7-1-11

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EARLY SHARP MOVES

Rot#: 903
BALT O/8
Rot#: 925
AZ U/7
Rot#: 911
NYY U/9
Rot#: 905
CUBS U/13

WNBA MOVES:
Rot#: 603
SEATTLE U/149
Rot#: 601
NY U/164.5

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Realmoneysports

Owen Miller
Yankees ML -120 (med)

Robert Montgomery
Orioles/Braves Under 7.5 -110 (Med)

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Sports Handicapper King

MLB BASEBALL
10* Boston Red Sox
10* Los Angeles Angels

CFL FOOTBALL
10* Hamilton Tigercats -8

comp Tampa Bay Rays

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NORM HITZGES

293-278 -20.70

Toronto -155 vs Philadelphia
San Francisco +115 vs Detroit
Tampa Bay -130 vs St. Louis
Milwaukee/Minnesota Under 7.5
LA Angels -115 vs LA Dodgers

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BIGFELLA SPORTS-SPITTIN WINNERS

5* MLB* FAT POCKETS* LA Angels -120 ML
3* MLB* EASY MONEY* Oakland Athletics -105 ML
3* WNBA* LADIES NIGHT* NY Liberty +3 -120
3* WNBA* LADIES NIGHT* Seattle Storm+5
3* WNBA* LADIES NIGHT* Phoenix Mercury -5.5 -120
5* CFL* TOP PLAY* Calgary Stamperers -7 -120
3* CFL* REGULAR PLAY* Winnipeg Blue Bombers +8.5

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Paul Leiner

250* Redsox -140

100* Over 9 Yanks/Mets

50* White Sox -120

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Jason Storm

Free Pick Run is a Documented 93-48-1 Overall Record

Free Pick: Marlins +155 Listed Pitchers
Sometimes you got to throw the season stats out the window and ask what have you done for me lately.

Alexi Ogando started off his first season as a starting pitcher better than anyone imagine. He started the season 7-0 and with an ERA at 2.10. In his first 12 starts, he had 10 quality outings. That's all very impressive but lately he hasn't been nearly as good. In his last 3 games, he is 0-3 with a ERA around 9 and a WHIP above 2. These numbers are not just bad they are awful, which raises an interesting question. What is wrong with Ogando?

I believe I know the answer. Lets go back to the beginning of Ogando's career. When he first started in the minor leagues, he wasn't a pitcher. He was a hitter and everyday player. In 2006, he made the switch and had instant success. In his first year pitching, he went 5-0 with an ERA of 0.52. The success continued throughout the different ranks of the minor league. When it was all said and done, Ogando spent 4 seasons in the minor leagues compiling a 11-3 record, an ERA of 1.73, a WHIP under 1 and spectacular strikeout to walk numbers.

In 2010 he was called up to the majors as a relief pitcher and his success continued in the pros. Last season in 41 innings of relief work, Ogando had an ERA of 1.30 and dominated major league hitters, holding them to a BAA of .208. It's clear this guy can pitch. This season they made him a starter, and again he had great success. Like I mentioned in his first 12 starts, he was 7-0 with an ERA of 2.10. Obviously he has the tools and ability to be successful, so the question remains: What is wrong with Ogando? The answer is he has a dead arm. Now this isn't something that's been released by the Rangers, but it fits. Let me explain.

Ogando has pitched 91 innings this season. That mark is already a career high at any level. Before that, his highest was last season when he threw 72 IP between the minors and majors spread out through an entire season. Let me put this in perspective, in his 4 seasons in the minor leagues, he threw 112 innings total. That's over 4 years! In 3 months, he has pitched 91 innings. Remember this guy hasn't been a pitcher his entire life. He hasn't been building stamina throughout the years. His body is not use to this and now its shutting down.

His arm is dead and needs to be rested. It's not going to magically get better. He is not himself right now. In his last 3 starts, he has 5 combined strikeouts. In his previous 12 starts, he averaged 5 strikeouts per game. He those same 3 starts, he has allowed 10 earned runs. In his previous 12 starts, he allowed a combined 17 ER and that's over 82 IPs. In his last 3 starts, he has averaged less than 3 innings per outing. This isn't the same Ogando.

If this was the same Ogando, the Rangers being a -165 favorite would make sense. But Ogando isn't himself. That line is very inflated. To top it off, his counterpart will be the Marlins best pitcher right now in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has a 1.8 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has had a terrific season on a not so good team. I do think the Marlins can score enough runs off an injured Ogando to put this game away early. We are taking the big inflated underdog.

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WUNDERDOG

(MLB)
MLB 13-6 last 19 picks +$1950
1 OF 3

Game: Cleveland at Cincinnati (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cincinnati -125 (moneyline)

There is no doubt that the Cleveland Indians surprised everyone this season by jumping out of the gate at 20-8. This is a world of what have you done for me lately and the Tribe can't sustain or measure up to that statement. Cleveland has since been 22-29 over their last 51 games, and more recently 12-22. The Reds' offense has caught fire and their last seven games show them scoring 41 runs, or just shy of 6 per contest. The Tribe isn't holding up well at all as a dog of +150 or less at 4-18 in their last 22, including 1-7 behind Masterson. The Reds are 48-23 in their last 71 when facing an opponent that scored 2 or less in their last game.
This one goes to Cincinnati.

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MLBPredictions

Kevin
Winner yesterday Detroit Run Line -1.5

San Francisco Giants @ Detroit Tigers - TIGERS TO WIN (-121)

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EasyBaseballBetting

Our systems say to go for:

Padres (+122),
Giants (+115),
Pirates (+123),
Phillies (+144),
Devil Rays (-130),
Twins (+108).

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David Banks

(comp)
Winner yestreday Under Texas / Houston

Cleveland Indians vs. Cincinnati Reds
An in-state rivalry is once against set to go in Interleague action on Friday night when the Cleveland Indians invade the Great American Ball Park for the first of three-games slated to go against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Tribe got a much needed day off on Thursday after playing each of the last six days on the west coast against the Arizona Diamondbacks and defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants. Though they got swept by the Bay, the Indians took two of three from the D’Backs beating both Ian Kennedy and Zach Duke to move to 18-23 as a visitor (-$52) and 42-37 overall on the year; the $1014 that manager Manny Acta’s squad has reeled in checks in as the second best mark in the entire league.

The Reds have been one of the toughest teams to forecast this baseball betting season evidenced by the fact that they’re just 42 games up and 40 games down for the entire year costing MLB bettors a shade over $305 overall.
However, they return home off a huge series win at The Trop where they took two of three from the Tampa Bay Rays after getting the best of James Shields as +165 underdogs on Wednesday. Though they carry a -$450 deficit at home to date, the Reds have been at their best in front of the hometown faithful by scratching out a 22-19 overall record.

Cleveland beat Cincinnati every way imaginable in these teams first 2011 Interleague match-up back in late May. The three-game sweep saw them outscore the Reds 19-9 with the ‘over’ cashing in two of the three contests. That said; Cincy’s dominated the Tribe dating back to the 2008 season winning eight of the 12 overall games. Cleveland has won each of its L/7 encounters with NL Central opposition, but is just 1-5 in Justin Masterson’s L/6 starts. Cincy’s just 5-11 its L/16 Interleague battles, but a rock solid 6-2 in Bronson Arroyo’s L/8 home starts vs. a team with a +.500 record.
PICK: Cleveland/Cincinnati OVER

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LINES2WIN

Mets ML -108 (Small)
Tigers -126 (Med)
Pitt/Wash Under 8 (Small)

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Sport System Specialists

Yesterday 3-2 +21,22
Overall since jun.17 +71,51

PHI ml +145 risking 6,75

NYY -1,5 +140 risking 2

BOS -1,5 +130 risking 10,13

ATL -1,5 +140 risking 2

CIN -1,5 +165 risking 6,75

STL ml +125 risking 6,75

TEX -1,5 +130 risking 10,13

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Johnny Detroit

WNBA
Play of the Day
(going for 4 in a row)

#604 Connecticut -4.5

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CHASE DIAMOND

30 DIMES ANGELS -120 ML