7-4-11

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MONDAY BETTORS' TIPS AND NOTES
Monday's Betting Tips: Cubs Scratch Dempster
By Covers Staff



Who's Hot

MLB: Tampa Bay has won 10 of its last 14 overall.

MLB: Philadelphia is 21-7 in its last 28 games against Florida.

Who’s Not

MLB: Houston is 3-9 in Brett Myers’ last 12 starts.

MLB: Arizona has won three of its last 11 meetings with Milwaukee.

Key Stat

2-5: The Washington Nationals have won just two games since Davey Johnson assumed managerial duties. The Nats were red-hot before Johnson took the help but have been outscored 35-19 since then.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Jose Reyes, New York Mets – Reyes is dealing with a Grade 1 hamstring strain and is expected to sit out Monday’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Reyes, who is hitting .354 with 30 stolen bases, doesn’t think he’ll miss more than a few days. The Mets are pegged as +100 underdogs against the Dodgers.

Game Of The Day

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians (+115, 8.5)

Notable Quotable

“The most important contest for me is Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. For months, that’s the only thing I’m willing to think about. The first thing I see when I get up in the morning is what I have written on my mirror: Winning is the only option.” – Competitive eater Joey Chestnut on Monday’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Chestnut is set as a big -500 favorite.

Tips And Notes

The Chicago Cubs have scratched Ryan Dempster from his scheduled start and will call up Casey Coleman to take the ball Monday against Washington. Dempster was hospitalized for a stomach virus Saturday and is also dealing with come back issues. The Cubs are 8-2 in his last 10 starts and will now have to hope some time in the minors did Coleman well. He was 2-4 with a 7.78 ERA in 10 appearances with Chicago earlier this season.

Already without its top two strikers, Peru may be without its best midfielder as well when the club plays its first Copa America match Monday. Juan Vargas is considered doubtful for the game with a calf injury. Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro have already been ruled up and the word is their replacements are also banged up.

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Lincecum, Giants Entertain Padres On Fourth Of July
By: Willie Bee



San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-210, 6.5)

Interleague play is done, and now it's back to normal in the majors as MLB heads towards the All-Star break. Among the full slate of contests to begin the season's 14th week is an NL West battle in San Francisco between the defending champion Giants and San Diego Padres.

The Fourth of July clash begins at 2:05 p.m. (PT) from AT&T Park with an initial mound matchup of Padres lefty Clayton Richard (5-12, 4.09) against the Giants' Tim Lincecum (10-7, 3.04).

San Diego and San Francisco took the NL West race down to the final day of the 2010 season before the Giants grabbed the honors. The Padres were the surprise club of the division and the NL last year, but find themselves in a scrap with the Dodgers for the division basement this time around. San Fran's biggest challenger currently is Arizona, with the Diamondbacks among the top surprises in the big leagues this campaign.

It's just the second get-together for the two clubs this season, the first a quick 2-game set in San Diego back in early April. The teams split that series, a moral victory for the Giants who dropped 12 of 18 meetings with the Padres in 2010. San Diego won seven of the nine played at AT&T Park, the 'under' also going 7-2.

Richard is white-hot by his 2011 standards, winning his last two assignments after the Padres lost 12 of his first 15 trips to the bump. San Diego's weak offense gets part if not more of the blame. During a 6-start stretch from May 21 to June 17, all Padres losses, the lineup plated just 10 runs in Richard's efforts, half of those coming in one game.

This will be the first start against San Francisco this season for the former Michigan star. Richard faced the Giants five times a year ago, the Padres winning all five of his starts and the southpaw posting a fine 2.55 ERA in the outings. He was 3-0 in three tries at AT&T Park with a 3.43 ERA in 18 1/3 innings, but will be facing a Giants lineup that is a money-making 16-5 vs. lefties this year.

Lincecum is hoping July is kinder than June proved to be, the 2-time Cy Young winner going 1-2 with a 4.84 ERA in six starts last month. 'The Freak' will be making his second start of '11 vs. San Diego and was dominant in the first outing at Petco Park on April 6, working seven innings and allowing just three hits and a run while striking out 13.

San Francisco has won 10 of Lincecum's 14 career starts vs. the Padres, the right-hander fashioning an excellent 2.02 ERA over 93 1/3 frames.

The Giants have a long list of walking wounded heading into the second half of the season. They are close to the return of rookie first baseman Brandon Belt (wrist) and shortstop Mike Fontenot (groin), but are in wait-&-see mode for second baseman Freddy Sanchez (shoulder), the versatile Mark DeRosa (wrist) and left-hander Jonathan Sanchez (biceps).

Catcher Buster Posey was lost for the remainder of the season with a broken left leg in late-May.

San Diego is currently without starting pitcher Aaron Harang (foot) and first baseman Brad Hawpe (finger). Both are expected back after the midseason break.

Sunny skies and mild temps are in the forecast for Monday and the remainder of the 4-game series that continues Tuesday with Tim Stauffer in line for the Padres and Matt Cain the scheduled hurler for the Giants.

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
MLB Run Report: This Week's Best Betting Trends
By Bill McBride



HOT TEAM: New York Yankees
THIS SEASON: 50-32.
LAST WEEK: 5-1.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Indians for three, home to the Rays for four.
THE SKINNY: It wasn’t long ago when the red-hot Red Sox strolled into The Bronx, swept the Yankees and left doubts as to just how good this installment of the Bombers really was. Well, quietly, the Yankees have bounced back nicely. They are winning series, getting timely hitting and as they enter Monday’s game with the Indians, they are in first place in the American League East, ahead of that same Boston team we just mentioned. And here’s some more good news for Yankees bettors. Derek Jeter is scheduled to return from the disabled list on Monday vs. the Indians. Sure, Jeter (.260 average, two home runs, 20 RBIs) is not having a banner season, and yes, his pursuit of 3,000 hits might be a distraction for this club. But the more bats, the better as New York tries to keep the momentum rolling. As always, when dealing with the Yankees, you have to a pay a price each and every time you step up to the window but wins are wins. And as we hit the dog days of summer, perhaps it’s a good idea to keep the Yankees in your back pocket, for those times when you need one of those victories.

COLD TEAM: Milwaukee Brewers
THIS SEASON: 45-41.
LAST WEEK: 1-5.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Diamondbacks for three, home to the Reds for four.
THE SKINNY: Listen, the Brewers have big bats and just enough pitching to probably make them the favorite moving forward in the National League Central. But make no mistake - interleague play is not for them. Milwaukee ran into that aforementioned Yankees train in The Bronx last week, as the Brewers were swept out of New York. Then they were only able to salvage one of three games against Minnesota. That’s a bad stretch for a first-place team with aspirations of playing into October. In four of five losses last week, the Brewers scored two runs or less. And even though they scored 17 runs vs. the Twins, they left without much to show for it. Milwaukee has plenty of stars up and down the lineup, but the truth hurts lately, as outfielder Nyjer Morgan (.331) was the only one of them who owned a .300 or better average on Sunday night. Even in the weak NL Central, that might not be enough to get it done. A homestand against National League competition might be the right elixir this week, but you might want to let the Brewers show you something before jumping back on the wagon.

OVER TEAM: Minnesota Twins
O/U THIS SEASON: 39-40-3.
O/U LAST WEEK: 5-1.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Rays for three, at the White Sox for four.
THE SKINNY: One of the tougher teams to figure out this season, partly because they’ve been so good in the Ron Gardenhire Era, the injury-riddled Twins are showing some life of late. While it may be too late to contend, you might want to have them on your over radar going forward. The Twins scored 22 runs vs. the Brewers over the weekend, and gave up 19 to the Dodgers in a mid-week, three-game set. Those numbers were delightful to over players, and perhaps they might continue. Minnesota has five players with at least 20 RBIs, including Danny Valencia with 42, and its team ERA was at 4.29 through Sunday. That all adds up to some run-filled games and consider this for the upcoming week: In a 9-7 win over Milwaukee on Sunday, Gardenhire had to use six pitchers. If that’s not a tired staff headed into the Tampa Bay series, we don’t know what one is. More runs may be on the way.

UNDER TEAM: San Diego Padres
O/U THIS SEASON: 38-43-4.
O/U LAST WEEK: 1-5.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Giants for four, at the Dodgers for three.
THE SKINNY: If there’s a more non-descript team in the majors, let us know. The Padres are well under .500, they’re on television far too late for most bettors to truly know theirs ins and outs, and they simply cannot score runs. But the latter part of that makes them appealing, at least, to the under buyers out there. San Diego is on a nice little under roll, and with San Francisco and Los Angeles up next, chances are good that will continue. The Padres scored two runs -- total -- in a three-game series vs. Seattle over the weekend and haven’t scored more than five runs in their last eight contests. That’s a tough stretch, folks. Their Sunday lineup vs. the Mariners featured one hitter that was over .300 -- Chase Headley (.307) -- and he was batting third. With all due respect to the player, when Headley is in your No. 3 hole, you have problems. The pitching, however, is still there, and that’s what should peak your interest. Through Saturday night, Mat Latos and the Padres had a team ERA of 3.29. They play in a big ballpark, they have quality arms and no bats. That might just be a decent under recipe for the rest of the year.

[timbob]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Monday’s Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers
By Covers Staff



STREAKING

Brandon Morrow (4-4, 4.56 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays

Everyone knows this guy’s got lights-out stuff, but his lack of control often gets him into trouble. Basically, he’s in good shape if he’s not giving free passes to first base via balls out of the strikeout.

Well, over his last three starts Morrow has walked just five batters compared to 25 strikeouts. Not surprising, the results have been positive for Blue Jay backers. Toronto is 3-0 in Morrow’s last three starts.

"Power pitchers sometimes take a little longer than others to hit their stride and he's clearly hit it," Blue Jays manager John Farrell said after Morrow held the Pirates to one run while striking out 10 in seven innings of work.

Jordan Zimmerman (5-7, 2.63 ERA), Washington Nationals

This young righty hurler must be said to see the calendar turn pages. Zimmerman was absolutely lights out in the month of June going 3-1 with a microscopic 0.85 ERA over the six-start stretch.

He was the ultimate hard-luck loser in his last outing, allowing just one run in eight innings of work but picking up the loss in a 1-0 setback against Dan Haren and the Los Angeles Angels.

Despite the loss, the Nats are still 5-1 in Zimmerman’s last six appearances and the under is 7-1 in his last eight trips to the bump.


SLUMPING

Shaun Marcum (7-3, 3.16 ERA), Milwaukee Brewers

A starting pitcher’s job is to eat innings and give his team a chance to win every time he takes the mound. Shaun Marcum hasn’t been doing either of those things lately.

The former Blue Jays ace hasn’t gotten past the fifth inning in any of this last three starts. The Brew Crew are 0-3 and Marcum sports a bloated 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP (walks + hits per inning).

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HOT LINES

Monday’s Best MLB Bets

Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins (+155, 7.5)

Interleague play was very good to the Tampa Bay Rays. With Sunday’s 8-3 win over the St. Louis Cardinals, the Rays finished with a 12-6 record against the National League.

They look to be a good bet to keep it going when they head to Minnesota.

Johnny Damon drove in four runs on Sunday and has seven hits over his last two games to pace the offense, but his value to this team goes well beyond his play between the lines.

"It's just everything that he does," Rays manager Joe Maddon said of Damon. "We need that kind of influence here. He just handles it as well as it possibly can be handled. The way he goes about his business."

James Shields is another guy who’s handling his business. Shields was just named to the AL All-Star squad along with teammates David Price and Matt Joyce and has allowed only five runs over his last four starts heading into Monday’s start.

We’ll eat the road chalk in this spot.

PICK: Tampa Bay Rays


Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (-130, 9.5)

The Boston Red Sox completed a three-game sweep of the Astros on Sunday and finished their road trip at 5-4 after dropping four out of their first five.

David Ortiz walked with the bases loaded in the top of the ninth inning Sunday to give Boston a 2-1 win after Josh Beckett threw eight strong innings.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays showed a little more pop on Sunday with Eric Thames, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion homering in the eighth inning to push the Jays to a 7-4 win over Philadelphia, snapping Cliff Lee’s shutout streak in the process.

The Jays send Brandon Morrow to the hill and he’s been money lately, allowing just four runs over his three-game winning streak.

Nine of Toronto’s last 11 have played under the total and we could be in for a low-scoring battle at Fenway in Game 1 of this series.

PICK: Under

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Baseball Crusher

Play of the Day:
Braves -140 over Rockies

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Soccer Crusher

Play of the Day:
AtlantaSilverbacks + PuertoRicoIslanders OVER 2.5
This match is happening in United States

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ultimate

cws
nyy
atl

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Arthur Ralph Sports

668- 507 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Mon: Washington -150

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Hondo

Hondo had no problems in Houston yesterday as the dreaded Bosawx came through against the 'Stros to reduce the deficit to 1,470 ainges.

Today, Mr. Aitch will assign Morrow and the Blue Jays the menial task of beating Lackey and the Sawx -- 10 units.

[timbob]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Monday

Astros / Pirates Under 7.5

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Today's MLB Picks
Tampa Bay at Minnesota

The Twins look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 2-8 in James Shields' last 10 starts as a favorite from -150 to -200. Minnesota is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, JULY 4
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Coleman) 15.935; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.693
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); Under

Game 953-954: Houston at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 13.937; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 16.045
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); Over

Game 955-956: Arizona at Milwaukee (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Hudson) 14.433; Milwaukee (Marcum) 15.623
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Under

Game 957-958: San Diego at San Francisco (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 16.335; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.581
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-210); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+180); Over

Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Florida (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Worley) 15.934; Florida (Nolasco) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Over

Game 961-962: Cincinnati at St. Louis (6:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.630; St. Louis (Carpenter) 14.627
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Under

Game 963-964: Colorado at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.804; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.365
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Under

Game 965-966: NY Mets at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Capuano) 16.361; LA Dodgers (Lilly) 14.665
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Over

Game 967-968: Toronto at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 14.940; Boston (Lackey) 15.980
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Over

Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.290; Minnesota (Duensing) 16.051
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Under

Game 971-972: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Pineda) 14.531; Oakland (McCarthy) 15.800
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); Under

Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Cleveland (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 17.491; Cleveland (Tomlin) 15.710
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Over

Game 975-976: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Francis) 14.568; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.233
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-155); Under

Game 977-978: Baltimore at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jakubauskus) 15.074; Texas (Lewis) 13.955
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+170); Over

Game 979-980: Detroit at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Furbush) 16.437; LA Angels (Pineiro) 14.798
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Under

[timbob]

Chuck O'Brien

50 DIME WINNER #3 IN A ROW Dodgers

15 Dime Col / ATL Under

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THE NATURAL HANDICAPPER

15 UNIT* Chicago White Sox -150 ML