6-24-11

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Cappers Access

Royals
Angels(RL)

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Ultimate

NYY
Red Sox

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JOE WIZ

DAILY FREE PICK

Under 9 runs bet. Kansas City and Cubs

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SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +112 over CHICAGO

Despite the fact that Jim Riggleman gave new meaning to “walk-off win” yesterday, we’re not going to allow a manager with a career .445 win % decision to leave get in the way of backing perhaps the hottest combination in baseball in Jordan Zimmerman and the Washington Nationals. Zimmerman has allowed two runs or less in six straight and in eight of his last nine. The one game he allowed more than two, he allowed three. And how about his pitch-count in those games? Zimmerman threw 99, 101, 91, 97, 99, 94, 103 and 89 pitches respectively and he’s gone at least six full in every game. Zimmerman is throwing strike one to almost every hitter and he’s rarely behind in the count. Alex Rios and Juan Pierre are the only two current Chicago players who have ever faced Zimmerman and they have one hit against him in five AB’s (Ramon Castro has faced him twice also but seldom plays). The White Sox have lost Edwin Jackson’s last four starts and they’ve lost eight of his last 10 starts. Jackson has given up 102 hits in 86.2 IP for a BAA of .295. That’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher because he’s not. He has some good skills that include a decent strikeout rate and a GB tilt profile. However, he’s also wickedly inconsistent and is capable of throwing a disaster as much as he’s capable of throwing a gem. Additionally, the South Side has scored three runs or less in six of their last 11 at home and continue to underachieve at the dish. Play: Washington +112 (Risking 2 units).


Chicago +101 over KANSAS CITY

There are so many reasons to play the Cubbies here and we’ll start with wagering against Bruce Chen and not having to lay anything. Chen gets activated from the 15-day DL after being sidelined since mid-May with a strained back muscle. He had a 3.69 ERA through seven starts at the time of the injury but his skills suggest he should be avoided. His 5.05 xERA suggests his ERA is likely to rise as his 80% strand-rate and 27% hit rate normalize. Chen has a GB/LD/FB profile of 34%/20%/46% and the Cubbies hit southpaws much better than they hit righties. Furthermore, the Royals have lost five in a row, seven of eight and have just nine wins in their last 30 games. Meanwhile, the Cubbies have won 10 of Ryan Dempster’s last 14 road starts. Dempster has some ugly surface stats: 5.46 ERA, 1.48 WHIP. But his skills are right in line with those he has posted the last few years and some are even better. Dempster has a GB/FB rate of 48%/32%. His xERA is 3.83 and he’s been victimized by a low strand rate of 65%. At one point his ERA was 6.91 with a 58% strand rate and as those numbers begin to correct so has his ERA. Dempster has 88 K’s in 92 IP. His bad numbers provide us with a buy low opportunity and one that should not be missed, especially against a stiff like Chen. Play: Chicago +101 (Risking 2 units).


Toronto –101 over ST. LOUIS

The Cardinals are six games above .500 but have only one series win in their last five and that occurred last weekend when they barely took two of three (they won both games by a run) from the reeling Royals. Prior to that the Cards last series win came against the Cubbies. Jake Westbrook is batting practice out there and if there’s a pitcher that can get the Jays offense rolling again, he’s the guy. Everything about Jake Westbrook says "avoid" right now. His strikeout rate is way down and his walks are way up. His 5.16 ERA is well earned after allowing 97 hits in 82 innings while walking 35 and whiffing just 42. Only the ground balls keep coming but that's not enough, as even those are hit hard. First it was a forearm strain that kept Brandon Morrow out of action for the first three weeks of the season. Then it was his first 10 starts, which produced a 2-4 record with a 5.63 ERA. It's been a disappointing season all-around for a pitcher who many thought ready to take the next step up in 2011. There's nothing wrong with his base - control/strikeout rate/command - it's a carbon copy of the skill set that excited many after 2010. Lots of Ks (72 in 61 IP), a bit too many walks, but enough command to cover. His unlucky hit%/strand% combo, which fed the forecasts for a 2011 surge, has not gotten better, but worse. The effect remains the same: his ERA will rebound closer to his xERA (3.99) and that is an absolute. Even with a 5.63 ERA, Morrow’s skills are approaching elite status and it’s also worth noting that he rarely loses on grass, where the Jays have gone 10-3 in his last 13 starts on grass. Morrow against Westbrook against the Pujols-less Cards laying a penny? Get in line. Play: Toronto –101 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

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RAS
WNBA

653 LA Sparks +3.5

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MLB
Write-Up


Friday, June 24

Remember as interleague play starts, there are DHs used in games in the American League ballparks; pitchers bat in National League parks. Florida Marlins are home team for series with Seattle this week, even though series is at Safeco Field. Marlins will bat last, there isn't a DH in series. Marlins' ballpark isn't available this weekend.

AL teams are 66-60 vs NL teams so far in interleague play, but 10-22 the last three nights.
Over is 24-27-3 in AL parks, 32-35-4 in NL parks, 56-62-7 overall.
Hot pitchers
-- Stauffer has a 0.41 RA in his last three starts.
-- Lester is 4-0, 2.77 in his last four road starts. Maholm is 1-1, 1.86 in his last three starts.
-- Worley is 2-0, 2.12 in his three home starts.
-- Volquez is 1-1, 3.50 in three starts since coming back from minors.
-- Washington won last four Zimmerman starts (3-0, 1.32).
-- Baker is 3-0, 1.88 in his last three starts.
-- Dempster is 1-1, 1.96 in his last three starts. Chen was 4-1, 3.11 in his last six starts before going on DL.
-- Morrow is 3-0, 2.10 in his five road starts.
-- Pelfrey is 1-1, 2.05 in his last three starts.
-- WRodriguez is 3-0, 0.69 in his last four starts. Tampa Bay won last three Shields starts (2-0, 1.44).
-- Wolf is 1-0, 1.31 in his last three starts.
-- Carrasco is 3-0, 0.42 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lowe is 0-1, 5.81 in his last five starts.
-- Duke is 0-2, 6.14 in his last four starts. Coke is 0-2, 5.51 in his last three starts.
-- Moscoso is 0-2, 5.06 in his last three starts.
-- Jakubauskus has a 6.10 RA in his last two starts.
-- Burnett is 3-3, 5.06 in his last seven starts. Jimenez is 1-2, 6.23 in his last three starts.
-- Harrison is 0-2, 4.96 in his last three starts.
-- White Sox lost last four EJackson starts (0-1, 4.97).
-- Westbrook has a 5.46 RA in his last five starts.
-- Haren is 2-3, 6.00 in his last five starts. RDe la Rosa has a 5.52 RA in his first three starts.
-- JSanchez is 0-2, 4.60 in his last three starts.
-- Marlins lost last five Nolasco starts (0-3, 9.45). FHernandez is 1-2, 4.57 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Atlanta road games stayed under the total.
-- Pirates' last three home games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-2 in last seven Arizona games.
-- Five of last six Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last ten Colorado road games stayed under total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Mets' last six road games.
-- Six of last eight Houston home games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Washington road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of Brewers' last nine games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in Royals' last ten home games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Cardinals' last eight home games.
-- Over is 8-3-2 in Dodgers' last thirteen games.
-- 10 of last 13 San Francisco home games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Florida games stayed under the total.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won six of their last seven road games.
-- Boston won 13 of its last 15 road games. Pirates won three of their last four home games.
-- Detroit won nine of its last 12 home games. Arizona won seven of its last eight road games.
-- Bronx won six of its last seven home games. Rockies won six of their last nine games.
-- Washington won 11 of its last 12 games. White Sox won four of last five home games overall.
-- Phillies won nine of their last twelve games. Oakland won six of its last eight games, but lost last two.
-- Minnesota won 15 of its last 19 games, but lost last two.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last ten road games.
-- Mets won five of last six road series openers. Texas won three of its last four home games.
-- St Louis won six of its last nine home games.
-- Dodgers won three of their last four games. Angels won three of their last four road games.
-- Giants won three of their last four home games.

Cold Teams
-- Padres lost four of their last five home games/
-- Reds lost four of their last six games. Orioles lost eight of 11.
-- Kansas City lost seven of its last eight games. Cubs lost five of their last six road games.
-- Brewers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last eight home games.
-- Toronto lost its last four games, scoring three runs. Cardinals lost nine of last twelve games (starting Ps 1-7).
-- Indians lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Mariners lost four of their last five games. Florida lost its last eight games outside of south Florida.

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Silver Key

Free Pick for Friday ML Baseball

SAN FRANCISCO SANCHEZ -L -125 over Cleveland

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WUNDERDOG

(MLB)
Game: Seattle at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Florida +1.5 runs -125 (runline)

The Seattle Mariners will have a well established top of the rotation to go after the Florida Marlins tonight on the road. There is a major difference, however, as to what he brings to the table at home vs. the road. Hernandez stands at 57-36 in 93 career home starts, but just 49-46 on the road. More recently, King Felix and Seattle stand in at 9-15 in his last 24 road starts, so a far cry from a slam dunk here. That sounds pretty poor, but when Felix has taken to the mound on the road vs. a team with a losing record the M's carry just a 1-9 mark in their last 10. Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins have benefitted when he has pitched with an extra day of rest going 19-7 in his last 26 starts on five days rest. Play Florida on the runline

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EasyBaseballBetting

Our systems say to go for:

Marlins (+143),
Orioles (+110),
Cardinals (-105),
Red Sox (-161),
Twins (+133),
Nationals (+115).

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Paul Leiner

100* Over 6.5 Dodgers/Angels

50* Astros +115

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DAVID BANKS

(comp)
Winner on wed, Under on Minnesota / San Francisco

Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Freeway Series picks back up in interleague action on Friday night when Dan Haren and Angels invade Chavez Ravine to battle Rubby De La Rosa and the Dodgers in Game 1; first pitch is set for 10:10 ET.

The Angels enter this weekend Interleague set with the in-state rival Dodgers winners of their third straight series against NL opposition after taking two of three from the woeful Florida Marlins this past week. Wednesday’s 6-5 extra innings win moved manager Mike Scioscia’s squad to 6-3 (+$324) against its nine National League opponents. Overall, the Halos have cost their betting backers upwards of $580 on the year, but they’ve been at their best in visiting ball parks going 22-19 and churning out $412 worth of profit.

Manager Don Mattingly’s Dodgers had dropped five in a row heading into their series finale with the Houston Astros before kicking off a three-game Interleague set with Detroit. Since then, they’ve won three of four after dropping the series finale with the Tigers in a slugfest 7-5. The hosts will hope the momentum they gained there will allow them to compete with the Angels who’ve flat out had their number recently. As it is, the Dodgers come in ranked 26th on the 2011 money list costing those that backed them a shade over $1000 to date with $786 of that deficit coming at home where they’ve only managed to win 18 of 40 games played.

The Halos took five of these teams’ six meetings a year ago which included a sweep at Dodgers Stadium; the ‘over’ cashed in four of the games. Anaheim is 8-2 its L/10 series openers played, but stand just 1-6 the L/7 times Dan Haren threw at a losing opponent. The Dodgers are just 1-7 their L/8 games against the AL West, and this will be rookie Rubby De La Rosa’s first start against an American League opponent; he’s lasted no more than five innings in each of his first three starts at the Big League level.

PICK: DODGERS/ANGELS OVER

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Friday

Play Boston (-160) over Pittsburgh (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST

Boston has won 44 of the last 60 games coming off six or more home games and pitcher, Jon Lester is 6-0 in road games this season with an ERA of 3.12. Pittsburgh pitcher, Paul Maholm has lost 6 of the last 7 inter-league games and he has also lost 15 of the last 22 games as an underdog of +150 or higher.

Play Seattle (-155) over Florida (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 10:10 PM EST

Florida has lost 14 consecutive games after having lost six or seven of the last eight games and pitcher, Ricky Nolasco is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 7.05. Seattle pitcher, Felix Hernandez is 1-0 vs. Florida over his career with an ERA of 3.68 and he has an ERA of 3.34 in all starts this season.

Play LA Angels (-140) over LA Dodgers (Bonus)
Edit/Delete Message

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MLBPredictions

Kevin
Winner yesterday with Arizona

1*Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros – UNDER 7 RUNS (-110)

James Shields is on the mound for the Rays, and he is coming off two excellent starts. Shields has gone back-to-back with complete game shutouts, a rare feat for pitchers (not to mention, he had 0 walks and 10 strikeouts against Florida on Sunday). Shields is 7-4 on the season with a stellar 2.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and batters hitting just .214 against him. Shields has had quality starts in 9 of his last 10, and in my opinion looks like one of the major leagues best pitchers right now. Shields will be in tough against Wandy Rodriguez, as the lefty goes for the Astros tonight. Rodriguez is 5-3 on the season with a 2.88 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Over his last 4 starts Rodriguez has allowed just 2 earned runs (both in the same game), and has gone at least 6 innings in each. This year the UNDER is 9-5 when Shields starts, and 8-3 when Rodriguez starts. Note that the UNDER is 7-3 int he Rays last 10 overall, and 46-18-2 in their last 66 games as a favorite. The UNDER is also 5-1 in the Rays last 6 during game 1 of a series, and 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The UNDER is also 9-1 in Shields’ last 10 starts with 4 days rest, and 17-5 in his last 22 starts as a favorite. The UNDER is 12-5-1 in Shields’ last 18 starts overall, and 15-5-1 in his last 21 starts with the total set at 7-8.5. The UNDER is 22-9-2 in the Astros last 33 interleague games vs a right-handed starter, and 9-4-1 in their last 14 interleague home games. The UNDER is also 7-1-1 in Rodriguez’s last 8 9 starts overall, and 8-1-1 in his last 10 starts as an underdog. The UNDER is 22-8-1 in Rodriguez’s last 31 starts with 5 days of rest.
I’m all over the UNDER here with a total set at 7.

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HandicapperSports

7:05pm/ New York Yankees -135/ 5 units
8:10pm/ Washington +115/ 3 units
10:15pm/ Cleveland +115/ 3 units

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GC MLB Play

Friday MLB Total of the Week with 92% System + Double100% Blowout System and 90% Dog system lead Solid Friday card. MLB Top play cashes With Cards on Thursday. MLB on a 29-9 run. Free MLB System play below.

On Friday the free MLB System Play is on the Atlanta Braves. Game 951 at 10:05 eastern. The Braves fit a nice system that plays on certain road teams off a home favored win and scored 5 or more runs with 4 or less men left on base, vs an opponent off a road win. The Braves have won 8 of 12 with a day off and take on a Padre team that has not played well in night games. San Diego is averaging 2.8 runs on .224 hitting at night and are even worse when playing at home. hey are averaging just 2.5 runs and hitting .208 here at home this season. Tonight they take on D. Lowe who has a career 2.76 era vs San Diego and has allowed 3 runs in 11+ innings in his last 2 starts here. Lowe Opposes T. Stauffer who has a 4.76 era vs the Braves in his short career. Look for the Braves to take game one of the series. On Friday The MLB Total of the week from a 92% system and a Double 100% Blowout system are the lead play from a card that also has a 90% dog system. MLB Top play cashes again with St. Louis. MLB on a solid 29-9 run. Jump on and start the weekend right. For the free Play take the Braves. GC