7-18-11

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Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Giants -135 over Dodgers

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Lockline "Ultimate" Selections

NYY
CWS

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Yankees
Royals

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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

under 9 runs Kansas City and Chicago.

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Silver Key Pick for Monday ML Baseball

Philadelphia Halladay -R -190 over CUBS

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MLB
Write-Up


Monday, July 18

Hot pitchers
-- McDonald is 2-0, 3.93 in his last six starts. Willis allowed two runs in six IP in his first '11 start.
-- Capuano is 5-2, 2.79 in his last seven starts.
-- Halladay is 2-0, 2.03 in his last four starts. Lopez is 1-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Vogelsong is 3-1, 1.49 in seven home starts. Billingsley is 3-1, 1.32 in his last four starts.

-- Baker is 5-1, 2.09 in his last six starts. Swarzak is 2-0, 1.35 in his last three outings.
-- Cobb is 2-0, 1.96 in his last three starts.
-- Buehrle has a 2.88 RA in his last five starts, last four of which are Chicago wins.

Cold pitchers
-- Hensley is making first '11 start; he was 11-12, 3.71 in 29 starts for the '06 Padres, and has made 40 big league starts overall. He allowed three runs in 8.1 IP in two minor league starts this season.
-- Houston lost last seven Lyles starts (0-4, 5.63). Marquis is 0-2, 9.49 in his last three starts.
-- Lowe is 2-3, 5.94 in his last six starts. Hammel is 2-3, 6.03 in his last six starts.
-- Collmenter is 0-4, 5.97 in his last five starts. Wolf is 0-2, 6.30 in his last three starts.

-- Carmona is 1-7, 8.89 in his last eleven starts. Huff is making his first '11 start; he is 8-3, 3.86 in 17 AAA starts this season, and has a 13-19, 5.84 in 38 career big league starts the last two years.
-- Bronx is 2-5 in Burnett's road starts; Burnett is 0-1, 7.15 in his two starts against Tampa Bay this season.
-- Bergesen is 1-7, 6.52 in nine starts this season. Wakefield is 1-1, 6.38 in his last three starts.
-- Davies is 0-7, 9.30 in his last seven starts.

Totals
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven McDonald starts.
-- Seven of last eight Florida road games went over the total.
-- Nine of Philly's last ten road games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in Lyles starts this season.
-- Eight of last nine Lowe starts went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee road games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Billingsley starts.

-- Six of last seven Cleveland road games went over the total.
-- All three of Cobb's home starts went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Wakefield starts.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Buehrle starts.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won eight of their last nine games.
-- Phillies won 11 of their last 16 games.
-- Braves won 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Pirates won seven of their last ten games.
-- Milwaukee won six of its last nine games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last seven games. Giants won seven of their last nine games.

-- Twins won 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Red Sox won 11 of their last 13 games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Reds lost eight of their last thirteen games.
-- Mets lost five of their last seven games.
-- Nationals lost five of their last seven games. Astros lost 17 of their last 20 games.
-- Arizona is 3-5 in its last eight home games.
-- Colorado lost eight of its last twelve games.

-- Inidans lost five of their last seven games.
-- Orioles lost 14 of their last 17 games, but won last two.
-- Bronx Bombers are 5-6 in their last eleven games, but won last two.
-- Tampa Bay is just 5-7 in its last twelve games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last nine games. Royals lost 13 of their last 18 road games.

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Monday
Play Philadelphia (-200) over Chicago Cubs (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST
Philadelphia has won 3 of the last 4 games and they have also won 12 of the last 13 games when playing as a favorite of -200 or higher. Roy Halladay has won 11 of the last 12 games when pitching as a favorite of -175 to -250 and he is 2-0 over the last three overall starts with an ERA of 2.16.

Play Boston (-135) over Baltimore (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST
Boston has won 8 of the last 9 games and they have also won 26 of the last 37 games vs. division opponents. Baltimore has lost 14 of the last 17 games and they have also lost 6 of the last 8 games vs. Boston.
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Play Chicago White Sox (-120) over Kansas City (Bonus)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST

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GC MLB Play

Monday MLB 100% Power totals system averages an amazing 13 runs per game and leads a card that has a perfect system side and a live dog from an 80% dog system. Sunday Card sweeps. Monday radio show info and Free System play below

On Monday the free MLB System Play is on the New York Mets. Game 924 at 7:10 eastern. The Mets fit a system that has cashed 15 of 19 times and plays against road dogs like the Marlins that are off a road favored win and scored 5 or more runs with 5+ men left on base if the total was 10 or higher in that game and the opponent is off a home loss and scored 5 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base. The Mets are a streaky team but have won 3 of 4 vs losing teams in the second half. Florida send C. Hensley to the hill making his first start of the season. He will oppose solid lefty C. Capuano tonight. Capuano has allowed runs in the first inning just once this season. In his last 2 home starts vs Florida he has been solid allowing just 2 runs in 13 innings. If it weren't for the Mets 0-7 record in the first game of a home series off a loss, this game would be unit rated. Not bad for a free play though. On Monday I have the highest rated Total for July backed with a 100% system that averages 13 runs per game. The card also has a perfect system side and an 80% live dog system. Sunday card swept. I will have another free play on Monday nights radio show at 8:05 eastern. Listen online at 88.9 wsia.fm. For the free play take the Mets. GC

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Sports Wagers

Atlanta +118 over COLORADO Pinnacle
Two teams going in opposite directions. The Braves remain the runaway leader for the NL wildcard, despite trailing Philly by 3½ games in the NL East. Colorado is slipping from contention in the NL West, as they’re nine games out. The Rocks continue to juggle their lineup largely without success, with Dexter Fowler and Ian Stewart recently recalled and plugged into starting roles after being banished to the minors after early-season struggles. Jason Hammel’s 4.23 ERA is nothing but an illusion. His strikeout rate is awful and so is his BB/K (41/56) ratio. Hammel is not missing many bats and there’s big proof of that. Hitters are making contact 94% of the time Hammel throws a pitch in the strike zone and that’s a number that should not be ignored. In other words, a swing and a miss occurs less than 1 in 10 times when he’s in the zone. He’s showing signs of fatigue with an xERA of 5.75 over his past five starts. Jason Hammel is a nothing pitcher that’s keeping afloat with very little skills and plenty of luck. Derek Lowe is an extreme groundball pitcher with a GB rate up over 60%. He’s maintained that all season and for about 10 seasons running. He won’t dazzle but what he will do 90% of the time is give the Braves a big chance to win. Lowe is 1000 times more appealing taking back a tag than Hammel is laying one. Don’t leave this one out. Play: Atlanta +118 (Risking 2 units).

PITTSBURGH –108 over Cincinnati Pinnacle
The Pirates are a team that’s easy to root for. They play hard and they play to win. They’re now five games over .500 (same as the Tigers), yet they’re a small price over the Reds with Dontrelle Willis going. Forget James MacDonald, as this has nothing to do with betting on him. Let’s focus on laying less than a dime against an experiment that has no chance of success. In 35 years of player profiles, this may just be the worst skill set ever. We all remember when Dontrelle Willis broke on to the scene in 2003 with a high leg kick and a nasty darting fastball that made him the darling of Major League Baseball. That same Dontrelle Willis is in the Reds rotation thanks to a minor league invite with that same electric smile and a skill set that you shouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. 2010 was a complete debacle for Willis as he wore four different uniforms (Tigers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Reds) in a seven-month span. The ERA (5.62) and xERA (6.44) don't lie. Willis just doesn't have the same stuff he had in 2003. Nobody can survive with a WHIP like that (1.95). The scary thing is that teams are still giving Willis a shot after three years with a WHIP hovering near 2 base runners an inning. It's not easy walking nearly 8 batters per 9 IP, but Willis has done that the last three years as well. Want another reality check? Willis has won just three games in the Majors since 2007. Read that again…. three wins since 2007. Take our word for it. Don't even think the name Dontrelle Willis. You will thank us later. Play: Pittsburgh –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

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SPORTS GAMBLING HOTLINE
REGULAR* MLB* GM1* Minnesota Twins ML

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GOODLYFE SPORTS
Pittsburgh Pirates ML
New York Mets ML
Minnesota Twins ML
NY Yankees ML
Washington Nationals ML

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LT Profits

Red Sox/Orioles UNDER 10 -101

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JACK HOWARD

MLB:
Philadelphia/Chicago Under 8.5(-110) 10 Dimes

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BASEBALL PROPHET

PLAY OF THE DAY
Houston Astros OVER 8

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VEGAS WISE GUY

Boston(Wakefield) @ Baltimore(Bergesen): Baltimore Orioles +130
I do not care who the pitchers are or how terrible the Orioles are. This selection is all situational. Anyone who knows my handicapping style knows that in addition to data driven models, I always look at motivational and emotional subjective factors as well. And many times, those subjective factors are all I need to fire on a selection. And this will be one of those of times where those factors are all I need. I do not need to look at anything else. The situation is this: The Red Sox played a 16 inning game at Tampa Bay last night that did not end until 2am. By the time the Sox got showered, got on the bus, and loaded on their plane to Baltimore, it is likely that they did not arrive in Baltimore until 7 this morning. By the time they got to their hotel and got situated, it is likely that the Sox will not get to sleep until 8am. They now have to get very little sleep, get a meal, and find themselves at Camden Yards probably around 3 this afternoon. This Sox team will be dead tired! Add to all of this, they have to play a team in the Orioles, who after last weeks bean ball fiasco at Fenway, absolutely cannot wait to play them in their home park. As bad as the Orioles are, they will be extremely motivated to play this game!
PICK: Baltimore Orioles +130 ML