Arizona), and San Francisco has cashed in three straight meetings overall four straight in the desert. In fact, the visitor is on an 8-1 ATS romp in this rivalry, including
We successfully played against Virginia in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge last season as they were favored against Penn State and lost the game outright. This year sees the Cavs having recently come back from Hawaii, but that trip did little to prepare them for the step up in class they face here. While out on the island, UVA suffered losses by 43 to Washington and 12 to Wichita State. Against WSU, they shot just 23% from the floor in the second half. Last year's team finished last in the ACC in both field goal offense and defense. Their only 'true' road game of the season resulted in a 80-61 loss to Stanford, meaning all three losses have come by double digits this season. It doesn't help here that G Zeglinski is still out with an injury. A strong freshman class still needs time to gel with the holdovers that lost their final nine ACC games. Minnesota, meanwhile, is a perfect 6-0 on the season including big wins over North Carolina and West Virginia en route to winning the Puerto Rico tip off. The big story here is that the Gophers will be without two starters, but that shouldn't matter with such a deep roster that includes eight players averaging double digit minutes and five averaging 8.2 PPG. These teams have met four times previous in this event with Minnesota winning twice, including a 10-pt home win two years ago. Take Minnesota.
5 UNIT* MIAMI HEAT -11.5
He's on the Miami Heat -11.5
Indeed, we are on a heavy favorite today. We rarely take heavy favorites, but I ran across an article in the Miami Herald that talked about how the Heat had a players only meeting after the loss to the Mavericks on the road. This Heat team is obviously talented but struggling at or around a .500 near mark which is driving these players crazy. Their lack of bench is certainly a part of this but getting Dampeer will help their cause a bit. This team also is starting Carlos Arroyo which is smart as well to get more of a flow in their offensive framework. I'm not saying the Heat have it figured out. I am saying though that for one game, they respond well to this player's only meeting and win this game by a wide margin. I think its worth for us to take a shot on this team to have a blowout win as the Wizards came within one point of the Orlando Magic and likely has a let down here. Remember, the Heat won 27 over Phoenix at home and the Wizards can lose big on the road such as losing to the Hawks by 20 or to the Celtics by 31. I just don't see the Heat letting up today and I can see them winning this contest by a wide margin.
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