7-17-11

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Twins -140 over Royals

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Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Twins -140 over Royals

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chris jordan

300 stl cardinals - 105

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Chicago White Sox ML
Boston Red Sox RL

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JOE WIZ

DAILY FREE PICK

under 7 runs Oakland and Angels

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NICKEL TO DIME SPORTS

"TOP RATED PLAY FOR SUNDAY"
10 UNIT* MLB* Cleveland Indians -110 ML

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ROYAL FLUSH SPORTS PICKS

GAME #1 - 1:05pm
5 UNIT* MLB* Detroit Tigers -115 ML

GAME #2 - 1:10pm
5 UNIT* MLB* Philadelphia Phillies -105 ML

GAME #3 - 1:10pm
5 UNIT* MLB* Cincinnati Reds -110 ML

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Silver Key

Free Pick for Sunday ML Baseball

TAMPA BAY NIEMANN -R +1.5 Runs, -125 over Boston

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MLB Write Up

Hot pitchers
-- JGarcia is 2-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.
-- Jurrjens is 4-0, 1.03 in his last four starts. Gorzelanny has a 2.70 RA in three starts since Washington changed managers.
-- Volstad is 3-1, 4.11 in his last five starts.
-- Cain is 2-1, 1.59 in his last five starts. Latos has a 2.70 RA in his last couple starts; Padres are 6-0 in Latos' starts if they score 4+ runs, 1-10 if they score less.

-- Humber is 3-0, 2.83 in his last four road starts. Penny has a 3.12 RA in his last four outings.
-- Villanueva is 1-1, 2.45 in his last four starts.
-- Niemann is 3-0, 2.82 in four starts since coming off the DL. Beckett is 4-1, 2.83 in his last five starts, but had leg issues Tuesday and couldn't pitch in All-Star Game. .
-- Duensing is 2-0, 2.57 in his last three starts. Pineiro is 2-0, 2.57 in his last couple starts.
-- GGonzalez is 3-0, 1.29 in his last three home starts.
-- Harrison is 3-1, 2.70 in his last four starts. Beaven is 1-0, 2.03 in two starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Bailey is 0-4, 5.90 in his last five starts.
-- Pelfrey is 0-1, 8.36 in three starts vs Philly this season. Kendrick has a 6.88 RA in three road starts this season.
-- Wells is 0-3, 7.81 in his last eight starts.
-- WRodriguez is 1-3, 5.55 in his last four starts. Correia has a 5.63 RA in his last seven starts.
-- Cook is 0-4, 6.09 in six starts this season. Marcum is 0-1, 6.43 in his last five starts.
-- Hudson has a 5.25 RA in his last four starts, but Arizona is 9-2 in his last eleven outings. Lilly is 1-4, 7.71 in his last five starts.

-- Hughes is 0-2, 10.57 in four starts this season.
-- Gomez is 0-1, 5.28 in three starts, last of which was May 5. Atkins has an 8.22 RA in his two starts this season.
-- Paulino is 1-2, 5.91 in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Florida road games went over the total.
-- Eight of Philly's last nine road games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Pittsburgh's last eight road games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Bailey's starts this season.
-- Four of last five Atlanta home games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Milwaukee road games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Hudson starts.
-- San Francisco's last five road games went over the total.

-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Toronto games.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Pineiro's last thirteen starts.
-- Nine of last twelve Beckett starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Detroit's last eight home games.
-- Five of last six Cleveland road games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Duensing starts stayed under the total.
-- Last five Texas road games stayed under the total.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won seven of their last eight games.
-- Phillies won 10 of their last 15 games.
-- Braves won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Pirates won six of their last nine games.
-- Colorado won four of its last six games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last six games.
-- Giants won six of their last eight games.

-- Indians won five of their last seven road games.
-- White Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Toronto won five of its last six games.
-- Red Sox won 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Twins won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Angels won 15 of their last 20 games.
-- Rangers won their last ten games, scoring 67 runs.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Reds lost eight of their last twelve games. St Louis lost three of its last four games.
-- Mets lost four of their last six games.
-- Nationals lost four of their last six games.
-- Astros lost 16 of their last 19 games.
-- Brewers are 17-31 on the road, 33-14 at home.
-- Arizona lost five of its last seven home games.
-- Padres lost seven of their last eight games.

-- Orioles lost 14 of their last 16 games.
-- Detroit lost three of its last four games.
-- Bronx Bombers are 4-6 in their last ten games.
-- Tampa Bay is just 5-7 in its last twelve games.
-- Royals lost 12 of their last 17 road games.
-- Oakland lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Mariners lost their last eight games, scoring ten runs- they've scored one run in their last three games.

Umpires
-- Fla-Chi-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Cuzzi games.
-- Phil-NY-- Seven of last ten Bellino games stayed under the total.
-- Pitt-Hst-- Home team won five of last six Cooper games.
-- StL-Cin-- Underdogs are 10-6 in last sixteen Everitt games.
-- Wsh-Atl-- 10 of last 12 Reyburn games stayed under the total.
-- Mil-Col-- Underdogs are 6-5 in last eleven Marquez games.
-- LA-Az-- Under is 4-1-1 in Gonzalez games this season.
-- SF-SD-- Five of last seven Hudson games went over the total.

-- NY-Tor-- 13 of last 15 Davis games went over the total.
-- LA-A's-- Last five Bucknor games went over the total.
-- Bos-TB-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Fairchild games.
-- Chi-Det-- Five of last seven Drake games went over the total.
-- Clev-Balt-- Six of seven Conroy games went over the total.
-- KC-Minn-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Tumpane games.
-- Tex-Sea-- Nine of last eleven Johnson games went over the total.

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Sunday
Play Arizona (-150) over Los Angeles Dodgers (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 4:10 PM EST
Los Angeles has lost 9 of the last 12 road games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have also lost 11 of the last 17 games after having lost three of the last four games. Arizona pitcher, Daniel Hudson has won 10 consecutive games as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and he is 1-0 vs. Los Angeles over his career with an ERA of 2.08.

Play Atlanta (-200) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:30 PM EST
Jair Jurrrjens has won 17 of the last 19 home games as a favorite of -150 to -200 and he has also won 7 of the last 8 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Jair Jurrjens is 7-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.78 and he is 3-0 over the last three overall starts with an ERA of 0.86.
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Play Texas (-140) over Seattle (Bonus)
Starts at 4:10 PM EST

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Sports Wagers

Chicago +107 over DETROIT Pinnacle
Is there anything to like about the Tigers laying a price with Brad Penny throwing? Penny has 47 k’s and 35 walks in 110 innings of work and that’s about as ugly as it gets in terms of BB/K ratio for those of you playing along at home. His 2011 skills are, to put it mildly, pathetic and the only thing keeping him afloat is pure dumb luck. Penny is 33-years-old and loves hamburgers a lot more than carrot sticks and has spent 229 days on the DL over the past three seasons. He’s a broken down, scrap yard pick-up and his chances for second half success is as close to zero as any pitcher in the game. Furthermore, the Tigers are seeing BB’s right now. Here’s a team with five all-stars and perhaps the best pitcher in the league and they’re barely above .500. Over its past 12 games the Tigers have scored 37 runs and batted .226. Philip Humber is not exactly a household name but he was a top prospect at one point and he’s having a very decent year. Humber has elite control (27 BB in 107 IP) and he also has a solid 3.10 ERA. He has a nice groundball/line-drive/flyball profile of 47%/14%/39% and it’s been even better (60%/10%/30%) over the past month. The South Side has woken up in this series, winning the first two games of this series and outscoring the Tigers 13-2 after facing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and they should pound the stiff they'll be facing today. Play: Chicago +107 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +103 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
Just like the Tigers have no appeal whatsoever today, the Cubbies have less. Randy Wells has a job only because he plays for the Cubs. If any other team owned his rights he’d be down in the minors or even worse. Chicago is low on bodies in the rotation and they really don’t have much of a choice but to use this stiff. Wells has 22 BB and 32 K’s in 46 IP. He has a 6.80 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP after allowing 58 hits (eight jacks) in those 46 frames for a BAA of .312. In his last three starts against Washington, the White Sox and Royals, Wells has been knocked around to the tune of 28 hits and 16 runs in 16 innings. The Cubs have lost his last four starts and have been outscored 27-15 over those four games. Chris Volstad is just 24-years old and has 31 BB and 68 k’s in 103 innings. Volstad has some horrible surface stats coming into this start (5.40 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), but he owns good command and 50%+ GB%. These marks have given him a sub-4.00 xERA. A high 17% HR/F has hurt him. Six of his last eight starts have been rock solid and in the other two he imploded both times but they were both against the Phillies. Volstad allowed three runs or less in all six other starts. He’s way undervalued here. Wrong side favored. Play: Florida +103 (Risking 2 units).

TORONTO +103 over N.Y. Yankees Pinnacle
Phil Hughes’s fast start a year ago began to fade in June as falling strikeout rate and gopheritis (HR’s allowed) became issues. Late-season time off didn't help much and he still looked wobbly at year-end. Hughes returned to the Yankees rotation on July 6, ending a two-and-half-month exile occasioned by thoracic outlet syndrome, which sapped his velocity and ultimately his effectiveness. Yankee fans would like to forget how awful he was early in the season (16 ER in 10 1/3 IP over three starts). Reports are that Hughes' velocity has returned, and the results have followed, with Hughes striking out 11 over 9 2/3 IP at Double-A Trenton after whiffing 7 in 4 1/3 IP at Low-A Staten Island. If Hughes' arm is sound (and we’re not buying that it is), he could perhaps approach the form that allowed him to win 18 games backed by the Yankees' powerful lineup last year. It is perhaps worth noting, however, that “that form" is that of merely a good pitcher, rather than a staff ace (xERA 4.34), his strikeout rate is down by 2.5 K/9 from his 2009 season, during which he pitched primarily out of the bullpen. This is not an easy park to pitch in with the roof open and the temperatures near or over 100. Balls fly out of here in these conditions and for a guy that hasn’t shown anything at all in over a year to be favored against the red-hot Jays in Toronto is somewhat ludicrous. Prior to losing to Sabathia yesterday (everyone is losing to that guy), the Jays had won five in a row and scored 11, 5, 7, 16 and 7 runs respectively. Carlos Villanueva made a transition from relieving to starting in late May. He has enjoyed considerable success, hurling six innings or more in six straight starts but his success is not entirely supported by his skills. He’s not as good as his numbers suggest but that’s a topic for another day and one you can be sure we’ll get into. For now, this one is all about taking back a tag against Hughes. If these two pitchers traded uniforms today, the Yanks would be a –240 favorite. Play: Toronto +103 (Risking 2 units).

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Keith Glantz

100* Tigers

50* Pirates

50 Giants

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SNIPER PICKS
5 UNIT* MLB* New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5 1:10 pm est

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LT Profits

Royals/Twins OVER 8.5 -105

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Chuck O'Brien

60 Dime Braves -1.5

15 Dime Giants