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Dave Essler | MLB Money Line
dime bet 960 FLA (+100) Bookmaker.com vs 959 PHI
Analysis: Simply too much sharp money to ignore for my taste buds. A lot like the A's, Florida is super-streaky and we've potentially got them on the upswing, at home, and against an over valued Phillies team. After yesterday's comeback in Texas and Lee's meltdown in Toronto (and then a long flight to South Florida) I think this IS a spot where we can back a team in the first game back.
I'll finish the specifics in a bit....when Florida goes on streaks, they REALLY go on streaks, and they've score 25 runs in the last four games against a decent set of starting pitchers, and also on the road. I do like Vance Worley, but here's the deal. The kids came from the bullpen and has now thrown over 100 pitches in his last two starts. And, of his 42 innings pitched this season, only 12 of them have come on the road, and in those 12 innings he's allowed his only two jacks as well as 18 "other" hits. Add to that the fact that the Marlins have seen him before, and most of the "regulars" who we'd need to hit have had hits. At least enough for me to pull the trigger.
Nolasco hasn't been a prize, but what he has done, for the most part, is keep the ball in the park.The fact that the wind should be blowing in from center won't hurt his chances of continuing to do that.
I am not enamored with the Florida bullpen lately, but the Phillies relievers have not necessarily been lights-out, either.
I really just think the situation calls for a play on the Fish offense against Worley and the travel of the Phillies, who in addition to a long flight had to go through Customs as well. So, so far we have two home teams at even money, give or take, and that's just how I spread the risk around and what keeps us from ever having the brutal days, save the f'n Astros.
dime bet 960 FLA (+100) Bookmaker.com vs 959 PHI
Analysis: Simply too much sharp money to ignore for my taste buds. A lot like the A's, Florida is super-streaky and we've potentially got them on the upswing, at home, and against an over valued Phillies team. After yesterday's comeback in Texas and Lee's meltdown in Toronto (and then a long flight to South Florida) I think this IS a spot where we can back a team in the first game back.
I'll finish the specifics in a bit....when Florida goes on streaks, they REALLY go on streaks, and they've score 25 runs in the last four games against a decent set of starting pitchers, and also on the road. I do like Vance Worley, but here's the deal. The kids came from the bullpen and has now thrown over 100 pitches in his last two starts. And, of his 42 innings pitched this season, only 12 of them have come on the road, and in those 12 innings he's allowed his only two jacks as well as 18 "other" hits. Add to that the fact that the Marlins have seen him before, and most of the "regulars" who we'd need to hit have had hits. At least enough for me to pull the trigger.
Nolasco hasn't been a prize, but what he has done, for the most part, is keep the ball in the park.The fact that the wind should be blowing in from center won't hurt his chances of continuing to do that.
I am not enamored with the Florida bullpen lately, but the Phillies relievers have not necessarily been lights-out, either.
I really just think the situation calls for a play on the Fish offense against Worley and the travel of the Phillies, who in addition to a long flight had to go through Customs as well. So, so far we have two home teams at even money, give or take, and that's just how I spread the risk around and what keeps us from ever having the brutal days, save the f'n Astros.
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