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We think the markets are reading this one the wrong way, and with the 8’s now having been opened up as “win” numbers we can get in play.
As bad as things have been for the Twins from an injury standpoint, they might be sending out their weakest lineup of the season today, with Delmon Young being added to the DL, and Joe Mauer also sitting out. They only have three opening-day left, and in addition to pitcher Carl Pavano having to bat, will send out three other players at .190 or less for the season. Having been held to one run five times over the last nine games they are hard-pressed to make anything Chris Naverson, who can be a tough read on the first look. The expect Minnesota lineup has just five career at-bats against him. And off of alst night’s blowout the entire Brewer bullpen is rested and ready, including closer John Axford and his sparkling 2-0/0.86 from the mound, and 14 consecutive scoreless appearances either Home or Away.
But Pavano will keep the Twins in the hunt. He is on a terrific 3-0/1.09 over his last four starts, and it has been seven straight games in which he has worked at least a full seven IP. He is doing what he does best, throwing strikes and getting ground balls, and that makes big innings difficult to come by.
Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball but his team struggles scoring runs. Being a big favorite has no value at all. This should be another low-scoring game and I like Oakland at this value. Until the Phillies can wake their offense back up, they should never have this kind of advantage. Take the A's at a great value
The Braves look to be pretty good value laying the extra run this afternoon at San Diego. Consider that the Padres continue to falter at Petco Park, now losing 27 of their first 42 at home after last night's 10-1 shellacking at the hands of Atlanta. And Braves starter Tim Hudson has long dominated San Diego, with a 5-0 career mark, and is off his mot dominating start of 2010 when shutting out the Blue Jays on 2 hits through 8 innings as well as hitting a 2-run homer. Meanwhile, the desperate Padres are dipping into their bullpen to find a starter this afternoon, summoning reliever Cory Luebke to the mound. Play Braves on Run Line
This price is relatively cheap, particularly for a Yankees team that is 20-4 in day games this season. New York recovered from a 4-2 loss in Friday's opener to pound out 15 hits in an 8-3 win yday behind CC Sabathia. Now they wil face lightly regarded Juan Nicasio, who despite a 3-0 TSR L3 starts, also has a 6.89 ERA over that time frame. Yankees starter Ivan Nova also has a 3-0 team start record L3 starts, but has a much more impressive 3.05 ERA. Colorado remains a terrible road underdog at 19-43 since the start of last season. Should be an easy play here. Take NY Yankees.
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