6-21-11

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Rangers(RL)
W.Sox
Brewers(RL)

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JOE WIZ

DAILY FREE PICK
Under 9 runs bet. Houston and Texas

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COMP PLAYS

Jim Feist's Tuesday FREE Play:

06/21 10:15 PM MLB (929) MINNESOTA TWINS VS (930) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Take: (930) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
So how impressive is this run by the Minnesota Twins? Well, let's see what they do on the road against the defending champs. 4 of Minnesota's victories during that win streak were by 1 run and they were all at home. Starter Carl Pavano is 1-4 on the road with a 5.58 ERA with opponents hitting over .300. The Twins are 4-9 in Pavano's last 13 road starts. San Fran lefty Madison Bumgarner may have a 3-8 record, but the kid has pitcher great with a 3.21 ERA and just 1.80 over his last three starts. And the Giants are 14-3 in their last 17 interleague home games. Play the Giants!


Dave Cokin

Tuesday free play is the Braves


MARC LAWRENCE COMP


Play On: Baltimore w/Guthrie vs McDonald
When the Orioles send Mark Guthrie to the mound in Pittsburgh against James McDonald and the Pirates Tuesday evening they will do so knowing McDonald enters off a phony 'inside-out' win in his last start in which he last five inning while allowing 10 men on base in a 5-4 win at Houston this past Thursday. With Guthrie owning a sharp 2.85 road ERA this season, look for the Birds to come up big in the Steel City here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore. Thank you and good luck as always.

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MLB
Write-Up


Tuesday, June 21

Remember as interleague play starts, there are DHs used in games in the American League ballparks; pitchers bat in National League parks.

AL teams are 56-38 vs NL teams so far in interleague play; in last four days, they are 35-17.
Over is 23-21-1 in AL parks, 22-24-3 in NL parks, 45-45-4 overall.

Hot pitchers
-- Phillies won last six Halladay starts (4-0, 3.14).
-- McDonald is 3-1, 3.15 in his last six starts.
-- Chacin is 3-0, 0.90 in his last three starts.
-- Beckett is 4-1, 1.40 in his last eight starts.
-- Cueto is 2-1, 1.55 in his last four starts.
-- Stewart allowed two runs in seven IP in his first MLB start.
-- Mets are 10-0 when Gee starts (3-0, 1.38 in last four). Outman is 1-1, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Wilson is 3-0, 2.29 in his last five starts.
-- Buehrle is 5-2, 2.78 in his last eight starts.
-- Hochevar has 2.57 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Hellickson has a 3.03 RA in his last five starts. Greinke is 6-1, 5.29 in his last eight starts; Brewers scored 52 runs in those eight games.
-- Detroit won last four Scherzer starts (3-0, 5.55), scoring 35 runs.
-- Pavano is 2-0, 1.44 in his last three starts. Bumgarner is 3-2, 2.40 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- McClellan is 0-2, 8.40 in his last three starts.
-- Washington is 1-8 in last nine Hernandez starts, but he did shut out the Cardinals in his last start. Fister is 0-3, 4.50 in his last three starts.
-- Guthrie is 0-2, 4.94 in his last five starts.
-- Talbot is 0-3, 5.74 in his last three starts.
-- Latos is 0-2, 4.76 in his last couple starts.
-- Santana is 0-3, 5.06 in his last four starts.
-- Vazquez is 0-3, 9.16 in his last four starts.
-- Converted OF Gordon allowed two runs in 5.1 IP in his first start.
-- Minor is 0-2, 5.47 in five starts this season.
-- Lyles is 0-2, 6.19 in his last three starts.
-- Garza is 1-2, 5.73 in his last four starts.
-- Saunders is 0-2, 5.54 in his last couple starts.
-- Billingsley is 1-2, 11.19 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Five of last sven Philly road games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last ten Washington home games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Pittsburgh home games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Colorado road games stayed under total.
-- 11 of last 13 games at Fenway Park went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Angel games.
-- Six of last eight Bronx road games stayed under total.
-- Last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Mets' last eleven home games.
-- Six of last seven Texas home games went over the total.
-- Five of last six White Sox home games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine games at Miller Park stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Dodgers' last six home games.
-- Nine of last eleven San Francisco home games stayed under total.

Hot Teams
-- Phillies won seven of last nine games, but are 2-6 in last eight on road.
-- Colorado won five of its last six games. Indians won three of their last four games.
-- Washington won eight of its last nine games. Mariners won three of their last four.
-- Braves are 9-5 in their last fourteen games. Toronto is 5-1 in second game of a series if it lost the opener.
-- Red Sox won 14 of their last 16 games.
-- Angels won five of their last seven games.
-- Oakland won its last five games, allowing ten runs.
-- Bronx won nine of its last eleven games.
-- Arizona won four of its last five road games.
-- Rangers won three of their last four games.
-- White Sox are 11-6 in their last seventeen home games.
-- Tampa Bay is 10-4 in its last fourteen games, winning last four.
-- Minnesota won 14 of its last 16 games.

Cold Teams
-- Cardinals lost seven of last nine games (starting Ps 0-6).
-- Orioles lost six of their last nine games. Pittsburgh lost its last four games, scoring seven runs.
-- San Diego lost nine of its last ten games.
-- Mets lost three of their last four games.
-- Cincinnati lost four of its last five home games, scoring eight runs.
-- Florida lost 19 of its last 20 games.
-- Astros lost 13 of their last 17 games.
-- Cubs lost three of their last four road games.
-- Brewers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Kansas City lost four of its last five games.
-- Detroit lost four of its last five road games. Dodgers lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Giants lost their last four games, scoring seven runs.

Umpires
-- Balt-Pitt-- Four of last five Guccione games stayed under total.
-- Col-Clev-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Gibson games.
-- SD-Bos-- All three Conroy games this year went over the total.
-- LAA-Fla-- Four of last five Randazzo games went over the total.
-- NY-Cin-- Six of last seven Reyburn games stayed under total.
-- Tor-Atl-- Favorites won last five Campos games.
-- Hst-Tex-- Not enough data to analyze rookie umpire Ripperger
-- Chi-Chi-- Five of last six Hallion games went over the total.
-- TB-Mil-- Four of last five Wendelstedt games went over total.
-- Det-LA-- Underdog won eight of last nine Carapazza games.

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Silver Key

Free Pick for Tuesday ML Baseball

TEXAS WILSON -L -215 over Houston

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DAVID BANKS

Comp Play! Winner yesterday with the Over Houston / Texas

New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
A doozy of an Interleague match-up is set to go from the Great American Ball Park on Tuesday night when the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds partake in Game 2 of their scheduled three-game series; first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 ET.

The Yankees invaded the ‘Nati winners of their final two games in their weekend set with the Chicago Cubs, and now they set their sights on another NL opponent in the Reds; New York is a dominating 20-6 the L/26 times they took on an opponent from the NL Central heading into Monday night’s series opener. The Yankees currently sit in 2nd place within the AL East 1.5-games in back of the still red hot Boston Red Sox. They do however hold a two-game lead in the AL Wild Card race. Manager Joe Girardi’s squad has been simply fantastic for its betting supporters away from Yankee Stadium by going 18-12 ($560).

The Reds were served up a double dose of humility over the weekend when they barely snagged one of the three games played against the Toronto Blue Jays. Dropping two of three saw them fall to a rather mediocre 2-5 the L/7 times they matched wits with an AL East opponent. Still, manager Dusty Baker’s outfit only trails the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals by two-games with both clubs falling upon hard times of late. Cincinnati checks in with a 21-17 (-$334) home record heading into Monday’s series opener.

These non league representatives have only locked horns twice in interleague play since 2003; the Reds have won four of the six clashes with the ‘under’ cashing in five of the meetings. Brian Gordon will be making just his second career start and first on the road at this level in his career; he received a no decision in his MLB debut last Thursday vs. Texas tossing 5.1 innings of seven hit and two ER ball. Johnny Cueto was held back with a stiff neck to pitch in Game 2. He’s 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA allowing just 14 hits and a pair of ERs in his L/21 overall innings of work.

PICK: YANKEES/REDS UNDER

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Tuesday

Play Texas (-220) over Houston (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

Houston has lost 13 of the last 17 games and they have also lost 11 of the last 12 games vs. Texas. Houston has lost 8 consecutive road games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have also lost 27 of the last 42 games coming off an OVER the total.

Play Philadelphia (-165) over St. Louis (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST

Roy Halladay has won 12 of the last 13 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 3 consecutive road games when the total posted is between 7 and 7.5 runs. Roy Halladay is 2-0 vs. St. Louis over his career with an ERA of 1.13 and he is 2-0 over the last three overall starts with an ERA of 2.57.

Play San Francisco (-145) over Minnesota (Bonus)

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Paul Leiner

3-0 sweep yesterday, let's try for another

250* Royals -125

100* White Sox -135

50* Over 8 Angels/Marlins

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SCOTT RICKENBACH

8* Braves Over
10* Royals Over

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Sports Wagers

Colorado/CLEVELAND under 8½ Pinnacle
Since coming off the DL, Mitch Talbot has started seven games and has faced the L.A. Angels, Red Sox twice, the Yanks, Texas, Toronto and the Tigers. Search all day long and you won’t find a pitcher in the majors that has had a tougher stretch of games than the aforementioned seven. In five of those seven games, Talbot allowed two runs or less so his 5.02 ERA is the result of on e horrible start and one bad start. Now he gets a break when he faces a Rockies offense that has been unproductive on the road, averaging 3.5 RPG with a .675 OPS. If Talbot can keep his walks down he has the ability to be successful and has been very successful in five of seven starts. Cleveland’s offense has been struggling with a .625 June OPS, while barely surpassing 3.0 RPG for the month and things don’t get any easier here. Jhoulys Chacin’s brilliant rookie campaign shows skill set built for long-term success, even in Coors. He’s posted some amazing numbers this year that includes a 60% groundball rate, 81 k’s in 93 IP, a 2.81 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. The Indians are going to be hard pressed to score anything and the Rocks likely aren’t going to be much better. Play: Colorado/Cleveland under 8½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Chicago +128 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
Mark Buehrle’s numbers just don’t align with his poor skills and it’s just not possible for him to keep pitching the way he does and not get whacked once every three games. Here’s a guy that strikes out one batter every two innings. He is not a groundball pitcher and his split between FB’s and GB’s are dead even at 41%. Over the past month his strand rate has been 82% and therein explains the reason for his success. Fact is, Buehrle’s xERA is 4.97. He’s faced a slew of poor offensive teams that include the A’s (twice), Twins, M’s and Dodgers over the last four weeks and Buehrle has gone nine straight games allowing three runs or less. Guys like Justin Verlander do that, guys like Mark Buehrle do not and it’s just a matter of time before a whole string of disaster starts come his way. Matt Garza is the complete opposite in that he has outstanding skills and a whole lot of nothing to show for it. Garza’s ERA is 4.14. Ask 30 managers which pitcher they’d rather have throwing for them tonight and 30 (including Ozzie Guillen) would say Garza. Garza has 78 K’s and 29 walks in 72 innings pitched. He also has a strong GB/FB profile of 49%/28% but since coming off the DL on June 7, his GB profile is even stronger at 56%. The Cubbies came in here last night and won the opener after they had a decent series against the Yankees with the exception of the final three innings on Sunday. The South Side with Buehrle on the hill is a marriage that’s going to get turbulent very soon. Play: Chicago Cubs +128 (Risking 2 units).

MILWAUKEE –1½ +172 over Tampa Bay Pinnacle
Laying 1½-runs at home with NL rules is definitely risky but the price and pitching matchup adds to the appeal. If you prefer, you can lay the 25 cents on the Brewers and that wouldn’t be a bad bet either. First, the Brewers are 20-7 at home against right-handed starters and Jeremy Hellickson’s numbers are in for a huge regression. There is nothing about his skill set that makes his 3.09 ERA believable. His strikeout rate is average (54 in 84 IP) and so his BB/K ratio. His GB/FB profile is 35%/46% and over the last month it’s even worse at 31%/53%. His xERA is 4.80 and when a guy’s xERA is almost two runs higher than his actual ERA a correction is inevitable. His 23% hit rate is the reason that his ERA is so low but that, too, is in for a big correction. Hellickson is ripe to get whacked and the Brew Crew is the perfect setup for that to occur. Meanwhile Zack Greinke has an ERA of 5.23 but his xERA is 2.77. Can you name a pitcher with a larger ERA/xERA differential than Greinke? Greinke has fallen victim to a dramatically inflated hit % and deflated strand rate. When these correct themselves - and they will - Greinke's xERA tells us that the skills are still there. Greinke's control has never been better. While we expect that to rise ever so slightly, control is often the toughest thing to get back following an injury. Evidently not for Greinke. Check out that strikeout rate of 70 k’s in 53 IP. While we should expect some regression here, this is proof positive that Greinke is pitching better than his 5.23 ERA indicates. That command and skills are truly elite, as they blow away Greinke's standards set in his 2009 Cy Young season. That's not easy to do. It's easy to see that Greinke's sole blemish is his ability to keep the ball in the yard, as his hr/f and hr/9 are nearly double that of his 2010 levels. Once those numbers regress, and they will too, you will wish you had wagered on Greinke when the price was low and you had the chance. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +172 (Risking 2 units).

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RAS
WNBA

655 Phoenix +5.5
2011 WNBA YTD: 11-6. Beating closing line by +1.50 points per pick.

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Karl Garrett

Comp Play

Detroit -120 at LAD

Free play for Tuesday night is the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit has been scuffling, getting blanked last night at Chavez Ravine for their 4th loss in their last 6 games, but they will win tonight behind Max Scherzer who is seeking win # 10 of the first half of the season.

Scherzer has won his last 3 starts for the Motown Cats, while his counterpart Chad Billingsley has been battered for 17 runs his last 13-plus innings.

Have to expect the Tigers to get to Billingsley and pace Scherzer to his 10th win of the season.

Tigers take it!

5♦ DETROIT

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Matt Rivers

Comp Play

Comp play tonight is under the total in the A's-Mets game.

Josh Outman is coming off a 7 inning, 0 run effort in a win over Kansas City his last time out, while Mets starter Dillon Gee has been brilliant all season long.

Gee stands at 7-0 for the campaign, and sports a 2.86 ERA. His last 19 innings pitched have seen just 1 earned run score.

The Athletics are on a 3-1-1 under clip their last 5 games, while the Mets are 5-3-1 under the total in their last 9 games.

I would be shocked if this game eclipses the posted price.

Take the A's-Mets to go under the total in their first of three from Citi Field.

1♦ UNDER

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Jeff Benton

Comp Play

For Tuesday’s baseball freebie, we’ll play the Nationals as a small home favorite against Seattle.

I jumped on Washington on Sunday as the Nats took an eight-game winning streak into their series finale against the Orioles … and I got burned, as they lost 7-4 (costing me a 20 Dime play). Still, I don’t hesitate to jump back on the Nats tonight, as they’ve still won eight of nine overall and seven of eight at home.

Prior to Sunday’s contest, Washington had allowed just 18 runs during its eight-game overall winning streak and 19 runs during its seven-game home winning streak. Livan Hernandez was responsible for one of those pitching gems, Wednesday’s 10-0 home whitewash of the Cardinals. Hernandez pitched a complete-game, three-hitter in that one, walking none and striking out six.

With that effort, Hernandez at home is now 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and a 31-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio; on the road, he’s 0-6 with a 5.66 ERA, a 1.70 WHIP and 26 strikeouts vs. 23 walks. And if you take away one subpar home start against the Phillies on May 30 (four runs allowed in 6 1/3 innings), Hernandez has allowed just seven earned runs in 44 innings at home (1.43 ERA).

The Nationals swept the last two interleague series with Seattle (in 2005 and 2008), and tonight the Mariners (6-7 last 13) hand the ball to tough-luck right-hander Doug Fister, who is 3-8 despite a solid 3.53 ERA, including 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in his last four starts (Seattle is 4-10 in his 14 starts, 1-5 on the road).

2♦ WASHINGTON (Listing Hernandez)

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Chuck O'Brien

Comp Play

Tuesday’s complimentary baseball selection, go ahead and play the Phillies on the run line (-1½ runs) at St. Louis.

Absolutely devastating news for the Cardinals on Monday, as they learned they’ll be without slugger Albert Pujols for four to six weeks after the former MVP broke a bone in his forearm following a collision at first base in Sunday’s game against the Royals. Now without their best hitter – and arguably one of the best hitters in baseball history – anchoring the lineup, the Redbirds have to try to figure out Roy Halladay.

The Phillies’ ace enters this one at 9-3 with a 2.56 ERA, including 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA on the road, and in his last six trips to the mound, Halladay has led Philadelphia to six victories. Granted, only two of those six wins covered the run line, but I expect that to change tonight as Philadelphia opposes St. Louis rookie Kyle McClellan.

The Cardinals went 7-1 in McClellan’s first eight starts, but then on May 30 he gave up seven runs in four innings of a 7-3 home loss to the Giants. The right-hander was immediately placed on the disabled list after the game, but when he returned Wednesday at Washington, he gave up five runs in five innings of a 10-0 loss.

Two final points: 1) The Phillies are rolling, having won eight of their last 10 overall (six victories by more than one run), while St. Louis has dropped seven of nine, and 2) Halladay faced the Cardinals (and Pujols) once last season and gave up one earned run, seven hits and three walks with nine Ks in seven innings, winning easily 7-2.

3♦ PHILADELPHIA -1 1/2 runs (Listing Pitchers)