6-20-11

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
MLB Betting: New York Yankees Visit Cincinnati Reds
By: Willie Bee



New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds (-125, 9)

Off a rare trip to Wrigley Field, the New York Yankees make just their second visit to Great American Ball Park to face the Cincinnati Reds. Monday's series opener gets underway at 4:10 p.m. (PT) with ESPN's cameras on hand for the broadcast.

Cincinnati is a 120 favorite behind right-hander Johnny Cueto (5-3, 1.68). New York counters with Ivan Nova (8-5, 4.46) with an 8-run total on the Don Best odds screen.

The Reds opened a 6-game homestand by dropping the first two games to Toronto. Cincinnati went into Sunday's series finale looking to avoid being swept at home as well as still searching for interleague win number one on the season. The Reds were broomed by the Indians in May.

New York split the first two contests at the Cubs and was seeking a second interleague series victory in Sunday night's prime-time game at Wrigley.

This series will mark just the third meeting between the clubs since the Reds swept the Yankees in the 1976 World Series. Cincinnati has won the previous two sets, taking two of three at home in 2003 and two of three in 2008 at Yankee Stadium. Four of the six previous clashes have gone 'under' with one contest a 'push' on the totals board.

Cueto started one of the 2008 contests in the Bronx and came away a tough-luck loser. The Dominican allowed just a run in five innings, leaving the contest trailing 1-0 before New York tacked on a few more for a 4-1 win behind Andy Pettitte.

Just one unearned run has crossed the plate in Cueto's last two starts, each covering seven innings and both outings coming on the road at pitcher-friendly parks in San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Reds are 1-2 in the righty's three home assignments despite Cueto owning a 2.29 ERA in those games and hitters only batting .188 against him at Great American Ball Park.

Nova will be making only his second career interleague start, the other coming in May at home against the Mets. The young right-hander had one bad inning in the game and was touched up for 11 hits in 6 2/3 frames, but came away the victor in the Yanks' 9-3 win as decided 180 favorites.

Like Cueto, Nova brings a 2-game win streak into this matchup though he wasn't exactly a mystery to Texas hitters in last Wednesday's 12-4 triumph. The Rangers scored all four of their runs off Nova who checked out of the game two outs into the sixth.

Five of his last seven starts have been winners for 'over' bettors after beginning the season 6-1 to the 'under.

The Yankees are still without their captain Derek Jeter who is on the 15-day disabled list with a calf injury. The Reds aren't reporting any recent injuries.

Cloudy and warm with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms is the forecast for Cincinnati on Monday. First pitch should find the thermometer in the low-to-mid 80s with a south wind at 10-12 mph (in from right).

The series continues Tuesday with New York sending Brian Gordon to the mound opposite Reds lefty Travis Wood.

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Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers


STREAKING

Johnny Cueto (4-2, 1.68 ERA), Cincinnati Reds

Too bad Cincinnati didn’t have a few more pitchers like Cueto kicking around. Seems like the 25-year-old righty is the only hurler dealing for the Big Red Machine these days.

He’s 2-1 with a 0.89 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) and a 1.24 ERA over his last four trips to the hill.

"Johnny looked great," Reds first baseman Joey Votto told the Associated Press after Cueto’s latest outing. "He pounds the zone and locates his fastball. He's aggressive and he seems fearless. I mean, Matt Kemp's got 20 homers and he's hitting .330, and Johnny's going right after him. That says a lot."

Ricky Romero (6-6, 3.01 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays

Wait, Ricky Romero is dating Miss USA 2010? The same girl who got in hot water over those sexy pole dancing pictures?

Someone should have filled us in. That would explain why Romero is pitching with supreme confidence. It goes without saying - you date a Miss USA and you’re not going to have any low self-esteem issue.

Well, in case you didn’t know, the Jays are 4-3 in Romero’s last seven starts and he’s pitched at least seven innings in each of those appearances. He carries a 2.19 ERA over the seven-start stretch and the under is 4-2-1 during that time, too.


SLUMPING

Fausto Carmona (4-8, 5.79 ERA), Cleveland Indians

We’re not sure what Carmona is doing on the bump these days, but one thing is certain - he isn’t fooling hitters. The big righty has become nothing more than an innings eater for the Indians.

He’s 1-5 with a 9.81 ERA in his last six appearances and he hasn’t produced a quality start since May 8. Yeah, that was a looooong time ago.Total bettors will be happy to know the over is 6-2 in his last eight starts despite 9- and 10-run totals in most of those games.

Carlos Zambrano (5-4, 4.59 ERA), Chicago Cubs

Ever wonder what Zambrano’s description would be if the Cubs tried to unload the knucklehead on some poor sap on E-bay?

For sale: One overweight, overpaid and overrated major league pitcher, who hits better than he hurls.

The Cubbies are 0-4 in Big Z’s last four outings and he’s allowed five runs or more in each of his last two starts.

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HOT LINES

Monday’s Best MLB Bets

Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (-140, 8.5)

The last time Carlos Zambrano took the hill at U.S. Cellular Field, it wasn’t a pretty sight. He lasted just a single inning before getting the hook last June 25th in a 6-0 White Sox win and then proceeded to flip out at Derrek Lee in the dugout.

Baseball bettors didn’t see the Big Z for a while after that as he spent the next month or so going through anger management treatment.

Zambrano’s been his inconsistent self for most of this season and has allowed 12 runs over his last two starts while walking nine batters over that span.

You have to think he’ll get up this start though and Gavin Floyd will do the same. Floyd can grind it out with the best of them and we don’t expect to see a lot of runs on the board Monday.

Six of the last eight meetings between the two teams have played under and we like that trend to continue in Game 1 of the series.

PICK: Under


New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds (-125, 9)

The Reds finally snapped a nasty 16-inning scoring drought on Sunday, getting a two-run homer from Miguel Cairo in a 2-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays a day after manager Dusty Baker called his team out a bit.

"We didn't play very well," Reds manager Dusty Baker told reporters after Saturday’s 4-0 loss. "We didn't play good defense. We've got to keep working and fighting. It's three steps forward, two steps back. Tomorrow, we've got to take another step forward. This American League has been tough. We're 0-5 against the American League."

Now that the slump is out of the way, the Reds have a good chance to build on that momentum Monday. Johnny Cueto hasn’t allowed a run over his last two starts and we still don’t have all that much confidence in New York’s Ivan Nova.

PICK: Reds

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Monday’s Betting Tips: AL Dominating Interleague

Weather To Watch

Wimbledon Day 1 : The first day of action at Wimbledon could be slowed by wet and cold conditions and the tournament’s organizers are bracing for bad weather for at least part of the first week. Centre Court is covered by Wimbledon’s $100 million roof, but be sure to check the weather for the matches played on the other courts. “The week leading up was wet, which refocuses everyone, gets us back in the routine of covering the courts and keeping them dry,” head groundsman designate Neil Stubley told reporters.

Who’s Hot

MLB: The over is 10-3 in Baltimore’s last 13 interleague games.

MLB: Milwaukee is 19-7 in its last 26 games as a favorite.

MLB: Texas has won 17 of its last 24 interleague games.

Who’s Not

MLB: Colorado has lost 13 of its last 18 road games.

MLB: Atlanta is just 2-16 in Tim Hudson’s last 18 interleague starts.

MLB: Florida is suffering through a 6-21 slump.

Key Stat

14 – Rafael Nadal has won each of his last 14 matches at Wimbledon, a streak that dates back to 2007. Nadal is a +200 favorite to win the tournament.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Hunter Pence, Houston Astros: Pence sat out both of the Astros’ games over the weekend and was scheduled for an MRI on his hyperextended elbow back in Houston on Sunday. He’s considered day-to-day for now, but the team will update his status once the test results come in. Pence’s .321 batting average puts him ninth in the bigs and he also has nine homers and 51 RBIs.

Game Of The Day

New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds (-125, 9)

Notable Quotable

“This one is different because I’ve pretty much had a full year off, and my body is different because you take time off, and it’s not the same. So my butt’s way softer than it normally is.” – Serena Willams on how she feels heading into Wimbledon following her long layoff. Oddsmakers have her listed as a +350 favorite to defend her title.

Tips And Notes

The American League is having its way with the NL in interleague play so far. Following Sunday afternoon’s action the AL was 29-12 through the first three days of interleague action. If you had wager on the American League in every game ahead of the Sunday Night Baseball matchup of the New York Yankees at the Chicago Cubs you would have been up almost 17 units.

The Cleveland Indians fired hitting coach John Nunnally on Sunday and appointed the organizations minor league hitting instructor Bruce Fields. The move hardly comes as a shock. Cleveland’s offense has been terrible over the last month and was shut out six times during an 18-game span recently. The Indians were 5-13 during that slump and are now hitting just .251 on the year.

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

660- 502 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Mon: L A Angels -125

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Mets.

Monday it's the Indians. Deficit is 2558 sirignanos.

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Hondo

The Yankees came back heroically for Hondo last night, chewing up the Cubs in Wrigley to lower the NRN (nasty red number) to 1,300 sewells.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will give some work to Morton, that old salt -- 10 units on Chuckin' Charlie and the Pirates. Also, he will back The Good Weaver with a 10-unit play on the Angels.

[timbob]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Monday

Angels -125

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Today's MLB Picks
Tampa Bay at Milwaukee

The Rays look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is 1-5 in Chris Narveson's last 6 starts as a favorite from -110 to -150. Tampa Bay is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, JUNE 20
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Arrieta) 14.980; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.470
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Over

Game 953-954: Colorado at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 16.109; Cleveland (Carmona) 14.689
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105); Under

Game 955-956: San Diego at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (LeBlanc) 14.795; Boston (Miller) 17.304
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-185); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-185); Over

Game 957-958: NY Yankees at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 16.527; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.264
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+105); Under

Game 959-960: Toronto at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.589; Atlanta (Hudson) 14.736
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+100); Under

Game 961-962: LA Angels at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.353; Florida (Sanchez) 13.315
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over

Game 963-964: Houston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Happ) 14.720; Texas (Holland) 14.974
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-170); Over

Game 965-966: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.681; White Sox (Floyd) 15.166
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+120); Under

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.858; Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.072
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Over

Game 969-970: Detroit at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Penny) 14.336; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.868
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under

[timbob]

Ultimate

Baltilmore
Cincinnati
LAA

[Mr. IWS]

RICKENBACH

8* Atlanta Over
10* Texas Over

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SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado +110 over CLEVELAND

Juan Nicasio has made four starts since filling in for Jorge De La Rosa and he just might be here to stay. Nicasio has a solid three-pitch mix that includes a 90-95 mph fastball that tops out at 97 mph, a slider and a much-improved change-up. Nicasio had a breakout season in 2010. In 28 starts in the hitter-friendly CAL, Nicasio was 12-10 with a 3.91 ERA. Even more impressive was his strikeout to walk ratio. In 177 IP Nicasio walked only 31 while striking out 171. Nicasio is a strike-throwing machine and hasn’t missed a beat to start 2011. In nine Double-A starts he went 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA with 10 BB/63 K in 56.2 IP. In his four starts for the Rockies he’s struck out 18 in 24 IP while walking just five. No team in the AL has struck out more times than the Indians over the last 20 games and that bodes well for Nicasio. Fausto Carmona has given up four runs or more in seven straight starts. In three June starts he has posted an ERA of 8.22 and a WHIP of 1.89. Overall the Indians have lost five of Carmona’s last six starts and in 15 starts this season, Carmona has four wins. Nothing here to like about Carmona or the Indians laying a price against this under the radar rookie. Play: Colorado +110 (Risking 2 units).


N.Y. Yankees +112 over CINCINNATI

The Reds won once over the weekend against the Blue Jays but what is most disturbing is the four runs they scored in that three-game set. In fact, Cinci has scored just 13 runs in six interleague games and they’re going to have to break out if they’re going to beat the Yanks. The Yankees .901 OPS over the last week is tops in baseball. They’ve scored nine times or more in five of their past 10 games and they’re 5-1 over their past six games since Derek Jeter went down. Johnny Cueto has put up some great stats this year in just eight starts after coming off the DL. However, a close look reveals that he’s only made three home starts against the Pirates, Dodgers and Cards and his five road starts were at L.A., S.F., Atlanta, Philly, and at Wrigley with the wind blowing in. There are perhaps two challenging starts in that group (in Philly and at home to the Cards) and Cueto was ok in both but certainly not dominating (six runs in 13 innings). The Yanks should thrive in this park against Cueto or anyone else the Reds throw out there. Ivan Nova’s 54% groundball rate is key at this park. The kid is getting better with each start and his confidence is growing. Nova has to throw strikes or he’ll get himself into trouble but with 23 runs of support in his last two games and with a rare tag on the Yankees, we’ll gladly step in. Play: N.Y. Yankees +112 (Risking 2 units).


Toronto +110 over ATLANTA

Atlanta has a league-low .219 BA this month with a league-high 142 strikeouts. Atlanta’s .635 OPS against lefties is 29th in the majors and they’ll be facing a good one here in Ricky Romero. Romero’s 50%+ GB% and high strikeout rate combo is extremely unique. Among starters age 26 or younger, only Jaime Garcia has a similar profile. Romero’s 3.01 ERA is well deserved and he should have nothing but success at this park against the Braves. Also note that Chipper Jones may see only limited action, potentially just pinch-hitting, during this series as he battles a groin injury. Tim Hudson’s age and innings pitched could be catching up to him, as he begins to fade noticeably. He’s allowed five runs or more in three of his last seven starts and the teams he faced over that stretch were the Astros, Mets (twice), Padres, Angels, Philly (at Fulton County) and Washington. The Braves won two of those games. Hudson’s ERA in June is 5.79, his strikeout rate is down and he’s quite simply an overvalued pitcher at the age of 35. Play: Toronto +110 (Risking 2 units).

[timbob]

Monday Comps.

Sebastian-Colorado
Winner Line-Dodgers
OTM-OVER Yankees
Del Carson-Dodgers
Silver Key - TEXAS HOLLAND -L -175 over Houston
Kevin Kennedy-Dodgers

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Rangers -165 over Astros

Soccer Crusher
Play of the Day:

ElEntagElHarby + ElGounah UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Saudi Arabi

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Rangers -165 over Astros