6-17-11

[timbob]

MLBPredictions
Kevin
Winner yesterday with the Under San Francisco / Arizona

1* Detroit Tigers @ Colorado Rockies – UNDER 9.5 RUNS (+100)

Rick Porcello is on the mound for the Detroit Tigers, and he has been pitching well as late, without much attention. Porcello has won 5 of his last 7 starts, and has given up 3 runs or less in 9 of his past 10 starts. Rick is 6-4 on the season with a 3.61 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, while batters are hitting .259 against him. Take note that Porcello is 5-1 with a 2.30 ERA vs National League teams. Jason Hammel hasn’t had much success this season with a 3-6 record, but has respectable numbers with a 3.65 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Batters are hitting .264 against Hammel. Take note that the UNDER is 7-2-1 in the Tigers last 10 interlague games as a small underdog of +110 to +150. The UNDER is also 5-1 in Porcello’s last 6 starts as a road underdog, and 2-0-2 with a total set between 9 and 10.5. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in his last 5 starts overall. Note that the UNDER is 7-2 in the Rockies last 9 games with a total set between 9 and 10.5, and 5-2-1 in their last 8 games as a small favorite of -110 to -150. The UNDER is 34-15-2 in the Rockies last 51 interleague games vs a team with a winning record. Also note that the UNDER is 4-0 in these two teams last 4 meetings. This series is very important to both teams, and I expect runs to a little tougher to come by than this high total indicates.
Take the UNDER tonight.

[timbob]

VIC MONTE

1000* SYNDICATE BLOWOUT San Francisco Giants -150 ML
1000* SYNDICATE SHOCKER Pittsburgh Pirates +130 ML
1000* SYNDICATE SHOCKER Detroit Tigers +120 ML

EasyBaseballBetting

Our systems say to go for:

Marlins (+126),
Pirates (+128),
Royals (+161),
Braves (-140),
Astros (+144).

[golden contender]

GC MLB System Play

Friday 2 MLB Inter league System Plays lead the way. The Triple Perfect MLB Totals play that averages 12 runs and the 16-1 MLB Diamond Cutter Power system that wins by 3 runs per game. MLB On a 17-6 run as top Totals Play cashes. Free Plays 25-12. MLB Free play below---

On Friday the MLB Free system Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals. Game 922 at 8:15 eastern. The Cards fit a nice system here that has cashed 28 of 35 times. What we want to do is play on certain home favorites off a road loss and scored 4 or less runs with 5+ men left on base vs an opponent off a road dog loss of 2 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs with 5 or more men left on base. The Cards are 11-4 as a home favorite in this range and have a nice pitching advantage with C. Carpenter taking on Paulino. Look for St. Louis to take game one tonight. On Friday I have 2 Top Tier system plays. The Triple Perfect Totals system that averages 12 runs per game + A big Diamond Cutter system that has won 16 of 17 times by an average 3 runs per game. MLB Top plays Cashes the Over in the Oakland KC game and is now on a 17-6 run. Jump on and start the Weekend right. For the free Play take the St. Louis Cardinals. GC

[timbob]

DAQsports
06/17/11

NOTE: Interesting that I could analyze game after game, and lose the way I have been. There had to be an answer. MLB has a uniqueness that is hard to describe. Pitchers can be pitching extremely well, and then they implode. Teams can score 7 runs on five hits, and then 0 runs on 13 hits. The inconsistencies can drive you crazy, or they can make you work harder. I chose to work harder. I have three solid indicators for MLB. Believe it or not the losses can be a good thing. They expose strentghs and weaknesses. The numbers now look terrific, and the results will be excellent. Kiss the numbers below goodbye. We are back on track.

Yesterday: (2-6-0) -381 units, Week (monday - sunday): (12-22-0) -848 units

Today's Selections:

MLB:
Yankees (moneyline) -160, Yankees (runline) -105,
Phillies (moneyline) +101,
Reds (moneyline) -149, Reds (runline) +135,
Mets (moneyline) -125, Mets (runline) +165,
Dodgers (moneyline) -155, Dodgers (runline) +142,
Dbacks (moneyline) -131, Dbacks (runline) +152,
brewers/red sox over 9.5 total runs (+101)

[timbob]

TIM TRUSHEL

10* MLB O/U Game of Week Baltimore/Washington UNDER 8

Jimmy Boyd

5* 11-0 Interleague Game of the Week!
Minnesota Twins

EARLY SHARP MOVES

923 - Over 9 Detroit / Colorado

909 - Under 8 LA Angels / NY Mets

601 - Over 163.5 Atlanta / Minnesota

603 - Under 149.5 New York / Chicago

911 - Over 9 Florida / Tampa Bay

925 - Over 9 Chicago White Sox / Arizona
4* Interleague *Marquee Matchup*
Boston Red Sox

3* MLB *Crunch Time Bailout*
LA Dodgers

[timbob]

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +134 over CLEVELAND

Remember not too long ago when the Indians had the top OPS in the AL? Those days are long gone. Cleveland has averaged just 3.0 RPG while posting a batting line of .216/.280/.333 (.612 OPS) since May 18. The Indians have been shut out seven times in that stretch. In the heart of its spring run that had everyone believing Cleveland was for real, they went 9-3 in a stretch on one-run games. And back then, 80% of their rotation was outperforming their skills. Things have turned for the Indians, and the end of the struggle is not in sight. Their neighbor to the east is trending the other way. The Pirates pitching has led the team to a 15-10 record in its last 25 games. Over that stretch, Pitt has posted a nifty 2.48 ERA. Over their last seven games, the Pirates have allowed more than two runs just twice. Don't look for that trend to hit a wall against the slumping Indians. Furthermore, the Pirates are two games above .500 this late in the season for the first time in probably close to 15 years. These guys love coming to the park and the point is they are in a great frame of mind while the Indians are not. Josh Tomlin had a nice 3.03 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in May, but those surface stats did not come with exciting skills. With a 36%/22%/42% GB/LD/FB profile in May, along with a very low 21% hit rate and a low strikeout rate, Tomlin is a huge risk laying a tag with a team that can’t score. Kevin Correia comes with risk too but he’s a groundball pitcher (47%/15%/38% - GB/LD/FB) with elite command (19 walks in 89 frames) and that’s why these types of pitchers win games. Play: Pittsburgh +134 (Risking 2 units).


Milwaukee +122 over BOSTON

Since May 1, the Red Sox are 28-12, averaging 6.1 RPG on the strength of an .845 OPS so when they’re a small price at home, that’s telling us something. What it’s telling us is that the books give the Crew a huge shot here. The Red Sox welcomed John Lackey back to their rotation on June 5, and Lackey pitched good enough to win and we use that term loosely considering the opposition (an A's team batting Conor Jackson cleanup) and that Lackey walked as many as he struck out (two). He followed that up with a win over the Blue Jays but he had a 4-0 after three innings and a 12-2 lead after five. Now he returns to Fenway where he’s posted an ERA of 8.27 in four starts with a BAA of .321. He’s also walked 11 and struck out eight in 20.2 home frames. In night games, Lackey is 0-4 with an ERA of 8.46 and both his games since he returned were day games. At 16M a year and without a reliable fourth or fifth starter, the Red Sox will give him another shot but come playoff time or pennant race time, you won’t see him anywhere near the mound. John Lackey is an “old” 32-yrs of age with a ton of miles on his arm and he will be scored upon tonight. Meanwhile Shawn Marcum knows Fenway well and has always pitched well here. In 38.1 career IP at Fenway, Marcum owns a 3.52 ERA. He also has excellent numbers against Boston hitters (.638 OPS, 21% SO rate) in many past meetings. It's not everybody that can thrive in the majors with an upper 80's fastball, but thanks to a six-pitch arsenal and an uncanny ability to work both sides of the plate, Marcum has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. Play: Milwaukee +122 (Risking 2 units).


N.Y. Yankees –1½ +104 over CHICAGO

2:20 PM EST. Wow, where do we start? First, a trip to historic Wrigley, a place the Yanks haven’t visited since 2003, will surely jack up the Yankees in much the same way a series with the Red Sox does. Joe Girardi is from Illinois and played with the Cubs from 1989-92, and again from 2000-02. He’ll have plenty of friends and family in the yard and the Yanks players know how much he wants these wins. The bludgeoning Yanks offense (#1 overall with an .800 OPS and 103 HR) has scored 51 runs while batting .336 with 13 jacks and a .570 slugging percentage in its last seven games - a 6-1 stretch at home. Against lefties, they’re even more deadly, as they have won six of eight games against southpaws on the road and will face a southpaw stiff here in Doug Davis. Davis hasn’t had a WHIP under 1.50 in six straight years and this year it’s an ugly 1.86. Putting Yankees on base is bad strategy and that’s precisely what is going to happen here. It’s just a matter of how many are on base when someone goes yard. The Cubbies are 0-6 when Davis starts and he’s walked 17 batters in his last 19 innings. Here’s what Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano said prior to this series on Jeter not playing,” I'm not happy my boy's not playing," Soriano told the Cubs' official website. "I was hoping he could have 2,999 hits and get 3,000 here and I can see it. I wanted to see 3,000 here in Chicago." Are you kidding? Who says that? Most players would say, we DON’T want it to happen here. We’ll walk him before that happens. Translation: We’re gonna watch while the Yanks kick our ass. The Cubbies have won eight games in 24 tries at home vs righties and they’ll face one here in Freddy Garcia. Garcia is 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs and his career 21 interleague victories are tied for third-most all-time. Let the bashing begin. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +104 (Risking 2 units).


Detroit +118 over COLORADO

The Rockies have lost Jason Hammel’s last eight starts. That’s a big problem because when a pitcher can’t get a win (his last win came on April 30), he starts nibbling, he’s fragile and he’s very beatable. To add to that misery, Hammel is not even that good to begin with. Hammel can’t get lefties out and over his last three starts he has a strand percentage of 82%. That’s unsustainable and the result is an xERA of 7.33. Hammel has a career opponent OPS of .855 with runners on so it’s only a matter of time before a whole bunch of them start crossing the plate. In those aforementioned last three starts, Hammel faced the Dodgers twice and Giants once and two of those three games were in San Fran and L.A. He walked seven and struck out seven and the Rocks lost all three by a combined score of 20-9. What little confidence he had is shot. The Tigers come in here winners of 13 of their past 18 games. Rick Porcello is a GB pitcher and has maintained a low line-drive % of 15% his entire career. He’s not dazzling but he’s consistently good with pinpoint control, an ERA of 3.61 and a 1.17 WHIP over the past month. Incidentally, Jason Hammel was removed from his last start with a still back (at least that’s what he claimed) and that only adds to the Tigers appeal. Play: Detroit +118 (Risking 2 units).

[timbob]

KELSO

25 UNIT* MLB* Cincinnati Reds -150 ML
15 UNIT* MLB* NY Yankees -162 ML
5 UNIT* MLB* Detroit Tigers +115 ML
3 UNIT* MLB* Philadelphia Phillies +103 ML

[timbob]

SCOTT RICKENBACH

7* MLB MONEYLINE ROUT New York Yankees ML
10* MLB Baltimore/Washington OVER
8* MLB Toronto/Cincinnati OVER
8* MLB Florida/Tampa Bay OVER

[timbob]

ALLEN EASTMAN

MLB Washington Nationals -115 ML
MLB Arizona Diamondbacks -135 ML

[Mr. IWS]

RAS
WNBA
Winner yesterday with U.Conn


601 Atlanta/Minn Over 163.5

[Mr. IWS]

RAS
ARENA

#301 Tulsa Talons +6.5 CRIS, +6 elsewhere.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (WNBA)
WNBA 10-4 Season-to-Date +$1090
1 OF 5

Game: Indiana at Seattle (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle -6 (-110)

Year in and year out, Seattle comes to play, especially at home where they are now an amazing 51-6 straight-up in their last 57 regular season games played here. Better yet, the only two Eastern Conference teams to beat them have been Connecticut and Chicago over the 57-game stretch at home. The Fever have been a good team in recent years, but they are in a bad spot as they are just 3-7 ATS off an ATS loss and similarly, 3-7 ATS off two days rest. That raises double-jeopardy here for the Fever vs. a Seattle team that is tough to take down at home.
Play Seattle here.

[Mr. IWS]

TIM TRUSHEL

10* MLB O/U Game of Week Baltimore/Washington UNDER 8

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Hook | MLB Money Line

Buried Treasure
dime bet 907 PIT (+131) Bodog vs 908 CLE

[Mr. IWS]

PITTVIPER SPORTS

ROT# 909 - 7:10pm - LA Angels/New York Mets over 7.5 +100
2.5 units to win 2.50 units

ROT# 915 - 7:10pm - Milwaukee Brewers +120
2.5 units to win 2.00 units

ROT# 901 - 10:10pm - Houston/Los Angeles over 7 -115
2.5 units to win 2.17 units