7-1-11

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ROCKDEMAN SPORTS

Detroit Tigers ML (-125) Brad Penny starts

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LINES2WIN

1:07pm start


Phillies ML (+135)

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Today's CFL Picks

FRIDAY, JULY 1
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (6/29)
Game 493-494: Winnipeg at Hamilton (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 109.085; Hamilton 114.844
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 7; 58
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 9 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+9 1/2); Over

Game 495-496: Toronto at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 106.533; Calgary 116.809
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 10 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7 1/2); Under

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Today's MLB Picks

Florida at Texas

The Marlins look to build on their 5-0 record in Anibal Sanchez' last 5 Friday starts. Florida is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+160). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 1
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.175; Washington (Gorzelanny) 15.888
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-135); Under

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.321; Toronto (Romero) 15.229
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+135); Over

Game 905-906: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Jackson) 15.548; Cubs (Wells) 14.620
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-120); Under

Game 907-908: San Francisco at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.429; Detroit (Penny) 15.589
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over

Game 909-910: Cleveland at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 16.074; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.266
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Under

Game 911-912: NY Yankees at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 17.378; NY Mets (Niese) 16.474
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Over

Game 913-914: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.716; Tampa Bay (Davis) 14.985
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+115); Over

Game 915-916: Baltimore at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 13.656; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.999
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-170); Under

Game 917-918: Boston at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 15.658; Houston (Norris) 13.584
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Under

Game 919-920: Florida at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 15.897; Texas (Ogando) 14.849
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+160); Over

Game 921-922: Kansas City at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 14.293; Colorado (Nicasio) 15.079
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-165); Over

Game 923-924: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.242; Minnesota (Liriano) 14.432
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-120); Under

Game 925-926: Arizona at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 14.064; Oakland (Harden) 14.502
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Over

Game 927-928: LA Dodgers at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.324; LA Angels (Chatwood) 16.043
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Under

Game 929-930: San Diego at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Moseley) 16.260; Seattle (Vargas) 14.607
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Seattle at Connecticut

The Sun look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings between the two teams. Connecticut is the pick (- 4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 1
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 601-602: San Antonio at New York (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 113.279; New York 113.622
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 168
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2; 164 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+2); Over

Game 603-604: Seattle at Connecticut (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 111.471; Connecticut 118.023
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 6 1/2; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Chicago at Phoenix (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 111.464; Phoenix 113.357
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 175
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5 1/2); Under

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Baseball Crusher

Play of the Day:

Nationals -140 over Pirates

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Soccer Crusher

Play of the Day:

Boa + Salgueiro UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil

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Sportsbook Investing

Play of the Day:

Nationals -140 over Pirates

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Baseball Prophet

Marlins/Rangers over 8.5

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Insider Sports Report

4* Chicago White Sox (Jackson) -115 over Chicago Cubs (Wells)
Range: +100 to -135

3* Cleveland (Masterson)/Cincinnati (Arroyo) UNDER 9
Range: 9.5 to 8.5

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Vegas wise guy

Milwaukee(Gallardo) @ Twins(Liriano): Minnesota +106

Again, I always look for a way to back a home underdog and in this spot, there are ingredients which tell me to do just that. First, and most glaring, is the Brewers 15-27 road record. They are coming into this series losers of 3 in a row after getting swept at Yankee Stadium. Secondly, we have a revenge situation between these two pitchers. Gallardo was masterful in beating Liriano just last Saturday in Milwaukee 11-1, a game where Liriano got absolutely pounded. Pundents will point to Liriano’s less than stellar home success and ask how I could possibly back a guy with those horrible home numbers. Well, advanced stats give me the answer. Liriano has a .338 BABIP on his home field indicating that he has been a tremendously unlucky pitcher in his home park. His Home ERA is a whopping 7.62. Yet when we look at his advanced ERA’s, it paints an entirely different story. Yes he does have a 1.42 WHIP. But his xFIP is a remarkable 3.12 at home, his tERA is a measly 2.75, and his QERA is a very good 3.59. Lets compare those advanced stats to Gallardo when he pitches on the road. Gallardo, like Liriano, has been unlucky on the road with a .328 BABIP. He also has a high 1.51 WHIP. He also has a remarkable 3.3 xFIP. But his tERA of 4.39 and his 3.78 QERA are higher than Liriano. I would argue that based on advanced statistics, Liriano is JUST AS GOOD AS Gallardo. Recreational bettors will look at that 11-1 thrashing the Twins took last Saturday, and for that matter the entire series because the Twins got swept by the Brewers. So, we have starting pitching revenge as well as team revenge entering this series, subjective factors that are extremely important in EVERY sport you care to invest in. Also, since H/A Offensive Power Ratings are within 5% of each other when looking at these teams, I would argue that the subjective factors are most important here. Consider this as well before you fade this Twins team off into the sunset for the rest of this season: As bad as this team has been and with the terrible start they had, they sit just 8.5 games out of the lead in the AL Central. This team will be extremely motivated from now up until the All Star break to position themselves for a second half run in this division, a run that noone including myself, deemed possible about 4 weeks ago.

Take Minnesota +106

LA Dodgers(Kuroda) @ LA Angels(Chatwood): LA Angels -107

Same situation as the Brewers/Twins game. You have pitching revenge and team revenge. Chatwood beat Kuroda last weekend and the Angels took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers. So, I should be backing the Dodgers right? Nope, I am grabbing the Halos here at a bargain price. This Dodger team has all kinds of turmoil in their organization. They filed bankruptcy last week. They sit in last place in the NL West. This team just shows absolutely no motivation to speak of. They beat the Twins 15-0 early this week, then followed that up with 2 nonchalent losses to them. Also factor in that the Angels just own this Dodger team. While Kuroda has been great, the Dodgers for whatever reason just do not hit when he is on the mound. Kuroda hasn’t won a game in nearly 6 weeks. Chatwood, on the other hand, is seemingly turning the corner after each start. He has allowed just one earned run in his last 14 innings of work and has gone at least 7 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts. But I believe this game, nor this series, will be about pitching. It will be about one team being in a pennant race and the other planning off season golfing vacations. And with each passing day, there is nothing that the Halos would rather do than put nails in their SoCal rivals coffin.

Take LA Angels -107

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CAPPERS ACCESS

W.Sox
D'Backs

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JOE WIZ

DAILY FREE PICK

Under 7 runs bet. Seattle and San Diego

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MLB
Write-Up


Friday, July 1

Remember as interleague play starts, there are DHs used in games in the American League ballparks; pitchers bat in National League parks.

AL teams are 106-102 vs NL teams so far in interleague play.
Over is 44-46-9 with a DH, 43-60-7 without one, 87-106-15 overall.

Hot pitchers
-- Romero is 2-1, 1.13 in his last three starts. Kendrick has a 3.21 RA in his last three starts.
-- EJackson has a 2.81 RA in his last four starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-0, 2.11 in his last three road starts.
-- Masterson has a 3.12 RA in his last four starts, but no wins in his last ten outings. Reds won last three Arroyo starts (3-0, 4.09) scoring 18 runs.
-- Niese is 4-1, 3.11 in his last six starts; he did have an issue in his last start with a rapid heartbeat, but was checked out and is OK. Bronx won last four Nova starts (3-0, 3.71).
-- WDavis is 3-0, 3.32 in his last three starts. Westbrook is 2-0, 1.83 in his last five starts.
-- Jurrjens is 2-0, 1.59 in his last couple starts.
-- Norris has a 1.73 RA in his last four starts.
-- ASanchez is 0-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.
-- Chatwood is 2-0, 0.64 in his last two starts. Kuroda has a 2.63 RA in his last four starts, but is winless in his last seven outings, with LA giving him total of 11 runs.
-- Vargas is 2-1, 1.80 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Washington lost last five Gorzelanny starts (0-3, 6.33). Morton is 1-2, 13.91 in his last three starts.
-- Wells is 0-2, 7.50 in his last six starts.
-- Penny is 0-2, 4.30 in his last four starts.
-- Guthrie is 1-3, 5.65 in his last seven starts.
-- Gallardo is 1-2, 6.00 in his last four starts. Liriano is 1-2, 4.18 in his last four outings.
-- Wakefield is 2-2, 5.13 in his last four starts.
-- Ogando is 0-3, 13.50 in his last three starts.
-- Nicasio has a 6.86 RA in his last four starts. Duffy is 1-2, 4.83 in his last six outings.
-- Collmenter is 0-3, 7.00 in his last three starts.
-- Moseley is 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Five of Pirates' last six road games stayed under the total.
-- Phillies' last six games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight White Sox road games stayed under total.
-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine San Francisco road games.
-- Six of last seven Cincinnati home games stayed under total.
-- Four of Mets' last five games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals' last six road games.
-- Last four Atlanta home games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Boston road games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Florida road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 11-5 in last sixteen games at Coors field.
-- Eight of last twelve Milwaukee road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Oakland home games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Dodger road games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in San Diego's last six road games.

Hot Teams
-- Pittsburgh won six of its last eight games.
-- Phillies won six of their last nine games.
-- White Sox won four of their last five road games.
-- Giants won seven of last nine games, but lost last two, scoring a total of three runs. Detroit is 12-6 in its last 18 home games.
-- Bronx won its last five games, scoring 36 runs. Mets won six of their last eight games.
-- Cardinals won their last three games, scoring 20 runs. Tampa Bay won five of its last seven games.
-- Braves won eight of their last ten games.
-- Minnesota won nine of its last ten home games.
-- Angels won six of their last seven games.
-- Padres won their last four games, allowing six runs.

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost its last three games, scoring eight runs.
-- Toronto lost three of its last four games.
-- Cubs lost six of their last nine games overall, 13 of 17 on road.
-- Cincinnati lost five of its last seven home games. Indians are 4-9 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Orioles lost 12 of their last 16 road games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last nine home games. Red Sox lost six of their last eight games overall. Texas lost three of last four home games.
-- Brewers lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Marlins lost 11 of their last 14 road games, but won last two.
-- Colorado lost five of its last six games. Royals lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games.
-- Oakland lost six of its last eight games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last nine games.

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Silver Key

Free Pick for Friday ML Baseball

ATLANTA JURRJENS -R -165 over Baltimore