7-2-11

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Insider Sports Report

Premier Picks® For 07/02/11


4* Boston (Miller) -140 over Houston (Happ)
Range: -125 to -165

3* Tampa Bay (Niemann) -120 over St. Louis (McClellan)
Range: -105 to -140

3* San Diego (Luebke)/Seattle (Fister) UNDER 6.5
Range: 7 to 6

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ULTIMATE SPORTS

1 UNIT* MLB* LA Angels ML

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Saturday
Play Atlanta (-170) over Baltimore (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST

Baltimore has lost 7 of the last 9 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 12 games as an underdog of +150 or higher. Jake Arrieta has lost 5 consecutive games as a road underdog of +150 to +200 and he has an ERA of 4.50 this season.

Play Philadelphia (-145) over Toronto (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:00 PM EST

Toronto has lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 21 of the last 31 day games. Philadelphia pitcher, Roy Halladay has won 17 of the last 19 games coming off a game where he did not walk a batter and he has also won 14 of the last 16 games as a favorite of -110 or higher.
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Play Boston (-140) over Houston (Bonus)

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Sports Wagers

Los Angeles +119 over L.A. ANGELS Pinnacle
Clayton Kershaw keeps getting better. In 2010, Kershaw was one of just four National League starters with 200+ strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. Want to know the scariest thing about Kershaw? At age 23, he’s getting better with every start. Kershaw's increased velocity on his fastball (92.5 in 2010, 93.1 in 2011) and slider (81.2 in 2010, 83.4 in 2011) are all contributing to his success. Kershaw's ERA and corresponding xERA history back-up what we know to be true: this is an exciting arm. Look at that WHIP history. Kershaw is getting stingy with baserunners and the Dodgers are reaping the benefits. Even more exciting is Kershaw's control which took a huge step forward in 2010 and now again in 2011. The 132 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) says it all. This is an elite skill set getting better before our eyes. As Kershaw's back-to-back six-run outings to open the month of June illustrate, young pitchers are more susceptible to the occasional blowup. The good news is that those blowups provide us with the occasional take-back opportunity and this is one of those rare times that you’re going to get a tag on perhaps the best lefty in the league or pretty damn close. We could tell you all about Jered Weaver but in this case it’s does not matter. When a tag is being offered on Kershaw, take it every time, as it’s a winning proposition over time. Play: Los Angeles +119 (Risking 2 units).

DETROIT –1½ +128 over San Francisco Pinnacle
Here’s what we know for sure: The Tigers offense is one of the best in the league while the Giants offense is like an 80-year-old walking up a hill. We also know that the Tigers bats are hot right now with a BA of .294 over their past 10 games with 52 runs scored. The Giants offense will never be hot nor warm. So, in terms of offense this one is a complete mismatch. The Giants win ball games because of a pitching staff that is as good and as reliable as any in the game. Give them the Royals, Yanks, Twins or Indians staff and they’d probably have the worst record in baseball. Well, Barry Zito would have a tough time cracking the rotation of any of those aforementioned clubs and he certainly doesn’t belong on this one. Yeah, he threw an ok game against the Cubbies upon his return off the DL but so what. Lots of folks look good at against that Wrigley/Cubbies combo. Fact is, Zito is a stiff of the highest order. He’s struck out nine in his 20 innings of work thus far while walking 10. His fastball tops out at 84 MPH and his two other pitches, the change and curve are both about as average as it gets. So, yeah, he fooled a few Cubbies, but he's not not going to fool the Tigers. This is a guy with no upside and less skill and if the Tigers don’t score at least six runs in this game it’ll be a big surprise. Max Scherzer is a quality pitcher and a quality pitcher against the Giants is pure gold because they scratch and claw to score anything on bad pitchers. Play: Detroit –1½ +128 (Risking 2 units).

San Diego +117 over SEATTLE Pinnacle
Regardless of whether or not these bets win they’re a good bet simply because at worst they’re a 50/50 proposition. In other words, if you were offered +117 on a coin toss, you would make that wager all day long for as long as you could and that’s essentially what we’re doing here by backing the Padres and Clayton Kershaw. Over time, these are winning propositions. Coty Luebke is definitely pitching under the radar. He’s actually appeared in 30 games this season with just one start. However, he’s not a reliever, he’s a starter, always has been and he may never lose his spot in the rotation again. Luebke has outstanding stuff with great control. He has 49 K’s in 44 IP with just 17 walks. He has a 0.95 WHIP to go along with a 2.86 ERA, which isn’t far off his xERA of 3.13. Luebke also has a solid GB/LD/FB profile of 45%/13%/41% and the Mariners are going to be hard pressed to muster anything off him. Doug Fister is having a very good year. He’s a soft-tosser with strong control, so his margin for error is slight. His 3.18 ERA and 1.20 WHIP have been helped by his home field somewhat, but he does have a 3.55 ERA on the road, so his split isn't that extreme. Having said that, his numbers are largely the product of an elevated strand rate (77%). His projected production, including a low expected win total, due in part to Seattle's putrid offense, make him a player on whom you should probably pass up on when being asked to lay a price. Let’s hop this one comes up tails. Play: San Diego +117 (Risking 2 units).

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Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 6* (Regular Play) is on the Philadelphia Phillies Money Line at 1:07 ET

The Bulldog’s Five Factor Analysis: 1) As long-time followers know, mostly totals are played during the MLB season. When a side is invested in it is never a big favorite and it is very rarely a moderately priced favorite. The only exception to this is when a sizable favorite, like the Phillies today, offers simply too many big advantages to ignore! The Phillies are poised for a rout of the Blue Jays today after notching a 7-6 comeback win that broke the back of the Blue Jays yesterday. 2) With yesterday’s win, the Phillies have now won 15 of their last 20 games. Conversely, with yesterday’s loss, the Blue Jays have now lost 13 of their last 21 games. This is simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions right now and the pitching edge here makes the Phillies well worth the price. 3) Carlos Villanueva shows the markets a nice 4-1 record on the season but he’s allowed 9 runs (8 earned) on 15 hits in just 11 innings of work in his two home starts this season. In his last five starts overall, Villanueva has struck out just 14 batters. Contrast that with Roy Halladay who has 123 strikeouts in his 17 starts this season. 4) Halladay is 10-3 so far this season with the Phillies and the big right-hander has a miniscule 1.04 WHIP. He’s been amazing to say the least and Halladay gets a chance to show his impressive work in a familiar place once again Saturday afternoon. A long-time Blue Jay, Halladay will be at his best once again in Toronto as he shows the home crowd what they are missing since Halladay became a Phillie. Halladay has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts and domination can be expected again today. 5) Look for the Blue Jays to drop to a pathetic 10-23 in day games this season while the Phillies improve to a stellar 20-7 in day games with yet another victory today. Also, Philadelphia is already 27-14 this season when playing against teams with a losing record while Toronto is 16-22 this season when playing against teams with a winning record. Look for those trends to continue today. Play the Philadelphia Phillies on the Money Line as a 6* Regular Play Selection.

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Silver Key

Free Pick for Saturday ML Baseball

ATLANTA HUDSON -R -175 over Baltimore

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MMA Professor - UFC 132

Dominick Cruz (-145) over Uriah Faber
Wanderlei Silva (-150) over Chris Leben
Carlos Condit (even) over Dong Hyun Kim

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GC MLB PLay

Saturday 92% MLB Totals System averages 11.5 runs per game + 90% MLB Dog the Week System Side lead solid card. MLB on a 41-20 Run. Free MLB play below.

On Saturday the MLB Free Play is on the Under in the Baltimore at Atlanta game. Rotation numbers 965/966 at 7:10 eastern. This game fits a nice totals system here tonight that plays to... the under for home favorites from -140 to -195 with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a win of 2 or more runs vs an opponent off a road dog loss and had 2 or less hits. Atlanta has T. Hudson going and he has pitched under in his last three with a 1.00 ERA. Baltimore counters with J. Arrieta. In his last 3 starts Arrrieta has a 2.89 ERA. The Braves are hitting just .228 in Inter league games. Look for this one to play under the total tonight. On Saturday there are 2 Top Plays going a 92% Totals system that averages 11.5 runs per game and a 90% Dog system. MLB on a 41-20 run. Jump on and cash out. For the free play take the Baltimore and Atlanta under the total tonight. GC

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CAROLINA SPORTS CONNECTION

7:05pm - Boston Red Sox -140 @ Houston Astros
Risk 7.0 units to Win 5.0 units

9:05pm - Arizona Diamondbacks +115 @ Oakland A's
Risk 6.0 to Win 6.9 units

9:05pm - LA Dodgers @ LA Angels -125
Risk 7.5 units to Win 6.0 units

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Lines2Win

7/2 Plays

Orioles ML +159 (small)
Mets/Yanks Over 8.5 -105 (Med)
Arizona ML +110 (Small)

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Stan Lisowski

3* Chicago White Sox -115

Sox are 14-7 in this series with the Cubs. Humber is on the hill for the pale-hose and he has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 of his past 10 outings. Cubs have dropped 9 of 13 games vs. the American League this season.

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Saturday Comps.

Winner Line-Cleveland
OTM-UNDER Dodgers
Bon Harris-San Diego
Kevin Kennedy-Pittsburgh(doesn't specify which game-take your pick I guess).

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Gill Alexander 7/2

Dorky Brewers -115

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11TH HOUR PLAYS

3u 954 TOR+148 1st 5.
3u TOR+148 game.
3u TOR/PHI over 7.
Next Release by 3:20E.

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GoodFella | MLB ML - Saturday, Jul 2 2011 3:35PM
ML 982 WAS (-153) SportBet vs 981 PIT single-dime bet

Analysis: 1 UNIT on the NATIONALS -153

List Lannan


GoodFella | MLB Total - Saturday, Jul 2 2011 8:05PM
971 FLA / 972 TEX OVER 10.5 Bodog single-dime bet

Analysis: 1 UNIT on FLORIDA/TEXAS OVER 10.5

Action